Yesterday, during the 162nd game of the regular season, the Atlanta Braves witnessed the best pitching performance they’ve had all season:
9 IP, 4 Hits, 0 walks, 0 runs scored.
All of those four hits were singles. Moreover, none of those hits came in the same inning: the Pirates never had a rally going.
On Friday the Braves will be one of four teams playing ‘Sudden Death’ Wild Card games, along with the Cardinals, Orioles, and A’s Rangers. Considering the importance of this win-or-go-home game, it might be useful for the Braves (and future Wild Card teams) to consider how the Braves put up such a notable performance.
Here’s the pitching box score for Atlanta’s 162nd game:
|
Pitching
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
BB
|
SO
|
|
Ben Sheets
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
Luis Avilan
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Julio Teheran
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Randall Delgado
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
Cory Gearrin
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Eric O'Flaherty
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Jonny Venters
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
Craig Kimbrel
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
Atlanta used eight pitchers to dispatch the Pirates. They had no ‘starter.’ And they got one of the best pitched games of the season.
(We need a term for this. Let’s call this ‘bullpenning.’ Bullpenning is when a team deliberately doesn’t use a starter, and instead gives everyone in the bullpen one or two innings. Describing yesterday’s game, you could say: “The Atlanta Braves bullpenned the Pirates, 4-0.’ Bullpenning: it’s a real thing.)
The other Wild Card teams should do exactly what the Braves did. They should bullpen (v).
* * *
The ideal scenario for a Wild Card team would be starting their #1 pitcher. Unfortunately, only one of the four Wild Card teams this year (the Braves) had enough breathing room to set their rotation. The Rangers didn’t know they were the Wild Card until halfway through game 162. The Orioles had to consider the possibility of two games, a tie-breaker for the A.L. East, and a sudden-death game for the Wild Card. The Cardinals had a bit more breathing room than their AL counterparts, but they were battling the Brewers and Dodgers through the weekend.
It’s probably rare that Wild Card teams, in this new format, will have the luxury of having an ace to throw out for the sudden-death game….the furious battle down the stretch will be an annual occurrence in the coming years.
Considering that, it’s worth considering some alternate theories on how to maximize one’s chances in the sudden-death game. As I see it, there are numerous advantages to ‘bullpenning’
-You can take significant advantage of platoon splits. In just about every inning, at least two of the players scheduled to bat will have a distinct platoon advantage/disadvantage. If there are two right-handed batters and a lefty, you have a right-hander start that inning. You can also adjust based on other strengths and weaknesses of the hitters due up. If two of the hitter struggle against off-speed stuff, bring in a pitcher who has a good changeup.
-You are bringing pitchers in pitchers who are fresh, and you can take them out at a moment’s notice. This is a biggie: with starting pitchers, there is an obvious tendency, in the early innings, to let the pitcher ‘work through’ early struggles. Can’t find the plate? We’ll give you another inning. Give up a few hits? Well, no one’s warmed up, so go ahead and pitch to a few more. This tendency buries teams…it’s a big factor why the A’s were behind early yesterday, and it’s a big factor why the Rangers lost the division late. ‘Bullpenning’ allows to you stop the bleeding immediately.
-You are able to set a rotation for the next round of the playoffs. If you’re a team lucky enough to have a #1 or #2 guy available for the Wild Card game, you won’t be able to start that pitcher until late in the Division Series. Why not save your best starter for Game #1 and #4?
-Relief Pitchers are better than starters. Okay, that’s not true. What is true is that using a pitcher for one or two innings is vastly more efficient than using a pitcher for 5-6 innings. Starting pitchers in baseball last year had an ERA of 4.19. Relief pitchers had an ERA of 3.67.
This isn’t because starters are worse that relief pitchers. It’s because using a pitcher for one or two innings is more efficient than using them for 5-6 innings. The usage is actually greater than the disparity of quality between starters and relievers. Starting pitchers are certainly better pitchers, as a whole, but how relief pitchers are usedmore than makes up for any disparity in talent/ability.
* * *
There are, I’m sure, more reasons to try ‘bullpenning’ in one-game playoffs. But I wanted to post this before the playoffs start, so I have to wrap it up.
The new existence of sudden-death playoff games in baseball presents an interesting new challenge for managers and players. The four Wild Card teams experience a strange ‘shift’ in mindset: they have to go from trying to win a long, 162-game season, to trying to win a 1-game season.
Because there have been so few one-game playoffs in history, no one has spent too much time examining optimal or alternative strategies that a team could use in sudden-death scenarios. Now that a one-game playoff will be a twice annual events, it’s time to start thinking about strategies for a one-game season.
Yesterday, the Atlanta Braves inadvertently tried a very interesting strategy....to surprising success. It is unlikely that any of the Wild Card teams will use that strategy tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone tries ‘bullpenning’ in the sudden-death game in years to come.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.