Luke Appling and Kirby

              Luke Appling in his Hall of Fame career had 10,243 plate appearances, and drove in 1,116 runs.   As you can easily see even if you are mad at bath, this is a little bit more than one RBI for each 10 plate appearances.   In 1936 he had 617 plate appearances.   He could, then, have been expected to drive in 67 runs, prorating his career RBI to his 1936 plate appearances. 

              In fact, though, he did not drive in 67 runs; he drove in 128 runs.   He drove in 61 runs more than we would have expected him to drive in, based on his career totals.   This is a large number.   It is, in fact, the largest number in the history of baseball. .. that is, RBI minus expected RBI, based on career RBI rate.   It’s the champion fluke season for RBI.    His career high for RBI, other than that one season, was 85.

              Second on the list is a season that some of you will remember, if you are old like me.   Tommy Davis in 1962 drove in 153 runs in 1962.   He never drove in 100 in any other season, either.   His career high, other than the year that he hit .376 with runners in scoring position and batted behind Maury Wills stealing 104 bases, was 89.

              Hack Wilson is next; he was a regular RBI man, although the 1930 season is still a little flukish.   Here’s the top 10 list, the top 10 fluke RBI years of all time:

First	Last	YEAR	RBI	RBIX	RBI
Luke	Appling	1936	128	67	60.8
Tommy	Davis	1962	153	97	56.4
Hack	Wilson	1930	191	136	55.4
Joe	Morgan	1976	111	60	51.1
Carson	Bigbee	1922	99	48	51.0
Jimmy	Sheckard	1901	104	54	49.9
Chuck	Klein	1930	170	120	49.5
Walt	Dropo	1950	144	95	49.2
Edgar	Martinez	2000	145	97	48.3
Roy	Johnson	1934	119	71	47.8

 

              There’s another way to look at expected RBI, which is to project RBI based on (TB/4 + HR), which I call the RBI fill-in formula.   By that formula, Appling "should" have driven in 73 runs in 1936, just six above his normal season.   He beat THAT number by almost as much as the other number.    That’s unusual, but everybody on the chart above, and the next 18 hitters who would be on the chart above, all exceeded their expected RBI based on the RBI fill-in formula.  

              On the other end of that list is Kirby Puckett, 1984.   Kirby Puckett in his Hall of Fame career drove in 1,085 runs—about the same number as Appling—but in far fewer career plate appearances, 7,831.   As a rookie in 1984 Puckett had 583 plate appearances, and thus could have been expected to drive in 81 runs.   He actually drove in only 31 runs.   He missed by 50.   It’s the largest shortfall in baseball history.   These are the bottom 10:

 

First	Last	YEAR	RBI	RBIX	RBI
Kirby	Puckett	1984	31	81	-49.8
Barry	Bonds	1989	58	108	-49.5
Rafael	Palmeiro	1988	53	96	-42.8
Willie	Davis	1968	31	74	-42.5
Edgar	Martinez	1991	52	93	-41.4
Honus	Wagner	1914	50	91	-40.9
Jackie	Robinson	1947	48	89	-40.7
Barry	Bonds	1988	58	97	-39.2
Jimmy	Dykes	1920	35	73	-38.0
Barry	Bonds	1987	59	97	-37.7

 

              There are quite a few rookies on that list, rookies and young players, one old player (Honus).    That’s not unexpected, but if you move on down the list just a little you get a different mix.   Johnny Bench drove in only 61 runs in 1971, 36 RBI short of his norm.   He wasn’t either old or a rookie; he just had a bad year.   Tim Salmon in 2001 drove in only 49 runs, 35 runs short of his norm.     He wasn’t either old or a rookie; he just had a bad year.  

              Edgar Martinez is on both the "good year" list and the "bad year" list.   That happens quite a bit.   Since every player is at +/- 0 for his career, a good year has to be offset by a bad year, or by a collection of bad years.  

