June 12 Poll Report

            Good morning everybody.  Since yesterday at this time I have removed from the data the poll of April 22^nd, which was Sanders, 53; Trump, 29; Swalwell, 16; and Williamson, 3.  In yesterday’s poll the results were Swalwell, 30; everybody else, 23 each, everybody else being Governor Steve Bullock, former Senator Mike Gravel and Representative Seth Moulton.   Bullock is the clear loser in this poll, because previous polling had suggested he would be the winner; I had him pegged for 29% of the vote, but he got only 23%, which actually enabled everybody else in that poll to do well.   Gravel, pegged at 21%, was up two; Moulton, pegged at 22%, was up one, and Swalwell, pegged at 28%, was up two, which enabled him to win that trial heat.

            Swalwell, however, didn’t have a good day; he had a bad day.   We removed from the data the poll of April 22, in which Swalwell got 16% against Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.  Getting 16% against Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump is actually a lot better than getting 30% against Steve Bullock, Mike Gravel and Seth Moulton, so Swalwell on balance is down 11 points to 86 (0.86%), which is a new low point for him.   He has been trending steadily downward since he was at 162 on April 24. 

            The total movement of points since yesterday is only 65 points, the lowest in the last sixteen days, which is to be expected since we were polling a weak group of candidates.  The candidates polled yesterday control, among them, only 3.44% of the vote, and all they can really do in that poll is steal points from one another, so that doesn’t have a lot of impact, although the group being polled today is even weaker.   Starting tomorrow I’ll start another round and I’ll start with the stronger candidates, but I’ll mix it up a little bit, which I have to do in order to see whether any of the weaker candidates is actually making progress against the stronger candidates.   Thinking of it as a card game, I have to let the weaker candidates play with some chips on the table, just to see what they can do. 

            Only four candidates moved by as much as five points yesterday:  Marianne Williamson, up another 11 points as a result of the removal of the April 22^nd poll, President Trump, up 10 points as a result of the removal of that poll, Eric Swalwell, down 11 as a result of the removal of that poll, and Governor Bullock, down 6 as a result of yesterday’s poll.  These are the updated standings:

            Thanks for reading, and for voting along.