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Projecting Billy Hamilton, 2.0

By Dave Fleming

September 7, 2013

The newest version of Billy Hamilton made his major league debut today, immediately clinching the 2013 Award for ‘Best Debut That Exactly Reflects What That Player is All About.’ Entering a scoreless game to pinch-run in the bottom of the seventh, Hamilton stole second on the first pitch. He was so ahead of Yadier Molina’s throw that he slid in feet-first. He then scored the only run of the game on a Todd Frazier double. BH2 was, for one afternoon, exactly who we all thought he’d be.

I was really excited to see Hamilton. I started paying attention to baseball in 1988, a year that marks the end of the century’s high-water mark for epic base stealing seasons. I’ll try to illustrate what I mean with a table: here are the sixty-six players who have collected 80+ stolen bases in a single season:

Rank	Name	Year	Steals
1	--	1887	138
2	Rickey!	1982	130
3	--	1887	129
4	Lou Brock	1974	118
5	--	1887	117
6	--	1889	111
6	--	1891	111
6	--	1887	111
9	Vince!	1985	110
10	Vince!	1987	109
10	--	1888	109
12	Rickey!	1983	108
13	Vince!	1986	107
14	--	1891	106
15	Maury Wills	1962	104
16	--	1887	103
16	--	1888	103
18	--	1887	102
18	--	1890	102
20	--	1894	100
20	Rickey!	1980	100
22	--	1889	99
23	--	1895	97
23	Ron LeFlore	1980	97
23	--	1890	97
26	--	1915	96
26	Omar Moreno	1980	96
28	--	1887	95
28	--	1888	95
30	--	1887	94
30	Maury Wills	1965	94
32	Rickey!	1988	93
32	--	1888	93
34	--	1889	91
35	Tim Raines	1983	90
36	--	1889	89
36	--	1887	89
38	--	1912	88
38	--	1887	88
38	--	1887	88
38	--	1892	88
42	Rickey!	1986	87
42	--	1896	87
42	--	1891	87
42	--	1888	87
46	--	1887	86
47	--	1890	85
47	--	1891	85
47	--	1887	85
50	--	1887	84
50	--	1896	84
50	--	1887	84
50	--	1890	84
54	--	1911	83
54	--	1896	83
54	--	1890	83
54	Willie Wilson	1979	83
58	--	1888	82
58	--	1888	82
60	1911	81
60	Vince!	1988	81
60	--	1910	81
63	Eric Davis	1986	80
63	Rickey!	1985	80
63	--	1889	80
63	--	1888	80

Here’s the trick part: I’ve only included the names of players you might have actually seen play. The least-recent player whose name appears on this list is Maury Willis, who cracked the 80-barrier in 1962 and 1965. The last player before Willis to crack 80+ was Ty Cobb, way back in 1915. If you saw Cobb in 1915, you should absolutely get a free subscription to this website.

So all those blank spots are players from 1915 or earlier. In fact, we can condense the periods of really big stolen base stealers into three distinct eras:

Era 1: The Villainous Motley-Minded Clotpole Years - (18-- - 1915)

This is basically baseball from the time of its conception, until the time that Babe Ruth ruined baseball by making it insanely popular. And yes, I used an old-timey insult generator to come up with that title. Call me a fobbing sheep-bitter, if you must.

Era 2: The ‘That Stolen Base Record Sure Looks Beatable’ Years - (1962-1974)

For which we have exactly two representatives:

Name	Year	Steals
Maury Wills	1962	104
Maury Wills	1965	94
Lou Brock	1974	118

And finally:

Era 3: The ‘This Had Nothing to Do With Cocaine. Nothing! What’s That NOISE?!’ Years - (1979-1988)

It was the best of times:

