This is part VI of my series on the greatest players of the last 50 years, which I have dubbed the "Dan Marks Era", as it aligns with the 50 years that I have been following baseball.
Here are the prior entries in the series:
The Greatest Third Basemen of the Last 50 Years
Did anyone just miss getting included due to the timeline cutoff?
Two players stand out as far as just missing the cutoff - Brooks Robinson and Ron Santo.
I got to witness some of both players' careers - Santo played until 1974, and Robinson until 1977. Santo, whose career midpoint was 1967, was 30 years old when I started following baseball, and he was an All-Star 3 times during this period, but his best years were clearly before I started observing. I left him out.
For Robinson, I gave serious consideration to waiving my midpoint rule. My general rule of thumb has been to eliminate anyone whose career midpoint was earlier than 1970, Robinson's midpoint was 1966, which was even earlier than Santo's. However, he was a harder decision for me. Robinson played through 1977, so I got to experience 8 seasons of his career. In addition, in 1970, my first time following the game, was the year that Robinson had the defining moment of his career (notwithstanding his 1964 AL MVP award) when he was a one-man wrecking crew in the World Series. And, the team he wrecked was my Cincinnati Reds, so he quickly became public enemy #1 in my eye.
The Reds were having a dream season - they had moved into a brand new home (Riverfront Stadium) during the season, they won 70% of their first 100 games, they swept the Pirates in the NLCS, and they were poised to win their first World Series in 30 years.
Brooks Robinson and the Orioles rudely interrupted those plans. Baltimore took the series 4 games to 1 and Robinson hit .429 with 2 HR's, 6 RBI, and countless human highlight reel defensive gems. It's certainly one of the more memorable individual postseason performances in history. It definitely left its impression on this young fan.
The point is, Robinson was a huge star when I started following the game (10-time All Star and 10 Gold Gloves before 1970) and he continued to be one for a few more years. Even if you start with 1970, he appeared in 5 All Star games and won 6 more Gold Gloves. Even in that abbreviated time frame, the only players who I've personally experienced winning more Gold Gloves at 3B are Mike Schmidt, Scott Rolen, and Nolan Arenado.
Robinson was still a huge star when I started following the game. But ultimately, I decided not to include him. The vast majority of his greatness was prior to my era. If I had included him? He'd probably be #6.
Any active players outside of the top 25 worth noting?
I have 4 active players in my top 25 and 7 more between26 and 50. We are living in a bit of a golden age for third basemen.
Outside the top 25.....
The 2 greatest third basemen in the history of the Washington Nationals (if you include only actual Nationals seasons, and not the Montreal Expos portion of the team's history), Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman, just missed at #26 and #27. Rendon will probably crash the party shortly, but Zimmerman is unlikely to move up any more.
Matt Carpenter, who has started at multiple positions but has been more 3B than anything else, is at #31, but he's 34 now and coming off his worst season, so we'll have to see if he can bounce back.
Kyle Seager is at #35. There might be some movement left, but probably not enough. His last 3 seasons haven't done much for him.
Alex Bregman is at #37, Kris Bryant is at #39, and Jose Ramirez is #40. They're all still pretty young (26, 28, and 27, respectively), and I would expect them all to move up quite a bit in the years to come, although Ramirez was way down last year from his prior 2 seasons.
Any surprise omissions?
Before collecting the data, I thought that maybe Aramis Ramirez or Carney Lansford might make the top 25. They ended up #36 and #34, respectively.
Other Administrative Notes
I'm going to cover Paul Molitor when I do Designated Hitters. I know he's often bundled with third basemen, but he had fewer than 800 games at 3B compared to nearly 1,200 as a DH, so I decided to cover him there. Same thing with Edgar Martinez - he had fewer than 600 games at 3B. He'll be in the DH article as well. Pete Rose is a tough case - he could be 1B, 3B, 2B, LF, or RF. I'm leaning towards LF for him.
Note that there are 172 players in my data set of third basemen.
#25-Eric Chavez
Best category: WAR (23rd)
Worst category: All Star Games (84th)
I find it hard to believe that Chavez didn't manage to make an All Star team, but sure enough, he never did.
I though Chavez had the potential to be one of the all-time greats at third base. He got off to a terrific start.
Home Run Leaders Through Age 24, Third Basemen
|
Rankk
|
Player
|
HR
|
|
1
|
Eddie Mathews
|
190
|
|
2
|
Manny Machado
|
138
|
|
3
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
138
|
|
4
|
Bob Horner
|
138
|
|
5
|
Troy Glaus
|
118
|
|
6
|
Eric Chavez
|
105
|
|
7
|
Ron Santo
|
104
|
|
8
|
Adrian Beltre
|
99
|
|
9
|
David Wright
|
97
|
|
10
|
Ryan Zimmerman
|
91
|
Chavez continued to play well through age 27 or 28, but then started to decline pretty rapidly, and ended up spending the last half of his career in a lesser role. He sits in a 3-way tie with Buddy Bell and Robin Ventura as a 6-time Gold Glove winner at 3B.
#24-Bill Madlock
Best category: Win Shares (21st)
Worst category: dWAR (163rd)
I think it's fair to say that high batting averages were more highly regarded several decades ago. It's not that they're no longer important, but I think many morefans understand its limitations.
When I was in my first decade of following the game (the 1970's), Rod Carew was the undisputed batting average king, but Madlock was probably next in line in case Carew were to ever abdicate his throne. Madlock was considered a true "hitting artist", combing both a sparkling average with the ability to avoid strikeouts.
1970-1979, Players with .300 or Higher Batting Average, Minimum 3,000 PA's:
|
Rank
|
Player
|
PA
|
BA
|
|
1
|
Rod Carew
|
5,916
|
.343
|
|
2
|
Bill Madlock
|
3,464
|
.320
|
|
3
|
Dave Parker
|
3,607
|
.317
|
|
4
|
Pete Rose
|
7,411
|
.314
|
|
5
|
George Brett
|
3,815
|
.310
|
|
6
|
Ken Griffey
|
3,273
|
.310
|
|
7
|
Jim Rice
|
3,456
|
.310
|
|
8
|
Fred Lynn
|
3,035
|
.309
|
|
9
|
Ralph Garr
|
5,373
|
.307
|
|
10
|
Steve Garvey
|
5,199
|
.304
|
|
11
|
Al Oliver
|
6,020
|
.303
|
|
12
|
Joe Torre
|
4,025
|
.303
|
|
13
|
Bob Watson
|
5,625
|
.301
|
If you were to drop the threshold all the way down to 1,000 plate appearances, you would pull in some additional names like Roberto Clemente (who got in 3 seasons in the decade before his death), Lyman Bostock, Garry Templeton, Matty Alou, and one of the true batting average artists, pinch-hitter extraordinaire Manny Mota.
Madlock was one of the toughest to strike out during that decade as well.
1970-1979, Players with Fewest K's per 600 PA, Minimum 3,000 PA's:
|
Player
|
PA
|
K
|
K/600 PA
|
|
Felix Millan
|
4,765
|
165
|
20.8
|
|
Bill Buckner
|
4,635
|
205
|
26.5
|
|
Dave Cash
|
5,546
|
279
|
30.2
|
|
Tommy Helms
|
3,147
|
161
|
30.7
|
|
Manny Sanguillen
|
4,746
|
270
|
34.1
|
|
George Brett
|
3,815
|
223
|
35.1
|
|
Ted Sizemore
|
4,975
|
310
|
37.4
|
|
Pete Rose
|
7,411
|
464
|
37.6
|
|
Cesar Tovar
|
3,633
|
228
|
37.7
|
|
Bill Madlock
|
3,464
|
222
|
38.5
|
Brett, Rose, and Madlock made both lists. As you can see, a lot of low-power, bat control hitters are prominent on the second list, especially second basemen - Sizemore, Helms, Cash, and Millan. Millan in particular was known for his extreme batting grip. He literally choked about 40-50% of the way up the bat. If you don't remember him, search for his batting grip images on the web - they're a sight to behold.
I'm not sure, but I believe Madlock is the only 4-time batting average champ who is not enshrined in Cooperstown. Not saying he should be in, because I don't consider him a strong enough overall candidate. Definitely all of the 5-time champs are in.
Madlock wasn't much defensively, but all in all, it was a pretty a good career - .305 lifetime average, decent pop, had a career 123 OPS+, and he was a big part of the 1979 Pirates championship team.
