June 30 Poll Report

            Good morning everybody.  The poll yesterday essentially confirmed expectations for the leading candidates and confirmed (as we all knew) that Beto is losing his grip on his audience.  This is a summary of that poll:

            The poll also provides another indication that a few Republicans may be rejoining my voting group, although we couldn’t say yet that that is a confirmed trend; this would be the third indication that that was true.  Yesterday’s poll didn’t really change the numbers for either Klobuchar or Sanders.  We got larger effects from the removal of the data from the voting of May 10^th, which was Warren (71%), Hickenlooper (18%), Castro (7%) and Moulton (4%).   The largest effect of taking that poll out of the data is that Hickenlooper goes down and Castro goes up.   Since yesterday:

            Elizabeth Warren is up 28 points, which is actually not a meaningful change given her high standing,

            Julian Castro is up 23 points as a result of the removal of the May 10^th poll, and not in any way connected to his performance in the Tuesday night debate.

            Bill Weld is up 10 points as a result of yesterday’s poll. 

            John Hickenlooper is down 28 points as a result of the removal of the May 10^th poll.  Hickenlooper on May 10 got 18% in a group which also involved Elizabeth Warren.  It is clear that if we polled those two together now, Hickenlooper would almost certainly be in single digits, so removing the old poll from the data adjusts his number downward. 

            Beto O’Rourke is down 32 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.   I had Beto at 565 on May 28, just 33 days ago.  Walking it forward 8 days at a time, he was down to 465 on June 5, 424 on June 13, 405 on June 21, and now down to 339. 

            These are the current standings.  I use green highlighting for those who are up 25% in the last 30 days, and gray highlighting for those who are down 25% in the last 30 days:

            First indication is that the debate on Tuesday didn’t really do much for either Klobuchar or Sanders, although it may have helped Klobuchar a little bit.  Klobuchar is not the red hot candidate, but she was at 368 on May 14^th and is at 497 now.   If Biden’s support were to fade quickly, Klobuchar is one of the candidates who might benefit most from that. 

            Looking forward just a little bit, this is the predicted result for the poll which is currently running:

            Based on the voting so far Booker is doing much better than that, so he may have gained some as a result of the Wednesday night debate, or he may be up as a result of Gillibrand wasting her debate time harping endlessly about reproductive rights. 

            Also, it is clear that in the next two days, Stacey Abrams’ number will head sharply south.  Abrams was in the polls of May 11 and May 12, which will be removed from the data next, and did very, very well in both polls, so removing those from the system will knock her down.

            Thank you for your interest.