July 2 Poll Report

July 2, 2019
 

July 2 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.   It may be said with some confidence that in the debate of last week, Julian Castro helped himself and Jay Inslee and Eric Swalwell did not help themselves.  Often what matters in the debate is not the debate itself but the media narrative that arises from the debate.  I thought that Castro looked like an ass in the debate, frankly, but then, I’m just one person, and I also thought Trump looked like an ass in his debates, which didn’t stop him from winning.  Much larger media figures than myself, and several of them, thought that Castro did well in the debate and have said repeatedly that he did well in the debate and have given him air time and attention as a result of that, and that perception is clearly helping him, which is not to say that it is a false perception; I just had a different one. 

            Anyway, Julian Castro beat Jay Inslee severely about the head and shoulders in yesterday’s poll, and took his lunch money.  In the current round of polls, which will end tomorrow, I have been matching two stronger candidates against two relatively weaker candidates.  In yesterday’s poll Julian Castro and Jay Inslee were the two relatively stronger candidates, and Eric Swalwell and Steve Bullock were the two relatively weaker candidates.  Castro, projected to beat Inslee 38-35 based on previous polling, actually beat him 62-20.   Swalwell, projected to get 14% of the vote, actually got only half of that.  These are somewhat unusual changes from expectation, and it seems fair to conclude that they are a consequence of the debate.  A summary of yesterday’s poll.  . .which actually I have already given you, but in the conventional form:

Scores

Inslee

229

Swalwell

93

Bullock

89

Castro

249

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Inslee

35

Swalwell

14

Bullock

13

Castro

38

Actual

Inslee

20

Swalwell

7

Bullock

11

Castro

62

 

            Castro thus picks up 27 points in today’s standings, which moves him from 15th place to 12th place in the standings; of perhaps more relevance, he has picked up 71 points in the last five days, which puts him on the "green list", the candidates highlighted in green (below) because their scores are up 25% in the last 30 days.  The Green List is now Warren, Williamson, Yang and Castro. 

            Removed from the relevant data was the poll of May 12, which was Abrams (67%), Bennet (19%), Moulton (8%) and Williamson (6%).  Other than Castro the only candidate to move up since yesterday is Marianne Williamson, who is up 8 points due to the removal of the May 12th poll.   She finally passes Mike Gravel, who she has been pushing since June 12.  (Williamson and Gravel are currently being polled and Williamson is slightly ahead of Gravel, so she may be able to stay ahead of him.) 

            Three candidates moved down to make room for Castro to move up.  Jay Inslee is down 13 points and Eric Swalwell down 6 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Stacey Abrams is down another 11 points as a result of the removal of the voting from May 12.  These are the current standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1934

2

Joe

Biden

1096

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1059

4

Kamala

Harris

824

5

Amy

Klobuchar

492

6

Bernie

Sanders

436

7

Cory

Booker

435

8

Donald

Trump

388

9

Beto

O'Rourke

339

10

Andrew

Yang

329

11

Kirsten

Gillibrand

311

12

Julian

Castro

276

13

Stacey

Abrams

265

14

Bill

Weld

217

15

Jay

Inslee

216

16

John

Hickenlooper

213

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

185

18

Michael

Bennet

126

19

Jeff

Flake

120

20

Howard

Schultz

110

21

Tim

Ryan

97

22

Steve

Bullock

89

23

Eric

Swalwell

87

24

Seth

Moulton

83

25

Marianne

Williamson

72

26

Mike

Gravel

70

27

John

Delaney

65

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

 

            Thank you for your interest.

 

 
 

COMMENTS (4 Comments, most recent shown first)

schoolshrink
Inslee was helped more by the Thursday debates than his own debate performance on Wednesday. The same problem that Andrew Yang has, focusing too much on just one issue, will impact his success if he has any chance at all.. Climate change came up very little during the Wednesday debate; on Thursday it was a hot topic. So that should help Inslee, though it might be too late for him to make a dent in the race.
12:20 AM Jul 3rd
 
MarisFan61
I was with Bill and Klamb in how I saw Castro in the debate. I've been very surprised that he has seemed to be getting good notice from it. To me he seemed wonkish, and small, kinda how we might seem wonkish and small if we went on and on about how some great player doesn't show real well on, say, "Gray Ink"....
11:08 PM Jul 2nd
 
Steven Goldleaf
Casey Stengel would be an incomparably smarter President than Trump.

Even today.
5:04 PM Jul 2nd
 
klamb819
Not that I expect this to be any consolation, but I also thought Castro took himself down a peg in the process of taking Beto down two pegs.
His petty smugness somehow turned into intelligent boldness after filtering through the political punditry's embarrassing naïveté. But then, I also never expected forced busing to re-emerge as a burning issue and am now wondering if paisley shirts and double-knit, bell-bottom pants will be next.

I was going to offer some examples of how ignorance is shaping the Media Narrative, but that will have to wait for another day because now I am laughing too hard to continue. I just saw the President answer a question about busing with these words: "That's been something that they've done for a long period of time. There aren't that many ways to get people to schools." Did he think Harris complained to Biden in the debate because he wanted to make her walk to school?

That followed the President's weekend answer to a question about post-War Western Liberalism, which was to criticize the liberal governance of western U.S. cities. Can he really be that clueless? Or is he actually using Casey Stengel's clever tactic of deliberate confusion as a means to avoid answering unwelcome questions?
4:17 PM Jul 2nd
 
 
©2019 Be Jolly, Inc. All Rights Reserved.|Web site design and development by Americaneagle.com|Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy