The Yankees decision to not offer Robinson Cano a ten-year contract at an annual rate of $24 million dollars is, on the surface, a completely reasonable decision. Robinson Cano is approach his Age-31 season: though he has been perhaps the healthiest and most reliable player in baseball over the last four seasons, his production will absolutely decline over the last years of his contract. He will not be an MVP-level player at forty-one. He likely will not be an MVP-caliber player at thirty-eight.
The Mariners decided to sign Cano to a long-term contract because he is an MVP-caliber player now, and has been for each of the last four seasons. That he has been the forgotten man in the two years of the Trout/Cabrera debate is irrelevant: Cano is an excellent baseball player; a likely Hall-of-Famer and a player who could rate in the top-ten, all-time, at his position.
The Yankees decision not to overpay for those late years is, viewed in isolation, a perfectly justifiably decision. It is certainly a strange decision: Cano signing with Seattle marks the first time a Great Yankee Hitter has left the team in the prime of his career. The Yankees, more than any other franchise, tend to keep their homegrown greats. ‘Tend’ is too soft: they have always kept those players. Until Cano.
Unfortunately, the Yankees decision to let Cano walk did not occur in isolation: it occurred amidst a flurry of deals that have made this off-season the most interesting one in recent memory. Their primary moves were:
-Signing Brian McCann (Age 30) to a 5 year/$85 million dollar contract.
-Signing Jacoby Ellsbury (Age 30) to a 7 year/$153 million dollar contract.
-Signing Carlos Beltran (Age 37) to a 3 year/$45 million dollar contract.
For the duration of this article, let’s leave Brian McCann out of the conversation. The Yankees acquired McCann because they had no production from their catchers in 2013, and Brian McCann, his habit of playing morality cop aside, is a very talented baseball player, and worth the investment the Yankees made.
Which leaves us Ellsbury and Beltran. The Yankees are paying this:
Player
|
Year
|
Age
|
Salary
|
Ellsbury
|
2014
|
30
|
$21.85
|
Ellsbury
|
2015
|
31
|
$21.85
|
Ellsbury
|
2016
|
32
|
$21.85
|
Ellsbury
|
2017
|
33
|
$21.85
|
Ellsbury
|
2018
|
34
|
$21.85
|
Ellsbury
|
2019
|
35
|
$21.85
|
Ellsbury
|
2020
|
36
|
$21.85
|
Beltran
|
2014
|
37
|
$15
|
Beltran
|
2015
|
38
|
$15
|
Beltran
|
2016
|
39
|
$15
|
Total
|
2014-2020
|
30-39
|
$198
|
As it turns out, Ellsbury and Beltran’s ages work out perfectly: the Yankees are paying for Ellsbury his Age-30 to Age-36 seasons, and they’re paying Beltran for his Age-37 through Age-39 seasons. They are paying a shade under $200 million for ten years of Ellsbury and Beltran.
The Seattle Mariners are paying Robinson Cano this:
Player
|
Year
|
Age
|
Salary
|
Cano
|
2014
|
31
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2015
|
32
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2016
|
33
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2017
|
34
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2018
|
35
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2019
|
36
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2020
|
37
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2021
|
38
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2022
|
39
|
$24
|
Cano
|
2023
|
40
|
$24
|
Total
|
2014-2023
|
31-40
|
$240
|
They are paying a bit more than $40 million dollars extra, for ten years of Robinson Cano.
Except: that isn’t exactly right. The Yankees will be paying their money between 2014 and 2020…the Mariners are spreading out their payments through 2023. Just crunching the numbers:
Year
|
Yankees
|
Mariners
|
2014
|
$36.85
|
$24
|
2015
|
$36.85
|
$24
|
2016
|
$36.85
|
$24
|
2017
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
2018
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
2019
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
2020
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
2021
|
$0
|
$24
|
2022
|
$0
|
$24
|
2023
|
$0
|
$24
|
Total
|
$198
|
$240
|
The Yankees payments are front-loaded: they are paying most of their dough over the next three years, and all of it over the next seven years. The Mariners have it spread out over longer.
This brings the balance a tad closer: a million dollars is more valuable in 2014 than it will be in 2023. The true difference between what the Yankees are paying for Beltran/Ellsbury and what the Mariners are paying for Cano is lessthan the forty million dollars that shows. The Mariners are still paying more, but they aren’t paying that much more.
Which leads us to projecting the production of these two players. The always-excellent Dave Cameron, in an article about Cano posted over at Fangraphs used a standard aging curve of a half win decline ever year through a player’s Age-33 season, and then a 0.7 win decline for each year after that.
Jacoby Ellsbury posted an fWAR of 5.8. Robinson Cano posted an fWAR of 6.0. Beltran posted an fWAR of 2.0.Using a set rate of anticipated decline, we have this:
Player
|
Year
|
Age
|
fWAR
|
Player
|
Year
|
Age
|
fWAR
|
Ellsbury
|
2014
|
30
|
5.3
|
Cano
|
2014
|
31
|
5.5
|
Ellsbury
|
2015
|
31
|
4.8
|
Cano
|
2015
|
32
|
5.0
|
Ellsbury
|
2016
|
32
|
4.3
|
Cano
|
2016
|
33
|
4.5
|
Ellsbury
|
2017
|
33
|
3.8
|
Cano
|
2017
|
34
|
3.8
|
Ellsbury
|
2018
|
34
|
3.1
|
Cano
|
2018
|
35
|
3.1
|
Ellsbury
|
2019
|
35
|
2.4
|
Cano
|
2019
|
36
|
2.4
|
Ellsbury
|
2020
|
36
|
1.7
|
Cano
|
2020
|
37
|
1.7
|
Beltran
|
2014
|
37
|
1.3
|
Cano
|
2021
|
38
|
1.0
|
Beltran
|
2015
|
38
|
0.6
|
Cano
|
2022
|
39
|
0.3
|
Beltran
|
2016
|
39
|
-0.1
|
Cano
|
2023
|
40
|
-0.4
|
Total
|
2014-2020
|
30-39
|
27.2
|
Total
|
2014-2023
|
31-40
|
26.9
|
This is a draw, essentially. I used the 2013 numbers as a starting point: this probably biases the results a little bit towards Ellsbury, who had a comparable year to Cano, at least by fWAR. If we had applied these numbers from 2012 (Cano had a 7.7 fWAR, Ellsbury a 1.4 fWAR), the estimates would swing in Cano’s favor.
