Poll Report May 26

May 26, 2019
 

Poll Report May 26, 2019

            Kamala Harris was the big winner in Poll #47, getting 55% of the vote against Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang and the new kid on the block.   Actually the results were pretty much as we would have expected based on the previous polls, and the standings don’t change very much.  To reach that conclusion, we can start with yesterday’s rankings for these four candidates:

Scores

Harris

891

Sanders

489

Yang

237

Bullock

107

 

            The total of those four is 1,724, so that’s a fairly strong poll, a little stronger than average, although not as strong as today’s poll, which includes Joe Biden and  totals 2,251 points.  Yesterday’s candidates control 17% of the points in the system, whereas today’s candidate control 22%.    Harris had 891 of the 1,724, which is 52%, so we would expect her to get 52% in yesterday’s poll.   We would expect Sanders to get 28%, etc.:

Scores

Harris

891

Sanders

489

Yang

237

Bullock

107

Predicted

Harris

52

Sanders

28

Yang

14

Bullock

6

 

            In fact, Harris got 55% to Sanders’ 23%, so Harris moves forward a little bit, and Sanders—who has been doing very, very poorly in my polls compared to the national polls, falls even further backward:

 

Scores

Harris

891

Sanders

489

Yang

237

Bullock

107

Predicted

Harris

52

Sanders

28

Yang

14

Bullock

6

Actual

Harris

55

Sanders

23

Yang

16

Bullock

7

 

              So the poll, really, was pretty much as expected, and it doesn’t rattle the polls very much.   These are the updated standings:

 

Rank

First

Last

Current

 

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1218

 

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1025

 

3

Joe

Biden

926

 

4

Kamala

Harris

899

UP 8

5

John

Kasich

680

 

6

Beto

O'Rourke

564

 

7

Stacey

Abrams

560

 

8

Bernie

Sanders

485

DOWN 4

9

Cory

Booker

454

 

10

Donald

Trump

440

 

11

Amy

Klobuchar

417

 

12

John

Hickenlooper

342

 

13

Bill

Weld

263

 

14

Kirsten

Gillibrand

258

 

15

Andrew

Yang

245

UP 8

16

Julian

Castro

218

 

17

Jay

Inslee

205

 

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

195

 

19

Howard

Schultz

188

 

20

Jeff

Flake

183

 

21

Michael

Bennet

153

 

22

Tim

Ryan

139

 

23

Eric

Swallwell

110

 

24

Mike

Gravel

76

 

25

Seth

Moulton

70

 

26

John

Delaney

67

 

27

Marrianne

Williamson

37

 

28

Wayne

Messam

30

 

 

 

              Based on the polling that I have done, I am now predicting that Bernie Sanders’ current standing in the national polls will prove to be a complete mirage, and Bernie will collapse in the voting, and either will be forced to pull out of the contest early next year or else will stagger on, becoming gradually irrelevant. 

            Bernie is a terrific campaigner, and an articulate spokesman for what he believes.   He has phenomenal energy for a man of his age, and actually, I agree with him on some issues.  But his moment has come and gone, and he does not have sufficient following to make a lasting stand in this contest—nor is he positioned to gain strength as the campaign rolls on.   The high standing in the national polls that Bernie now has is just an illusion created by poor polling methods, and it will evaporate as soon as the voting starts, or probably before then.  

            A lot of Bernie’s popularity in the 2016 campaign was based on the fact that he was running against an absolutely horrible candidate who couldn’t even beat Donald Trump.   The deck had been stacked in Hillary’s favor by the Democratic Party, and everybody knew that the deck had been stacked in Hillary’s favor.  Hillary ran around the country advocating stupid shit and annoying people and talking endlessly about her resume, which nobody cared about.   This galvanized the opposition to her, which made Bernie look stronger than he really was—and, as I said, he’s a really good campaigner. 

