Poll Results 5-9-2019

            Yesterday’s Poll Results closely matched what we would have expected based on the position of the candidates in these ratings, so there’s not too much change in the numbers.   Based on previous polls, I would have expected in yesterday’s group that Julian Castro would get 20% support, Tulsi Gabbard 17%, Jeff Flake 17%, and Beto O’Rourke 46%.   Castro and Flake did get exactly those numbers, 20% and 17%, while O’Rourke over-achieved by 4% (50-46) and Gabbard under-achieved by 4% (13-17).  This could indicate some small movement in the voters, or it could indicate that the previous measurements were slightly in error, or it could indicate simply that yesterday’s polling group was a little different than previous polling groups.   These are the updated scores, representing the number of supporters for each candidate, per 10,000 voters:

            Everybody is within 3 points of where they were yesterday except Castro, O’Rourke and Gabbard.   O’Rourke’s small over-performance in yesterday’s poll (50 to 46) was enough to improve his score by 10 points, which was enough to push him into 7^th place ahead of Bernie Sanders.   Gabbard’s under-performance (13 to 17) cost her 16 points, which was enough to drop her from 17^th to 18^th in the standings.   Otherwise nothing really happened.  

            Today’s poll is a really interesting one, with Kasich and Trump, and we’ll see what that does to the numbers.    Julian Castro will be back on the ballot tomorrow, against the leader—Elizabeth Warren—and also Seth Moulton and John Hickenlooper.    Hickenlooper is the interesting one there.   Based on the numbers we have, we would expect Hickenlooper to get about 25% in the voting, but intuitively that number seems high, like there could be something not quite right with it.   It will be interesting to see.