Let’s start this week by making a list of the top 50 starting pitchers in the major leagues right now.   The chart below gives the top 50, ranked off to the right.  The numbers to the left show where those pitchers were ranked at the start of the season, and where they were ranked one month ago today, April 24:

Surging

                The guys in the top 50 who are surging in the rankings are Zack Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, Wandy Rodriguez, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Brandon Morrow, Bud Norris and Brandon Beachy.

Fading

                The guys who are still in the top 50 but who are losing position within the top 50 are Ian Kennedy, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Hiroki Kuroda, Ubaldo Jimenez and  the inactive, but still highly ranked, Chris Carpenter. 

The Actual News

                Among the top-ranked pitchers, there are really two things that are news.   First, Justin Verlander is pulling ahead of the field.   Verlander was ranked #1 going into the season, but by a razor thin margin over Roy Halladay—such a thin margin that my friend Dave Pinto, mimicking the rankings for his own display over at http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/PitcherRatings.py, actually had Halladay ahead of Verlander, due to some little glitch somewhere (we couldn’t figure out what it was, and it doesn’t really matter.)

                But Verlander, continuing to dominate as he did last year, has now pulled 24 points ahead of the field.    How safe a lead is that?

                It’s good for about two starts, maybe three.  If a top pitcher doesn’t pitch well, he loses about 2% of his rating points per outing.   Verlander is ahead by a little more than 4%--but Kershaw or someone else could also move up.   In the pre-history of the rankings—what the rankings would have been over the decades, if we were doing them—there have been many times when some pitcher has been 20 points ahead in first place, and then two weeks later wasn’t in first place any more.   He’s got a little cushion, but it won’t last very long if he doesn’t pitch well.

                And the other real news is that Roy Halladay is no longer a serious candidate to be considered the number one starting pitcher in the game.   Halladay was the #1 pitcher in the game most of 2009 and 2010, and has been very near that status for most of the last decade.   He was a serious candidate to regain the #1 spot at any moment as little as three weeks ago.  

                But, while Halladay hasn’t pitched badly, he no longer is at that level, at least not right now.   Clayton Kershaw, the other Cy Young winner from 2011, has become the #2 guy, and he also is developing a little bit of a gap between him and the field, although his margin is so thin that he could easily lose it in one cycle.   One start. ..one for him and one for whoever is trying to pull ahead of him.

The Last Man Standing

                Through May 17 there were three major league pitchers who had made at least six starts and had not had a Game Score under 50:  Cliff Lee, Anibal Sanchez and Lance Lynn.    Lance Lynn bit the dust on May 18 at Dodger Stadium, with a Game Score of 41.    Sanchez pitched in Cleveland on May 19, giving up 2 runs in 7 innings, registering a solid 57 although he lost the game.    Cliff Lee had a tough outing against the Red Sox on May 20.

                And the winner of the Last Man Standing Competition is:  Anibal Sanchez.    Sanchez is the only major league pitcher who has not had a subpar outing this season.

                For the rest of the pitchers, let’s look at them by division:

                 OK, here’s the "key" to these charts.    The first two columns, obviously, are the pitcher’s names, with the #1 starter on each team ranked first, #2 second, etc.   The next six columns are the pitcher’s Game Scores during the last five start windows, which are April 29 to May 3, May 4 to May 8, May 9 to May 13, May 14 to May 18, and May 19 to May 23. 

                The letter grades attempt to summarize how well the pitcher pitched (a) in the first six start windows of the season, and (b) in the last five start windows.   It’s a little awkward, because we’re comparing pitchers who have made one start and maybe pitched sensationally well to pitchers who have made five starts in there and pitched fairly well and pitchers who have made three starts and pitched not well and pitchers who have made two starts and pitched awful.   You can’t always very successfully reduce those things to one dimension.   I did the best I could. 

                To the right of that, of course, is the pitcher’s current ranking score, and his current rank among all major league starting pitchers.    And, to the far right, his rank on the team.

                I have the Dodgers ranked as of now as having the third-best starting rotation in the major leagues, the Giants 6^th, the Diamondbacks 7^th, the Rockiest 26^th, and the Padres dead last.  Padre fans may not like that, but. . .these are young pitchers with little history of success, pitching in a pitcher-friendly park that makes them look better than they are.    The National League Central:

                 Here we have a real issue; the Cardinals won the World Series last year, they are in first place in their division, and I have them ranked as having the weakest starting rotation in their division—even worse than the Pirates.

