June 18 Poll Report

            Good morning everybody.  In both the poll that was taken online yesterday and the poll that was removed from the data as being cold data (April 28^th poll), two of the listed candidates were Beto O’Rourke and Bill Weld.   In the April 28^th poll, O’Rourke beat Weld 46-25.   In yesterday’s poll, O’Rourke beat Weld, 53-20.  

            One might think, intuitively, that the removal of this poll would help O’Rourke and hurt Weld in the standings, which is halfway true.   It hurts Weld.  As to why it doesn’t help O’Rourke. . . a third candidate in the April 28 poll, removed from the data, was Kirsten Gillibrand, who got 25%, the same as Weld.  Gillibrand, evaluated by subsequent polls, is much stronger than Weld.   The conclusion of the math is that O’Rourke is no stronger now than he was then; he is (a) merely stronger relative to Weld because Weld is weaker, and (b) stronger relative to the field of four candidates because the field of four candidates yesterday was weaker than the field of four candidates from April 28.  So the removal of the old poll doesn’t help O’Rourke; it helps Gillibrand.

            This is the polling data from yesterday, 959 votes:

            Gabbard and Ryan performed as expected in yesterday’s poll, so their standing in the race is essentially unchanged.  This is the current list; candidates who are up 25% in the last 30 days are highlighted in green, while those who are down 25% are marked in gray:

            Since yesterday:

            Kirsten Gillibrand is up 29 points due to the removal of the April 28^th poll, and has moved from 10^th place to 9^th, passing the inactive Stacey Abrams.   Gillibrand was 15^th in the standings in mid-May.

            Bill Weld is down 13 points due to the combination of the removal of the April 28^th poll and his underperformance in yesterday’s poll.

            Those are the only two candidates who moved by at least 5 points and at least 1% of their score.  A total of 86 points have changed hands since yesterday, a relatively low total.     The candidates polled yesterday control about 9% of the race; those being polled today, only 5.5%.  Anything less than 14% is a relatively weak poll.   We’ll have one more weak poll tomorrow, and then we’ll be back to the top of the list on Thursday. 

            Thanks for your interest.   And a note of thanks as well to Dave Pinto and to Pat Porter, who are voluntarily helping to promote the process.