June 20 Poll Report

June 20, 2019
 

June 20 Poll Report

Yang Edges Upward

 

            Good morning everybody.    Andrew Yang had a good day in yesterday’s poll, taking a point or two away from everybody else in the poll; here’s the poll summary:

Scores

Delaney

67

Flake

132

Messam

24

Yang

250

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Delaney

14

Flake

28

Messam

5

Yang

53

Actual

Delaney

13

Flake

24

Messam

4

Yang

59

 

            The outcome is not radically different than the previous polling would have indicated.  I guess Yang took one point away from Messam and Delaney and four away from Flake.   It was a very low-impact poll; only 25 points changed hands yesterday.  The stale poll removed from the data was the poll of April 30th, which was Biden (60%), Kasich (33%), Delaney (3%) and Moulton (3%).  Kasich and all of the position points derived from Kasich had already been removed from the data when Kasich announced he would not run, so that just left the 60-3-3 split for Biden, Delaney and Moulton, and the removal of that from the data had basically no impact on the numbers, although Moulton was helped a little bit by removing that poll.  These are the updated standings; candidates highlighted in green are up 25% in the last 30 days, while those in gray are down 25%:

 

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1713

2

Joe

Biden

1177

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1155

4

Kamala

Harris

839

5

Bernie

Sanders

486

6

Amy

Klobuchar

483

7

Beto

O'Rourke

411

8

Cory

Booker

374

9

Kirsten

Gillibrand

364

10

Stacey

Abrams

351

11

Donald

Trump

278

12

Andrew

Yang

255

13

Bill

Weld

253

14

John

Hickenlooper

222

15

Jay

Inslee

218

16

Julian

Castro

205

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

163

18

Howard

Schultz

159

19

Michael

Bennet

133

20

Jeff

Flake

130

21

Eric

Swalwell

96

22

Steve

Bullock

92

23

Tim

Ryan

87

24

Seth

Moulton

83

25

Mike

Gravel

72

26

John

Delaney

66

27

Marianne

Williamson

65

28

Bill

de Blasio

48

29

Wayne

Messam

23

 

            Since yesterday:

            Andrew Yang is up 5 points.  He was also up 10 points yesterday, due to the removal of an old poll, but he is only up 7% in the last 30 days.   Not dismissing that; most of the candidates in that range are sinking.  Yang is hanging in there, but not really gaining significantly at this point.  He did pass Bill Weld since yesterday, moving from 13th place into 12th, the only position change in the last 24 hours. 

            Wayne Messam, expected to get only 5% in a group of very weak candidates, managed to under-achieve that, getting only 4%, thus establishing a new record low point for any candidate since I started this process, with a score of 23, or a little less than one-quarter of one percent. 

            The 25 points that have changed hands since yesterday are the second-lowest number in the process.  Yesterday’s poll candidates control only 4.73% of the total vote.  Today’s candidates, voting now (Harris, Sanders, Warren and Biden) control 41.14% of the vote, so there’s a lot more riding on today’s poll.  Thanks for reading.

 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

karlin
You are getting close to some word play on Yang's circumcision policy.
8:18 AM Jun 21st
 
337
Yang appeared on Bill Maher recently, the first time I had a chance to hear him speak, explaining how his base income for all would work. Maybe this is a blip in his ability to get publicity--be interested in seeing if this has any lasting effect.
7:46 AM Jun 21st
 
 
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