June 17 Poll Report
Good morning everybody. Yesterday’s poll went pretty much as expected based on previous polling, and consequently has little impact on the current standings. This is a summary of yesterday’s poll:
|
Scores
|
Abrams
|
349
|
Castro
|
201
|
Swalwell
|
85
|
Trump
|
282
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Abrams
|
38
|
Castro
|
22
|
Swalwell
|
9
|
Trump
|
31
|
|
Actual
|
Abrams
|
39
|
Castro
|
23
|
Swalwell
|
10
|
Trump
|
28
|
No real news there, except that the problem of Republicans not voting in my poll is getting steadily worse. Removed from the data was the poll of April 27, which was Harris, 73; Schultz, 20; Swalwell, 5; and Messam, 2. Removing that one also did not have major impact, since that is still reasonably close to where those candidates stand today, except that Schultz has slipped a little.
These are the updated standings; candidates who have moved up by 25% in the last 30 days are highlighted in green, while those who have dropped 25% are marked in gray:
|
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Current
|
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1732
|
|
2
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
1192
|
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1162
|
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
842
|
|
5
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
484
|
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
475
|
|
7
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
414
|
|
8
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
383
|
|
9
|
Stacey
|
Abrams
|
350
|
|
10
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
332
|
|
11
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
277
|
|
12
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
266
|
|
13
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
240
|
|
14
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
220
|
|
15
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
214
|
|
16
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
204
|
|
17
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
162
|
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
159
|
|
19
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
133
|
|
20
|
Jeff
|
Flake
|
133
|
|
21
|
Eric
|
Swalwell
|
95
|
|
22
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
91
|
|
23
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
86
|
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
81
|
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
70
|
|
26
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
69
|
|
27
|
John
|
Delaney
|
63
|
|
28
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
49
|
|
29
|
Wayne
|
Messam
|
24
|
Since yesterday:
Eric Swalwell is up 10 points, helped a little bit by yesterday’s 1% overperformance and a little bit by the removal of the April 27th poll. He moves up from 23rd in the standings to 21st, passing Bullock and Ryan.
President Trump is down 5 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Howard Schultz is down 7 points as a result of the removal of the April 27th poll from the data. This drops him from 17th place to 18th, behind Tulsi Gabbard.
A total of 50 points has moved from one candidate to another in the last 24 hours, a very low number. The strongest of the four candidates in today’s poll, Beto O’Rourke, will have to get 45% to sustain his standing, and appears in the early voting to be over-achieving somewhat. Thanks for following.