The Draft Rules and 1990s’ Drafts and Busts
To see what this is all about, check out my first article.
In 1990s, you see a huge shift towards drafting even more minor leaguers. In these more recent drafts many older players have restrictive contracts or free agent status that exempts them from an expansion draft. Even if a veteran is available, his free agency status would come up sooner than for a player who is just reaching the Majors. Furthermore, older players have heftier contracts – sometimes more than they are worth. No expansion team would draft such a player as they would be responsible for the contract.
Top 1992 Expansion Draft Picks
Player Level Age Year From By Years AWAR Pos.
Trevor Hoffman aa-AAA 25 ’92 Cin. Fla. 18 61.1 RP-sp
Jeff Conine AAA-mlb 26 ’92 K.C.R. Fla. 15 22.2 1B-of
Andy Ashby aaa-MLB 25 ’92 Phi. Col. 11+ 22.1 SP
Carl Everett A+ 21 ’92 N.Y.Y. Fla. 12+- 18.4 OF
Brad Ausmus AAA 23 ’92 N.Y.Y. Col. 16++ 17.2 C
Eric Young AAA-mlb 25 ’92 L.A.D. Col. 14 16.6 2B-of
Vinny Castilla AAA-mlb 25 ’92 Braves Col. 14- 16.6 3B
David Weathers AAA-mlb 23 ’92 Tor. Fla. 15+- 14.1 SP-rp
Steve Reed aa-AAA-mlb 27 ’92 S.F. Col. 13- 13.9 RP
Armando Reynoso AAA-mlb 26 ’92 Braves Col. 8++ 11.6 SP
Curtis Leskanic AA-aaa 24 ’92 Min. Col. 11-- 10.0 SP-rp
Pat Rapp AAA-mlb 25 ’92 S.F. Fla. 9 9.7 SP-RP
Butch Henry MLB 24 ’92 Hou. Col. 6 8.2 sp-RP
Bryan Harvey MLB 29 ’92 Angels Fla. 1+ 7.8 RP
Jim Corsi aaa-MLB 31 ’92 Oak. Fla. 6-- 7.7 RP
Kevin Ritz MLB 27 ’92 Det. Col. 4-+ 6.6 SP
Charlie Hayes MLB 27 ’92 N.Y.Y. Col. 10- 6.4 3B
Darren Holmes aaa-MLB 26 ’92 Braves Col. 10- 5.3 RP
Willie Blair aaa-MLB 26 ’92 Hou. Col. 9- 4.0 sp-RP
Robert Person A+ 23 ’92 Chi.W. Fla. 6++ 3.5 SP
Joe Girardi MLB 28 ’92 Cubs Col. 10+ 3.1 C
Danny Jackson MLB 30 ’92 Pit. Fla. 5 2.8 SP
The Rockies had the opening pick of the 1992 draft and took pitching prospect David Nied with 2 Major League starts on his résumé. His first 209 innings for Colorado included an extended send down in his first year and produced an ERA of 4.95 – not all that bad for Mile High Stadium and an expansion team’s defense. However, his arm had nothing more in it to give Major League baseball. The Marlins took minor leaguers with their first two picks: outfielder Nigel Wilson and pitcher Jose Martinez. They were complete busts. The Rockies played it safe with their 2nd pick selecting a solid starting regular in Charlie Hayes who did give them a couple of good years before his free agency came up. Despite the weak start and slim worthwhile veteran pickings, the 1992 draft turned out to be the strongest draft yet.
The Marlins took the top two prizes in Trevor Hoffman (61.1 AWAR) and Jeff Conine (22.2 AWAR). The team used Hoffman to net themselves one of the most feared hitters in the game: Gary Sheffield. A few free agents later and Florida had a World Championship in only their fourth season. The next best pick in AWAR was Andy Ashby (22.1 AWAR / 34.6 WSAB), but Carl Everett (18.4/43.3) comes out well ahead of Ashby in WSAB. Of these four outstanding expansion draft picks, only Ashby was taken by the Rockies. It turned out the Rockies didn’t even enjoy Ashby’s production (8.50 ERA). By the Rockies’ first trade deadline, Ashby was sent to San Diego, where he became a two time all-star.
