June 9 Poll Report

            In yesterday’s poll Kirsten Gillibrand quite significantly outperformed expectations based on previous polling:

            And I removed from the data the poll of April 19, which was:

            Buttigieg       65

            Klobuchar     19

            Flake              10

            Gravel              6

            These are the updated standings:

            The point totals changing hands yesterday were only 108, which is the lowest number in five days, but they seem more significant (and may actually be more significant) because most of the people gaining and losing are relatively minor candidates, thus making relatively larger steps:

            Pete Buttigieg lost 7 points, which is really nothing.

            Amy Klobuchar picked up 25 points, putting her just two points behind Bernie Sanders.   Klobuchar was at 368 on May 14, far behind O’Rourke (532 on that date), Booker (404), Hickenlooper (448) and Stacey Abrams, who entered the polling list on May 15 at 548.   She has passed all of these people, and seems poised now to pass Bernie Sanders in my polls.   As I discussed a couple of days ago, I am concerned that some of Klobuchar’s support in this poll may be the result of an organized effort to get her supporters to vote in this poll.   However, I am not yet convinced that this is true; I’m still on the fence about it.

            Kirsten Gillibrand has had a great week in this poll, moving up 22 points yesterday as the result of the removal of an old poll, and another 9 points today from doing so well in yesterday’s poll.   Her 292 score is her highest ever; her low point was actually May 14, the same day as Klobuchar’s low point; she was at 210 then.   She has gained almost 40% in the last month. 

            Andrew Yang picked up five points as a result of yesterday’s poll; he is near his high-water mark but not quite there.    

            Bill Weld is down 14 points as a result of yesterday’s poor poll performance, but he is still within the envelope of his previous range. 

            Jeff Flake lost another five points today, reaching another new low for him.   He is sinking steadily as he sits on the sidelines; I am still considering removing him from the study group.

            Tulsi Gabbard dropped one point yesterday to 170 (technical adjustment); 170 is actually the same as Flake.  She was at 170 on April 29, her low point, rallied through all of May to go as high as 206, but has now lost all of the ground that she had gained.  

            Mike Gravel lost 8 points as a result of the removal of the April 19 poll data, dropping him to 70.    He was over 100 in all of April, dropped under 100 on May 1 and has been dropping very slowly since then. 

            Thanks for reading.