June 19 Poll Report
Good morning everybody. What essentially happened in yesterday’s poll was that Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper each took a couple of points away from Marianne Williamson. Williamson has been driving upward in our polls, from a very low base, yes, but her standing before yesterday had increased from 31 on May 12—dead last at that time—up to 69 as of yesterday, ahead of three other candidates. She was the fastest gaining candidate both in terms of the percentage increase, and the number of record highs. But she took a hit in yesterday’s poll, which is summarized below:
|
Scores
|
de Blasio
|
50
|
Hickenlooper
|
219
|
Inslee
|
213
|
Williamson
|
69
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
de Blasio
|
9
|
Hickenlooper
|
40
|
Inslee
|
39
|
Williamson
|
13
|
|
Actual
|
de Blasio
|
8
|
Hickenlooper
|
42
|
Inslee
|
42
|
Williamson
|
9
|
Removed from the data considered relevant to the polls was the poll taken on April 29, which was Booker (39%), Klobuchar (35%), Yang (18%) and Gravel (7%). These are the newly updated standings:
|
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Current
|
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1714
|
|
2
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
1181
|
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1156
|
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
839
|
|
5
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
485
|
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
483
|
|
7
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
411
|
|
8
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
374
|
|
9
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
362
|
|
10
|
Stacey
|
Abrams
|
350
|
|
11
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
277
|
|
12
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
253
|
|
13
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
250
|
|
14
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
222
|
|
15
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
218
|
|
16
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
205
|
|
17
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
163
|
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
159
|
|
19
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
133
|
|
20
|
Jeff
|
Flake
|
132
|
|
21
|
Eric
|
Swalwell
|
95
|
|
22
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
91
|
|
23
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
87
|
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
81
|
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
71
|
|
26
|
John
|
Delaney
|
67
|
|
27
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
65
|
|
28
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
49
|
|
29
|
Wayne
|
Messam
|
24
|
Green highlighting indicates that the candidate is up 25% in the last 30 days; gray indicates that the candidate is down 25% in the last 30 days. Since yesterday:
Andrew Yang is up 10 points as a result of the removal of the April 29 poll,
Amy Klobuchar is up 8 points as a result of the removal of that poll,
Jay Inslee is up 5 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, in which he got 42% vs. an expected 39%,
Marianne Williamson is down 4 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Williamson has dropped from 26th to 27th on the list, behind John Delaney, the only change in the order of standings since yesterday, and
Cory Booker is down 9 points as result of the removal of the old poll from what is considered relevant to the standings. Booker was ahead of Klobuchar in every poll report until June 1; now he is 100 points behind her.
A total of 64 points have changed hands since yesterday, a very low number.
I would like to thank Dave Pinto and Pat Porter for voluntarily supporting this effort. I did that yesterday, but there was a glitch with yesterday’s poll report such that it disappeared from the web site for several hours just after it was posted, and I’m not sure anyone saw it. Thanks for reading.