June 9 Poll Report

June 9, 2019
 

June 9 Poll Report

 

            In yesterday’s poll Kirsten Gillibrand quite significantly outperformed expectations based on previous polling:

Scores

Yang

237

Gillibrand

282

Weld

283

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Yang

30

Gillibrand

35

Weld

35

Actual

Yang

33

Gillibrand

45

Weld

22

 

            And I removed from the data the poll of April 19, which was:

            Buttigieg       65

            Klobuchar     19

            Flake              10

            Gravel              6

 

            These are the updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1649

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1136

3

Joe

Biden

1135

4

Kamala

Harris

820

5

Bernie

Sanders

507

6

Amy

Klobuchar

505

7

Cory

Booker

455

8

Beto

O'Rourke

434

9

Stacey

Abrams

364

10

Donald

Trump

314

11

Kirsten

Gillibrand

292

12

Bill

Weld

268

13

Andrew

Yang

242

14

John

Hickenlooper

234

15

Julian

Castro

205

16

Jay

Inslee

187

17

Howard

Schultz

177

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

170

19

Jeff

Flake

163

20

Michael

Bennet

129

21

Steve

Bullock

97

22

Eric

Swalwell

94

23

Seth

Moulton

76

24

Tim

Ryan

76

25

Mike

Gravel

70

26

John

Delaney

66

27

Marianne

Williamson

59

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

26

 

            The point totals changing hands yesterday were only 108, which is the lowest number in five days, but they seem more significant (and may actually be more significant) because most of the people gaining and losing are relatively minor candidates, thus making relatively larger steps:

            Pete Buttigieg lost 7 points, which is really nothing.

            Amy Klobuchar picked up 25 points, putting her just two points behind Bernie Sanders.   Klobuchar was at 368 on May 14, far behind O’Rourke (532 on that date), Booker (404), Hickenlooper (448) and Stacey Abrams, who entered the polling list on May 15 at 548.   She has passed all of these people, and seems poised now to pass Bernie Sanders in my polls.   As I discussed a couple of days ago, I am concerned that some of Klobuchar’s support in this poll may be the result of an organized effort to get her supporters to vote in this poll.   However, I am not yet convinced that this is true; I’m still on the fence about it.

            Kirsten Gillibrand has had a great week in this poll, moving up 22 points yesterday as the result of the removal of an old poll, and another 9 points today from doing so well in yesterday’s poll.   Her 292 score is her highest ever; her low point was actually May 14, the same day as Klobuchar’s low point; she was at 210 then.   She has gained almost 40% in the last month. 

            Andrew Yang picked up five points as a result of yesterday’s poll; he is near his high-water mark but not quite there.    

            Bill Weld is down 14 points as a result of yesterday’s poor poll performance, but he is still within the envelope of his previous range. 

            Jeff Flake lost another five points today, reaching another new low for him.   He is sinking steadily as he sits on the sidelines; I am still considering removing him from the study group.

            Tulsi Gabbard dropped one point yesterday to 170 (technical adjustment); 170 is actually the same as Flake.  She was at 170 on April 29, her low point, rallied through all of May to go as high as 206, but has now lost all of the ground that she had gained.  

            Mike Gravel lost 8 points as a result of the removal of the April 19 poll data, dropping him to 70.    He was over 100 in all of April, dropped under 100 on May 1 and has been dropping very slowly since then. 

            Thanks for reading. 

 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (9 Comments, most recent shown first)

LesLein
Gillibrand qualifies for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/10/gillibrand-democratic-debate-june-1358884
7:42 AM Jun 11th
 
LesLein
The comment that Biden takes advice from Milano makes me wonder, Who’s the Boss? There’s talk that Trump’s nickname for Biden will be Floppy Joe. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

It’s surprising Gillibrand is doing well. The way things stand she won’t make the first debate. If she starts making gains she’ll be vulnerable to complaints of flip flopping herself. When she represented a district in upstate New York she bragged about owning a gun. As a senator and presidential candidate she reversed her positions.
10:01 AM Jun 10th
 
mradican
shtar,

You mean these aren't fake names? From 16-29 I've never heard of any of them. I couldn't tell you who they are or what office they might currently hold.
9:09 AM Jun 10th
 
CharlesSaeger
Klobuchar is as bland as pablum. (And her dad’s a jerk and a crappy sportswriter.) I think her popularity in these polls is due to the sample and nature of this exercise: not only are centrist Democrats likely over represented, but she’s made outreach to Republicans a point over the years. Republicans will vote for her in these polls since they’re mostly against other Democrats who are mostly to her left, but that’s irrelevant in the real world, since at this stage their support doesn’t matter. When it will matter, they’ll vote for Trump.
8:22 AM Jun 10th
 
BarryBondsFan25
Today The Atlantic confirmed that the Biden campaign is taking policy advice from the deep thinking Alyssa Milano.
10:10 PM Jun 9th
 
shthar
You oughta slip in a few fake names and see what happens.


8:01 PM Jun 9th
 
Steven Goldleaf
You (or anyone) could cast my vote for me--it takes 0 thought on my part. If there's one woman in the poll (not named Williamson or Gabbard) she gets my vote. If there's no woman in the poll, I vote for Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Castro, Swalwell, Biden, Booker, Bennet, or Sanders in that order. If there's more than one woman in the poll not named Williamson or Gabbard, I vote for Harris, Warren, Klobuchar, or Abrams in that order. I've thought long and carefully for about two seconds in every poll every so far.
2:48 PM Jun 9th
 
Fireball Wenz
If Klobuchar looked and sounded like Gillibrand, she'd be in the top four. I'm opne of her voters here, and not part of any organized effort.
12:56 PM Jun 9th
 
meandean
It's possible that Klobuchar (like both Trump and Hillary) is one of those people who does better when she stays out of the news. On paper, she's a terrific candidate: Midwestern, woman, former prosecutor and probably a good debater, has won landslide elections in a state that's less liberal than people think. But at least so far, when she's actually made statements and taken positions, they've been uninspiring and haven't helped.

I think Gillibrand comes off as a generic Democrat. This makes her very matchup-dependent If you put her against a Republican and an iconoclastic near-independent in Yang, it makes sense that she would do well. If you put her against even the second-tier Democrats, I think she'd get virtually no support. (So middle of the pack overall does sound right. But I question whether she has an upward trend.)
12:19 PM Jun 9th
 
 
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