Name	Year	Steals	Name	Year	Steals
Willie Wilson	1979	83	Rickey!	1985	80
Rickey!	1980	100	Vince!	1986	107
Ron LeFlore	1980	97	Rickey!	1986	87
Omar Moreno	1980	96	Eric Davis	1986	80
Rickey!	1982	130	Vince!	1987	109
Rickey!	1983	108	Rickey!	1988	93
Tim Raines	1983	90	Vince!	1988	81
Vince!	1985	110

This last group is dominated by two players, Rickey and Vince Coleman. I was a month old when Henderson reached the majors, so I don’t have any first-hand memories about what people thought about him. I remember Coleman, who was coming off his third straight ‘century’ in 1987. It’s fitting that Coleman and Rickey close out the list: no one has stolen 80 or more bases since they both crossed the line in 1988.

I watched a little baseball in 1988, but I wouldn’t say that I watched too many Cardinals or Yankees games that year. I must’ve seen Rickey a few times on TV38, but I don’t have a distinct memory of Henderson in a Yankee uniform. I didn’t really tune in to the Rickey show until his second tour with Oakland.

This is to say I’ve never actually witnessed an 80-steal season, never mind a 100-steal season. So Billy Hamilton represents the great, fast hope for me: the first player who has a very good chance to put up an insane number of stolen bases.

* * *

So what kind of player is Hamilton going to be? How does he compare with the other players listed?

It is no use comparing Billy Hamilton to the likes of Hugh Nicol, Arlie Latham, and Jim Fogarty. It’s probably not worth it to compare him to Billy Hamilton version 1.0, a man who posted a career on-base percentage of .455. One hundred and ten years separate the careers of the two Billy Hamilton’s…that’s a gap too wide to cross.

There are no useful comparables from the second era, either. Maury Willis didn’t reach the majors until he was twenty-seven: Billy Hamilton will turn twenty-three this week. And although Lou Brock’s minor league record isn’t full, it shows that the young Brock had decent power: 14 HR and a .535 slugging percentage, to go along with a .361 BA for the Saint Cloud Rox. Billy Hamilton hasn’t shown that kind of power in the minors.

From the contemporary files, Rickey and Tim Raines don’t make for good matches: both players reached the majors at twenty-one, after tearing up Triple-A as twenty-year olds:

Name	Year	Age	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Rickey	1979	20	71	80	11	8	3	44	.309	.430	.448
Raines	1980	20	108	152	23	11	6	77	.354	.439	.501

Raines was playing in Denver, which explains the edge he has on homeruns. Both were exceptional players in Triple-A, something Billy Hamilton hasn’t been: Hamilton finished the year with a .256/.308/.356 batting line in Louisville. And both were younger players: Hamilton isn’t in their league.

Eric Davis, the great ‘what-if’ precursor to Grady Sizemore, had too much power in the minors to be a reasonable comparable to Hamilton.

Ron LeFlore is exempt on the same age issue that exempted Maury Wills: he started in the minors at twenty-five, though his skill sets and minor league numbers do correspond closely with Hamilton’s. LeFlore has had a life that seems deserving of that cliché ‘it could only happen in America.’ For those who have missed the story, the broad-strokes: LeFlore grew up in a bad neighborhood in Detroit, getting into drugs and crime at an early age. He was in prison just about as soon as he was eligible, where news of his play on the baseball team reached Billy Martin, then managing the Tigers. Martin arranged a try-out: LeFlore was paroled and in the majors a few years later. He was a good player who got better as he played: if he had gotten an earlier start he might’ve won a batting title or two.

So that leaves us with three players: Omar Moreno, Willie Wilson, and Vince Coleman. How do they compare to Billy Hamilton?