                Have I lost my marbles?  Well. . .we’ll see.  The Cardinals won the World last year with Chris Carpenter and Edwin Jackson, who aren’t there now.   Wainwright is coming off a sensational outing, and maybe he can pull back up to the level he was two years ago.   Maybe Lance Lynn will hold up and prove to be a Cy Young candidate, as he has been so far.  

                But based on the proven strength of these pitchers, I think there are some legitimate issues.   Kyle Loshse and Jake Westbrook were pitching great earlier in the year, but they’re not, now.    I think it is a valid issue whether the Cardinals have enough starting pitching to stay in first place. 

                And it’s not like I’m arguing that their starting pitching is turrible; I’m just not sure it is outstanding.    I have Milwaukee, with Greinke and Gallardo, ranked as having the #5 starting rotation in the majors, Cincinnati 8^th, the Cubs 16^th, and Houston, Pittsburgh and St. Louis 21-22-23.   Houston is coming around.   They had an awful rotation a couple of years ago, but Wandy Rodriguez is a legitimate #1 now, Bud Norris has broken into the top 50, and Jay Happ has had a couple of good starts.    The back end of their rotation is still questionable.   The NL East:

                Philadelphia, of course, has the billion-dollar rotation that ranks #1 in the major leagues, even though they are temporarily in last place.  Everybody else in the division could be described as "rapidly improving".    Ozzie Guillen always had outstanding success with his starting pitchers in Chicago, and he’s carried it over to Miami.    Adding Buerhle solidified the staff.  Anibal has been great, Zambrano has pitched well.   It’s a solid staff.  

                I have Miami ranked 11^th in the majors, Washington 12^th, Atlanta 14^th.    Those are all upper-level starting staffs.   But even New York, despite the devastating loss of Pelfrey, is coming around; I have them ranked 24^th, whereas a month ago they would have been a candidate for the bottom rung.  Dickey is pitching well, Santana is beginning to re-establish himself.  Dillon Gee—13-6 last year--isn’t the worst starter in the league.  Niese is in and out, but he has some good games.   They’re starting to get better.    A. L. West:

                I have the Angels ranked as having the #2 starting rotation in baseball, behind the Phillies, Texas 13^th, Seattle 19^th, Oakland 27^th.     People are frustrated with the Angels, mired in last place, but as of this morning they are two games out of second place in their division.  A lot depends on Danny the Rabbit.  If Haren pitches OK, the Angels will be a candidate for a Wild Card.

                Pitchers who pitched well early but have pitched poorly of late:   Barry Zito, Joe Saunders, Ross Detwiler, Mike Minor, Bartolo Colon.     Pitchers who struggled early but are pitching well now:  Mike Leake, Kyle Kendrick, Ervin Santana, Kevin Millwood, Hector No-AC, Max Scherzer, Phil Hughes, Jeff Samardzija.  The AL Central:

                Cleveland’s rotation is backward; they are getting good performances from the back end of their rotation, but inconsistent outings from their One and Two guys.    Kansas City has had to shuffle their rotation constantly, but Chen and Paulino have kept the situation from getting really ugly.   I have the Tigers’ rotation rated fourth in the majors, and that’s the only above-average rotation in the division.   White Sox 15^th, Cleveland 17^th, Kansas City 25^th, Minnesota 29^th.    The emergence of P. J. Walters and Scott Diamond, replacing Liam Hendricks and Felipe Liriano in the rotation, gives the Twins some hope, but at this point they’ve got about three cylinders, and two of those have very short histories.      American League East:

                Tampa Bay’s rotation is good—I have them the 9^th-ranked quintet in the majors—but it’s beatable.    The Yankees’ rotation really is almost as good (10^th), the Red Sox 18^th, Toronto 20^th, Baltimore 28^th.

                Which, I know, will annoy the Merry Marylanders, who are in first place.    Nobody there is a proven commodity, and, honestly, nobody there is pitching really outstanding baseball.   I respect what they’ve been able to do early in the season, and we’ll see how they hold up.   They don’t really have a #1 or #2 guy; they’ve just got a bunch of young pitchers who have pitched pretty well so far. 

                It’s the theme of the week; two of the teams with the best rotations are in last place, both being teams whose nicknames are derived from the city name (Philadelphia and the Angels), and two teams with the most suspect rotations are in first place, both of those being teams with bird names (the Cardinals and Orioles).  

                David Price has moved ahead of James Shields as Tampa Bay’s #1 guy.   It looks stupid to have Freddy Garcia ranked ahead of Andy Pettitte, and I don’t know that I have a good defense for that, other than that it won’t take very much time to straighten that out if Pettitte continues to get results. 

                Thanks for reading.  

                Bill James