Poll Results 5-9-2019

May 9, 2019
 

Poll Results 5-9-2019

 

            Yesterday’s Poll Results closely matched what we would have expected based on the position of the candidates in these ratings, so there’s not too much change in the numbers.   Based on previous polls, I would have expected in yesterday’s group that Julian Castro would get 20% support, Tulsi Gabbard 17%, Jeff Flake 17%, and Beto O’Rourke 46%.   Castro and Flake did get exactly those numbers, 20% and 17%, while O’Rourke over-achieved by 4% (50-46) and Gabbard under-achieved by 4% (13-17).  This could indicate some small movement in the voters, or it could indicate that the previous measurements were slightly in error, or it could indicate simply that yesterday’s polling group was a little different than previous polling groups.   These are the updated scores, representing the number of supporters for each candidate, per 10,000 voters:

Position

First

Last

Current

 

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1065

 

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1060

 

3

Kamala

Harris

1051

 

 

   

 

 

4

Joe

Biden

941

 

 

   

 

 

5

John

Kasich

628

 

 

   

 

 

6

Donald

Trump

585

 

7

Beto

O'Rourke

528

Up 10 points as result of poll

8

Bernie

Sanders

525

 

 

   

 

 

9

John

Hickenlooper

456

 

 

   

 

 

10

Cory

Booker

396

 

11

Amy

Klobuchar

374

 

 

   

 

 

12

Bill

Weld

276

 

13

Howard

Schultz

232

 

14

Andrew

Yang

231

 

15

Julian

Castro

224

Up 4 points; technical adjustment

16

Kirsten

Gillibrand

214

 

 

   

 

 

17

Jeff

Flake

190

 

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

179

Down 16 points as result of Poll

19

Jay

Inslee

168

 

20

Tim

Ryan

162

 

21

Eric

Swallwell

126

 

22

Michael

Bennet

113

 

 

   

 

 

23

John

Delaney

74

 

24

Mike

Gravel

69

 

25

Seth

Moulton

68

 

26

Wayne

Messam

35

 

27

Marrianne

Williamson

32

 

 

            Everybody is within 3 points of where they were yesterday except Castro, O’Rourke and Gabbard.   O’Rourke’s small over-performance in yesterday’s poll (50 to 46) was enough to improve his score by 10 points, which was enough to push him into 7th place ahead of Bernie Sanders.   Gabbard’s under-performance (13 to 17) cost her 16 points, which was enough to drop her from 17th to 18th in the standings.   Otherwise nothing really happened.  

            Today’s poll is a really interesting one, with Kasich and Trump, and we’ll see what that does to the numbers.    Julian Castro will be back on the ballot tomorrow, against the leader—Elizabeth Warren—and also Seth Moulton and John Hickenlooper.    Hickenlooper is the interesting one there.   Based on the numbers we have, we would expect Hickenlooper to get about 25% in the voting, but intuitively that number seems high, like there could be something not quite right with it.   It will be interesting to see. 

 

 

Poll Results 5-9-2019

 

 

 

            Yesterday’s Poll Results closely matched what we would have expected based on the position of the candidates in these ratings, so there’s not too much change in the numbers.   Based on previous polls, I would have expected in yesterday’s group that Julian Castro would get 20% support, Tulsi Gabbard 17%, Jeff Flake 17%, and Beto O’Rourke 46%.   Castro and Flake did get exactly those numbers, 20% and 17%, while O’Rourke over-achieved by 4% (50-46) and Gabbard under-achieved by 4% (13-17).  This could indicate some small movement in the voters, or it could indicate that the previous measurements were slightly in error, or it could indicate simply that yesterday’s polling group was a little different than previous polling groups.   These are the updated scores, representing the number of supporters for each candidate, per 10,000 voters:

 

Position

First

Last

Current

 

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1065

 

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1060

 

3

Kamala

Harris

1051

 

 

   

 

 

4

Joe

Biden

941

 

 

   

 

 

5

John

Kasich

628

 

 

   

 

 

6

Donald

Trump

585

 

7

Beto

O'Rourke

528

Up 10 points as result of poll

8

Bernie

Sanders

525

 

 

   

 

 

9

John

Hickenlooper

456

 

 

   

 

 

10

Cory

Booker

396

 

11

Amy

Klobuchar

374

 

 

   

 

 

12

Bill

Weld

276

 

13

Howard

Schultz

232

 

14

Andrew

Yang

231

 

15

Julian

Castro

224

Up 4 points; technical adjustment

16

Kirsten

Gillibrand

214

 

 

   

 

 

17

Jeff

Flake

190

 

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

179

Down 16 points as result of Poll

19

Jay

Inslee

168

 

20

Tim

Ryan

162

 

21

Eric

Swallwell

126

 

22

Michael

Bennet

113

 

 

   

 

 

23

John

Delaney

74

 

24

Mike

Gravel

69

 

25

Seth

Moulton

68

 

26

Wayne

Messam

35

 

27

Marrianne

Williamson

32

 

 

 

 

            Everybody is within 3 points of where they were yesterday except Castro, O’Rourke and Gabbard.   O’Rourke’s small over-performance in yesterday’s poll (50 to 46) was enough to improve his score by 10 points, which was enough to push him into 7th place ahead of Bernie Sanders.   Gabbard’s under-performance (13 to 17) cost her 16 points, which was enough to drop her from 17th to 18th in the standings.   Otherwise nothing really happened.  

 

            Today’s poll is a really interesting one, with Kasich and Trump, and we’ll see what that does to the numbers.    Julian Castro will be back on the ballot tomorrow, against the leader—Elizabeth Warren—and also Seth Moulton and John Hickenlooper.    Hickenlooper is the interesting one there.   Based on the numbers we have, we would expect Hickenlooper to get about 25% in the voting, but intuitively that number seems high, like there could be something not quite right with it.   It will be interesting to see. 

 

 

 

 

Poll Results 5-9-2019

 

 

 

            Yesterday’s Poll Results closely matched what we would have expected based on the position of the candidates in these ratings, so there’s not too much change in the numbers.   Based on previous polls, I would have expected in yesterday’s group that Julian Castro would get 20% support, Tulsi Gabbard 17%, Jeff Flake 17%, and Beto O’Rourke 46%.   Castro and Flake did get exactly those numbers, 20% and 17%, while O’Rourke over-achieved by 4% (50-46) and Gabbard under-achieved by 4% (13-17).  This could indicate some small movement in the voters, or it could indicate that the previous measurements were slightly in error, or it could indicate simply that yesterday’s polling group was a little different than previous polling groups.   These are the updated scores, representing the number of supporters for each candidate, per 10,000 voters:

 

Position

First

Last

Current

 

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1065

 

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1060

 

3

Kamala

Harris

1051

 

 

   

 

 

4

Joe

Biden

941

 

 

   

 

 

5

John

Kasich

628

 

 

   

 

 

6

Donald

Trump

585

 

7

Beto

O'Rourke

528

Up 10 points as result of poll

8

Bernie

Sanders

525

 

 

   

 

 

9

John

Hickenlooper

456

 

 

   

 

 

10

Cory

Booker

396

 

11

Amy

Klobuchar

374

 

 

   

 

 

12

Bill

Weld

276

 

13

Howard

Schultz

232

 

14

Andrew

Yang

231

 

15

Julian

Castro

224

Up 4 points; technical adjustment

16

Kirsten

Gillibrand

214

 

 

   

 

 

17

Jeff

Flake

190

 

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

179

Down 16 points as result of Poll

19

Jay

Inslee

168

 

20

Tim

Ryan

162

 

21

Eric

Swallwell

126

 

22

Michael

Bennet

113

 

 

   

 

 

23

John

Delaney

74

 

24

Mike

Gravel

69

 

25

Seth

Moulton

68

 

26

Wayne

Messam

35

 

27

Marrianne

Williamson

32

 

 

 

 

            Everybody is within 3 points of where they were yesterday except Castro, O’Rourke and Gabbard.   O’Rourke’s small over-performance in yesterday’s poll (50 to 46) was enough to improve his score by 10 points, which was enough to push him into 7th place ahead of Bernie Sanders.   Gabbard’s under-performance (13 to 17) cost her 16 points, which was enough to drop her from 17th to 18th in the standings.   Otherwise nothing really happened.  

 

            Today’s poll is a really interesting one, with Kasich and Trump, and we’ll see what that does to the numbers.    Julian Castro will be back on the ballot tomorrow, against the leader—Elizabeth Warren—and also Seth Moulton and John Hickenlooper.    Hickenlooper is the interesting one there.   Based on the numbers we have, we would expect Hickenlooper to get about 25% in the voting, but intuitively that number seems high, like there could be something not quite right with it.   It will be interesting to see.  

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (3 Comments, most recent shown first)

JohnPontoon
I'm commenting in the least-surly comments section for this experiment so far. Hi, everybody! I'm just happy to be here.
1:17 AM May 13th
 
Steven Goldleaf
I thought it was different all three times.
11:27 AM May 9th
 
bjames
But have you read it all three times?
9:15 AM May 9th
 
 
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