June 23 Poll Report

            Good morning everybody.   Yesterday’s poll went as predicted by previous votes except that Julian Castro took about 10% of the voters away from the dormant candidacy of Howard Schultz:

            Castro’s good day will push Castro 7 points up in the standings, while Schultz will drop off 7 points, Flake and Bill of the Blasios essentially unchanged.   The more significant thing that happened yesterday was the removal of the May 3^rd poll from the relevant data, and the way this shakes out provides an opportunity for me to illustrate how the system works.  

            In the May 3^rd poll there were four candidates at the time:  Mike Gravel, who got 2%, John Kasich, who got 32%, Beto O’Rourke, who was at 18%, and Elizabeth Warren, who won that poll with 47%.  Kasich had already been removed from the data when he announced he wasn’t running, so that has no effect on us now, and Gravel getting 2% is a non-event, doesn’t really affect the standings for either O’Rourke or Warren.  The only thing that really had any impact on the standings was that Warren beat O’Rourke in that poll "only" 47-18. 

On the morning of May 3, Warren was at 1023 in our system, O’Rourke was at 559, which is total of 1662.  Based on the standings prior to that, if Warren and O’Rourke were to split 65 votes, we would expect them to split 42-23 for Warren.  They actually split 47-18, so that, at that time, was helping Warren and hurting O’Rourke. 

Over time, however, Warren has moved up in the standings and O’Rourke has moved down.    As of yesterday, Warren was at 1824 and O’Rourke at 414.   Based on THOSE numbers, we would expect Warren to beat O’Rourke, in 65 votes, by a margin of 53-12.   Remember, each poll within the data is re-evaluated every day.  We derive new position estimates for Warren, each day, based on the updated standing of O’Rourke, and a new position estimate each day for O’Rourke, based on the position of Warren.   With Warren "controlling" 1,824 points and O’Rourke 414, there are 2,238 points on the board.  If you split those 2,238 points in a 47-18 ratio, you get 1,618 points for Warren, 620 for O’Rourke. 

Well, with Warren now setting at 1,824, a position estimate of 1,618 is now HURTING Warren.  With O’Rourke now setting at 414, a position estimate of 620 is now helping him.  It is now the BEST position estimate in his group of 19 position estimates, derived from the seven "current" polls in which he has been included. 

 That poll was helping push Warren upward at that time, but it is now holding Warren back and holding O’Rourke up.  Thus, when we remove that poll from the data now considered current and relevant, Warren’s score jerks forward, and O’Rourke’s falls back.   These are the updated standings, with green highlighting indicate the three candidates (all women) who have moved up by at least 25% in the last 30 days, and gray shading indicating the seven candidates who have dropped by 25% or more in the last 30 days:

            Since yesterday:

            Elizabeth Warren is up 44 points as a result of the removal of the May 3^rd poll.   Her current score is a new high for her, and for anyone. 

            Julian Castro is up 7 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

            Bernie Sanders is down 6 points as a secondary adjustment.

            Howard Schultz is down 7 points as a result of yesterday’s poll, and Schultz has dropped from 18^th to 19^th, behind Michael Bennet.

            Beto O’Rourke is down 34 points as a result of the removal of the May 3^rd poll, and O’Rourke has dropped from 7^th to 8^th in the standings, behind Stacey Abrams.   

O’Rourke’s current score, 380, is a new low point for him in the standings, as are the current scores for Schultz and Bernie Sanders.   Thanks for reading; waiting for June 27.