July 2 Poll Report

            Good morning everybody.   It may be said with some confidence that in the debate of last week, Julian Castro helped himself and Jay Inslee and Eric Swalwell did not help themselves.  Often what matters in the debate is not the debate itself but the media narrative that arises from the debate.  I thought that Castro looked like an ass in the debate, frankly, but then, I’m just one person, and I also thought Trump looked like an ass in his debates, which didn’t stop him from winning.  Much larger media figures than myself, and several of them, thought that Castro did well in the debate and have said repeatedly that he did well in the debate and have given him air time and attention as a result of that, and that perception is clearly helping him, which is not to say that it is a false perception; I just had a different one. 

            Anyway, Julian Castro beat Jay Inslee severely about the head and shoulders in yesterday’s poll, and took his lunch money.  In the current round of polls, which will end tomorrow, I have been matching two stronger candidates against two relatively weaker candidates.  In yesterday’s poll Julian Castro and Jay Inslee were the two relatively stronger candidates, and Eric Swalwell and Steve Bullock were the two relatively weaker candidates.  Castro, projected to beat Inslee 38-35 based on previous polling, actually beat him 62-20.   Swalwell, projected to get 14% of the vote, actually got only half of that.  These are somewhat unusual changes from expectation, and it seems fair to conclude that they are a consequence of the debate.  A summary of yesterday’s poll.  . .which actually I have already given you, but in the conventional form:

            Castro thus picks up 27 points in today’s standings, which moves him from 15^th place to 12^th place in the standings; of perhaps more relevance, he has picked up 71 points in the last five days, which puts him on the "green list", the candidates highlighted in green (below) because their scores are up 25% in the last 30 days.  The Green List is now Warren, Williamson, Yang and Castro. 

            Removed from the relevant data was the poll of May 12, which was Abrams (67%), Bennet (19%), Moulton (8%) and Williamson (6%).  Other than Castro the only candidate to move up since yesterday is Marianne Williamson, who is up 8 points due to the removal of the May 12^th poll.   She finally passes Mike Gravel, who she has been pushing since June 12.  (Williamson and Gravel are currently being polled and Williamson is slightly ahead of Gravel, so she may be able to stay ahead of him.) 

            Three candidates moved down to make room for Castro to move up.  Jay Inslee is down 13 points and Eric Swalwell down 6 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Stacey Abrams is down another 11 points as a result of the removal of the voting from May 12.  These are the current standings:

            Thank you for your interest.