The Patriots scored 458 points this past season while the Eagles were one point behind at 457, making them the second and third most prolific offenses in the NFL behind the LA Rams (478 points). Sports Info Solutions has been tracking in-depth situational information that provides some key insights into why they’ve been so effective.
Short Answer: Running Backs!
First the Eagles. The Eagles like to run the ball out of the spread formation. No team ran the ball a higher percentage of the time with three or more wide receivers on the field than the Eagles, who did so on 302 of their 725 such plays (42 percent). They ran it often, and they ran it with great success—only one team had more yards per carry than the Eagles’ 5.4 mark in such situations.
What’s more, the Patriots defense was not very good in this situation. They allowed 5.5 yards per carry when the offense ran the ball with three or more receivers on the field, the second-highest rate in the league. The Pats will need to figure out a way to stop the Eagles’ running game in those situations if they want to avoid getting burned by the likes of LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement.
Now the Patriots. The Patriots’ high-powered offense looks to have its hands full against the Eagles’ fearsome defense. The Eagles don’t have many obvious weaknesses, but one area in which the Patriots may be able to find an edge is passing the ball to their running backs. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts to their running backs, no quarterback had a higher passer rating on those throws than Tom Brady, who was 125-157 for 947 yards and 9 touchdowns.
To their credit, the Eagles have largely contained opposing running backs. However, those running backs have still managed to catch five touchdowns against them, tied for the second most in the league. If you’re a fan of prop bets, putting some money on Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead or James White, all of whom caught three touchdowns this season, may not be the worst idea.