            When you come into a campaign at a high point, riding a wave, it is very difficult to go down in the polls and then recover.   Bernie is going to go down in the polls.  Bernie—and Biden—are old men in a party that is looking for what’s next.   He’s going nowhere.  That’s my first prediction based on these polls. 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (8 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
All I know is that I hope Bill's right about Bernie. I do think his time has passed and that he won't get far in the race. Then again I thought Biden's time had passed when he ran 12 years ago....​
3:07 PM May 28th
 
rogero
Your claim that Bernie's popularity was based on running against Hillary, which made him seem stronger than he was, doesn't withstand the simplest scrutiny. The large, enthusiastic crowds he was drawing had little to do with the issues he was raising, but people came out because they didn't like Hillary? Seem plausible? You admit Bernie established several issues others are now using. You think any of these candidates can articulate them as authentically as Bernie? You think voters won't be able to tell the difference between Bernie on these issues and Kamala, Biden, or Mayor Pete? Bernie has a large following no one else has at the moment.

Gravis Marketing did a poll 2 days before the '16 election between Bernie and Trump. Result: Bernie 56%, Trump 44%. No Hillary effect there. The poll provided clear evidence that other,less systematic polls during the primaries had suggested: Bernie was doing better than Hillary against Trump. Lest you claim that was becase Trump is so unpopular, need I remind you that is who the Dem nominee will be running against.

But, ah,you assert, Bernie's time has passed. You determined that how, exactly? By looking at the calendar? Reminds me of those who said Big Papi couldn't possibly hit like he did at the end of his career. Just look at the calendar.

The issues Bernie made the heart of his campaign have only grown in importance with the Trump catastrophe. But you think others can swoop in and make the case this time better than Bernie? You need to offer an explanation here because voters will be watching and there is a long time and many chances for each candidate to make his case.. No one is going to beat Bernie this time with vapid talk and a smile.


12:02 AM May 28th
 
wovenstrap
I agree with the general premise that Sanders was overvalued in 2016. The primary thing was not Clinton's badness as a candidate but just the fact of a very small number of candidates and a fore-ordained winner who was crying out for a protest vote to weigh in against her. Under those circumstances it was inevitable that even a semi-beloved and qualified establishment candidate would generate a single opponent with a whole lot of votes, and Sanders did very well under the circumstances. His numbers were in the 40s among primary voters, and that was an exaggerated picture of his appeal among Democratic voters; now we're seeing the opposite of that, how he competes with literally 21 other candidates dividing up the eligible voters (many of whom are running with platforms inspired by Sanders himself).
7:03 PM May 27th
 
MarisFan61
(I never expect you to get into the stupid shit I ask.) :-)
3:08 PM May 27th
 
bjames
Bill declines to debate the past or, as you say, elaborate.
11:06 AM May 27th
 
MarisFan61
What stupid shit did Hillary advocate?

I think she didn't, unless I also do, which of course is possible. :-)

What she did do was say some stuff incredibly stupidly, plus, echoing various kinds of things that you've pointed out about what kinds of things take hold, those things that she said incredibly stupidly highlighted some personal characteristics. And, her personal characteristics weren't what they needed to be.
But, advocated stupid shit?
(In case Bill declines to elaborate, maybe someone else can....)
10:21 AM May 27th
 
DaveFleming
I'm very much enjoying this project, in part because it is a compelling challenge to more traditional polling methods, and in part because it is suggesting a very different narrative for how the Democratic race could play out than other sources covering the field. So thanks for this, Bill.

And I agree with the sentiments about Sanders having missed his moment, though I very much favor his policies and would support him as the nominee. I think there's a strong energy for some new blood, and I'm similarly skeptical of Biden's chances against the field.

Keep 'em coming, Bill!
10:14 AM May 27th
 
meandean
I appreciate that you have the guts to state such a bold prediction at this point in the race.

My personal observation is that Bernie, for whatever reason (I won't uselessly speculate on this complex subject here), is much more polarizing "online" than he is "offline." If you read Internet discussion about him, you would get the impression that half of registered Democrats want him launched into the sun. Internet polls featuring Bernie tend to devolve into "Bernie or Bust" vs. "Anyone But Bernie" factions. However, whenever anyone polls Democrats at large, Bernie's favorability within the party is very high, basically the same as everyone else (who isn't Bill de Blasio.)

So, I think these polls are overstating intra-party opposition to Bernie... but I do think they're accurately identifying that this is some sort of an issue for him. It makes sense that it'd be easier for someone to win the nomination who also has liberal bona fides, but lacks that baggage. Bernie's best shot is if no one ever breaks away from the pack and the vote keeps being split many different ways, allowing him to win with his very loyal base. But that tends not to happen; the nature of the thing is usually that the field narrows.
5:52 PM May 26th
 
 
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