As it turns out, the four are very comparable. Checking in on their minor league numbers, year-by-year:

Name	Year	Age	Lg	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Billy H.	2011	20	A	135	153	18	9	3	103	.278	.340	.360
Vince C.	1982	20	Rk	58	53	2	1	0	43	.250	.348	.269
Willie W.	1975	19	A	127	132	18	4	8	76	.272	.323	.374
Omar M.	1973	20	A, AAA	139	154	22	9	10	78	.285	.383	.414

All four showed impressive speed in their first go-around in the minors, though there are a few slight differences. Vince Coleman didn’t show any kind of pop during that first stint, posting a slugging percentage almost 100 points below his on-base percentage. Omar Moreno appears as the ‘real’ hitter in the group, which explains his jump to Triple-A ball.

Hamilton, at this point, seems closest to Willie Wilson, who was blazingly fast. I don’t have any idea how many of Wilson’s eight HR’s were inside-the-park jobs.

Going ahead another year:

Name	Year	Age	Lg	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Billy H.	2012	21	A+, AA	132	159	22	14	2	155	.311	.410	.420
Vince C.	1983	21	A	113	156	8	7	0	145	.350	.431	.399
Willie W.	1976	20	AA	107	98	13	6	1	37	.253	.309	.325
Omar M.	1974	21	AA,AAA	135	140	18	6	7	73	.286	.394	.391

This was Billy Hamilton’s breakout season, when he stole 155 bases. It is also the year Vince Coleman broke out, though Vince’s breakout happened in Single-A. Omar Moreno, in a second stint at Triple-A, treaded water, and Vince and Billy have essentially caught up, posting good batting averages, with on-base and slugging percentages being about equal.

Willie drops from the pack here, with a lower on-base percentage than the rest. He didn’t get the memo that you walk to first, and then run to second.

Name	Year	Age	Lg	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Billy H.	2013	22	AAA	123	129	18	4	6	75	.256	.308	.343
Vince C.	1984	22	AAA	152	156	21	7	4	101	.257	.323	.334
Willie W.	1977	21	AAA	132	139	10	6	4	74	.281	.323	.349
Omar M.	1975	22	AAA	130	127	20	2	9	39	.284	.357	.398

All of ‘em have made it to Triple-A, and have essentially evened out as players. Omar Moreno takes back the lead in on-base and slugging percentages, and probably rates, as a prospect, as the best hitter of the bunch. Vince seems the speed-first player: the player focused on getting to first any way possible, so he could steal his way around the bases. Willie sits in the middle: as fast as Coleman and a slightly better hitter than Coleman.

That brings us up to Billy Hamilton’s present. To project his next three years, we can take a look at how Vince, Willie, and Omar during their first years in the major.

Except…things get a little complicated. Vince Coleman was given a starting gig his first year in the majors. Willie Wilson and Omar Moreno had to spend a year as pinch-runners/fourth outfielders before they got full-time work in the majors. This skews the ages a bit: Vince and Willie now show even with Billy Hamilton, while Omar is a year ahead.

Here’s each players’ first full year in the majors:

Name	Year	Age	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Vince C.	1985	23	151	170	20	10	1	110	.267	.320	.335
Willie W.	1979	23	154	185	18	13	6	83	.315	.351	.420
Omar M.	1977	24	150	118	19	9	7	53	.240	.295	.358

Of the three, it was Wilson who had the most impressive first year in the majors, posting a solid batting line to go along with 83 stolen bases. Moreno, the best minor league hitter, struggled during his first full-time gig in the majors. Coleman splits the difference between ‘em.

Moving on to Year-2:

Name	Year	Age	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Vince	1986	24	154	139	13	8	0	107	.232	.301	.280
Willie	1980	24	161	230	28	15	3	79	.326	.357	.421
Omar	1978	25	155	121	15	7	2	71	.235	.339	.303

One step forward, two steps back. Willie Wilson, the best first-year full-timer, turned in an even better second season, posting a robust .326 batting average to go along with a lead-leading 133 runs scored, 230 hits, and 13 triples. He finished fourth in the AL MVP vote. This was the best season of Wilson’s career.

Vince and Omar each declined in their second year. Vince declined across the board, while Omar traded some of his power for an uptick in on-base percentage.

Onto Year-3:

Name	Year	Age	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Vince	1987	25	151	180	14	10	3	109	.289	.363	.358
Willie	1981	25	102	133	10	7	1	34	.303	.335	.364
Omar	1979	26	162	196	21	12	8	77	.282	.333	.381

Vince and Omar bounced back. Actually, both Coleman and Moreno put together the best seasons of their careers here: while both players would remain good players, they never again reached this level of ability again. Omar Moreno would steal 96 bases in 1980, but that masked a poor .301 on-base percentage. Coleman led the NL in steals for the first six years of his career, but he was never a particularly great player. Neither was Omar Moreno.

Willie Wilson was, for four years, a great player. He tallied an impressive 8.5 rWAR in 1980, and had two years over 6.0. He wasn’t quite as great during the strike-shortened 1981 as he was in 1980, but he went on and won the batting title in 1982.

That was Wilson’s last great season….he had other productive years after 1982, but his best years were 1979-1982, when he was 23-26 years old. Like Omar and Vince, Wilson peaked early.

Which, getting back to Billy Hamilton, gives us at one pretty solid prediction about his career: whatever his peak is as a major league player, we’ll probably see it between 2014 and 2017. And the decline from that peak will happen quickly.

Also: he’s going to steal a lot of bases. That’s the other take-away. If you average those nine major league seasons of Moreno, Coleman, and Wilson (and give Wilson a few ticks for the strike year) you get an average of about 82 steals per year. It’s not only possible that Billy Hamilton, given a full year of playing time, will steal 80 bases…it’s likely. It’s very possible he’ll get to 100.

My sense, having watched a few of Billy’s minor league at-bats, is that he’s probably closer to Coleman than to Moreno or Wilson: a true speed guy whose value will depend on his ability to make contact and show discipline at the plate, and play good defense. Willie Wilson was, at least for a few years, a terrific hitter; Moreno showed the potential to be a good hitter. I don’t think Billy Hamilton 2.0 has shown that ability yet. He certainly could, but I’m not holding my breath.

Which is fine. Actually, it’s great: Hamilton is the purest speed-first player since Coleman. To be successful in the major leagues, he has to be really good at the various components that can make use of that speed: getting on base, reading pitchers and catchers and defenses and balls-in-play when on base, and playing defense. Hamilton could do all that and be a 3+ win player for the Reds for a few seasons…that’s extremely valuable, and it’ll be really fun to watch.

And I might get to see my first 100+ stolen base season, which would be fantastic. Here’s my prediction for year one of the Hamilton Era:

Name	Year	Age	G	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Hamilton	2014	25	142	144	17	9	4	87	.267	.312	.344

Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.

COMMENTS (10 Comments, most recent shown first)

DaveFleming
Using Gose or Dee Gordon as comparables to Hamilton is a stretch.

Viewed purely as hitters, they are certainly comparable to BH2, as are hundreds of minor leaguers. But Hamilton's abilities on the base paths put him in a different class.

Dee Gordon stole 53 bases in Double-A, in 73 attempts, a 73% success rate. Same level, playing a year younger, Hamilton stole 104 bases in 125 attempts, for an 83% success rate.

Gose and Dee Gordon are marginal major league players because having the ability to steal 50-60 bases at a 75% success rate just isn't enough to balance out a .275/.325/.350 slash-line.

Where Hamilton breaks from the pack is how much further he pushes that equation. Is the ability to steal 100-120 bases, at an 85% success rate enough to make up for a batting line of .275/.325/.350?
4:08 PM Sep 9th

Florko
Dee Gordon says Hi
11:25 AM Sep 9th

DaveFleming
On Anthony Gose...it's likely that Gose didn't get the same attention as a prospect because his minor league stolen base totals are about half of Hamilton's.

Gose stole 70 (in 85 attempts) in AA. That was his most impressive year, which is less than half of Hamilton's total at the same level (155 steals).

