Just as I thought we might be making some progress on agreeing as to what is a Superstar, Ken Rosenthal or someone being quoted by Ken Rosenthal described Matt Chapman as a Superstar.   I don’t know what to say about that.  If you identify Matt Chapman as a Superstar, Jose Iglesias can’t be far behind. There really are no standards.

              This article is written more for my own benefit than for yours; I am mostly just documenting what I have done so that the next time I get back to this subject, or someone else does, we can avoid re-capturing the same ground.  I have made a few adjustments to the method.  The adjusted method clearly does work better than the system did as I reported it a few days ago, so I wanted to put the changes on record. 

              After posting the article So Who Is a Superstar, I made nine adjustments to the system.   I’ll list the nine adjustments here and then at the end I’ll explain the whole system so that nobody in the future would have to piece it together.   The nine adjustments are:

              1)  I added 2 points to the Adjusted Win Shares of the batting champion each year.

              2)  I added 1 point to the Adjusted Win Shares of any player who hit .300 with 500 or more plate appearances. 

              3)  I added 1 point to the Adjusted Win Shares of any player who drove in 100 runs.

              The logic of points 1-3 is that certain accomplishments have more impact on a player’s star perception than on his actual value.   Win Shares seeks to give each player the credit that he deserves for his performance in each area—his actual value.  But when we are trying to document star recognition rather than true value, we need to increase the weight given to things that artificially increase a player’s star recognition. 

              4)  I added 3 points to each PITCHER who led the league in strikeouts.

              5)  I added 1 point to any pitcher up to the year 2000 who had at least four more wins than losses.   After 2000 I didn’t add those points, because won-lost records are no longer as central to star perception for a pitcher as they once were.

              6)  I gave a pitcher one-third of a point for each (a) World Series Game Appearance, (b) World Series Start, (c) World Series Win and (d) World Series Save. 

              7)  I increased the points given for winning the Cy Young Award or the MVP Award from 8 to 10. 

              The logic of points 4-7 is similar to that of points 1-3, but also I was trying to increase the relative values for pitchers, since many or most of the deserving Superstars who failed to register as Superstars before were pitchers. . ..Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, Steve Carlton, etc.   Pitchers were being slighted or under-valued somehow, so I adjusted for that.    I had initially credited a player who won an MVP or Cy Young Award with 10 points, changed it to 8 at the last moment (before) out of concern that this might create "false positives"; that is, players who weren’t Superstars but show up as Superstars because they won an MVP Award.   After studying the issue in more depth I concluded that this was not an actual problem, so I reverted to 10 points, which helps star pitchers more than it does position players, thus helps pitchers relative to position players. 

              8)  I changed the "Carry Forward" multiplier from .65 to .62. . . I’ll explain better later.

              9)  I explained before that I had put in place a "batting average adjustment", which is this.   Batting averages, historically, have been over-valued.   Players who hit for very high averages have tended to become stars and superstars, even if their overall performance did not justify that, while players who had lower batting averages but very high secondary averages, like Charlie Keller, Dwight Evans, Darrell Evans, Ken Singleton and Gene Tenace, have been undervalued.  

              Secondary bases are extra bases on hits (Total Bases minus hits), walks, and stolen bases.   The rule I used before was that if a player had 20% more secondary bases than hits, then I would reduce his adjusted Win Shares by 5%.   If he had 20% FEWER secondary bases than hits, then I would increase his adjusted Win Shares by 5%--counter-adjusting for the bias.  

              I changed that here in two ways.   First, in figuring secondary bases, I divided stolen bases by two, since speed does play a role in star perception.   Second, I increased the 5% adjustment to 6%.  

              Some of you commented earlier that I should give credit for All-Star game performance, which I agree that I should.   However, I don’t have All Star Game appearances in the spreadsheet that I use for these calculations and it would take me several days of boring data entry to add them to the spreadsheet, so we’re going to have to let that go for now.  I could also do something with Gold Gloves or other awards, but I have not done that yet. 

              Anyway, there is no question that these adjustments do substantially improve the system.   Regarding for the question of who are the "transcendent stars" who will be recognized as Superstars as long as they are active players, the system now gives us a top-12 candidates list of Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Walter Johnson, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Joe Morgan, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner,  and Ted Williams.   I will use that list as it is, except that I am removing Rogers Hornsby, for reasons explained before, and substituting Hank Aaron and Cy Young.  

              That already is progress; I am having to do less "arbitrary shuffling" to get the list that I want now than I did before.    The other progress that the system makes with these adjustments can be seen in this paragraph:

The eighteen players who I think were Superstars but who the system fails to recognize as Superstars were, chronologically, Frankie Frisch, Dizzy Dean, Hank Greenberg, Bob Feller, Roy Campanella, Warren Spahn, Denny McLain, Tom Seaver, Willie Stargell, Steve Carlton, Gary Carter, Cal Ripken, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki and Clayton Kershaw. 

              The system now, with these adjustments, "naturally recognizes" more of these players as Superstars, without my having to force them up to Superstar Status.    The system now recognizes as Superstars Dizzy Dean, Hank Greenberg, Roy Campanella, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Chipper Jones and Clayton Kershaw.   In every case these players now EASILY qualify as Superstars, and better yet, the adjustments made do not create a large number of questionable additions to the superstar list, although they do create three or four.   The system still fails to recognize as superstars Frankie Frisch, Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, Denny McLain, Willie Stargell, Gary Carter, Cal Ripken, Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki.  

              I also added a rule to the system, based on the earlier discussion, that no player is recognized as a Superstar DURING his rookie season.   That makes almost no difference; I think the only players who otherwise would become superstars as rookies are Ted Williams and Dick Allen, but I just changed the notation to state that they become superstars at the conclusion of their rookie seasons, rather than as rookies.   

              Other than the nine players listed before who (a) were clearly Superstars, but (b) weren’t previously recognized by the system, but (c) now are recognized by the system on its own, there are four categories of changes in the outcomes of the process.   Those four categories are (A) other players added to the Superstar Register (12), (B) players who drop off the Superstar Register (1), (C) Modest but meaningful changes to the years when players are recognized as Superstars (9) and (D) Trivial changes to the dates when players are recognized as Superstars (19).

A.  New Players added to the Superstar Register (12).

              Rube Waddell is now listed as a Superstar from 1902 to 1908.

              Cy Seymour is now listed as a Superstar in 1905-1906.    

              Addie Joss is now listed as a Superstar in 1907 and 1908. 

              Goose Goslin is now listed as a Superstar from 1924 to 1936. 

              Chuck Klein is now listed as a Superstar in 1932-1933.   Klein hit .356 with 145 RBI in 1929 and .386 with 170 RBI (!!) in 1930, so it seems odd to exclude those seasons from his Superstar period.  It’s just the way the numbers work out; not saying it is right or wrong.  The Phillies played in such an absurdly high-run context in 1929-1931 that Klein’s "true" value is very, very low, compared to the value that you would ASSUME a player would have hitting .386 with 170 RBI and a huge number of outfield assists.  This anomaly was well understood by sportswriters of his time.   Klein, despite his monstrous numbers, received almost no support in Hall of Fame voting in his first ten years on the ballot, and was only selected to the Hall of Fame after he had been dead for a couple of decades and his contemporaries were mostly gone.  

              Al Rosen is now listed as a Superstar from 1952 to 1954, which I think is a good addition; Rosen was a huge star for a few years. 

              Ferguson Jenkins is now listed as a Superstar from 1971 to 1974.   That’s certainly a reasonable opinion. 

              Catfish Hunter is now listed as a Superstar from 1972 to 1975. 

              Eddie Murray is now listed as a Superstar from 1982 to 1990. 

              Don Mattingly is now listed as a Superstar from 1984 to 1989. 

              Tony Gwynn is now listed as a Superstar from 1984 to 1997. 

              Jeff Kent is now listed as a Superstar from 2000 to 2005.   Not thrilled about that, but he was a good player. 

              It’s not too bad. . .we add Waddell, Rosen, Jenkins, Catfish, Eddie Murray, Mattingly and Gwynn, all of whom I think are legitimate Superstars and probably should be on the list, and we add three players that I would say I am neutral about (Joss, Goslin and Klein), while picking up only two players that I would probably have preferred not to list (Cy Seymour and Jeff Kent).   Not bad.  

B.  Players Who Drop off the Superstar Register with these Changes (1).

              Keith Hernandez. 

C.  Modest but Meaningful Changes to the Years when players are listed as Superstars (9) 

              With more credit being given to a high batting average, Richie Ashburn’s Superstar designation reaches from 1955 to 1958, rather than just in 1958 as it was before. 

              Ernie Banks is now listed as a Superstar from 1955 to 1961, whereas before he was only listed in the years 1958 to 1960. 

              In the study before, Ken Griffey Jr. did not "naturally" attain Superstar status until 1997, forcing me to intervene in the chart to back-date his Superstar status to 1991.   With this revision he attains the status naturally in 1991.  

              Randy Johnson’s years as a Superstar, which before were listed at 1999 to 2002, are changed to 1995 to 2004.   This clearly is more accurate.  Johnson was a huge star before 1999.  

