July 27 Poll Report

            Good afternoon everybody.  I am very pleased to see the interest that you all have taken (my subscribers). . .the interest that you all have taken recently in debating the issues as to how I am doing this and how it should best be done.   Unfortunately, I just do not have a minute available right now to join with you in those discussions and present my view of the issues.  I appreciate what you have to say, and I am desperate to get to where I can say what I have to say, but I probably won’t be able to get to it in any detail until the week of August 19^th.  

            I missed the poll report yesterday, speaking of no time available, so I have two days of polling to report on here, two deleted polls and two new polls to incorporate.   The deleted/no longer relevant polls first.  In the poll of June 5, Elizabeth Warren got 46%, Joe Biden 23%, Pete Buttigieg 20%, and Kamala Harris (KAUM a lah, not Ka MALL-a). . .Kamala Harris got 11%.  Focus on that last figure.  Harris getting only 11% in that vote was a terrible performance for her, and removing that vote from the relevant data, along with other things, will cause her to Support Score to vault forward. 

            The poll of June 6 was Amy Klobuchar (31%), Bernie Sanders (29%), Cory Booker (23%) and Beto O’Rourke (18%); that also has been cast adrift, and that also has some effect on where people are now.   Those are big-name Democrats; those are THE big-name Democrats, in the two polls that were eliminated, so the elimination of those polls matters. 

            In the new polls, first the poll of July 25 (Thursday).   Previous polling had suggested that Joe Biden would win the heat with about 33% of the vote, over Kamala Harris (30%) and the sitting President (20%).  In fact, Harris kicked ass in the poll, so we are eliminating a poll in which Harris got 11% and Biden got 23%, and substituting for it a poll in which Biden again got 23%, but Harris jumped to 44%.   The very significantly shifts the power balance between the aging, decrepit, stumbling (Me ‘n Barack) Biden, and toward the younger, more energetic, more competent Kamala Harris:

            Not that I am trying to influence the voting or anything.   I don’t love Harris and I don’t hate Biden; I just think he has obviously missed his moment, and also that anybody who hasn’t figured that out by now either isn’t paying much attention or is a member of the Biden entourage. 

            The other poll from yesterday (July 28) involved a less powerful cast of contenders, but Cory Booker did extremely well, beating expectations by a whopping 17 points:

            And those are really not MINOR candidates; the four of them control almost 10% of the board.  A truly minor set of candidates is one which controls only 4% of the board.  Those guys have some chips.   Since two days ago:

            Kamala Harris is up 193 points (!!) in the Support Scores,

            Donald Trump is up 30,

            Corey Booker is up 10 points,

            Beto O’Rourke is up 10, and

            Tulsi Gabbard is up 8 points. 

            Howard Schultz is down 9 points,

            Andrew Yang is down 34 points.  Yang and Castro have been racing one another up the chart, actually passing and re-passing one another repeatedly since the June 27/June 28 debates.   What happened to Yang on Thursday was similar to what happened to Castro on Wednesday.  Because he was moving rapidly up the chart, he got matched against tougher competition, and when he got matched against tougher competition, he got knocked down.   That’s the system:  A lot of people will vote for you when you’re matched against Tulsi Gabbard but won’t vote for you when you’re matched against Kamala Harris.   That’s soft support.  That’s what we’re measuring.  We’re measuring the scale of each candidates support against each level of competition, and trying to generalize from those measurements what the OVERALL level of support is. 

            (Digression, argumentative.)  This is actually relatively easy, and the results are relatively accurate, when a candidate has HARD support, as for example the President does.  It is much harder, and much more speculative, when a candidate has Soft, squishy support like Cory Booker or Andrew Yang.    So our results for Trump—understanding that this reflects only my audience, which is a twitter audience—the results for Trump are relatively solid and relatively reliable.   Some of you are criticizing the process because it does not squeeze and expand the support for Trump the way it does for other candidates.   That’s true, but it isn’t a failing of the system.   The system is measuring what is there.   It’s just the nature of the candidate’s support; Trump’s support (and opposition) is relatively "fixed".  Thus, we get more accurate readings on Trump’s support—not less accurate, more accurate.  This makes the PREDICTIONS in a given day less accurate, but the predictions are incidental at this time, of no real significance.  We’re not really making "predictions" here, except inasmuch is helpful in interpreting the days results.   We’re not making predictions; we are measuring support.   Anyway, resuming the run-down of who is up and who is down:

            Elizabeth Warren is down 65 points, and

            Me ‘n Barack Biden is down 109 points.      

            These are the updated Support Scores.  Joe Biden has made the Gray List.  In fact, Joe Biden as of now IS the Gray List:

            Thanks for reading.  And thank you all for being wrong about so many things.  It keeps the learning process alive.