Poll Results 5-8-2019

May 8, 2019
 

Poll Results 5-8-2019

 

            These are the updated results of my Presidential tracking poll:

 

Position

First

Last

Current

Comment

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1068

 

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1057

 

3

Kamala

Harris

1050

 

 

     

 

4

Joe

Biden

941

Up 11 as result of poll.

 

     

 

5

John

Kasich

626

 

 

     

 

6

Donald

Trump

585

 

7

Bernie

Sanders

525

Up 11; technical re-evaluation

8

Beto

O'Rourke

518

Up 9; technical re-adjustment

 

     

 

9

John

Hickenlooper

457

Down 11, technical re-adjustment

 

     

 

10

Cory

Booker

396

 

11

Amy

Klobuchar

372

 

 

     

 

12

Bill

Weld

277

 

13

Howard

Schultz

233

Up 4 as a result of poll.

14

Andrew

Yang

232

 

15

Julian

Castro

220

 

16

Kirsten

Gillibrand

213

 

 

     

 

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

195

Up 6, technical re-evaluation

18

Jeff

Flake

187

 

19

Jay

Inslee

168

Up 36 after good poll results.

20

Tim

Ryan

163

Down 48 after terrible poll.

21

Eric

Swallwell

126

 

22

Michael

Bennet

113

 

 

     

 

23

John

Delaney

74

 

24

Mike

Gravel

68

 

25

Seth

Moulton

68

 

26

Wayne

Messam

35

 

27

Marrianne

Williamson

33

 

 

            If there is no comment, that means that the candidate’s number is within 3 points of what it was yesterday. 

            Today’s poll is Castro, O’Rourke, Flake and Gabbard.   The predicted results based on the numbers above would be Castro, 20%, O’Rourke, 46%, Flake and Gabbard, 17% each.   I wouldn’t give out that information if I thought it would influence the poll, but I assume the number of people who come here to read this is pretty limited, and most of you have already voted. 

            Tomorrow’s poll will match Kasich directly against Trump, with Bennet and Gravel the other two.  Bennet should over-achieve in the poll, I would guess, since 60-65% of my respondents appear to be Democrats.  This may give us a misleading result for Bennet, which, since it is only the second time he has been polled, will mess with the data for a little while.   But the system should be able to correct for that pretty soon. 

 
 

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

OldBackstop
Follow up....80 percent of Twitter users aren't American, and somewhere between 6 percent (twitter's very suspiciously low number) and 15% are below 18, and can't vote anyway.

So....slap....wake up, big fella. Baseball needs you.
10:41 PM May 8th
 
OldBackstop
Bill, it would nice to hear you weigh in on this, but:

1. polls of the public mean next to nothing, except on American Idol. Polls of Twidiots mean even less. Likely voters are all that matters. Rasmussen is the only major polling firm regularly polling likely voters, and Trump does quite well there.

2. National popular vote numbers mean nothing in an electoral college vote -- worse than nothing, it's misleading. Republicans have literally given up on state-wide messaging efforts in NY, Cal and a few other states where Dems roll up 60 plus percent margins. Then Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Florida, and a few other states decide the presidency.

3. "Approval" numbers are silly. POTUS approval among non likely voters is as relevant as it is among Croatians. Trump has a higher job approval rating than Obama did at this point in his presidency. If, with all the vitriol Trump has brought upon himself, he still has 50% job approval, the Dems should be terrified when they actually produce, from their Tower of Babel, a candidate with a record to shoot at.

Polling twidiots is an utter waste of your time.
10:16 PM May 8th
 
FrankD
fun to read but totally meaningless. You've said this is just those who sent in to your query. And probably a Mass. bias too. And even it this was a reasonably sampled study - who gives a crap this far out. I got a question you should put out: Which MLB teams will win their divisions this year? Do this poll every week.

I should add: I'm taking money that the Faux-Indian Warren will not be the Dems pick. And I'll take bets that Biden and Bernie won't be nominees either: they are too Pale, Stale, and Male .........
10:04 PM May 8th
 
evanecurb
I wonder what would happen if you added a non-candidate to one of the daily polls. For example today's poll's candidates are Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, John Kasich, Ringo Starr, and Quickdraw* McGraw. The result might tell you something about your Twitter followers. In most groups, the joke candidate always outpolls the serious candidates.

*Not sure if it's Quickdraw or Quick Draw.​
9:41 PM May 8th
 
Steven Goldleaf
Bill--you think Bennet will overachieve because two-thirds of your readers seem to be Dems? Not because he's up against two Republicans and a 139-year-old Democrat who isn't really running? I think Bennet has no business running for President, and I'm going to vote for him without a second thought It's like asking who I'd rather be stuck in a room with, a lion, a tiger, a rabid dog, or a parakeet.​
2:45 PM May 8th
 
 
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