              In terms of Runs Scored, the #1 fluke year for Runs Scored was by Nap Lajoie in 1901, +61 runs.   Tommy Davis and Chuck Klein, 1930, are on both lists, the RBI list and the Runs Scored list:

 

First	Last	YEAR	R	X R	R
Nap	Lajoie	1901	145	84	61.3
Al	Simmons	1930	152	97	55.2
Tommy	Davis	1962	120	75	45.5
Roger	Peckinpaugh	1921	128	84	44.5
Babe	Herman	1930	143	99	44.0
Woody	English	1930	152	111	41.4
Jay	Bell	1999	132	91	41.4
Billy	Williams	1970	137	96	41.3
Zoilo	Versalles	1965	126	85	41.2
Chuck	Klein	1930	158	117	40.8

 

              Zoilo Versalles won an MVP Award in 1965, scoring 41 runs more than he normally would have.   Lajoie barely qualified for the list from another standpoint.  I did not consider a player eligible for the list if

              1) He was still active in 2016, since this would queer the season-to-career comparison,

              2)  He came up before 1895, or

              3)  His career was centered in the 19^th century, or

              4)  The relevant season was in the 19^th century.

              If we did this and DIDN’T exclude 19^th century seasons, almost all of the lists would be entirely dominated by 19^th century players.   Nineteenth century baseball isn’t REALLY major league baseball.   They changed the rules regularly, changed scoring rules, changed equipment, changed parks.   It caused standards to jump around like UIJD (undocumented immigrant jumping beans), which would cause phony "accomplishments" from the 19^th century to completely dominate these lists. The worst years for Runs Scored are often by old guys who didn’t realize until the season started that they couldn’t play anymore:  

 

First	Last	YEAR	R	X R	R
Derek	Jeter	2014	47	97	-49.7
Hank	Aaron	1975	45	85	-39.7
Harry	Rice	1933	44	83	-38.9
Craig	Biggio	1990	53	92	-38.6
Ron	Santo	1962	44	82	-38.2
Chick	Stahl	1906	63	100	-37.2
Mickey	Mantle	1968	57	93	-35.6
Nap	Lajoie	1915	40	75	-34.8
Ginger	Beaumont	1909	35	69	-34.3
Earl	Sheely	1931	30	64	-33.7

 

              The story which was told at the time about Santo’s 1962 off season was that Santo had gotten into weight training in the winter of 1961-62.    He hit .284 with 23 homers in 1961, but a friend had convinced him that if he lifted and got stronger, he could hit 40 homers.   He got bigger, but he didn’t get stronger; he got slower.   That was the story that was told at the time.   At the time, we didn’t know that Santo was a diabetic.   I don’t think Santo knew it at the time.    In retrospect, you wonder if it wasn’t the diabetes that was slowing him down, rather than the weight.

              You’ll note that there are often more Hall of Famers on the "bad year" list than on the "good year" list, which makes sense I guess.   If you have a high career norm, that makes a year when you DON’T score runs stand out from your career.  

              Let’s do.  . .let’s do doubles.  

First	Last	YEAR	2B	X 2B	2B
Earl	Webb	1931	67	42	25.4
George H.	Burns	1926	64	40	23.7
Chuck	Knoblauch	1994	45	22	23.2
Paul	Waner	1932	62	39	22.9
Gee	Walker	1936	55	33	22.4
Enos	Slaughter	1939	52	30	21.8
Hank	Greenberg	1934	63	41	21.5
Stan	Spence	1946	50	29	21.3
Bobby	Byrne	1910	43	23	20.0
Floyd	Robinson	1962	45	25	19.6
Frank	Robinson	1962	51	32	19.5

 

              Earl Webb, the record-holder for doubles in a season, is also the record-holder for "most doubles more than he would normally hit", a phenomenon which we will see two more times, at least; the record-holders for triples and homers are also the guys who hit the largest number more than they would regularly hit.    I stretched the list to 11 there so I would get both F Robinson’s 1962 on there, Floyd and Frank.   Love that Floyd Robinson season.    The leader for doubles underachieving is the careers doubles record holder, Tristram:

First	Last	YEAR	2B	X 2B	2B
Tris	Speaker	1910	20	40	-20.2
Hank	Greenberg	1938	23	42	-19.3
Kirby	Puckett	1984	12	31	-18.8
Hank	Greenberg	1947	13	32	-18.7
Honus	Wagner	1914	15	34	-18.6
Tris	Speaker	1915	25	43	-18.1
Rogers	Hornsby	1919	15	33	-17.9
Harry	Hooper	1910	9	26	-17.1
Sean	Casey	2003	19	36	-16.9
Luis	Gonzalez	2002	19	36	-16.8