Colorado struggled mightily to find a starting pitcher who could succeed in their home run friendly high altitude. Besides Ashby, Butch Henry found success elsewhere after a disastrous trial with the Rockies (6.59 ERA). The starter they found who was hurt the least by Mile High and Coors Stadiums was Armando Reynoso. He threw primarily a cut fastball, although, it did not have the groundball inducing magic of Mariano Rivera’s.
Florida bid adieu to some of their pitchers too early. Jim Corsi produced a 6.64 ERA for Florida, signed with Oakland and produced a 2.20 ERA. His ERA the season he was drafted from Oakland was 1.43, so no doubt some teams are a better fit for certain pitchers than others – especially with a pitching coach such as Dave Duncan. Robert Person spent one unremarkable year in Florida’s Florida State League team before he was traded to the Mets for a minor leaguer who stayed a minor leaguer. The Mets developed Person into a solid enough looking starter to gain John Olerud from Toronto. Danny Jackson was immediately cashed in for minor league pitchers whose total career WAR is less than zero. Meanwhile, Jackson had another all-star game left in his career producing a WAR of 6.8 over his two seasons with the Phillies. His last three years in the Majors were so bad, however, that he dragged his post expansion draft WAR down to 2.8.
Besides relievers, WAR and WSAB can have a very different take on catchers. The defensive component of WAR is so negative on Fred Kendall that his AWAR comes out negative. His WSAB is negative, too, but for the opposite reasons. WSAB thinks his hitting was a negative, but his defense was a positive. Using WAR, Brad Ausmus comes out with a very impressive 17.2. Using WSAB, instead of an expected number 2 ½ times larger than his AWAR, it is only half as much: 8.7. Ausmus – the Rockies’s second best pick was included with Ashby and a third expansion pick Doug Bochtler, who developed into a useful reliever for a couple years, to San Diego for a pair of supposedly reliable veteran starters: Bruce Hurst and Greg Harris. Both Hurst and Harris gave the Rockies worse than replacement player value and were quickly out of active duty.
1992’s draft produced one of expansion history’s most productive second baseman Eric Young (16.6/19.2 AWAR/WSAB) and one of its most productive third basemen Vinny Castilla (16.6/14.3) – the top two players that Colorado did manage to hang onto for awhile. Both Young and Castilla were 25 years old AAA stars with a taste of the Major Leagues. Both became starters in 1993 and retired after 2006. Both produced 16.6 AWAR.
Colorado and Florida aggressively pursued free agents to make themselves competitive as rapidly as possible – and they succeeded. Previously, no expansion team had made the play-offs earlier than their 8th season as did the Mets and Royals. The Blue Jays took 9 years. The Rockies were in the post season during their third season. The Marlins won the World Series in their 4th year. Both teams made aggressive use of free agency – something the Blue Jays and Mariners did not do in their early years. Of course, the eight expansion teams of the 1960s didn’t have that opportunity.
By Trevor Hoffman’s excellence alone, Cincinnati was hurt the most in this draft. In ’92, the Reds had a 90 game winning team two years removed from their 1990 championship upset over Oakland’s Bash Brothers. They still had their dominant ace in Jose Rijo, a shortstop deserving of the Hall of Fame in Barry Larkin, the steadily .300+ hitting firstbaseman Hal Morris, the sometime all-star thirdbaseman Chris Sabo, the intense sometime all-star rightfielder Paul O’Neill, and an outstanding bullpen led by Nasty Boys Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble. Missing from their glorious October ’90 team was injury prone but incredibly talented centerfielder Eric Davis and the third Nasty Boy: Randy Myers. Yet, the organization still felt deep and strong enough in the pen to trade Charlton for Kevin Mitchell. As Murphy would have it, the 1993 Cincinnati’s bullpen was a horror show exemplified by the last remaining Nasty Boy Rob Dibble’s ERA of 6.46. Statistically in ‘92, Hoffman showed promise, but was not all that impressive. He was a 24 year old in AA Nashville: 4.27 ERA, 63 K, 32 BB, 6 HR, 65.1 Innings, but it was only his second year as a pro. In 1993, Hoffman shot all the way to the Majors pitching for Florida then San Diego and had a respectable rookie season. A year later he was the Padres’ closer on his way to closing the most games of any reliever before him.
