June 19 Poll Report

June 19, 2019
 

June 19 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.   What essentially happened in yesterday’s poll was that Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper each took a couple of points away from Marianne Williamson.   Williamson has been driving upward in our polls, from a very low base, yes, but her standing before yesterday had increased from 31 on May 12—dead last at that time—up to 69 as of yesterday, ahead of three other candidates.   She was the fastest gaining candidate both in terms of the percentage increase, and the number of record highs.  But she took a hit in yesterday’s poll, which is summarized below:

Scores

de Blasio

50

Hickenlooper

219

Inslee

213

Williamson

69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

de Blasio

9

Hickenlooper

40

Inslee

39

Williamson

13

Actual

de Blasio

8

Hickenlooper

42

Inslee

42

Williamson

9

 

            Removed from the data considered relevant to the polls was the poll taken on April 29, which was Booker (39%), Klobuchar (35%), Yang (18%) and Gravel (7%).   These are the newly updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1714

2

Joe

Biden

1181

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1156

4

Kamala

Harris

839

5

Bernie

Sanders

485

6

Amy

Klobuchar

483

7

Beto

O'Rourke

411

8

Cory

Booker

374

9

Kirsten

Gillibrand

362

10

Stacey

Abrams

350

11

Donald

Trump

277

12

Bill

Weld

253

13

Andrew

Yang

250

14

John

Hickenlooper

222

15

Jay

Inslee

218

16

Julian

Castro

205

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

163

18

Howard

Schultz

159

19

Michael

Bennet

133

20

Jeff

Flake

132

21

Eric

Swalwell

95

22

Steve

Bullock

91

23

Tim

Ryan

87

24

Seth

Moulton

81

25

Mike

Gravel

71

26

John

Delaney

67

27

Marianne

Williamson

65

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

24

 

            Green highlighting indicates that the candidate is up 25% in the last 30 days; gray indicates that the candidate is down 25% in the last 30 days. Since yesterday:

            Andrew Yang is up 10 points as a result of the removal of the April 29 poll,

            Amy Klobuchar is up 8 points as a result of the removal of that poll,

            Jay Inslee is up 5 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, in which he got 42% vs. an expected 39%,

            Marianne Williamson is down 4 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Williamson has dropped from 26th to 27th on the list, behind John Delaney, the only change in the order of standings since yesterday, and

            Cory Booker is down 9 points as  result of the removal of the old poll from what is considered relevant to the standings.  Booker was ahead of Klobuchar in every poll report until June 1; now he is 100 points behind her. 

            A total of 64 points have changed hands since yesterday, a very low number. 

            I would like to thank Dave Pinto and Pat Porter for voluntarily supporting this effort.  I did that yesterday, but there was a glitch with yesterday’s poll report such that it disappeared from the web site for several hours just after it was posted, and I’m not sure anyone saw it.   Thanks for reading. 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (1 Comment)

StatsGuru
You're welcome, Bill.

David
4:41 AM Jun 20th
 
 
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