              In the listing before, Clayton Kerhaw’s Superstar status ended in 2014.  In this revision it extends to the present time, through 2017, making four Superstars active in 2017, rather than three. 

              Mel Ott is now listed as a Superstar from 1929 to 1945, whereas before we had him as a Superstar from 1932 to 1944. 

              Duke Snider’s Superstar designation now begins in 1950, rather than in 1953. 

              Joe Torre’s period as a Superstar now begins in 1964, rather than in 1971 as it did before. 

              Carl Yastrzemski’s years as a Superstar are now listed as 1963-1971, whereas before the years listed were 1967-1971.  

              The change for Torre is probably not helpful or not correct.   Torre hit .321 with 109 RBI in 1964, a hell of a season for a catcher in the hitting-starved 1960s, but I don’t actually think he was a Superstar in those years.   The changes for Griffey and the Big Unit are obviously correct; the others are like, you can see it that way or you can see it the other; it doesn’t really make much difference.  Yastrzemski—a highly acclaimed rookie prospect before he came to the majors—won his first batting title in 1963.   When we give him credit for that it pushes him over the Superstar line earlier in his career.  

D.  Trivial changes in the dates when players are recognized as Superstars (19)

              These don’t really mean anything, but I will document them in the interests of thoroughness:

              Henry Aaron becomes a Superstar in 1955, rather than 1956 as in the previous method. 

              Dick Allen becomes a Superstar at the end of the 1964 season, rather than "in" 1964. 

              Johnny Bench loses the Superstar designation after the 1975 season, rather than 1976. 

              Yogi Berra’s Superstar Years change from 1950-1959 to 1950-1957. 

              Jesse Burkett changes from 1900-1905 to 1900-1904. 

              Rod Carew becomes a Superstar in 1973, rather than in 1974 (which makes sense, if you look up his record.) 

              Eddie Collins remains a Superstar through 1925, rather than 1924 as in the previous method.

              Charlie Gehringer becomes a Superstar in 1933, rather than 1934 (1933-1939 rather than 1934-1939).  

              Heine Groh registers as a Superstar beginning in 1917, rather than 1915 as he did before. 

              Lefty Grove achieves Superstar Status in 1928, rather than in 1930. 

              Harry Heilmann becomes a Superstar in 1921, rather than in 1923. 

              Frank Howard retains the Superstar tag in 1971, rather than losing it after 1970 as he did before. 

              Carl Hubbell remains a Superstar through 1938, rather than through 1937. 

              Andrew McCutchen’s years of Superstar designation become 2012-2015, rather than 2012-2016. 

              Tim Raines qualifies as a Superstar in 1984, rather than in 1985. 

              Al Simmons adds 1935-1936 to his period of Superstardom, which previously we had terminated in 1934. 

              George Sisler changes from 1916-1923 to 1917-1924.

              Sammy Sosa loses the Superstar designation for the 2003 season,

              Ted Williams becomes a Superstar at the end of the 1939 season, rather than in 1941. 

Explaining the Process

              1)  Start with a year-by-year record of the player’s Win Shares.

              2)  Figure (for each season) the player’s ratio of hits to secondary bases, by this formula:

                             (TB – H) + W + SB/2

                             --------------------------

                            &n​bsp;              Hits

              If this figure is less than .80, increase the player’s Win shares by 6%.   If this figure is greater than 1.20, decrease his Win Shares by 6%.   We will call this new figure "Adjusted Win Shares".

              3)  Add 10 points to the Adjusted Win Shares if the player won the MVP or Cy Young Award.

              4)  Add 2 points if the player was the batting champion.

              5)  Add 1 (additional) point if the player hit .300 or better with 500 or more plate appearances. 

              6)  Add 1 point if the player drove in 100 runs.

              7)   Add 3 points if the player, as a pitcher, led the league in strikeouts.

              8)  Up through the year 2000, add 1 point if the pitcher had at least four more wins than losses. 

              This complete the process of creating Adjusted Win Shares.   Once we have adjusted Win Shares, we move on to the player’s Running Score. 

              9)  The running score is 4 times the player’s Adjusted Win Shares, plus 2 times his Adjusted Win Shares in the previous season, plus his Adjusted Win Shares in the season previous to that, plus 62% of the player’s Running Score from the previous season. 

              10)  If the player’s Running Score reaches a peak of 530.00 or higher, then the player qualifies as a Superstar by this process.   If it does not, he does not.   He may still have been a Superstar, but this system does not recognize him as one.

              11)  If a player is a Superstar—this is, if his running score reaches 530 at some point in his career—then we recognize him as a Superstar beginning in the first season in which his Adjusted Win Shares are 31 or higher, and extending through the last season in which his Adjusted Win Shares are 23 or higher, unless he is one of the 13 "transcendent stars" discussed earlier, in which case he remains a Superstar until the end of his career. 