The Royals no longer had John Schuerholz in 1992 to stop them from losing Jeff Conine. Instead the Royals hung onto Wally Joyner who had less career value remaining than Conine (15.4 to 22.2 AWAR) at a much greater salary ($4,000,000/year to a few hundred thousand of Major League minimum dollars) – and by then the Royals were a team in need of rebuilding. Conine was quite old for a prospect at 26, but he did have full seasons of terrorizing AA (.947 OPS) and AAA (.942 OPS).
The Philadelphia Phillies were a sub .500 team from 1987 to 2000, except for 1993 when they put together a team of veterans who made it all the way to the World Series. Of course, they would have loved to have had Andy Ashby back from 1994 on, but during the 1992 season preceding the expansion draft, the Phillies had eight promising starting pitchers who were 25 years or younger. One has a good case for the Hall of Fame: Curt Schilling. One had a good season in 1993 only: Tommy Greene. The rest didn’t do much at all. Ashby had a slow rise through the Phillies system starting as a high school pick. He had a respectable year in AAA Scranton/W.B. in 1991, and must have been hurt for most of 1992. He showed 33 more innings in the International League, then in Philadelphia a 7.54 ERA in 8 starts and 2 relief appearances.
The Yankees lost more talent in the 1992 expansion draft than any team that didn’t lose a future Hall of Fame reliever. The Yankees weren’t even a particularly strong team at the time, but they had young talent on the way. Bernie Williams was breaking into their outfield and, uh, Sam Militello was breaking into their rotation. It is almost shocking to recall, but the Bronx Bombers had just suffered their fourth losing season in a row – yes, below .500 losing. To their scouting credit, the Marlins dug deep into the Yankees’ A+ level to pluck a not statistically distinguished 21 year old Carl Everett (18.4/43.3 AWAR/WSAB). Colorado took the Yankees’ AAA catcher Brad Ausmus (17.2/8.7). A solid thirdbaseman in his prime Charlie Hayes (6.4/7.5) was the third player taken in the draft. The Yankees tried to keep their players by declaring the expansion draft illegal. Bud Selig used the "best interests of baseball" powers to end the ploy. The Yankees didn’t sulk for long. They went out and bought free agent Wade Boggs. The Yankees had a winning record in 1993 – and ever since – a 19 year run, so far, that includes 13 first place finishes and 5 second place finishes of which four drew the wild card.
Expansion pick Bryan Harvey had some excellent years as a reliever, but the Angels are lucky no team took Jim Edmunds instead.
You might have noticed that the ’92 draft took players from both leagues instead of just the league the expansion teams were in as all the previous drafts had done. Up until then, the A.L. had three drafts and the N.L. two, so the established A.L. clubs were ripped off a bit on that rule change. Here is a semi-outlined summary of the drafting rules and how they changed over the years. In the original draft:
Originally established clubs could protect 18 players from their 25 man roster plus seven more players from the rest of their 40 man roster leaving the seven least desirable players from the 25-man roster and the eight least desirable players from the 40-man roster (borderline prospects).
The expansion teams could take one non-roster player from each established team as well. 28 players were drafted by each expansion team, so the older clubs lost 4 players each.
The New York Mets and Houston Colt 45s were so weak after two seasons that they were allowed another pick each (Jack Fisher and Claude Raymond).
The rest of the expansion drafts (’68 on) allowed the established clubs to protect only 15 players. It did not matter if the players were on the 40-man roster or not, but players who only started their professional career the previous season or later or were 18 or younger if signed two years earlier were not eligible.
(This rule change protecting first or second year pros was no doubt in reaction to the Red Sox losing a franchise player (Fregosi) after only one year as a pro at the age of 17.)
After one player was taken from each team, a new round would begin with each team protecting three more players. In 1976, that was reduced to an additional two players after the fourth round. This continued until 30 players were chosen for each expansion team.
Players with no-trade clauses had to be protected. (This had become a major issue by the 1990s.)
Perhaps, the most significant change with the 1990s expansion compared to earlier ones came not with the expansion draft, but from that they were able to start their farm systems a year earlier and draft as many players from the June draft preceding the expansion draft as other teams.
In order to even things up to token degree from the fact that the N.L.’s third expansion draft in 1992 took from both leagues, while the A.L.’s third draft took only from the A.L., the American League clubs were allowed to protect 4 players after the first round instead of 3. Plus, only eight A.L. clubs could be drafted from in the third and last round. This brought the total number of players drafted in 1992 to 36 players per expansion team.
In 1996 there was an expansion team in each league, so the A.L. abided by the three player drawback rule. The drafted ended after each team had 35 players.
The Complete List of ’92 & ’97 Complete Busts
Below are the complete busts from the last two drafts. None of the draft picks below had a season or consecutive seasons with an AWAR totalling as much as half a win. As you can see comparing this list to the top picks, the players with at least some Major League experience did much better than the players without any. It is interesting to note that after Fregosi and Bressoud were selected in the early ‘60s, there were no expansion picks who succeeded as everyday shortstops. Of the players who flourished, outfielders and pitchers were the most abundant. However, five the eleven highest drafted failures were outfielders. One, Kevin Reimer, was an early declining veteran, while the rest were prospects. The rest of the complete list of expansion pick failures is dominated by pitchers – each of whom had spent all or some of the previous season in the minors. R# is the round they were drafted.
Player pre-draft level Age Yr. R# Team AWAR Pos.
Nigel Wilson AA 22 ’92 1 Fla. 0.1 OF
Jose Martinez A+-aa 21 ’92 2 Fla. 0.0 SP
Gabe Alvarez AA 23 ’97 3 Ariz. -1.7 3B
Kevin Reimer MLB 28 ’92 5 Col. -0.1 OF
Rich Butler AAA-mlb 24 ’97 5 T.B. -0.3 OF
Edwin Diaz AA-aaa 22 ’97 6 Ariz. -0.2 2B
Scott Aldred aaa-MLB 24 ’92 8 Col. -2.2 SP
Darrell Whitmore A+ 23 ’92 8 Fla. -1.8 OF
Eric Helfand A+-aa 23 ’92 9 Fla. -0.3 C
Ben Ford a+-AA 22 ’97 9 Ariz. -1.1 RP
Yamil Benitez AAA-mlb 25 ’97 10 Ariz. -1.0 OF
Neil Weber AA-aaa 24 ’97 11 Ariz. -0.1 SP-rp
Kip Yaughn AA 24 ’92 12 Fla. 0.0 SP
Jayhawk Owens AA 23 ’92 12 Col. 0.2 of-C
Jason Boyd AA 24 ’97 12 Ariz. -1.8 sp-RP
Brent Brede AAA-mlb 26 ’97 13 Ariz. -1.4 OF-1b
Dennis Springer aaa-MLB 32 ’97 13 T.B. -0.4 SP-rp
Freddie Benavides MLB 26 ’92 14 Col. -0.6 SS-IF
Dan Carlson AAA-mlb 27 ’97 14 T.B. -0.5 SP-RP
Roberto Mejia A+ 20 ’92 15 Col. -1.9 2B
Mike Duvall a+-AA 23 ’97 16 T.B. 0.3 RP
Scott Winchester A+-aa-aaa-mlb 24 ’97 17 Ariz. -1.0 RP-sp
John Leroy AA-mlb 22 ’97 17 T.B. 0 SP-rp
Steve Decker AAA-mlb 27 ’92 18 Fla. -0.3 C
Clint Sadowski aaa-MLB 25 ’97 18 Ariz. -1.9 RP-sp
Ryan Hawblitzel AA 21 ’92 19 Col. -0.2 SP
Danny Klassen AA 22 ’97 19 Ariz. -1.4 SS
Rick Gorecki A+-aa-mlb 34 ’97 20 T.B. 0.2 SP-rp
Scott Chiamparino -aa-aaa-mlb 26 ’92 21 Fla. 0 SP
Brett Merriman AA-aaa 26 ’92 21 Col. -1.3 RP
Todd Erdos AA-mlb 23 ’97 21 Ariz. -0.5 RP
Ramon Tatis MLB 24 ’97 21 T.B. -0.9 RP
Jim Tatum AAA 25 ’92 22 Col. -0.6 3B
Chris Clemons AAA-mlb 25 ’97 22 Ariz. 0 SP-rp
Andres Berumen A 21 ’92 23 Fla. -0.3 SP-RP
Eric Wedge AAA-mlb 24 ’92 24 Col. -0.3 C
Keith Shepherd AA-mlb 24 ’92 25 Col. -1.7 RP-sp
Calvin Jones aaa-MLB 29 ’92 26 Col. 0 RP
Carlos Mendoza AA-aaa-mlb 23 ’97 26 T.B. -0.2 CF
Bob Wolcott aaa-MLB 24 ’97 27 Ariz. -0.9 SP
Ryan Karp AAA-mlb 27 ’97 27 T.B. 0 RP-sp
Mike Bell aa-AAA 22 ’97 27 Ariz. 0.2 3B-2B
Bob Natal AA-mlb 27 ’92 28 Fla. -1.4 C
Marcus Moore AA 22 ’92 28 Col. -1.8 sp-RP
Jamie McAndrew AA-aaa 25 ’92 29 Fla. -0.3 SP-rp
Terrell Wade aa-mlb 24 ’97 30 T.B. 0.1 SP-rp
Kerwin Moore A+-aa 22 ’92 31 Fla. 0.0 CF
Mo Sanford aa-AAA 25 ’92 31 Col. 0.0 SP-rp
Pedro Castellano aa-AAA 22 ’92 32 Col. -1.2 3B-ss-1b
Scott Baker A+ 22 ’92 33 Fla. -0.1 SP
Scott Fredrickson AA 25 ’92 34 Col. -0.5 RP
Monty Fariss aaa-MLB 25 ’92 35 Fla. 0.1 2b-OF
Braulio Castillo AAA-mln 24 ’92 35 Col. 0 OF-cf
Marty Janzen AAA-mlb 24 ’97 35 Ariz. 0 sp-RP
Vaughn Eshelman AAA-MLB 28 ’97 35 T.B. 0 SP-rp
Jeff Tabaka AA 28 ’92 36 Fla. 0.0 RP
Top 1997 American League Expansion Draft Picks
Player Level Age Year From By Years AWAR Pos.
Bobby Abreu aaa-MLB 23 ’97 Hou. T.B. 14+ 58.7 OF
Randy Winn a+-AA 23 ’97 Fla. T.B. 13- 25.9 OF
Joe Randa aaa-MLB 27 ’97 Pit. Ariz. 9 16.8 3B
Jeff Suppan aaa-MLB 11 ’97 Bos. Ariz. 13- 13.3 SP
Tony Batista aaa-MLB 23 ’97 Oak. Ariz. 8+ 12.5 SS-if
Dmitri Young aa-MLB 24 ’97 Cin. T.B. 11 10.4 1B-OF
Damian Miller AAA-mlb 28 ’97 Min. Ariz. 10- 10.3 C
Cory Lidle aaa-MLB 25 ’97 Mets Ariz. 7+ 9.6 SP-RP
Brian Anderson AAA-mlb 25 ’97 Cle. Ariz. 6+ 9.0 SP
Jim Mecir AAA-mlb 27 ’97 Bos. T.B. 8 7.1 RP
Omar Daal aaa-MLB 25 ’97 Tor. Ariz. 6 5.7 RP-sp
Hector Carrasco aaa-MLB 28 ’97 K.C.R. Ariz. 10- 5.7 RP
Jason Johnson A+-aa-mlb 24 ’97 Pit. T.B. 9+ 4.6 SP
Bubba Trammell AAA-mlb 26 ’97 Det. T.B. 5-+ 4.6 OF
Miguel Cairo AAA-mlb 23 ’97 Cubs T.B. 12-+ 4.3 2B-IF
Herb Perry AAA-mlb 28 ’97 Cle. T.B. 6- 4.2 1B-3b-of
Albie Lopez aa-aaa-MLB 27 ’92 Cle. T.B. 5+ 3.8 sp-RP
Brian Boehringer MLB 28 ’97 N.Y.Y. T.B. 7 2.6 sp-RP
Russ Springer MLB 29 ’97 Hou. Ariz. 10-+ 2.7 RP
David Dellucci AA-mlb 24 ’97 Bal. Ariz. 12-- 2.5 OF
Esteban Yan AAA-mlb 22 ’92 Bal. T.B. 9 0.4 sp-RP
Kelly Stinnett AAA-mlb 27 ’97 Mil. Ariz. 10- 1.5 C
The first pick of the 1997 draft Tony Saunders had an almost identical post-pick career as the first pick of the 1992 draft David Nied: about 2.0 AWAR – that is not much at all, but not a complete failure either. You can put the first expansion pick ever Eli Grba in the same echelon.
While Arizona matched Tampa Bay in good picks, Arizona drew a far greater number of names who were total busts. In the first 13 rounds Arizona picked 7 players who failed to help any team significantly after the expansion draft. Tampa Bay took only one such player.
Being stuck with worthless picks is defensible as a high risk high reward strategy, if that team finds the players with the most long-term impact. However, the opposite happened to Arizona. The two biggest long term standouts from this draft were both taken by Tampa Bay: Bobby Abreu (58.7 AWAR / 164.2 WSAB) and Randy Winn (25.9/47.7). Abreu, of course, is up there with Trevor Hoffman as one of the top two expansion picks of all-time, while Winn would be about 7th behind Jeff Conine (22.2/54.2). Jim Fregosi, Mike Marshall, and Dean Chance. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, however, Abreu was immediately dispatched to Philadelphia in a trade that brought Kevin Stocker just past his usefulness (1.7/-6.3).
Overall, Tampa Bay has the fewest complete busts. Although, off to a good start, by the end of the draft, Colorado caught up with Arizona as the 90s expansion team with the most complete busts.
Arizona’s top pick of ’97 by my formula combining AWAR and WSAB was Jeff Suppan (13.3/41.1). However, he lasted less than a full season with the Diamondbacks. He was merely purchased by the Royals.
Dmitri Young (10.8/40.9) was yet another strong 1997 pick who never contributed directly for his expansion team. A week before the ’97 draft, the Cardinals traded Young to the Reds for the useless remainder of Jeff Brantley’s career. Young was selected by the Devil Rays then traded immediately back to the Reds as the player to be named later in their Mike Kelly deal. It looked as though Tampa Bay was trying to pull a fast one on Arizona to make sure they secured Kelly – and it backfired: Kelly would have made the list of complete busts above, if he were a pick; but not Delmon’s big brother Dmitri, who played 11 more seasons and in two all-star games.
Whole lotta flippin’ goin’ on
Joe Randa ranks third in the expansion class of ‘97 in WAR (16.8). He, too, was traded on draft day leaving Randy Winn as the only one of the top 5 expansion picks of ’97 (by AWAR + WSAB/2) who wasn’t traded before the inaugural season was over. Abreu, Young, and Randa were traded the same day they were drafted. A fourth notable flipping that fall was Brian Boehringer, who was selected by the Devil Rays from the Yankees, then immediately traded to the Padres for John Flaherty. Were expansion drafts increasing in behind-the-scenes razzle-dazzle? It wasn’t a new strategy. There has been a scattering of such deals throughout the history of expansion drafts from Eddie Bressoud (S.F.-Hou.-Bos. ’61) to Danny Jackson (Pit.-Fla.-Phi. in ’92). The Senators did it with their first pick of the first draft – flipping Bobby Shantz formally of the Yankees to the Pirates for three players. I mentioned before how Dean Chance, Dave Giusti, and Lou Piniella were flipped. Don Clendenon was drafted by the Expos in ’68 from the Pirates, where he had been an anchor at firstbase for 7 years. He was flipped to Houston, but he refused to go. So, they flipped another pick Jack Billingham instead. Eventually in June, Clendenon was traded to the Mets. He went along and helped propel that regular 10th place team to the championship.
WSAB rates Randa very differently than AWAR. He falls from third all the way to a tie for 12th with another thirdbaseman Tony Batista:
1997’s best by Win Shares Above Bench (post pick)
Bobby Abreu 164.2 OF (Hou. to T.B.)
Randy Winn 47.7 CF (Fla. to T.B.)
Jeff Suppan 41.1 SP (Bos. to Ariz.)
Dmitri Young 40.0 OF-1B (Cin. to T.B.)
Cory Lidle 19.6 SP (Mets to Ariz.)
Omar Daal 18.7 SP (Tor. to Ariz.)
Damian Miller 17.6 C (Min. to Ariz.)
Jim Mecir 16.6 RP (Bos. to T.B.)
Brian Anderson 16.5 SP (Cle. to Ariz.)
Bubba Trammell 16.3 OF (Det. to T.B.)
David Dellucci 16.0 OF (Bal. to Ariz.)
Tony Batista 15.4 IF (Oak. to Ariz.)
Joe Randa 15.4 3B (Pit. to Ariz.)
There is a large drop off in AWAR or WSAB after this group of ‘97 picks demonstrating the bell curve in four distinct echelons. Combine this list, the other list of significant ’97 picks as well as the list of busts and you can see the bell curve in 7 distinct increasingly large echelons. There is one player who soars above the rest of the ’97 draft: 7 time MVP candidate Abreu. He has three times as much WSAB as any other pick from the same class. Three other players (Winn, Suppan, and Dmitri Young) had impressive careers, but, at most, only two all-star appearances. They each still have twice as much WSAB as the next best pick. Then are the other 9 picks who were good enough for this Joe Randa list. They had an impact for their teams over a short time or less so over a longer time. Another 10 picks were significant enough to make the Top Picks list by the formula (Years + AWAR >7). Then another 21 picks who had only a slight marginal contribution – not worth mentioning on either list. Finally, there are 26 picks from the ’97 draft listed as essentially making no contribution to the Major Leagues after their selection.
Remember Jim Abbott coming out of college and instantly becoming a pitching ace for the California Angels? Well, "ace" might be stretching it, but without a lick of Minor League preparation, he was a Rookie of the Year candidate. In his third year, he finished third in Cy Young voting (18-11, 2.89, 243 Ing.) Baseball fans of the early ‘90s vividly remember him, because he achieved this with only about an 18" stub of a right arm. He had to shift his mitt onto his one hand after his pitch in case he had to field the ball. Using his right stub and torso in a quick motion, he could remove the glove, regain control of the ball, and make a play. The other teams often tried to bunt on him disbelieving he could do what he did so quickly. He started double plays. Why am I discussing Jim Abbott? Because as Abbott’s brief career was winding down, Tampa Bay drafted from the Yankees a reliever named Jim Mecir who had a deformed leg and two club feet. Once he started pitching for the Devil Rays, he was outstanding. His ERA was just under 3.00 his first three years after the draft, then under 4.00 his last five years – still 11% better than average as that was during the steroids era. Immediately following Abbott’s more incredible story, Mecir’s excellence, while overcoming his handicap, was hardly noted.
