Since the start of the season, Jake Arrieta has surged past Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer to rank as the #2 starting pitcher in baseball, behind only Clayton Kershaw.    Arrieta, coming off a Cy Young season, is now 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA.   Kershaw is still far, far ahead, and one can’t foresee right now when there could be a transition in the #1 spot.

Jon Lester Edging Up

Since the start of the season I have sort of been rooting for Jon Lester, because on the MLB TV show in January I got into a little bit of a tangle with my good friend Brian Kenny over Lester’s current place in the baseball world.   I was using a very different set of criteria to evaluate starting pitchers than the other guests on the show were, the other guests being Vince Genarro and Mike Pitriello.   They were all basing their ratings on stuff like 2015 WHIP and post-All-Star break OPS allowed, so I don’t think any of them even had Lester in their top ten.  I was just relying on the Starting Pitcher rankings, which is a system that I believe in.   Lester last year was 11-12 with a 3.34 ERA, plus a couple of losses in the post season, but I had him as the number five lefty, behind Kershaw, Bumgarner, Price and Sale.    To me, he takes the mound every fifth day and had a 207-47 strikeout/walk ratio last year.   So I’ve been rooting for him to have a solid season, which so far he has, with a 2.21 ERA. 

Lester last year allowed 44 stolen bases in 32 starts, which is. ..you know, really too many.   So far this season he has allowed 2 stolen bases in 3 starts with 2 runners caught stealing, so he may have put in a little work on that; I don’t know.   He two-hopped a throw to first on bunt in his last start, creating another viral video, but got the out somehow anyway.

Jon Lester and Cole Hamels have been more or less joined at the hip since they were drafted in 2002, and they still are.   Hamels last year was 13-8, 3.66 ERA, and (like Lester) had been dropped from the top ten by the other analysts on the show.   I still had him 6^th.   To me, what a pitcher has proven over a period of time is more important than how he was pitching in August of last season—as long as he is still in the rotation and still earning his morning oatmeal.   And Hamels, like Lester, has so far been justifying my faith in him, with a 2.95 ERA.   Lester is now 128-80 in his career, Hamels 123-91, making both of them still marginally viable Hall of Fame candidates, although they need to have big seasons ahead of them.   But when you’re 32 years old and can still be talked about in the Hall of Fame conversation, you are having a good career. 

Corey Kluber drops out of the top ten

Corey Kluber, 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA, has dropped out of the top ten after opening the season in the 8^th position.    He’s not really getting Klubed around, though.   His strikeout/walk ratio is 19-5, and he has given up on two Dugout Groaners.   He should be OK. 

Dickey, Ross in freefall

R. A. Dickey and Tyson Ross have been the fastest-falling pitchers in the early season.   Dickey, also known as Rad Ickey, has a 6.75 ERA, although maybe he should be given a little edge because he has mostly just been pitching against the Red Sox.    Tyson (Chickens) Ross has made only one start because of a shoulder injury., and got shelled in that one, but is expected to return to the rotation soon.

Syndergaard on fire

Noah Syndergaard, with 29 strikeouts in three starts and an 0.90 ERA, has moved from 66^th to 45^th since the season started, and, the way he is pitching, has a chance to rank as a top ten starter by mid-season.

Kennedy running for President

The Royals took a lot of flak for signing Ian Kennedy to a $70-million contract in January, but Kennedy is one of the fastest-moving pitchers in this year’s rankings, moving up from 41^st to 30^th since the season started.    He is 2-0 with an 0.66 ERA.   The only other pitcher (in that range) who has made a similar move is J. A. Happ, also 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA, who has moved from 53^rd to 40^th.    Danny Salazar and Masahiro Tanakawaka are also making strides forward in that portion of the chart. . .the top #2 starters portion of the chart. 

Miller falling fast

Arizona’s Shelby Miller has fallen from 34^th to 46^th since the start of the season.   He is winless with an 8.53 ERA through three starts, has stuck out only 9 batters and has walked 8.    Miller last year was the majors’ top tough-luck pitcher and one of the biggest tough-luck pitchers of this century, finishing 6-17 although he actually pitched really well.   But so far this year, he’s just not getting outs. 

Maeda is Golden

The highest-rated pitcher in the majors who was unrated at the start of the season is Miguel Gonzalez, but that’s a fluke. . .he was cut from the rankings after he was released by the Orioles, restored to the rankings when he was signed by the White Sox, although he hasn’t pitched yet this season.   The highest-ranked pitcher who was letimately unranked at the start of the season is Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers, who has a 0.47 ERA through three starts.  He currently ranks 143^rd.   We need to see more than three starts. 

In danger of losing their footing

The next pitchers to fall out of the ratings if they don’t get on the mound and pitch a decent game pretty soon:  Jason Vargas of the Royals, Mike Wright of the Orioles, Christian Bergman of the Rockies and Shane Greene of the Tigers.

Others Rising and falling

Other pitchers moving up in the rankings so far this year include Jose Quintana, Francisco Liriano, Gio Gonzalez, Garrett Richards, Matt Harvey, Jake Odorizzi, Hector Santiago, Jaime Garcia, Mat Latos, Jeremy Hellickson, Chad Bettis, Charlie Morton, Jose Fernandez, Jarad Eickhoff and Vincent Velasquez. 

Those falling include Lance Lynn, Collin McHugh, Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Wade Miley, Jake Peavy, Lance McCullers, Danny Duffy, Matt Garza and Adam Wainwright.

The Starting Pitcher Rankings are updated daily, and are available to you in the Ratings section of Bill James Online.   I love them, but I haven’t done as much as I should to promote them.