July 3 Poll Report

            Good morning everybody.   Michael Bennet did very well in the poll yesterday, earning 41% of the vote against an expected 28% based on previous polling.  It seems clear that he impressed some people in the debate, and has picked up a little bit of. . .not support, exactly, but acceptance.   A certain number of people now accept that he would be an OK alternative; if he was picked as the Vice President, more people would be OK with it.   You have to start a bandwagon somewhere, and he’s moved a few inches:

            He is only up seven points in the standings, because when you take a third of Mike Gravel’s supporters and one-seventh of Tulsi Gabbard’s, it doesn’t amount to a lot.  No one yet in this race has climbed from the 100 range to become a significant player, but maybe it will happen. 

            Taken off the books was the poll of May 13^th, which was a front-runners poll:  Biden, Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.  The four heavyweights.  You have to remember:  May 13 was not too long after Biden had announced that he was running.  He announced in late April, April 24 I think, and then he had a round of interviews and profiles, etc., and a surge in my poll, as almost everyone does after they announce.   May 13 was near the peak of that surge.  Taking that poll away from him drops him backward, and pushes his leading competitors forward.  Since yesterday:

            Elizabeth Warren is up 65 points due to the removal of the old poll, which actually is not hugely significant on the scale on which she operates.   He number is so large compared to everyone else’s that it naturally fluctuates more.

            Pete Buttigieg is up 16 points, and Kamala Harris up 14 points, as a result of the removal of the May 13 poll.

            Michael Bennet is up 7 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

            Joe Biden is down 55 points as a result of the removal of the May 13 poll.  

            I have some sense that Warren may have plateaued, among my Twitter followers; not that she is in any sense falling or losing support, but that she is not picking up support now at the rate that she was two or three weeks ago, or for a month before that.  I believe that she is the leader in the race—not Biden or Sanders.   Warren will be polled again tomorrow, against Trump and a couple of third-tier Democrats, and it will be interesting to see how she does.  But my sense is that Kamala Harris is the person who is picking up support now.   The numbers don’t really support that yet; Kamala is at 838 now vs. 769 on June 22, but she was in a slow, steady decline before the June 28 debate, and I think she is starting to move now.   These are the current standings:

            What those represent is "supporters per 10,000 voters", so Warren’s 1999 translates to 20% support, and de Blasio’s 49 translates to one-half of one percent support.   But he is doing better in the poll that is currently running.   Thank you for your interest.