July 27 Poll Report

July 27, 2019
 

July 27 Poll Report

            Good afternoon everybody.  I am very pleased to see the interest that you all have taken (my subscribers). . .the interest that you all have taken recently in debating the issues as to how I am doing this and how it should best be done.   Unfortunately, I just do not have a minute available right now to join with you in those discussions and present my view of the issues.  I appreciate what you have to say, and I am desperate to get to where I can say what I have to say, but I probably won’t be able to get to it in any detail until the week of August 19th.  

            I missed the poll report yesterday, speaking of no time available, so I have two days of polling to report on here, two deleted polls and two new polls to incorporate.   The deleted/no longer relevant polls first.  In the poll of June 5, Elizabeth Warren got 46%, Joe Biden 23%, Pete Buttigieg 20%, and Kamala Harris (KAUM a lah, not Ka MALL-a). . .Kamala Harris got 11%.  Focus on that last figure.  Harris getting only 11% in that vote was a terrible performance for her, and removing that vote from the relevant data, along with other things, will cause her to Support Score to vault forward. 

            The poll of June 6 was Amy Klobuchar (31%), Bernie Sanders (29%), Cory Booker (23%) and Beto O’Rourke (18%); that also has been cast adrift, and that also has some effect on where people are now.   Those are big-name Democrats; those are THE big-name Democrats, in the two polls that were eliminated, so the elimination of those polls matters. 

            In the new polls, first the poll of July 25 (Thursday).   Previous polling had suggested that Joe Biden would win the heat with about 33% of the vote, over Kamala Harris (30%) and the sitting President (20%).  In fact, Harris kicked ass in the poll, so we are eliminating a poll in which Harris got 11% and Biden got 23%, and substituting for it a poll in which Biden again got 23%, but Harris jumped to 44%.   The very significantly shifts the power balance between the aging, decrepit, stumbling (Me ‘n Barack) Biden, and toward the younger, more energetic, more competent Kamala Harris:

Scores

Trump

537

Yang

445

Biden

909

Harris

826

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Trump

20

Yang

16

Biden

33

Harris

30

Actual

Trump

23

Yang

11

Biden

23

Harris

44

 

            Not that I am trying to influence the voting or anything.   I don’t love Harris and I don’t hate Biden; I just think he has obviously missed his moment, and also that anybody who hasn’t figured that out by now either isn’t paying much attention or is a member of the Biden entourage. 

            The other poll from yesterday (July 28) involved a less powerful cast of contenders, but Cory Booker did extremely well, beating expectations by a whopping 17 points:

Scores

Schultz

167

Weld

219

Bennet

231

Booker

345

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Schultz

17

Weld

23

Bennet

24

Booker

36

Actual

Schultz

11

Weld

19

Bennet

18

Booker

53

 

            And those are really not MINOR candidates; the four of them control almost 10% of the board.  A truly minor set of candidates is one which controls only 4% of the board.  Those guys have some chips.   Since two days ago:

            Kamala Harris is up 193 points (!!) in the Support Scores,

            Donald Trump is up 30,

            Corey Booker is up 10 points,

            Beto O’Rourke is up 10, and

            Tulsi Gabbard is up 8 points. 

            Howard Schultz is down 9 points,

            Andrew Yang is down 34 points.  Yang and Castro have been racing one another up the chart, actually passing and re-passing one another repeatedly since the June 27/June 28 debates.   What happened to Yang on Thursday was similar to what happened to Castro on Wednesday.  Because he was moving rapidly up the chart, he got matched against tougher competition, and when he got matched against tougher competition, he got knocked down.   That’s the system:  A lot of people will vote for you when you’re matched against Tulsi Gabbard but won’t vote for you when you’re matched against Kamala Harris.   That’s soft support.  That’s what we’re measuring.  We’re measuring the scale of each candidates support against each level of competition, and trying to generalize from those measurements what the OVERALL level of support is. 

            (Digression, argumentative.)  This is actually relatively easy, and the results are relatively accurate, when a candidate has HARD support, as for example the President does.  It is much harder, and much more speculative, when a candidate has Soft, squishy support like Cory Booker or Andrew Yang.    So our results for Trump—understanding that this reflects only my audience, which is a twitter audience—the results for Trump are relatively solid and relatively reliable.   Some of you are criticizing the process because it does not squeeze and expand the support for Trump the way it does for other candidates.   That’s true, but it isn’t a failing of the system.   The system is measuring what is there.   It’s just the nature of the candidate’s support; Trump’s support (and opposition) is relatively "fixed".  Thus, we get more accurate readings on Trump’s support—not less accurate, more accurate.  This makes the PREDICTIONS in a given day less accurate, but the predictions are incidental at this time, of no real significance.  We’re not really making "predictions" here, except inasmuch is helpful in interpreting the days results.   We’re not making predictions; we are measuring support.   Anyway, resuming the run-down of who is up and who is down:

            Elizabeth Warren is down 65 points, and

            Me ‘n Barack Biden is down 109 points.      

