June 11 Poll Report

June 11, 2019
 

June 11 Poll Report

            A surprising number of points changed hands yesterday—surprising, in that there were not a lot of points in play given that we were polling tail-end candidates.   The poll really did not go as we would have expected it to go, based on previous polls:

Scores

Schultz

177

Bennet

129

Flake

144

Ryan

76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Schultz

34

Bennet

25

Flake

27

Ryan

14

Actual

Schultz

18

Bennet

37

Flake

24

Ryan

22

 

            Howard Schultz is not actively campaigning at this time, although I expect him to re-enter the race early next year, but meanwhile he is sinking like a stone in the polling, and yesterday got barely over half of his expected vote share.  This is a very unusual shortage; I’m not sure anyone has under-performed by that much in one of my polls.   Jeff Flake is similar; he’s not in the race either and probably won’t be, so his support is also falling steadily.  

            My interpretation of yesterday’s poll, in which Bennet and Ryan did tremendously well vs. expectations, is not that Bennet or Ryan has anything going, but that the other two are basically dropping out of the poll, so the support had to go somewhere.  If this proves to be true, then the gains yesterday by Ryan and Bennet will evaporate over time due to the secondary effects.   But we’ll see; maybe they have developed some actual support. 

            I took out of the relevant data the poll of April 21, which was Harris, 54%, O’Rourke, 32%, Inslee, 8%, and Delaney, 6%.  The main effect of the removal of that poll is to help Inslee; that was his poorest poll performance by far, so he moves up way up when we take that one out.   A total of nine persons moved up or down by 5 points or more yesterday, which is more than usual.  Those nine were:

            Jay Inslee, who moved up by 33 points as a result of the removal of the April 21 poll.  Inslee’s current 223 (2.23%) is a high-water mark for him; he was at 116 on April 29. 

            Tim Ryan, who moved up by 12 points as a result of his overperformance in yesterday’s poll.

            Michael Bennet, who moved up by 9 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

            Julian Castro, who moved up 5 points as a result of secondary adjustments.

            Kamala Harris, who dropped 5 points as a result of the removal of the old poll.  Harris’ 815 score (8.15%) is the lowest that she has been in this poll, a personal low.

            Elizabeth Warren, who dropped 7 points as a result of secondary adjustments.

            John Delaney, who lost 8 points as a result of the removal of the old poll.  Delaney only got 6% in the old poll, but that was still a very good poll for him relative to where he is now.  Delaney’s new score, 58, is a new low for him, and it looks like he will be passed tomorrow by Marianne Williamson, who is in the stale poll which will be removed for tomorrow’s calculation. 

            Beto O’Rourke, who slipped 11 points as a result of the removal of the old poll, and who is establishing new low points on almost a daily basis.

            Howard Schultz, who dropped 14 points as result of yesterday’s poll. 

            Also Jeff Flake, although he dropped only 3 points yesterday, has established a new low for him.

            A total of 169 points changed hands yesterday, the highest total in the last five days, although not really a high total. 

            These are the new standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1644

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1135

3

Joe

Biden

1133

4

Kamala

Harris

815

5

Amy

Klobuchar

504

6

Bernie

Sanders

501

7

Cory

Booker

450

8

Beto

O'Rourke

422

9

Stacey

Abrams

359

10

Donald

Trump

316

11

Kirsten

Gillibrand

305

12

Bill

Weld

264

13

Andrew

Yang

240

14

John

Hickenlooper

238

15

Jay

Inslee

223

16

Julian

Castro

218

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

169

18

Howard

Schultz

163

19

Jeff

Flake

141

20

Michael

Bennet

138

21

Steve

Bullock

99

22

Eric

Swalwell

97

23

Tim

Ryan

88

24

Seth

Moulton

76

25

Mike

Gravel

72

26

John

Delaney

58

27

Marianne

Williamson

58

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

25

 

            Thanks for reading. 

 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

bjames
How does your having four-way contests make it NOT matter whether your participants are a Wildly Unrepresentative group of people.


It doesn't. Being non-representative--which I assume they are--still matters.
6:01 PM Jun 11th
 
peterunger
Bill, As Elizabeth Warren is my own favorite candidate, I very much like how your polls have been developing. But, I have a question to ask about the process.

I probably missed your answer to it in one of your explanatory passages, but I will ask the question anyway: Suppose that the people participating in your poll are Wildly Unrepresentative of the American electorate, of those will vote in November 2020. (Say, most of them think we should not spend anything at all on defense and, after raising taxes very greatly, spend very many Trillions of dollars on making as sure as we can do that there will not be much future global warming.)

How does your having four-way contests make it NOT matter whether your participants are a Wildly Unrepresentative group of people.

This is NOT any challenge or criticism. It really is simple a question.

peterunger
5:31 PM Jun 11th
 
 
©2019 Be Jolly, Inc. All Rights Reserved.|Web site design and development by Americaneagle.com|Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy