Poll Report May 21, 2019
Julian Castro had an extremely good day in yesterday’s poll, beating expectations (based on previous polls) by 18 points. He was expected to win the poll, but with 40% of the vote; he actually won it, but with 58%. The other three candidates (Delaney, Ryan and de Blasio) all fell short of expectations by about the same percentages, so Castro was drawing equally from all three. These are the updated standings:
|
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Current
|
|
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1232
|
|
|
2
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1027
|
|
|
3
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
945
|
|
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
892
|
|
|
5
|
John
|
Kasich
|
709
|
|
|
6
|
Stacey
|
Abrams
|
550
|
|
|
7
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
536
|
|
|
8
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
496
|
|
|
9
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
469
|
|
|
10
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
453
|
|
|
11
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
410
|
|
|
12
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
348
|
|
|
13
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
275
|
|
|
14
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
248
|
|
|
15
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
237
|
|
|
16
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
221
|
UP
|
|
17
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
197
|
|
|
18
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
195
|
|
|
19
|
Jeff
|
Flake
|
181
|
|
|
20
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
178
|
|
|
21
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
157
|
|
|
22
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
141
|
FALLING
|
|
23
|
Eric
|
Swallwell
|
118
|
|
|
24
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
79
|
|
|
25
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
71
|
|
|
26
|
John
|
Delaney
|
67
|
DOWN
|
|
27
|
Marrianne
|
Williamson
|
38
|
|
|
28
|
Wayne
|
Messam
|
32
|
|
Tim Ryan has had three straight poor performances in my polls, and has fallen from a high of 213 on May 6 to his current score of 141. On May 6 I had Ryan basically even with Julian Castro, just a little behind him. Yesterday Castro beat Ryan 58-22.