May 15 Poll Update

May 15, 2019
 

Poll Results May 15, 2019

 

            John Kasich had another strong performance in yesterday’s BJ Presidential poll, gaining 34% of the vote compared to an expectation based on previous polls of 27%.   Kasich has now been polled six times, and came in at 570 in the first poll (5.7% of the vote), 663 in the second, 763 in the third, 685 in the fourth, 697 in the fifth, and 745 in the sixth.  The 570 in the first poll doesn’t mean that he got 5.7% of the vote from that poll; he got 37% of the vote from that poll, but it was a relatively weak field, and only 4 candidates in the poll.  If you reduce the 37% to represent the percentage of the larger field, it shrinks from 37% to 5.70%.   Yesterday he got 34% but it was a strong list, so that becomes 7.45%, which moves Kasich up from 657, where he was yesterday, to 688. 

            Other than Kasich, nobody really moved in yesterday’s poll.  I have added Stacey Abrams to the group, since she has now been polled three times, and these numbers represent per 10,548 respondents, since she scores at 548 and I didn’t want to suddenly take that 5.48% away from the other candidates, creating a break in the lines.   I’ll siphon the extra 548 away slowly over the next couple of months.   These are the current standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1265

2

Pete

Buttigieg

988

3

Joe

Biden

977

4

Kamala

Harris

885

5

John

Kasich

688

6

Stacey

Abrams

548

7

Beto

O'Rourke

526

8

Bernie

Sanders

519

9

Donald

Trump

468

10

John

Hickenlooper

446

11

Cory

Booker

405

12

Amy

Klobuchar

370

13

Bill

Weld

295

14

Howard

Schultz

236

15

Andrew

Yang

229

16

Kirsten

Gillibrand

212

17

Julian

Castro

196

18

Jeff

Flake

187

19

Michael

Bennet

178

20

Tulsi

Gabbard

177

21

Jay

Inslee

169

22

Tim

Ryan

163

23

Eric

Swallwell

121

24

Mike

Gravel

77

25

John

Delaney

74

26

Seth

Moulton

74

27

Marrianne

Williamson

36

28

Wayne

Messam

35

 

            Thanks for reading.  Thanks for voting. 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (6 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
Oh -- I should have said "subtitle."
("Kasich up 30 points")

Why it's (highly) misleading:

Do you really think it reflects a 30% improvement, or more likely does it manifest a glitch/vulnerability of the method?

I don't know (of course), but I'd bet it would be a good bet to call it the latter -- because it's not plausible that Kasich would be up 30 in any real sense.
I'm saying it's far more a reflection of some quirk of the method than of anything actual about Kasich and how he's doing.

I invite further comment. :-)
I don't want to be a voice of 1 on this.

BECAUSE: If I'm wrong, I want to know it.
And if I'm right, I don't want this to be bypassed (euphemism for ignored) :-) .....which it very easily will be if it's just a voice of 1.
1:30 AM May 16th
 
MarisFan61
Bill, you should be ashamed of yourself about this title. :-) :-) :-)

(It's misleading, to say the least.)
8:04 PM May 15th
 
RanBricker
Does this poll experiment say more about the Presidential hopefuls or more about your twitter readers?​
7:56 PM May 15th
 
bjames
Kasich is definitely running, yes. I think the only people on the list at the moment who have not announced that they're in the race are Jeff Flake (R) and Stacey Abrams (D). Abrams is probably running, hasn't said for sure. I thought that Flake would definitely run, based on his actions and statements when he left the Senate a year ago, but he is laying low for now. If we don't hear from him for another month or so I'll have to consider taking him off the list.



I need to add that Montana Governor who just announced he is running, but I don't have a place for him in a poll until next Monday, and won't include him in the data until he has been polled three times. I'd be very surprised if he is over 200.
3:08 PM May 15th
 
337
Has Kasich announced he's running? I think all the others have, not sure he has. Well, maybe not Flake or Abrams either.
2:39 PM May 15th
 
337
Has Kasich announced he's running? I think all the others have, not sure he has.
2:38 PM May 15th
 
 
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