Illustrating the Process with Real-Life Examples

              There were a cluster of stars and Superstars born in the years 1934-1935; let’s use some of them to illustrate the process.    Henry Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Roger Maris, Norm Cash, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson were all born in 1934 or 1935.  We start with their Win Shares Each Season:

              Why don’t I highlight the two best players in the group each year, pointing out that they all have their moments.  In 1961 Frank Robinson won the MVP Award, but still ranks (by this approach) as the fourth-best player in the group:

              Now we move from Win Shares to Adjusted Win Shares.   Frank Robinson in 1961, aided by the MVP Award, moves to second in the group, almost first; Maris was also the MVP that season, of course.   Koufax moves up in ’63, from second behind Aaron to first in the group.   Cash, who previously had two seasons as one of the stars of the group, no longer lists as 1 or 2 in any season.  

              After we have Adjusted Win Shares, we can figure the Running Score, which is based on combining Adjusted Win Shares for a series of seasons.  These are the Running Scores, or "Superstar Scores" for these eight players:

              Let’s mark the peak for each player:

              The key is that to qualify as a Superstar, a player must have a Running Score peaking at 530 or higher.    For Aaron, that’s easy; he reaches 559.8 at the age of 24, and is still going up for several years. 

              Norm Cash, although a fine player who had one monster year, never comes close to the Superstar Standard of 530:

              Roberto Clemente is above 530 for several years:

              Bob Gibson is above that standard from 1968 to 1972:

              Al Kaline, while he started brilliantly and had a long and productive career, never really came close to the explosion of great seasons that makes a player a Superstar:

              Kaline ran parallel to Aaron in 1954-56, but just never got that beyond that point.  I shouldn’t say he didn’t get "close" to the Superstar Level; he got reasonably close.   He just needed an MVP or near-MVP season to reach the summit.   Koufax got there with his brilliant series of seasons from 1963 to 1966:

              Roger Maris, on the other hand, DID get very, very close to the standard that we recognize as Superstar, and would have reached that level had he had been healthy and completed another strong season in 1963.   He just narrowly missed, reaching 526 when he needed to reach 530. 

              You may remember the Arnold Hano article about Superstars that I have referenced several times in this series.   In that article, Hano said that Maris was a Superstar from 1960 to 1962—briefly a Superstar.   I don’t strongly disagree; I am just using a fractionally higher standard.  And Frank Robinson, although not quite Henry Aaron, is comfortably above the Superstar Standard for several years:

              OK, so at this point we have decided that Aaron, Clemente, Gibson, Koufax and Frank Robinson do meet the Superstar Standard, but that Cash, Kaline and Maris do not.   We can leave them out of the charts now.  Now, having established that the other five do meet the Superstar Standard, we face the question of when did they become Superstars, and how long did they remain Superstars?

              You can’t use the Running Score—which represents multi-year performance--to draw a line between seasons, because very often that would include a weaker season and exclude a stronger one.   To determine when exactly a player became a Superstar, we revert to the Adjusted Win Shares chart.  

              A player who is a Superstar becomes a Superstar in his first season with 31.0 or more Adjusted Win Shares.   31.0 Adjusted Win Shares means that you’re an MVP candidate.   What we are really saying is that a player who is a Superstar becomes a Superstar when he has an MVP-type season.  For Henry Aaron, who was a Transcendent Star, once he becomes a Superstar, he remains a Superstar for the rest of his career:

              The other players become Superstars when they have their first MVP-type season, and lose the Superstar Designation with their last season of 23.0 or more Adjusted Win Shares.   23 Adjusted Win Shares is basically an All-Star level.   20-25 Win Shares, you make the All Star team.   When you’re no longer a star, then you’re no longer a Superstar:

              The Superstar dates for Koufax are obviously correct; for Frank Robinson, they would be difficult to argue with, although you could cut him off after 1970.  

              For Gibson and Clemente, I’m not thrilled with the start dates.   The system shows Clemente emerging as a Superstar in 1964, when he won his second batting title.  I would be happier if we showed him reaching Superstar Status in 1961, when he hit .351 with 23 homers and finished fifth in the MVP voting.  He has to reach 31.0 to achieve Superstar Status; he reached 30.4.  

              Gibson is sort of the same.   The system shows Gibson as becoming a Superstar in 1968.  Gibson was the World Series MVP in 1964 and again 1967, won 20 games in 1965 and again in 1966.  Maybe it is not clear that he is a Superstar until 1968, but you can certainly make an argument that he should have been.

              Thanks for reading.