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Projecting The Day's Best Value Performers

April 23, 2019
A couple weeks ago Sports Info Solutions tweeted a poll asking followers to guess who projected to have the highest chance of a home run that night. Among four sluggers, the most popular and correct answer was Khris Davis, who was given a 28% chance to homer by the SIS Daily Fantasy Projections. Davis proceeded to hit two homers that night as well as the following day, when he was also given the highest home run probability.

The information in this Stat of the Week is powered by the predictive analytics used in Sports Info Solutions’ "Model 4" Daily Fantasy baseball projections, which consider factors such as player splits, park factors, weather, umpires, batted ball characteristics, and more. The same team of in-house SIS Video Scouts that collect in-game data used by MLB teams is updating information throughout the day to reflect starting lineups, lineup position, and roster moves. The model can answer questions like:


Who is most likely to hit a home run today?

Nolan Arenado and Mike Trout both make the top three, with Arenado’s teammate Trevor Story between them. Patrick Corbin has been one of the most consistent pitchers since the start of the 2018 season, but Coors Field is not the friendliest place for a lefty to pitch in when you have the 15th-highest flyball percentage in baseball this season (43%). Story has a career 33% HR/FB rate at home against left-handed pitchers.


Top HR vs. No HR players - April 23

Player % Chance of HR Fair Over
Nolan Arenado 26% +286
Trevor Story 24% +309
Mike Trout 23% +337


The "Fair Over" column lists the odds that the model would deem as favorable to get a positive return on investment.


Who are the pitchers most likely to record more than 6.5 strikeouts today?

The top choices for today are Corbin (against the Rockies) and Mets starter Zack Wheeler (against the Phillies). But each has just above a 50% chance to finish with more than 6.5 strikeouts.

Highest chance of over 6.5 strikeouts - April 23

Player % Chance over 6.5 K’s Fair Over
Patrick Corbin 52% -109
Zack Wheeler 52% -107
Carlos Carrasco 49% +105


Why are we sharing these numbers? They're part of our new prop bet analysis tool, You can learn about it by clicking the link.


COMMENTS (1 Comment)

Is Bill ever going to answer Hey Bills anymore?
9:31 PM Apr 29th
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