Poll Report May 21, 2019
Julian Castro had an extremely good day in yesterday’s poll, beating expectations (based on previous polls) by 18 points. He was expected to win the poll, but with 40% of the vote; he actually won it, but with 58%. The other three candidates (Delaney, Ryan and de Blasio) all fell short of expectations by about the same percentages, so Castro was drawing equally from all three. These are the updated standings:
Rank
First
Last
Current
1
Elizabeth
Warren
1232
2
Pete
Buttigieg
1027
3
Joe
Biden
945
4
Kamala
Harris
892
5
John
Kasich
709
6
Stacey
Abrams
550
7
Beto
O'Rourke
536
8
Bernie
Sanders
496
9
Donald
Trump
469
10
Cory
Booker
453
11
Amy
Klobuchar
410
12
Hickenlooper
348
13
Bill
Weld
275
14
Kirsten
Gillibrand
248
15
Andrew
Yang
237
16
Julian
Castro
221
UP
17
Howard
Schultz
197
18
Tulsi
Gabbard
195
19
Jeff
Flake
181
20
Jay
Inslee
178
21
Michael
Bennet
157
22
Tim
Ryan
141
FALLING
23
Eric
Swallwell
118
24
Mike
Gravel
79
25
Seth
Moulton
71
26
Delaney
67
DOWN
27
Marrianne
Williamson
38
28
Wayne
Messam
32
Tim Ryan has had three straight poor performances in my polls, and has fallen from a high of 213 on May 6 to his current score of 141. On May 6 I had Ryan basically even with Julian Castro, just a little behind him. Yesterday Castro beat Ryan 58-22.