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Poll Results 5-8-2019

By Bill James

May 8, 2019

Poll Results 5-8-2019

These are the updated results of my Presidential tracking poll:

Position	First	Last	Current	Comment
1	Elizabeth	Warren	1068
2	Pete	Buttigieg	1057
3	Kamala	Harris	1050

4	Joe	Biden	941	Up 11 as result of poll.

5	John	Kasich	626

6	Donald	Trump	585
7	Bernie	Sanders	525	Up 11; technical re-evaluation
8	Beto	O'Rourke	518	Up 9; technical re-adjustment

9	John	Hickenlooper	457	Down 11, technical re-adjustment

10	Cory	Booker	396
11	Amy	Klobuchar	372

12	Bill	Weld	277
13	Howard	Schultz	233	Up 4 as a result of poll.
14	Andrew	Yang	232
15	Julian	Castro	220
16	Kirsten	Gillibrand	213

17	Tulsi	Gabbard	195	Up 6, technical re-evaluation
18	Jeff	Flake	187
19	Jay	Inslee	168	Up 36 after good poll results.
20	Tim	Ryan	163	Down 48 after terrible poll.
21	Eric	Swallwell	126
22	Michael	Bennet	113

23	John	Delaney	74
24	Mike	Gravel	68
25	Seth	Moulton	68
26	Wayne	Messam	35
27	Marrianne	Williamson	33

If there is no comment, that means that the candidate’s number is within 3 points of what it was yesterday.

Today’s poll is Castro, O’Rourke, Flake and Gabbard. The predicted results based on the numbers above would be Castro, 20%, O’Rourke, 46%, Flake and Gabbard, 17% each. I wouldn’t give out that information if I thought it would influence the poll, but I assume the number of people who come here to read this is pretty limited, and most of you have already voted.

Tomorrow’s poll will match Kasich directly against Trump, with Bennet and Gravel the other two. Bennet should over-achieve in the poll, I would guess, since 60-65% of my respondents appear to be Democrats. This may give us a misleading result for Bennet, which, since it is only the second time he has been polled, will mess with the data for a little while. But the system should be able to correct for that pretty soon.

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

OldBackstop
Follow up....80 percent of Twitter users aren't American, and somewhere between 6 percent (twitter's very suspiciously low number) and 15% are below 18, and can't vote anyway.

So....slap....wake up, big fella. Baseball needs you.
10:41 PM May 8th

OldBackstop
Bill, it would nice to hear you weigh in on this, but:

1. polls of the public mean next to nothing, except on American Idol. Polls of Twidiots mean even less. Likely voters are all that matters. Rasmussen is the only major polling firm regularly polling likely voters, and Trump does quite well there.

2. National popular vote numbers mean nothing in an electoral college vote -- worse than nothing, it's misleading. Republicans have literally given up on state-wide messaging efforts in NY, Cal and a few other states where Dems roll up 60 plus percent margins. Then Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Florida, and a few other states decide the presidency.

3. "Approval" numbers are silly. POTUS approval among non likely voters is as relevant as it is among Croatians. Trump has a higher job approval rating than Obama did at this point in his presidency. If, with all the vitriol Trump has brought upon himself, he still has 50% job approval, the Dems should be terrified when they actually produce, from their Tower of Babel, a candidate with a record to shoot at.

Polling twidiots is an utter waste of your time.
10:16 PM May 8th

FrankD
fun to read but totally meaningless. You've said this is just those who sent in to your query. And probably a Mass. bias too. And even it this was a reasonably sampled study - who gives a crap this far out. I got a question you should put out: Which MLB teams will win their divisions this year? Do this poll every week.

I should add: I'm taking money that the Faux-Indian Warren will not be the Dems pick. And I'll take bets that Biden and Bernie won't be nominees either: they are too Pale, Stale, and Male .........
10:04 PM May 8th

evanecurb
I wonder what would happen if you added a non-candidate to one of the daily polls. For example today's poll's candidates are Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, John Kasich, Ringo Starr, and Quickdraw* McGraw. The result might tell you something about your Twitter followers. In most groups, the joke candidate always outpolls the serious candidates.

*Not sure if it's Quickdraw or Quick Draw.
9:41 PM May 8th

Steven Goldleaf
Bill--you think Bennet will overachieve because two-thirds of your readers seem to be Dems? Not because he's up against two Republicans and a 139-year-old Democrat who isn't really running? I think Bennet has no business running for President, and I'm going to vote for him without a second thought It's like asking who I'd rather be stuck in a room with, a lion, a tiger, a rabid dog, or a parakeet.
2:45 PM May 8th

Poll Results 5-8-2019

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