            These are the updated Support Scores.  Joe Biden has made the Gray List.  In fact, Joe Biden as of now IS the Gray List:

Rank

First

Last

Support

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1843

2

Kamala

Harris

1019

3

Pete

Buttigieg

999

4

Joe

Biden

800

5

Donald

Trump

567

6

Amy

Klobuchar

456

7

Andrew

Yang

411

8

Bernie

Sanders

410

9

Julian

Castro

378

10

Cory

Booker

355

11

Beto

O'Rourke

340

12

Kirsten

Gillibrand

283

13

Tulsi

Gabbard

274

14

Jay

Inslee

256

15

John

Hickenlooper

244

16

Michael

Bennet

225

17

Bill

Weld

213

18

Howard

Schultz

158

19

Tim

Ryan

136

20

Steve

Bullock

114

21

John

Delaney

112

22

Marianne

Williamson

95

23

Bill

de Blasio

85

24

Seth

Moulton

82

25

Mike

Gravel

81

 

            Thanks for reading.  And thank you all for being wrong about so many things.  It keeps the learning process alive. 

 
 

COMMENTS (6 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
Since when does Sanders have considerable black support?
12:07 AM Jul 29th
 
CharlesSaeger
I'd bet on Elizabeth Warren before Harris, who excites the base more than the more centrist former prosecutor Harris does. The Republicans have figured out that base support is the key; it's only a matter of time before the Democrats figure that one out.

One thing I didn't realize before this week is how much Biden's and Sanders's support overlap, and Warren's and Harris's. These polls oversample sabermetric-inclined baseball fans; Biden and Sanders appeal to groups that aren't in this cohort, both having considerable black support, which is important in the early primaries.

Nobody cares about debates. Quit talking about them. President John Kerry says so.
10:38 PM Jul 28th
 
bertrecords
"Thanks for reading. And thank you all for being wrong about so many things. It keeps the learning process alive."

Perfect! Thanks for keeping the teaching process alive.


9:35 PM Jul 28th
 
LesLein
I agree with Maris. Expect Booker to attack Biden for mass incarceration in the debate. I read that Biden will be sitting between Booker and Harris. If Biden repeats his first debate performance look for a free wall.

Frank has some good points about Harris’s strengths. But she has some disadvantages on her record as a prosecutor and changing positions.
11:03 AM Jul 28th
 
MarisFan61
From left field perhaps, but.....I think that a delayed effect of Mueller's appearance will be to hasten the burying of Biden.

Those who still believe in Biden either didn't notice how he was in his first debate, or think he was just having a bad moment or bad day. I felt that totally aside from the content of how he dealt with Kamala's point, his manner and demeanor at many points throughout the debate were weak -- yes, during the thing with Kamala, but not at all limited to that. Unless indeed it was just that he was having a bad day, which I don't think it was because I'd thought he was showing such signs before that, that's just what he has become. And with another 15 months till the election, that would give him 15 more months not to get any younger.

I realized there was a wide range of how it might be with Mueller's testimony, but I never imagined that he'd be visibly old, or impaired, or whatever it may have been. That's still very much in the air, and I think it will bring greater concern than usual about any presidential candidate who seems visibly old or impaired. I really do hope that Biden isn't 'really really' how he seemed in that first debate, but if he is, I'd expect it to echo Mueller in the minds of many and to bolden their concerns about Biden.
3:31 AM Jul 28th
 
FrankD
If I was to bet today, I'd bet on Kamala Harris to be Dem nominee. She meets all the major requirements for the Dems: liberal, female, person of color. I really think the nomination is hers to lose. And I think that soon she will permanently take over this poll..... here in Iowa, nobody is paying attention yet. But the horde will be here for the State Fair. And come fall, the pople in Iowa will start really paying attention
8:18 PM Jul 27th
 
 
©2019 Be Jolly, Inc. All Rights Reserved.|Web site design and development by Americaneagle.com|Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy