1. Mike Trout will have a historic season.
Just a real quick spring training statistic: in forty-two plate appearances this spring, Mike Trout has zero strike outs. None. Zilch. He hasn’t punched out all spring.
Let’s just take the time to think about that for a second…let’s imagine a version of Mike Trout who never strikes out. What kind of a season would he put up?
A 0.0% strikeout percentage probably won’t happen this year, but it’s worth noting that Trout’s strikeout percentage has declined about three percentage points per year since 2014. Here’s a table, just because I can’t write an article without a table:
|
Year
|
K%
|
|
2014
|
26.1%
|
|
2015
|
23.2%
|
|
2016
|
20.1%
|
|
2017
|
17.8%
|
That is a steady progression towards a more contact-focused approach. And judging by his league-leading slugging percentage last season, Trout hasn’t sacrificed power for contact.
Trout’s batting average on balls in play was .318 last year. That’s a good BABIP for an ordinary player, but it’s well off Trout’s .355 career mark. If Trout’s batting average on balls in play returns to normal and he reduces his strikeout rate by another two or three percentage points, it is not hard to envision Trout winning a batting title. And if he does win a batting title, it isn’t too hard to imagine him winning the Triple Crown. If you look at Trout’s Similarity Scores, just five players score 900 or better on the metric. Of those five, three won Triple Crowns (Mantle, Frank Robinson, and Miggy). The other two were Hank Aaron and Ken Griffey Jr.
And even if Trout doesn’t win the Triple Crown (Giancarlo Stanton has, after all, taken up residency in the American League), there is still the chance that Trout makes history of one kind or another. Maybe this is the year he flirts with a .400 batting average. Maybe he’ll challenge Manny Ramirez’s modern single-season RBI mark of 165. Maybe he’ll make a run at Lou Gehrig’s AL single-season record, or Hack Wilson’s major league record. And maybe there’s a record we don’t know about yet, a record that Trout will have to invent to break. I wouldn’t put it past him.
Whatever happens, we’re guessing that 2018 will be a capstone season for the best player in baseball.
2. A Braves rookie will get votes in the NL MVP balloting.
This is a question of who-do-you-like more: Atlanta second baseman Ozzie Albies or outfielder Ronald Acuna.
Ozzie Albies, the latest in a long string of brilliant players that the Braves have lured from Curacao (Andruw Jones, Andrelton Simmons), was just twenty years old when he arrived in the majors last year. He posted an impressive wRC+ of 112 in fifty-seven games, and saw his strikeout and walk rate improve against major league pitching.
And there is Ronald Acuna. A month older than his teammate, Acuna posted stringing wRC+’s of 135, 159, and 162 last year while moving up the minor league chain, and then showed up as the best hitter in spring training this year. Acuna was recently sent to Triple-A, a predictable and temporary move that will give the Braves one more year of control over the right-handed outfielder.
3. Adam Eaton will lead the NL in runs scored.
The National’s centerfielder, who missed most of last season with a knee injury, is back and ready to hit leadoff on a batting order that should have Trea Turner and contract-year Bryce Harper hitting behind him. Eaton, an under-the-radar player with the White Sox, managed to score 24 runs in just 23 games as a National last year before he went down with an injury. If he manages to score at 80% of that pace, he should be good enough to pace the NL.
4. Aaron Judge gets demoted to the minors.
We’re predicting that last year’s AL home run champ gets into a tailspin so drastic that the Yankees decide to ship him down to Triple-A to get his confidence back.
5. The Mets will finish fourth in the NL East.
The Mets are a popular choice to net one of the NL Wild Card slots, but we’re anticipating that the team treads water in 2018. With Atlanta’s young core coming into the majors, and with Philadelphia’s positive signings during the coldest offseason ever, we’re guessing that the Mets end the season looking up at the rest of the division. Except Miami, of course.
6. The best infielder on the Cleveland Indians will be Jason Kipnis.
With Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez coming off terrific years (and entering their prime, age-wise), this is a steep challenge for the mercurial Kipnis, who hasn’t ever lived up to the numbers his early years hinted at. That said, Kipnis is finally healthy, and he’s had a tremendous spring training, so we’re taking a flier on him as the best player on the Cleveland infield.
7. Gary Sanchez will not lead AL catchers in homeruns.
This isn’t a knock on Sanchez, so much as it is a reflection on the fact that there a lot of interesting boppers at the catcher position heading into 2018. Sanchez will certainly hit his share of homers, but we’re betting that someone slips past him on the leaderboards. Keep your eyes on Salvador Perez, who has really bought into the flyball movement. Other possibilities include Seattle’s Mike Zunino, who nearly matched Sanchez’s HR/AB ratio (17.4 for Zunino, 15.9 for Sanchez), and Welington Castillo, who popped 20 as a part-timer last year. And I’m a perennial believer in Yan Gomes, who showed improvements in plate discipline last year.
8. Scott Schebler leads the NL in homeruns.
The departures of J.D. Martinez and Giancarlo Stanton has left the NL home run race up for grabs, and we’re predicting that Reds outfielder Scott Schebler will be the guy who seizes the moment and gets a little black ink on his baseball card. Hitting behind Joey Votto means that Schebler has the chance to drive in a fair number of runs, too.
9. Tyler Chatwood is the second-best starter on the Cubs.
Last time I checked, the Cubs have Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana in their rotation. And I think that they signed Yu Darvish during the off-season…I remember something like that blipping across my radar. Those are great pitchers! Any one of those guys could pull out a Cy Young campaign.
But I’m thinking that Tyler Chatwood, the guy who paced the NL in loses last year, will be better than at least three of those pitchers. Why? For one thing, Chatwood has always struggled at Coors, posting a 5.17 ERA in ‘Rado versus 3.75 everywhere else. And although his walk rate is still a problem, Chatwood’s groundball tendencies will benefit from the Cubs strong defensive infield.
10. Mookie Betts hits sixty doubles.
I am contractually obligated to make a Boston pick, so here it is: Mookie notches 60 doubles. In the history of the game, only six players have crossed the 60 doubles mark (compared to eight 60-HR seasons). More telling: all of those seasons occurred between 1926 and 1936. We’re predicting that Mookie Betts joins the ghosts of Webb, Burns, Medwick, Greenberg, Waner, and Gehringer, and notches the first ‘sixty’ in modern baseball history.
Have your own Bold Predictions? Post them below, and we’ll review everyone’s predictions at the end of the year.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.