June 30 Poll Report

June 30, 2019
 

June 30 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  The poll yesterday essentially confirmed expectations for the leading candidates and confirmed (as we all knew) that Beto is losing his grip on his audience.  This is a summary of that poll:

Scores

Sanders

432

Weld

204

Klobuchar

492

O'Rourke

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Sanders

29

Weld

14

Klobuchar

33

O'Rourke

25

Actual

Sanders

30

Weld

17

Klobuchar

37

O'Rourke

16

 

            The poll also provides another indication that a few Republicans may be rejoining my voting group, although we couldn’t say yet that that is a confirmed trend; this would be the third indication that that was true.  Yesterday’s poll didn’t really change the numbers for either Klobuchar or Sanders.  We got larger effects from the removal of the data from the voting of May 10th, which was Warren (71%), Hickenlooper (18%), Castro (7%) and Moulton (4%).   The largest effect of taking that poll out of the data is that Hickenlooper goes down and Castro goes up.   Since yesterday:

            Elizabeth Warren is up 28 points, which is actually not a meaningful change given her high standing,

            Julian Castro is up 23 points as a result of the removal of the May 10th poll, and not in any way connected to his performance in the Tuesday night debate.

            Bill Weld is up 10 points as a result of yesterday’s poll. 

            John Hickenlooper is down 28 points as a result of the removal of the May 10th poll.  Hickenlooper on May 10 got 18% in a group which also involved Elizabeth Warren.  It is clear that if we polled those two together now, Hickenlooper would almost certainly be in single digits, so removing the old poll from the data adjusts his number downward. 

            Beto O’Rourke is down 32 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.   I had Beto at 565 on May 28, just 33 days ago.  Walking it forward 8 days at a time, he was down to 465 on June 5, 424 on June 13, 405 on June 21, and now down to 339. 

            These are the current standings.  I use green highlighting for those who are up 25% in the last 30 days, and gray highlighting for those who are down 25% in the last 30 days:

 

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1942

2

Joe

Biden

1098

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1067

4

Kamala

Harris

834

5

Amy

Klobuchar

497

6

Bernie

Sanders

437

7

Cory

Booker

423

8

Donald

Trump

391

9

Beto

O'Rourke

339

10

Kirsten

Gillibrand

324

11

Stacey

Abrams

312

12

Andrew

Yang

297

13

Julian

Castro

247

14

Jay

Inslee

227

15

Bill

Weld

214

16

John

Hickenlooper

212

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

175

18

Michael

Bennet

130

19

Jeff

Flake

117

20

Howard

Schultz

107

21

Eric

Swalwell

92

22

Steve

Bullock

89

23

Tim

Ryan

88

24

Seth

Moulton

82

25

Mike

Gravel

70

26

Marianne

Williamson

63

27

John

Delaney

60

28

Bill

de Blasio

46

 

            First indication is that the debate on Tuesday didn’t really do much for either Klobuchar or Sanders, although it may have helped Klobuchar a little bit.  Klobuchar is not the red hot candidate, but she was at 368 on May 14th and is at 497 now.   If Biden’s support were to fade quickly, Klobuchar is one of the candidates who might benefit most from that. 

            Looking forward just a little bit, this is the predicted result for the poll which is currently running:

Scores

Moulton

82

Ryan

88

Booker

423

Gillibrand

324

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Moulton

9

Ryan

10

Booker

46

Gillibrand

35

 

            Based on the voting so far Booker is doing much better than that, so he may have gained some as a result of the Wednesday night debate, or he may be up as a result of Gillibrand wasting her debate time harping endlessly about reproductive rights. 

            Also, it is clear that in the next two days, Stacey Abrams’ number will head sharply south.  Abrams was in the polls of May 11 and May 12, which will be removed from the data next, and did very, very well in both polls, so removing those from the system will knock her down.

            Thank you for your interest.

 

 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

klamb819
I was, too, although I have serious concerns about Booker. I like the things he says, but I've come to accept that what a candidate says is far less important than how he says it. (I've known this intellectually since at least 2000, on the night of the first Bush-Gore debate, when I turned to my wife and said, "He's making Bush the President" as we watched Gore sigh his way out if the lead. But even as I knew that lesson to be true, I did not accept its truth until the White House tenant became a chronic fabulist who had persuasively played the fictitious television role of a successful businessman.

So this is the concern I have about Booker: Even though I like the things he says, I'm afraid there are too many occasions when he says those things in the manner of an over-caffeinated high school coach at halftime.
4:56 PM Jun 30th
 
MarisFan61
(I think you said Tuesday instead of Thursday; it was instead of something.)

Hey -- I'll go halfies with you if we can buy an "edit" function for this section! :-)

I've been surprised that Booker doesn't seem much to have caught on in general since his debate performance, which I thought was spectacular.
I'll be interested to see if he elevates further in this polling.
1:54 PM Jun 30th
 
 
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