And Gose he struggled to maintain that success rate in Triple-A...in 208 games (2012-2013), Gose stole 56 bases, but was caught 25 times, a success rate a hair under 70%. Hamilton's been comfortably above 80% at every level he's played.

Gose might be fast; but being fast doesn't always translate to being a good baserunner (or a good outfielder). We're still waiting to see what kind of hitter/fielder Hamilton will be, but I'm convinced that he is, right now, an elite baserunner.

Anyone know what his defense has looked like in Louisville?
3:19 AM Sep 9th

chuck
This article over at Fangraphs on the play has a gif of the steal:
www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-obviousness-of-billy-hamilton/

A good throw likely has him out, but what's amazing to me every time I watch it is how fast Hamilton covers the last 10 to 15 feet before the bag. One moment he's about in a line where the ump is positioned, and the next split second he's at the bag, with a very clean, efficient slide.
4:32 PM Sep 8th

mbrown_84
Very interesting article. As a Toronto guy, I'm wondering why Anthony Gose never got the same anticipation. How much faster could Hamilton be then Gose. Gose might be the fastest player I've ever seen on the baseball diamond. For those who have seen their fair share of both players, please tell me, are their speeds at least on the same page??
8:42 AM Sep 8th

DaveFleming
A couple notes about Hamilton, which I should've added: he's a natural right-handed hitter, but the Reds are trying to develop him into a switch-hitter.

His 2013 AAA performance isn't too impressive, but it's worth remembering that a) he spent the year trying to learn how to play outfield, and b) he's still trying to figure out how to hit left-handed. By all accounts, he's got the defense part of the equation down, and it's a positive sign that his on-base percentage was better against right-handed pitchers than against lefties (.317 to .285).

I'd note, too, that Hamilton did improve over the second half of the minor league season:

Pre-AS Break: .243/.300/.331
Post-AS Break: .283/.324/.367

He's certainly not a hitter yet, but he doesn't need to actually hit: he just needs to make enough contact to get on base.
8:06 PM Sep 7th

jemanji
Thanks for the wit and wisdom Dave. :- )

Wasn't aware that Willie Wilson had that kind of impact in terms of Win Shares / WAR. That gives us the 30,000-foot view, that Hamilton has a target of 'franchise-type player' as opposed to 'overrated mediocre player.' A game-changing perspective, and you laid our your reasoning in very convincing fashion.

............

I was born in the '60's, and so recall Rickey's 130-base season pretty clearly ... it was pretty much a feel of 'Okay, he's on first now, he's going, and you'll be lucky to get him.' I recall some Mariner scrub walking Henderson and Dave Niehaus snarling, "You might as well put him over there on third base."

There have been SB kings who make the game look 'broken,' so to speak, and I hope Hamilton becomes one of those.

Great article!

-Jeff

5:37 PM Sep 7th

ventboys
OPS isn't a very useful thumbnail metric for obvious leadoff types; it overly punishes them for not having power when their batting order position virtually guarantees that they will bat with the bases empty over half the time unless their pitchers all hit like Babe Ruth. Hamilton will have a career if (1) Dusty likes his defense and (2) he can keep his onbase percentage high enough to avoid it from being bandied about in the media like Tebow's completion percentage.
2:53 PM Sep 7th

Florko
Hamilton cannot hit, he has a career .728 OPS in the minors including a sub.700 in AAA. If you cant hit in the minors you aint hitting in The League
9:08 AM Sep 7th

77royals
He didn't actually beat Molina's throw. The throw had Hamilton by a huge margin. The only issue was the throw was wide.

Wong had to go 10 feet towards 1st base to catch it, and dive back into for the tag, and Hamilton barely made it in.

Any kind of decent throw and he was out. I realize Hamilton's speed made Molina rush his throw somewhat, but to say he beat throw easily is not correct.
4:51 AM Sep 7th

Projecting Billy Hamilton, 2.0

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