June 15 Poll Report

            Good morning y’all.   Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has rocketed forward 37 points in the last 24 hours due to (a) a very strong performance in yesterday’s poll AND (b) the removal of an old poll in which she had drawn only 11% support.  Yesterday’s poll first:

            Expected to get 29% in the poll vs. Bernie Sanders’ 49%, Gillibrand polled almost even with Sanders.   In my 50-poll structure, this poll replaced one in which Gillibrand had gotten only 11% against Cory Booker (30% in that poll) and Amy Klobuchar (21%).  The 37-point move forward for Gillibrand is only one-third of one percent of the voting public, basically, but it comes after Gillibrand had already improved 80-some points in recent weeks.  A month ago today she was at 212; now she’s at 335—a 60% improvement relative to where she was. 

            Other movements of more than 5 points since yesterday:

            Senator Amy Klobuchar is up 6 points due to the removal of the April 25^th poll.   Klobuchar, however, is being polled today and is current under-performing vs. Senator Kamala by a wide margin, so she could be due for a setback tomorrow.

            Senator Elizabeth Warren is down 8 points as a secondary adjustment.   It’s nothing in her case; her score is just so large that it bounces around like the far end of a diving board. 

            Senator Bernie Sanders is down 16 points as a result of his 9% under-performance in yesterday’s poll.

            Senator Cory Booker is down another 17 points as the a result of the removal of the April 25^th poll.   Booker has dropped a whopping 62 points in the last three days due to a poor performance in Thursday’s poll and the removal of two old polls in which he did better.   His score has dropped to 387, which is a new low for him.   A month ago he was only at 405, not far from where he is now, but then he went up for two weeks and now he has come down for two weeks. 

            Also, former Governors Hickenlooper and Bullock have reached new low points for them, although each of them has dropped only 1 point since yesterday due to secondary adjustments.  These are the updated standings:

            The total movement in the polls since yesterday was 114 points, a middle-of-the-road number.  Senator Warren now has more support in these polls than the bottom 15 candidates combined, Inslee through Messam on the list above.