June 20 Poll Report
Yang Edges Upward
Good morning everybody. Andrew Yang had a good day in yesterday’s poll, taking a point or two away from everybody else in the poll; here’s the poll summary:
|
Scores
|
Delaney
|
67
|
Flake
|
132
|
Messam
|
24
|
Yang
|
250
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Delaney
|
14
|
Flake
|
28
|
Messam
|
5
|
Yang
|
53
|
|
Actual
|
Delaney
|
13
|
Flake
|
24
|
Messam
|
4
|
Yang
|
59
|
The outcome is not radically different than the previous polling would have indicated. I guess Yang took one point away from Messam and Delaney and four away from Flake. It was a very low-impact poll; only 25 points changed hands yesterday. The stale poll removed from the data was the poll of April 30th, which was Biden (60%), Kasich (33%), Delaney (3%) and Moulton (3%). Kasich and all of the position points derived from Kasich had already been removed from the data when Kasich announced he would not run, so that just left the 60-3-3 split for Biden, Delaney and Moulton, and the removal of that from the data had basically no impact on the numbers, although Moulton was helped a little bit by removing that poll. These are the updated standings; candidates highlighted in green are up 25% in the last 30 days, while those in gray are down 25%:
|
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Current
|
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1713
|
|
2
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
1177
|
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1155
|
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
839
|
|
5
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
486
|
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
483
|
|
7
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
411
|
|
8
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
374
|
|
9
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
364
|
|
10
|
Stacey
|
Abrams
|
351
|
|
11
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
278
|
|
12
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
255
|
|
13
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
253
|
|
14
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
222
|
|
15
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
218
|
|
16
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
205
|
|
17
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
163
|
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
159
|
|
19
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
133
|
|
20
|
Jeff
|
Flake
|
130
|
|
21
|
Eric
|
Swalwell
|
96
|
|
22
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
92
|
|
23
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
87
|
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
83
|
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
72
|
|
26
|
John
|
Delaney
|
66
|
|
27
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
65
|
|
28
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
48
|
|
29
|
Wayne
|
Messam
|
23
|
Since yesterday:
Andrew Yang is up 5 points. He was also up 10 points yesterday, due to the removal of an old poll, but he is only up 7% in the last 30 days. Not dismissing that; most of the candidates in that range are sinking. Yang is hanging in there, but not really gaining significantly at this point. He did pass Bill Weld since yesterday, moving from 13th place into 12th, the only position change in the last 24 hours.
Wayne Messam, expected to get only 5% in a group of very weak candidates, managed to under-achieve that, getting only 4%, thus establishing a new record low point for any candidate since I started this process, with a score of 23, or a little less than one-quarter of one percent.
The 25 points that have changed hands since yesterday are the second-lowest number in the process. Yesterday’s poll candidates control only 4.73% of the total vote. Today’s candidates, voting now (Harris, Sanders, Warren and Biden) control 41.14% of the vote, so there’s a lot more riding on today’s poll. Thanks for reading.