Poll Results May 15, 2019

            John Kasich had another strong performance in yesterday’s BJ Presidential poll, gaining 34% of the vote compared to an expectation based on previous polls of 27%.   Kasich has now been polled six times, and came in at 570 in the first poll (5.7% of the vote), 663 in the second, 763 in the third, 685 in the fourth, 697 in the fifth, and 745 in the sixth.  The 570 in the first poll doesn’t mean that he got 5.7% of the vote from that poll; he got 37% of the vote from that poll, but it was a relatively weak field, and only 4 candidates in the poll.  If you reduce the 37% to represent the percentage of the larger field, it shrinks from 37% to 5.70%.   Yesterday he got 34% but it was a strong list, so that becomes 7.45%, which moves Kasich up from 657, where he was yesterday, to 688. 

            Other than Kasich, nobody really moved in yesterday’s poll.  I have added Stacey Abrams to the group, since she has now been polled three times, and these numbers represent per 10,548 respondents, since she scores at 548 and I didn’t want to suddenly take that 5.48% away from the other candidates, creating a break in the lines.   I’ll siphon the extra 548 away slowly over the next couple of months.   These are the current standings:

            Thanks for reading.  Thanks for voting.