 

              Tris is a double-uniquer, by the way; he’s the only "Tris" in major league history, and also the only "Speaker".   Hadn’t realized that until now.   Not counting Frank House, who was, of course, the Speaker of the House.   Owen (Chief) Wilson is the Earl Webb of triples:

 

First	Last	YEAR	3B	X 3B	3B
Chief	Wilson	1912	36	15	21.5
Larry	Doyle	1911	25	10	14.6
Bill	Bradley	1903	22	8	13.8
Dale	Mitchell	1949	23	10	13.4
Ryne	Sandberg	1984	19	6	13.3
Willie	Mays	1957	20	7	12.5
Kiki	Cuyler	1925	26	14	12.4
Adam	Comorosky	1930	23	11	11.8
George	Brett	1979	20	8	11.7
Billy	Herman	1939	18	7	11.2

 

              While the leader for NOT hitting his triples in a season is. . . .wait a minute, who do you think?   Just wanted to pause there to point out to you that you’re actually learning something here, since none of you would know the answer to this question before I give it to you.   It’s Edd Rousch in 1927:

 

First	Last	YEAR	3B	X 3B	3B
Edd	Roush	1927	4	14	-9.7
Home Run	Baker	1919	1	10	-8.6
Red	Murray	1913	3	12	-8.6
Jack	Fournier	1924	4	13	-8.5
Charlie	Gehringer	1937	1	9	-8.4
Sam	Crawford	1905	10	18	-8.4
Jimmy	Collins	1907	1	9	-8.2
Hobe	Ferris	1907	2	10	-8.2
Cy	Seymour	1908	2	10	-8.1
Hughie	Critz	1934	1	9	-8.1

 

              Four interesting things there:

              1)  Sam Crawford in 1905 hit 10 triples—but makes the list of players who DIDN’T hit as many triples as they usually do.

              2)  NONE of the players who missed their expected triples in a season by the widest margins hit zero triples, which I would have expected, and

              3)  The "expectations" for the top guys and the expectations for the bottom guys are about the same.   It’s just that one group did and one group didn’t.

              4)  One thing I like about these lists is that they are mostly distributed across time, with seasons from the dead ball era mixed in with seasons from the 1990s.   This one isn’t, though.   We don’t hit many triples anymore, so players are not EXPECTED to hit triples. 

              Home runs. . .this isn’t a surprise.   Fluke home run seasons are something people talk about a lot, so you could probably guess most of those.   I’ll do that list later; let’s do strikeouts and walks.    The leader for striking out way more in one season than he normally did is. . .hold on.

              Pausing again to point out to you that you don’t know the answer to this until I tell you.   It’s Willie Mays, 1971:

First	Last	YEAR	SO	X SO	SO
Willie	Mays	1971	123	66	57.4
Mike	Schmidt	1975	180	126	53.9
Ron	Gant	1997	162	108	53.7
Mike	Schmidt	1973	136	83	53.1
Carney	Lansford	1979	115	65	50.2
Larry	Hisle	1970	139	92	46.9
Mark	Belanger	1968	114	67	46.5
Julio	Franco	1997	116	70	46.4
Larry	Hisle	1969	152	106	46.3
Raul	Ibanez	2013	128	82	45.7

 

              Interesting about Schmidt being on the list, 2 and 4.   We all remember that he struck out a lot, but this points out that that’s really only early in his career.   By the time he was MVP his strikeout totals are not so high.  

              Mays had a high-strikeout season his last year as a regular, but that type of year is not prominent on the list.   The only other one of those is Ibanez.   Larry Hisle is on the list his FIRST two years as regular; Schmidt, Lansford and Belanger were early in their careers.   Mostly this list is younger guys.   The list of guys who had seasons in which they DIDN’T strike out the way they usually did is probably more interesting:

First	Last	YEAR	SO	X SO	SO
Dave	Kingman	1985	114	163	-48.8
Ed	Brinkman	1970	41	88	-47.4
Andruw	Jones	2000	100	147	-47.1
Jim	Edmonds	1997	80	124	-43.7
Frank	Howard	1969	96	139	-43.4
Ivan	Rodriguez	1996	55	98	-43.3
Dan	Uggla	2006	123	166	-43.3
Jack	Clark	1978	72	115	-43.1
Mike	Schmidt	1988	42	84	-42.4
Bill	Hall	2005	103	144	-41.3

 

              Ed Brinkman and Dave Kingman; who would figure them for pair?   Dave Kingman and Richie Sexson are a matched set; Ed Brinkman and Roy McMillan are a matched set.   Dave Kingman and Ed Brinkman, not so much.      Willie Mays, same season (1971) is also 11^th on the list of players drawing way more walks than they normally would.   Mays, 40 years old and holding on to the last of his glory, obviously decided to take more pitches that year to get on base for McCovey.  Mays’ God Son drew 100 walks more in 2004 than expected: 

 

First	Last	YEAR	BB	X BB	BB
Barry	Bonds	2004	232	125	106.8
Barry	Bonds	2002	198	124	73.8
Jimmy	Sheckard	1911	147	88	59.4
Frank	Howard	1970	132	75	56.9
Bob	Elliott	1948	131	80	51.3
Dave	Robertson	1914	70	19	51.3
Ty	Cobb	1915	118	67	51.1
Gary	Sheffield	1996	142	91	50.8
Jack	Clark	1987	136	86	50.4
Sammy	Sosa	2001	116	67	49.3
Willie	Mays	1971	112	63	49.1
Willie	McCovey	1970	137	89	48.4
Jimmy	Wynn	1969	148	100	48.2
Johnny	Evers	1910	108	60	48.0
Mark	McGwire	1998	162	117	44.9
Toby	Harrah	1985	113	69	44.5
Eddie	Joost	1949	149	105	44.1

 

              I extended that list out because I thought the names on down the list (Toby Harrah and Eddie Joost) were interesting.   Toby Harrah had that kind of a career; he was always outstanding at something, but you never knew what it would be in any given season.    The three guys I would describe as being like that, with career numbers all over the map in multiple categories, are Toby Harrah, Wally Moses and Tommy Harper.    86 of Bonds 107 unexpected walks were intentional walks:

 

First	Last	YEAR	IBB	X IBB	IBB
Barry	Bonds	2004	120	34	86.3
Barry	Bonds	2002	68	33	34.6
Barry	Bonds	2003	61	30	31.0
Willie	McCovey	1969	45	16	29.2
Don	Baylor	1986	35	9	26.4
Sammy	Sosa	2001	37	11	26.0
Willie	McCovey	1970	40	16	23.9
Craig	Biggio	2003	27	6	21.3
John	Olerud	1993	33	12	21.2
Kevin	Mitchell	1989	32	12	20.1
Spike	Owen	1989	25	5	19.7
George	Brett	1985	31	12	19.0
Roberto	Clemente	1968	27	9	18.3
Frank	Thomas	1995	29	11	18.2
Tim	Raines	1987	26	9	17.2

 

              Who would ever guess that Tim Raines would be intentionally walked 26 times in a season?   Raines was 50-for-55 stealing bases that year, but he was a great hitter, too.    Here’s another fun fact about these lists:   Did you know (and would you believe) that Willie Mays in 1971 and Barry Bonds in his incredible 2004 season (232 walks) were basically the same age?   They were.   Both of them turned 40 in mid-season, Mays in May and Bonds in July.    Just two months difference in their ages.    The list of players drawing FEWER intentional walks in a season than their career norms is the same players in different seasons, except that it is even more ridiculously Barry Bonds-dominated:

 

First	Last	YEAR	IBB	X IBB	IBB
Barry	Bonds	1987	3	33	-30.3
Barry	Bonds	1986	2	26	-24.4
Barry	Bonds	1988	14	34	-19.5
Barry	Bonds	1990	15	34	-18.9
Barry	Bonds	1989	22	37	-15.1
Barry	Bonds	1999	9	24	-14.7
Vladimir	Guerrero	2011	3	16	-13.2
Vladimir	Guerrero	2010	5	18	-12.7
Barry	Bonds	1995	22	35	-12.7
Chipper	Jones	1996	0	12	-11.6
Willie	McCovey	1965	5	16	-11.2
Barry	Bonds	2000	22	33	-11.1
George	Brett	1990	0	11	-10.9
Eddie	Murray	1993	0	11	-10.9
Willie	McCovey	1963	5	16	-10.9

 

              The list for hits above/below average and the list for batting average are sort of generally the same list, although not entirely.   I’ll do the batting average list first, and I’ll extend this out to 50 players because batting average is a focal point.    I considered a player eligible for this list if he had 400 plate appearances in a season:

 

Rank	First	Last	YEAR	Avg	Margin	Career
1	Tito	Francona	1959	.363	.091	.272
2	Norm	Cash	1961	.361	.089	.271
3	Nap	Lajoie	1901	.426	.088	.338
4	George	Brett	1980	.390	.085	.305
5	George	Watkins	1930	.373	.085	.288
6	Andres	Galarraga	1993	.370	.082	.288
7	Jimmy	Sheckard	1901	.354	.080	.274
8	George	Sisler	1922	.420	.080	.340
9	Luke	Appling	1936	.388	.077	.310
10	Germany	Schaefer	1911	.334	.077	.257
11	Heinie	Zimmerman	1912	.372	.076	.295
12	Miguel	Dilone	1980	.341	.076	.265
13	Cy	Seymour	1905	.377	.074	.303
14	Mariano	Duncan	1996	.340	.073	.267
15	Darin	Erstad	2000	.355	.073	.282
16	Elston	Howard	1961	.348	.073	.274
17	John	Knight	1910	.312	.073	.239
18	Bill	Sweeney	1912	.344	.072	.272
19	Barry	Bonds	2002	.370	.072	.298
20	Paul	O'Neill	1994	.359	.071	.288
21	Jeff	Bagwell	1994	.367	.071	.297
22	Johnny	Evers	1912	.341	.071	.270
23	Roger	Bresnahan	1903	.350	.070	.279
24	Bill	Bradley	1902	.340	.069	.271
25	Josh	Hamilton	2010	.359	.069	.290
26	Rich	Reese	1969	.322	.069	.253
27	Sam	Crawford	1911	.378	.069	.309
28	Walton	Cruise	1921	.346	.068	.277
29	John	Olerud	1993	.363	.068	.295
30	Babe	Herman	1930	.393	.068	.324
31	Freddy	Lindstrom	1930	.379	.068	.311
32	Arky	Vaughan	1935	.385	.067	.318
33	George	Sisler	1920	.407	.067	.340
34	Chief	Meyers	1912	.358	.067	.291
35	Rico	Carty	1970	.366	.067	.299
36	Mickey	Mantle	1957	.365	.067	.298
37	Mickey	Vernon	1946	.353	.067	.286
38	Larry	Walker	1999	.379	.066	.313
39	Charlie	Hickman	1902	.361	.066	.295
40	Harry	Walker	1947	.363	.066	.296
41	Chuck	Klein	1930	.386	.066	.320
42	Jason	Giambi	2001	.342	.066	.277
43	Joe	Torre	1971	.363	.065	.297
44	Bret	Boone	2001	.331	.065	.266
45	Rogers	Hornsby	1924	.424	.065	.358
46	Jorge	Posada	2007	.338	.065	.273
47	Carlos	Delgado	2000	.344	.065	.280
48	Rob	Wilfong	1979	.313	.064	.248
49	Barry	Bonds	2004	.362	.064	.298
50	Goose	Goslin	1928	.379	.063	.316

 

              Lot of first-year regulars on that list, lot of MVPs, lot of batting champions.   This is the list for worst batting averages relative to career, which includes a lot of guys named "Charles":

 

First	Last	YEAR	Avg	Margin	Career
Chuck	Klein	1940	.218	-.103	.320
Charlie	Jamieson	1918	.202	-.101	.303
Charlie	Gehringer	1941	.220	-.100	.320
Nap	Lajoie	1916	.246	-.092	.338
Joe	Dugan	1918	.195	-.086	.280
Clyde	Milan	1909	.200	-.085	.285
George H.	Burns	1917	.226	-.081	.307
Nap	Lajoie	1914	.258	-.080	.338
Jimmy	Williams	1909	.195	-.080	.275
Billy	Williams	1976	.211	-.079	.290
Steve	O'Neill	1917	.184	-.079	.263
Adam	Dunn	2011	.159	-.078	.237
Rogers	Hornsby	1918	.281	-.077	.358
Jimmy	Collins	1908	.217	-.077	.294
Stan	Musial	1959	.255	-.076	.331

 

              Here’s the top 15 by hits over expectation in a season:

 

First	Last	YEAR	Avg	H	Margin	Career
Jimmy	Sheckard	1901	.354	57.2	.080	.274
Nap	Lajoie	1901	.426	51.6	.088	.338
Darin	Erstad	2000	.355	48.4	.073	.282
Mickey	Vernon	1946	.353	45.1	.067	.286
Miguel	Dilone	1980	.341	42.5	.076	.265
George	Sisler	1922	.420	42.0	.080	.340
Joe	Torre	1971	.363	41.9	.065	.297
Chuck	Klein	1930	.386	41.8	.066	.320
Bill	Bradley	1902	.340	41.8	.069	.271
Andres	Galarraga	1993	.370	41.6	.082	.288
Earl	Averill	1936	.378	41.2	.060	.318
Bret	Boone	2001	.331	41.2	.065	.266
George	Sisler	1920	.407	41.1	.067	.340
Cy	Seymour	1905	.377	40.4	.074	.303
Topsy	Hartsel	1901	.335	40.3	.059	.276

 

              1901 was an expansion year; baseball went from one eight-team league to two eight-team leagues, so a lot of guys had good years.   It is kind of the end of the 19^th century instability.   Here are the players who are short by the most hits. . .mostly Hall of Famers hitting a wall:

 

First	Last	YEAR	Avg	H	Margin	Career
Charlie	Gehringer	1941	.220	-52.9	-.100	.320
Charlie	Jamieson	1918	.202	-41.7	-.101	.303
Honus	Wagner	1914	.252	-40.2	-.076	.327
Chuck	Klein	1940	.218	-38.8	-.103	.320
Nap	Lajoie	1908	.289	-38.7	-.049	.338
Hank	Aaron	1975	.234	-37.9	-.071	.305
Dave	Bancroft	1916	.212	-37.8	-.067	.279
Joe	Kuhel	1943	.213	-37.1	-.064	.277
Nap	Lajoie	1914	.258	-37.1	-.080	.338
Clyde	Milan	1909	.200	-36.2	-.085	.285
Hank	Greenberg	1947	.249	-36.2	-.065	.313
Nap	Lajoie	1916	.246	-36.0	-.092	.338
Fielder	Jones	1906	.230	-35.4	-.055	.285
Joe	Dugan	1918	.195	-35.3	-.086	.280
Wade	Boggs	1992	.259	-34.6	-.069	.328

 

 

              I’m running a little long here; I’d better cut through some of these quickly.    The record for singles in a season, more than expected, is by Stan Spence in 1942; Spence hit .323 that year with only four homers, whereas he usually hit around .280 with 15 homers.    Second on the list is Willie Montanez, 1976.      At the bottom of the list was Fielder Jones, 1906, short by 40 singles.   But he had a good year, anyway; he was the player/manager for the 1906 World Champions, the Hitless Wonders.   The leader for Extra Base Hits in a season over expectation is Brady Anderson, 1996, +37, followed by Adam Comorosky, 1930, +35.    Most Extra Base Hits UNDER expectation is Kirby Puckett, 1984, negative 34.  

              Five players have exceeded their normal total bases in a season by 100, while only one has ever missed his norm by 100.   The five who beat their normal total bases by 100 are Brady Anderson, 1996 (+124), Luis Gonzalez, 2001 (+116), Jimmy Sheckard, 1901 (+104), George Sisler, 1920 (+102) and Nap Lajoie, 1901 (+101).    So we know that George Sisler was definitely using steroids.  The one who missed by 100 was Hank Aaron in 1975, -102.    Mark McGwire, 1991, is second on that list at -93.

              The worst season for Grounding Into Double Plays was Brad Ausmus in 2002; he grounded into 30, whereas his expectation based on career numbers would have been 14, so that’s +16.     On the other end of that is Joe Torre, 1969.   Torre was always fat, as a young player.   He came to a career crisis in 1968, caused in part by not being in shape, worked hard, lost a lot of weight, and was also traded that winter to St. Louis, which had artificial turf.    He grounded into only ten double plays that year, as opposed to an expectation of 21.9 (-11.9).    And has kept the weight off ever since.  

              The leader in Hit Batsmen over expectations is Ron Hunt, 1971, +25; he was the subject of a recent profile by Craig Wright.     On the other end is Minnie Minoso, 1960, at -13. 

              Bill Bradley in 1908 was credited with SIXTY sacrifice hits, sac bunts, whereas his norm would have been 27.    Seems like 27 is quite a few, but anyway, Bradley was +33.    Second on that list is Bert Campaneris, 1977, +28, a season I remember.   The Rangers signed the 35-year-old Campaneris to be their shortstop, although he had lost a step.   He had always been a leadoff hitter, but the Rangers batted him second behind Mike Hargrove, who had a .420 on base percentage but was very slow, and then used Campy to bunt him to second. 

              That was a tremendously interesting team; somebody should write a book about them, although I don’t know if you could find an audience, but you could find a good book.   Lenny Randle lost his job at second base to a rookie, Bump Wills, and punched out his manager (Frank Lucchesi) at the end of spring training.   Lucchesi had mishandled the situation, referring to Randle in a press interview as a punk—not appropriate—and then Lucchesi was fired in mid-season.   It was a tremendously talented team, basically a team of near-All Stars with two Hall of Fame pitchers in the rotation, but with a fabulously dysfunctional clubhouse, in spite of which they won 94 games.  They played .500 ball for 62 games until Lucchesi was fired, caught fire under the new manager, Billy Hunter, who was an excellent manager.   I think Hunter eventually moved Wills into the leadoff spot and put Hargrove behind Campy, so Campy wound up with only 40 sacrifice bunts, but it looked for most of the season like it was going to be 50.

              Sac Flies. . .Roy White in 1971 had 17 against an expectation of 6, +11.3.   Frank Thomas in 1991 had 2 against an expectation of 8, -6.4.

              You actually can do this with Games Played, as well; it is a little bit different conceptually, but the same mathematically (Career Games/ Career Plate Appearances, times season Plate Appearances, subtracted from actual games played.)     Jerry Martin in 1976 was Greg Luzinski’s glove.    The ’76 Phillies had a great defensive center fielder but Luzinski and Jay Johnstone in left and right, which is one more defensive problem than you can live with, so they carried Jerry Martin to pinch hit if the team was behind or to play defense if the team was ahead.    He wound up the season with 130 games played but only 129 plate appearances, which is +85 in games played.   Dave Collins in 1990 was +76, and the recently lost Otis Nixon was +73 in 1986.    On the other end is Dick Hall in 1954.   Hall was an outfielder in 1954, a pitcher the rest of his career (and it was a long career), so he is -176 games in 1954, given his career ratio of at bats to games.  

              Dick Hall for many years after he retired would attend Orioles games, wearing his old Orioles’ uniform from his playing days.    Maybe he still does, I don’t know, but anyway, you have to love that.    Next to Hall on that list is Greg Gross, 1974, -125.    Gross is the opposite of Martin.   Martin was a pinch hitter/reserve outfielder his first year and a half, a regular after that, so his ratio of plate appearances/games is very low at the start of his career, whereas Gross, from the same generation, was a regular for a year or two, then had a career as a pinch hitter/reserve outfielder.

              There are 21 players in history who have hit twenty home runs more than we would have expected them to hit, based on career numbers.   Nine of those 21 did it between 1996 and 2003:

 

First	Last	YEAR	HR	XHR	HR
Barry	Bonds	2001	73	40	32.9
Luis	Gonzalez	2001	57	24	32.5
Brady	Anderson	1996	50	19	31.4
Roger	Maris	1961	61	33	28.2
Davey	Johnson	1973	43	16	26.8
Hack	Wilson	1930	56	31	24.9
Tilly	Walker	1922	37	13	23.6
Jay	Bell	1999	38	16	22.3
Andre	Dawson	1987	49	27	22.1
Carl	Yastrzemski	1967	44	22	22.0
Todd	Helton	2001	49	27	21.8
Sammy	Sosa	1998	66	44	21.6
Cy	Williams	1923	41	20	21.4
George	Foster	1977	52	31	21.3
Hank	Greenberg	1938	58	37	21.0
Javier (c)	Lopez	2003	43	22	20.8
Ted	Kluszewski	1954	49	28	20.6
Sammy	Sosa	2001	64	44	20.2
George	Bell	1987	47	27	20.2
Goose	Goslin	1930	37	17	20.1
Shawn	Green	2001	49	29	20.1

 

              The list of players NOT hitting their usual number of homers also has a steroid division and a non-steroid division.   Many or most of the players below are steroid players before they discovered better living through chemistry.    The record-holder in the non-steroid division is Lou Gehrig, 1926:

 

             

First	Last	YEAR	HR	XHR	Diff
Mark	McGwire	1991	22	45	-22.5
Barry	Bonds	1989	19	41	-22.0
Rafael	Palmeiro	1989	8	30	-21.9
Rafael	Palmeiro	1988	8	30	-21.7
Sammy	Sosa	1990	15	36	-20.6
Lou	Gehrig	1926	16	36	-19.5
Gary	Gaetti	1984	5	24	-18.6
Hank	Aaron	1975	12	29	-17.4
Rafael	Palmeiro	1990	14	31	-16.8
Adam	Dunn	2011	11	28	-16.5
Mark	McGwire	1988	32	48	-16.3
Vladimir	Guerrero	2011	13	29	-16.2
Carlos	Lee	2012	9	25	-16.1
Ken	Caminiti	1990	4	20	-16.0
Jeff	Bagwell	1991	15	31	-15.9
Ralph	Kiner	1954	22	38	-15.9
Ted	Kluszewski	1949	8	24	-15.7
Kirby	Puckett	1985	4	20	-15.7
Frank	Thomas	1999	15	31	-15.5
Gary	Sheffield	1990	10	25	-15.4
Kirby	Puckett	1984	0	15	-15.4

 

              When I became a baseball fan in 1960, Ty Cobb held the "modern" record for stolen bases, with 96.    His record was beaten by Maury Wills, 1962, with 104, and then Wills was beaten by Lou Brock, 1974, with 118, and then by Rickey Henderson, 1982, with 130.   They’re 1-2-4-5 on the chart below:

 

First	Last	YEAR	SB	X  SB	Margin
Rickey	Henderson	1982	130	69	60.9
Lou	Brock	1974	118	59	59.5
Eric	Davis	1986	80	28	52.4
Maury	Wills	1962	104	54	50.4
Ty	Cobb	1915	96	48	48.2
Clyde	Milan	1912	88	40	47.9
Marquis	Grissom	1991	76	29	47.4
Marquis	Grissom	1992	78	34	44.1
Maury	Wills	1965	94	50	43.9
Tim	Raines	1981	71	28	42.7

 

              61 is the magic number here.   Appling was +61 in RBI, Lajoie +61 in runs scored, Rickey was +61 in stolen bases.  Those having seasons in which they DIDN’T steal the bases they usually do is the same players:

 

First	Last	YEAR	SB	X  SB	Margin
Ty	Cobb	1923	9	44	-35.1
Ty	Cobb	1922	9	42	-32.8
Tim	Raines	1995	13	45	-32.3
Maury	Wills	1971	15	46	-31.2
Matt	Alexander	1974	8	39	-31.1
Ron	LeFlore	1975	28	55	-27.2
Ty	Cobb	1924	23	50	-26.5
Rickey	Henderson	1996	37	63	-26.4
Ron	LeFlore	1977	39	65	-26.2
Marquis	Grissom	2004	3	29	-26.0

             

              This research has both a serious side and a fun side which kicks out freak show stats.   This is the fun side, the freak show lists.   I’ll try to publish the other side of the research next week, although I haven’t written that up yet and can’t be sure when I will get to it.   Thanks.