June 23 Poll Report

June 23, 2019
 

June 23 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.   Yesterday’s poll went as predicted by previous votes except that Julian Castro took about 10% of the voters away from the dormant candidacy of Howard Schultz:

Scores

de Blasio

47

Flake

129

Schultz

139

Castro

211

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

de Blasio

9

Flake

25

Schultz

26

Castro

40

Actual

de Blasio

9

Flake

23

Schultz

18

Castro

51

 

            Castro’s good day will push Castro 7 points up in the standings, while Schultz will drop off 7 points, Flake and Bill of the Blasios essentially unchanged.   The more significant thing that happened yesterday was the removal of the May 3rd poll from the relevant data, and the way this shakes out provides an opportunity for me to illustrate how the system works.  

            In the May 3rd poll there were four candidates at the time:  Mike Gravel, who got 2%, John Kasich, who got 32%, Beto O’Rourke, who was at 18%, and Elizabeth Warren, who won that poll with 47%.  Kasich had already been removed from the data when he announced he wasn’t running, so that has no effect on us now, and Gravel getting 2% is a non-event, doesn’t really affect the standings for either O’Rourke or Warren.  The only thing that really had any impact on the standings was that Warren beat O’Rourke in that poll "only" 47-18. 

On the morning of May 3, Warren was at 1023 in our system, O’Rourke was at 559, which is total of 1662.  Based on the standings prior to that, if Warren and O’Rourke were to split 65 votes, we would expect them to split 42-23 for Warren.  They actually split 47-18, so that, at that time, was helping Warren and hurting O’Rourke. 

Over time, however, Warren has moved up in the standings and O’Rourke has moved down.    As of yesterday, Warren was at 1824 and O’Rourke at 414.   Based on THOSE numbers, we would expect Warren to beat O’Rourke, in 65 votes, by a margin of 53-12.   Remember, each poll within the data is re-evaluated every day.  We derive new position estimates for Warren, each day, based on the updated standing of O’Rourke, and a new position estimate each day for O’Rourke, based on the position of Warren.   With Warren "controlling" 1,824 points and O’Rourke 414, there are 2,238 points on the board.  If you split those 2,238 points in a 47-18 ratio, you get 1,618 points for Warren, 620 for O’Rourke. 

Well, with Warren now setting at 1,824, a position estimate of 1,618 is now HURTING Warren.  With O’Rourke now setting at 414, a position estimate of 620 is now helping him.  It is now the BEST position estimate in his group of 19 position estimates, derived from the seven "current" polls in which he has been included. 

 That poll was helping push Warren upward at that time, but it is now holding Warren back and holding O’Rourke up.  Thus, when we remove that poll from the data now considered current and relevant, Warren’s score jerks forward, and O’Rourke’s falls back.   These are the updated standings, with green highlighting indicate the three candidates (all women) who have moved up by at least 25% in the last 30 days, and gray shading indicating the seven candidates who have dropped by 25% or more in the last 30 days:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1868

2

Joe

Biden

1159

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1150

4

Kamala

Harris

770

5

Amy

Klobuchar

479

6

Bernie

Sanders

434

7

Cory

Booker

406

8

Beto

O'Rourke

380

9

Stacey

Abrams

359

10

Donald

Trump

337

11

Kirsten

Gillibrand

319

12

Bill

Weld

242

13

Andrew

Yang

239

14

John

Hickenlooper

234

15

Jay

Inslee

221

16

Julian

Castro

218

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

165

18

Michael

Bennet

135

19

Howard

Schultz

132

20

Jeff

Flake

127

21

Eric

Swalwell

99

22

Steve

Bullock

91

23

Tim

Ryan

85

24

Seth

Moulton

85

25

Mike

Gravel

72

26

Marianne

Williamson

64

27

John

Delaney

63

28

Bill

de Blasio

48

29

Wayne

Messam

20

 

 

            Since yesterday:

            Elizabeth Warren is up 44 points as a result of the removal of the May 3rd poll.   Her current score is a new high for her, and for anyone. 

            Julian Castro is up 7 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

            Bernie Sanders is down 6 points as a secondary adjustment.

            Howard Schultz is down 7 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Schultz has dropped from 18th to 19th, behind Michael Bennet.

            Beto O’Rourke is down 34 points as a result of the removal of the May 3rd poll, and O’Rourke has dropped from 7th to 8th in the standings, behind Stacey Abrams.   

O’Rourke’s current score, 380, is a new low point for him in the standings, as are the current scores for Schultz and Bernie Sanders.   Thanks for reading; waiting for June 27. 

 
 

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