June 12 Poll Report

June 12, 2019
 

June 12 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  Since yesterday at this time I have removed from the data the poll of April 22nd, which was Sanders, 53; Trump, 29; Swalwell, 16; and Williamson, 3.  In yesterday’s poll the results were Swalwell, 30; everybody else, 23 each, everybody else being Governor Steve Bullock, former Senator Mike Gravel and Representative Seth Moulton.   Bullock is the clear loser in this poll, because previous polling had suggested he would be the winner; I had him pegged for 29% of the vote, but he got only 23%, which actually enabled everybody else in that poll to do well.   Gravel, pegged at 21%, was up two; Moulton, pegged at 22%, was up one, and Swalwell, pegged at 28%, was up two, which enabled him to win that trial heat.

            Swalwell, however, didn’t have a good day; he had a bad day.   We removed from the data the poll of April 22, in which Swalwell got 16% against Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.  Getting 16% against Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump is actually a lot better than getting 30% against Steve Bullock, Mike Gravel and Seth Moulton, so Swalwell on balance is down 11 points to 86 (0.86%), which is a new low point for him.   He has been trending steadily downward since he was at 162 on April 24. 

            The total movement of points since yesterday is only 65 points, the lowest in the last sixteen days, which is to be expected since we were polling a weak group of candidates.  The candidates polled yesterday control, among them, only 3.44% of the vote, and all they can really do in that poll is steal points from one another, so that doesn’t have a lot of impact, although the group being polled today is even weaker.   Starting tomorrow I’ll start another round and I’ll start with the stronger candidates, but I’ll mix it up a little bit, which I have to do in order to see whether any of the weaker candidates is actually making progress against the stronger candidates.   Thinking of it as a card game, I have to let the weaker candidates play with some chips on the table, just to see what they can do. 

            Only four candidates moved by as much as five points yesterday:  Marianne Williamson, up another 11 points as a result of the removal of the April 22nd poll, President Trump, up 10 points as a result of the removal of that poll, Eric Swalwell, down 11 as a result of the removal of that poll, and Governor Bullock, down 6 as a result of yesterday’s poll.  These are the updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1644

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1133

3

Joe

Biden

1132

4

Kamala

Harris

812

5

Amy

Klobuchar

503

6

Bernie

Sanders

498

7

Cory

Booker

449

8

Beto

O'Rourke

422

9

Stacey

Abrams

363

10

Donald

Trump

326

11

Kirsten

Gillibrand

305

12

Bill

Weld

264

13

Andrew

Yang

241

14

John

Hickenlooper

238

15

Jay

Inslee

221

16

Julian

Castro

217

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

169

18

Howard

Schultz

163

19

Jeff

Flake

141

20

Michael

Bennet

139

21

Steve

Bullock

93

22

Tim

Ryan

87

23

Eric

Swalwell

86

24

Seth

Moulton

77

25

Mike

Gravel

73

26

Marianne

Williamson

69

27

John

Delaney

59

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

25

 

            Thanks for reading, and for voting along.

 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

karlin
As a former political science student I really appreciate the process you are going through on this. I do think that you are onto something (as you usually are) for a new way to analyze situations involving numbers.

I hate to admit that I've never heard of Swalwell, Bullock or Moulton and I would have guessed Mike Gravel was dead. I'm guessing that puts me ahead of the average person on the street who probably hasn't heard of Mike Gravel either unless they live in Alaska and are old enough to know when he was relevant. Juneau what I mean?

Personally, I think it is time for Jon Stewart to get in the race. He speaks the truth, clearly and powerfully.
7:15 AM Jun 13th
 
myersb
Just making sure, Bill: this is a poll solely of your own readers, correct? It isn't meant to be representative of the country as a whole?
12:19 AM Jun 13th
 
 
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