These are long-term projections, and they shouldn't be granted too much predictive power. The chief point I want to make is that we’re talking about similar expected values: Robinson Cano from Age-31 to 40 is likely to be as valuable as the combination of Ellsbury and Beltran. The Yankees didn’t save a lot of money in choosing to sign Beltran and Ellsbury over Cano, and they didn’t get a significant increase in anticipated production. At best, they’re treading water.
Except there is one further contextual element to consider: the likely scenario that Brett Gardner will be traded for starting pitching. The Yankees currently have a surplus of outfielders: in addition to Ellsbury and Beltran, they have Brett Gardner, Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, and Ichiro Suzuki. Add that the presence of McCann (who probably won’t catch every day), A-Rod (who will need spells at DH if his suspension is lightened) and Teixeira, and the Yankees have a lot of bats for a few spots. Even if they simply release Vernon Wells, their team is crowded with overpaid hitters. Brett Gardner is the only player on that list whose contract and age is attractive enough to other teams to get something of value back to the Yankees. .
One of the reasons I was surprised the Yankees signed Ellsbury is that they already had, in Brett Gardner, a player very much like Jacoby Ellsbury. Brett Gardner, forever underrated, is about 85% the player that Jacoby Ellsbury is, for 15% of Ellsbury’s salary.
Even if the Yankees don’t trade Gardner, they will play him less in 2014. It is worth noting that Brett Gardner was the second most-valuable player on the Yankees last year:
Player
|
Win Shares
|
rWAR
|
Robinson Cano
|
35
|
7.6
|
Brett Gardner
|
22
|
4.2
|
Hiroki Kuroda
|
16
|
4.1
|
Mariano Rivera
|
16
|
2.5
|
The Yankees have lost their best player from 2013. To make up for that loss, they have acquired talent that will either a) reduce the playing time of their second-best player, or b) force them to trade that second player to fill roster spots they could not fill on the free agent marketplace.
None of this matters, of course, if the Yankees are a better team going forward than they were at the close of 2013. But I don’t know that they are a better team. They have switched out the following positions (using 2013 Win Shares):
Pos
|
Player
|
Win Shares
|
Player
|
Win Shares
|
CF
|
Ellsbury
|
22
|
Gardner
|
22
|
RF
|
Beltran
|
22
|
Granderson
|
4
|
2B
|
Johnson
|
12
|
Cano
|
35
|
Let’s consider the team at each position: is it better to sign Jacoby Ellsbury to a 7/$153 contract, or is it better to work out an extension with Brett Gardner, a player who is almost the same player as Ellsbury, but still under team control and not perceived as an elite player.
With deference to Ellsbury’s superior talent, I think the wise decision would’ve been to try and extend Gardner, who would demand far fewer years, and far fewer dollars than Ellsbury. Gardner, for a long time, has been the forgotten man on a team of big-name players: an All-Star level player who has never made an All-Star team.
How about Carlos Beltran or Curtis Granderson? Both players are making the same annual salary ($15 million), but Granderson is getting an extra year from the Mets. Which contract would you rather have?
Carlos Beltran is one of my five favorite players in baseball, so my own bias is to take the switch-hitter. But the objective answer is that Curtis Granderson will likely be a better value over the duration of his contract than Beltran. Granderson is approaching his Age-33 season, and though he missed most of 2013 with fluke hit-by-pitch injuries, he was productive in the two seasons before, hitting 40+ homers and playing at least 156 games each year. Beltran is going to be thirty-seven in 2014…even with his superior baseball talent, those four years he has on Granderson makes this at least neutral.
Which brings us to Kelly Johnson and Robinson Cano. Whatever player you think Robinson Cano will be in 2020, or 2022, there’s no doubt that he is a much better player than anyone the Yankees can get to play second base, at least in the next few years. It’s a massive loss.
The Yankees, in spending money on McCann, dealt directly with an obvious problem on their team: they had no production at catcher, so they went out and acquired the best available catcher.
The Yankees, in acquiring Ellsbury, spent money to solve a problem that they didn’t have: in Gardner, they had a centerfielder that was almost as good as Ellsbury, and much cheaper. In signing Ellsbury, the Yankees wound up created a big problem on their roster: whereas they had previously enjoyed more production from the second base position than any other team in baseball, they now have Kelly Johnson at second.
In essence, they exchanged a strength they absolutely cannot replace, for a strength that they already had.
The Yankees offseason plan, at least so far, has been to acquire as many shiny new toys as they could. Maybe this is a good public relations move - maybe the signings of Ellsbury and Beltran and McCann will be attractive to season-ticket holders - but I don’t think the team is significantly improved.
Signing McCann was a good decision.
But swapping out Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and (in all likelihood) Brett Gardner in exchange for Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Kelly Johnson does not make the Yankees a better team. It makes them worse.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.