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Poll Results 5-13-2019

By Bill James

May 13, 2019

Poll Results 5-13-2019

The last two day’s polls haven’t really done ANYTHING to move the positions of the candidates, other than moving Marianne Williamson up from 33 to 37. These are the current standings:

Rank	First	Last	Current
1	Elizabeth	Warren	1159
2	Pete	Buttigieg	1077
3	Kamala	Harris	1030
4	Joe	Biden	901
5	John	Kasich	656
6	Beto	O'Rourke	534
7	Bernie	Sanders	504
8	Donald	Trump	474
9	John	Hickenlooper	427
10	Cory	Booker	407
11	Amy	Klobuchar	382
12	Bill	Weld	288
13	Andrew	Yang	234
14	Howard	Schultz	232
15	Kirsten	Gillibrand	215
16	Julian	Castro	192
17	Jeff	Flake	185
18	Michael	Bennet	181
19	Tulsi	Gabbard	178
20	Jay	Inslee	167
21	Tim	Ryan	160
22	Eric	Swallwell	119
23	Mike	Gravel	77
24	John	Delaney	74
25	Seth	Moulton	74
26	Marianne	Williamson	37
27	Wayne	Messam	35

Stacey Abrams now has a rating number, but I’m not going to publish it until she has been polled three times. Today’s poll (currently running) in going to shake up the board quite a bit, but the last two have only really confirmed prior expectations. I am working on an answer to those of you unable to figure out why I am doing these polls. I may get that done today and then I’ll erase this entry and re-post the standings, if I get that done. But I may not get to it until later in the week. Thanks.

COMMENTS (12 Comments, most recent shown first)

bjames
Ah, the memories. It brings back SO many memories.
4:58 AM May 15th

shthar
$3 aint trivial to some of us, Rockefeller.
4:08 PM May 14th

JohnPontoon
I'm personally delighted that commenters all seem to hate these. I just enjoy when people are irritated about trivial things.
1:45 PM May 14th

shthar
Yeah, I know people have said they'd pay $3 a month to read anything by Bill James, but....How bout them Twins? Huh?
10:52 AM May 14th

OldBackstop
This is bizarre. Do some HeyBills, if anyone is still submitting them.

"There are 261 million International Twitter users which account for 79% of Twitter accounts." https://www.omnicoreagency.com/twitter-statistics/

So are your results Russian collusion? Or merely South American responses, which far outnumber American subscribers?

Americans have moved on to Snapchat and Instagram (under 40) and Facebook (over 40). Twitter is for twidiots.

7:49 AM May 14th

MarisFan61
(typo -- not "was they we're the rats," but "was that we're the rats."
BTW we aren't.) :-)
11:53 PM May 13th

MarisFan61
Yes -- my "half" of a possible reason, from among the 2½ reasons I could imagine, was they we're the rats in the maze. The main reason it was just half a reason (really should be more like a sixteenth or less) is that I don't think anyone would go to the trouble of such a whole Twitter thing for that. It would be just a thing on here.
11:52 PM May 13th

FrankD
If you could quantify the influence of polling, that would be YUGE. Or, maybe its us readers/commentators who are the rats in the maze being "watched" ... I think its the former but I'd laugh my ass off it it was the latter. Any way, a fun ongoing topic .... and for what its worth it sucked me in to comment many times. A
And its an easy out for Bill to write stuff without answering HeyBills .....
10:39 PM May 13th

MarisFan61
Further guess on my part:
While that might be sufficiently interesting to some people to serve as a central interest in doing such an amount of work, I wouldn't think it would be such a thing for Bill.

signed, one who often imagines he knows what he doesn't

My tentative conclusion is that he's mainly just testing a method, and that the subject matter is pretty incidental.
10:19 PM May 13th

FrankD
After a couple of Barley Pops I may have stumbled on a rationale for this Twitter Polling exercise. There is very little news occurring between samples of this poll. By daily collecting and reporting the results of this 'poll' the effect of crowd behavior based on the last poll(s) may be analyzed. Say poll 1 has candidates A, B, C and Z in the top 4. Next poll has A, B, Z, and C. Is the perception now that Z is a hot item? Then if the polls alone effect the latter choices, Z should soon take the lead. No new news to the Twitter followers except changes in polling information ...... Even a statis of the poll standings may indicate the crowd reluctant to choose something different from what they perceive as their peers preferences.....
8:53 PM May 13th

FrankD
I did my own poll today. A vast majority of people do not care who is running for president at this time: note that this poll was taken in Iowa. I will continue to report the results of my poll along with Bills further polls.
8:40 PM May 13th

MarisFan61
You don't want to answer what's your central interest in doing all this work on this poll?

(I've tried to make it easy by giving a multiple choice.) :-)
4:24 PM May 13th

Poll Results 5-13-2019

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