Obviously Houston (Bobby Abreu) was the biggest loser in the ’97 expansion draft. They placed their bets on Derek Bell to be their rightfielder for years to come. Bell wasn’t as good as Abreu in ’98 and that was Bell’s best year. Bell was terrible in ’99; played his last Major League game in ’01. The Astros had openings in their other two outfield positions, but, at least, they were able to fill them with astute trades for Moises Alou and Carl Everett. Boston, who lost Jeff Suppan (13.3/41.1) and Jim Mecir (7.1/16.7), were probably bigger losers than Florida, who’s only significant loss was Randy Winn (47.4/25.9) – and it took Winn several more years to become a reliably productive outfielder. Pittsburgh was dealt a heavy blow losing thirdbaseman Joe Randa and starter Jason Johnson. Aramis Ramirez was the Pirates’ 20 year old rookie hot sacker the following season, but he didn’t get his game up to Major League standards – at least, not in the Major Leagues - for another three years.
Dmitri Young and Jeff Suppan both made Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospect List for 1997 at 29th and 60th respectively. Both struggled in their rookie seasons and eventual draft year of 1997. Neither Bobby Abreu nor Randy Winn ever made BA’s Top 100. Abreu moved rapidly through the Cardinals farm system as a teenager reaching AAA at 21 and having a very good season at it. He regressed the next two years there and did not impress during his call-ups. It was after those two disappointing seasons that Abreu was made available for the draft. The lesson here may be don’t give up on 23 year olds (e.g. Travis Snider), even if they seem stalled at the AAA level. Randy Winn had only reached AA when he was drafted by Tampa Bay from the down state Marlins – a 23 year old centerfielder with a .795 OPS playing for Portland in the Eastern League.
Arizona copied Colorado and Florida by using a state for their team name and by aggressively using high priced free agents to help build their team. Only, they did it even better. Their ascent was astonishing. All-star shortstop Jay Bell and pitching ace Andy Benes and closer Gregg Olson were free agent signings their first year. Using superfluous players and added cash, they managed to upgrade Joe Randa into Travis Fryman, then Fryman into Matt Williams all before their first season started. All-star centerfielder Steve Finley and Hall of Fame shoo-in Randy Johnson were free agent Diamondbacks their second year. In the hitting friendly Arizona atmosphere, Johnson led the league in ERA and Innings pitched. Keeping in mind this was nearing the climax of the steroids era, the Diamondbacks traded an eternally disappointing Karim Garica to Detroit for a 31 year old league average hitting leftfielder named Luis Gonzalez. Suddenly for Arizona, Gonzalez batted .336/.403/.549 including 45 doubles and 26 homers. They boosted the Diamondbacks all the way to 100 wins. Travis Lee was a 10 million dollar free agent of Arizona’s right out of university. The Twins failed to offer him a contract in time after he was the no. 2 selection of the June draft. Lee blasted his way to AAA his first year as a pro and hit a .960 OPS for Tucson in 261 Plate Appearances. Lee couldn’t go any higher, as the Diamondbacks didn’t begin their first season as a Major League team until the following year. Lee did not disappoint as a rookie in Arizona’s inaugural season. After 2 ½ years, he was the principle player traded to acquire Curt Schilling from the Phillies. Johnson and Schilling were the super stud pitching duo who led the Diamondbacks to their championship in only their 4th season. Louis Gonzalez hit 57 bombs that year. Neither Lee nor Garcia ever significantly improved upon their seasons at age 23. Oops. Never mind the Dmitri Young lesson, or just know that it could go either way with well hyped 23 year olds.