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Ten Pitchers Who are Fighting to Be Considered #1 Starters

May 10, 2012

1.  Gio Gonzalez, Washington.    A left-hander who has always had pretty good stuff but was considered wild until this year, Gonzalez was drafted by the White Sox, traded to the Phillies, traded back to the White Sox, traded to Oakland and, this spring, traded to Washington.   Hammered by the Cubs in his first outing, Gonzalez in his last five has pitched 33 innings giving up only 13 hits and 3 runs for a 0.82 ERA, 35 strikeouts and 10 walks. 

2.  Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati.   Hitter’s Park?  What hitter’s park?   Cueto is 4-0 with a 1.31 ERA on the year.    His being a #1 is really a matter of staying healthy.

3.  Anibal Sanchez, Miami.   39-38 coming into this season, Sanchez has struck out 46 batters in 40 innings, 2.01 ERA.

4.  Brandon Morrow, Toronto.   I’ve always loved Brandon Morrow, ever since I saw a game years ago when he and Greinke looked like the two best pitchers in baseball, going head to head.   I’ve always thought Morrow had Cy Young stuff.    He has 15 shutout innings in his last two starts, 17 strikeouts and no walks.   And the start before those two was really good, although he gave up a run. 

5.   Brandon Beachy, Atlanta.   In his major league career he has made 34 starts, lost only 6 games and struck out 211 batters. 

6.  Jake Peavy, Chicago.   He’s been there before, of course, but Peavy is pitching at a Cy Young level once again.   His average Game Score this year, 68.0, is the fifth highest in the majors, behind Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez and the snakebit Ryan Dempster.

7.  Drew Smyly, Detroit.   Still hasn’t had a bad start in the majors.   There are now 7 pitchers in the majors who have made at least five starts and have posted a Game Score of 50 or higher every time out:  C. J. Wilson, Anibal, Stephen Strasburg, Lance Lynn, Smyly, Dempster and Ted Lilly. 

8.  Madison Bumgarner.   I didn’t say #1 on this staff.   San Francisco has lots of good pitchers, but he’s been their #2 guy so far.  

9.  R.A. Dickey.   I know, I know; it can’t happen.   But he is coming off a string of strong performances, and at some point you have to give him his due.   I have him currently ranked as the 45th best starting pitcher in the major leagues.

10.   James McDonald, Pittsburgh.   Quietly getting people out for the last year. 

 

                Here are this week’s starting pitcher rankings.     On the left is the pitcher’s ranking as of one month ago, April 10; no longer the start of the season, but one month ago.    The five categories to the right of the pitcher’s name are his Game Scores in each of the last five five-day start windows.   Last night was the start of a new five-day window, so most of those are blank as now.   

                To the right of that is the number of Games Started by the pitcher this year, his average Game Score in those starts, and his current ranking number.   To the far right is his current rank.   There are 200 starting pitchers who are currently ranked.   

                White-on-Green indicates the pitchers who are surging in the rankings.   White-on-Brown indicates those who are falling.  

                There are eleven pitchers who were ranked at the start of the year, but have disappeared from the rankings since the start of the season due to inactivity:   Carlos Carrasco, Brad Hand, Tom Gorzelanny, Jo-Jo Reyes, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Ohlendorf, Jorge de la Rosa, Dontrelle Willis, Tyler Chatwood, Wade LeBlanc and Rodrigo Lopez.   That number will go up rapidly now, because we have now passed the 225-day mark since the end of last season, and pitchers scores drop by one full point a day when they are inactive for more than 225 days.  These are the rankings:

 

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Thanks for reading.

 

Bill James

 
 

COMMENTS (6 Comments, most recent shown first)

MWeddell
I agree, jemangi. If you told someone that Colby Lewis was a #1 starter (he is clearly among the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball according to this report), some people would say you are crazy.

I think an alternative definition of #1 starter is "a pitcher who you would be confident could win the first game of the post-season." Not quite inner circle Hall of Famer, but certainly more selective a definition than among the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball.
11:40 AM May 11th
 
jemanji
A semantic muse ... when I was a kid in the 1970's, people seemed to use the term "#1 starter" to mean staff ace, Opening Day starter. As time has gone on, the term seems to have migrated towards meaning "inner-circle Hall of Famer." A few years back Bill Bavasi remarked something to the effect, "there are only two or three true #1's in baseball right now."

In Ball Four there is a daily entry along the lines of "We won tonight because of an error in the 10th, and we have one of our aces, Don Wilson, going tomorrow; I think I'm going to cry..." as opposed to a pitcher's needing to make $200M in order to be an ace...

Usually these days if a conversation comes up and you mention (say) Dan Haren or Zack Grienke as a #1 starter, you hear back "Huh? What have you been smoking?" ...

It seems this article uses the "staff ace" sense of the "#1 starter" term, which is heartily refreshing to me. Always seemed to me that if there were 30 teams in baseball, there were probably 30 or 40 aces, not 3 or 4.
3:11 AM May 11th
 
bjames
Gio Gonzalez rating score a month ago was 456; now it's 493, a gain of 37. You pick up points faster when you are near 300 than when you are in the mid-400s. ..a "50" game (an average game) is +50 vs. your rating score at 450, +200 when you're at 300. So all of the people who are in green have picked up more points than that in the last month.

I'd be very reluctant to add more data to the chart, such as last month's rating score. SOME of you would process more data just fine--but a lot of people now would look at this chart and just see a very large stack of numbers. I'm trying to keep the number of stats down to where people can process what they're seeing.
1:00 AM May 11th
 
lidsky
This is the type of thing which is growing on my week after week as I get accustomed to it. One thing I think we would find interesting next to last month's rank is last month's score.
11:00 PM May 10th
 
bobfiore
What do you make of Chris Capuano? A guy who was signed strictly as an innings eater who's turned out to be shockingly effective. Just a fluke hot streak, do you think?
10:55 PM May 10th
 
flyingfish
Seems to me that Gio Gonzalez should be in green; from 33rd to 20th looks like a surge to me, a bigger relative gain than say from 110 to 80....
2:54 PM May 10th
 
 
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