#23-Troy Glaus
Best category: All Star Games (15th)
Worst category: dWAR (57th)
In the Will Clark profile under the first basemen review, I reviewed several players who peaked early when it came to home run hitting. Glaus is a prominent example of that type. In his second full time season, Glaus hit a league-leading 47 home runs at age 23. He also hit a solid .284 with a .404 OBP. The future was bright. While he did have several other good seasons, he never quite was able to reach that age 23 level again.
By the way, in that 2000 season, Glaus, despite leading the AL in home runs, did not receive a single MVP vote, not even a down-ballot mention. I'm sure it happens every now and then (I know Mark Trumbo led the league a few years back and didn't receive any votes, but I wonder how often it happens?
#22-Doug DeCinces
Best category: WAR (18th)
Worst category: All Star Games (53rd)
I know it's been asked before, but how good would that 1982 Baltimore infield have looked with DeCinces instead of Glenn Gulliver and Floyd Rayford playing alongside of Cal Ripken on the left side of the Orioles infield? (Actually, Ripken and Rich Dauer did tally more time at 3B that year than those 2, but they're already listed as the regulars at SS and 2B, respectively). In any case, an infield of Eddie Murray, Rich Dauer, Ripken, and DeCinces (who finished third in the MVP voting that year behind Robin Yount and Murray) would have been impressive, and might have helped make up the Orioles' 1 game deficit behind the Brewers.
Decinces' record for the Angels, in total, is very similar to what he posted for the Orioles. Each stint basically comprises half of his career totals in virtually every stat. A good defensive player, but wasn't able to win any Gold Glove awards. It's probably a coin flip between DeCinces and the previous player on this list (Troy Glaus) as to who would be the all-time Angels third baseman (super-utility guy Chone Figgins could be a contender too).
#21-Gary Gaetti
Best category: Games (5th)
Worst category: Win Shares/162 (75th)
Gaetti also finished quite high in dWAR (7th).
A 20-year veteran of the Major Leagues, Gaetti had one of the longest careers of any third baseman. As I've mentioned in the other articles, when I use "Games" as a category in the point system, it's using a player's total games, not just the games played at the position at which the player is listed. Gaetti is fifth in my data set in games played among the third basemen, but 2 of the 4 ahead of him (Darrell Evans and George Brett) had a lot of games at other positions. The only players with more career defensive games at third base than Gaetti are Brooks Robinson, Adrian Beltre, and Graig Nettles.
Gaetti, of course, does well in the "cumulative" categories (games, total WAR, total Win Shares), and not as well in the rate categories (WAR/162 and Win Shares/162). He's top 10 in career home runs by players who were primarily third basemen (9th) and he won 4 straight AL Gold Gloves from 1986-1987. One of the real key players of the Twins' 1987 championship run, he was the ALCS MVP that year.
#20-Tim Wallach
Best category: All Star Games & Games (10th in each)
Worst category: WAR/162 (56th)
This run of third basemen on the list (DeCinces, Gaetti, Wallach) are pretty similar to each other - batting averages of .255-.260, relatively low OBP's (roughly .310-.330 career marks), pretty slow afoot. But, they provided value through pretty good power (about 20 HR's a year on average) and good glove work (Gaetti and Wallach were Gold Glove winners, and DeCinces certainly could have won one or two). Dare we call them a "family"? Not sure who the head of this particular family would be. Brooks Robinson, perhaps? I'm not equating these 3 with Robinson. Robinson had a significantly better career, of course. He did better in MVP voting than any third baseman other than Mike Schmidt and was the gold standard defensively, but the point of a family is whether players are of a certain "type", and Brooks embodies the general characteristics outlined above (his batting average was definitely higher earlier in his career before settling at .267).
Wallach went through the minor leagues pretty quickly, splitting his time among 1B, 3B, and OF while there. He also split time among those 3 positions in his first full year in the Majors (1981) before settling in as the regular third baseman for the Expos for more than a decade. I'd put Wallach as the #2 NL third baseman of the 1980's (behind Mike Schmidt).
#19-Toby Harrah
Best category: Win Shares (10th)
Worst category: dWAR (114th)
Courtesy of baseball-reference.com, here are the players with the most regular seasons games played with no postseason appearances (1903 and later). I'm listing the ones with 2,000 or more games.
*=Hall of Famer
|
Player
|
Years Played
|
Games Played
|
Seasons
|
|
Ernie Banks*
|
1953-1971
|
2,528
|
19
|
|
Luke Appling*
|
1930-1950
|
2,422
|
20
|
|
Mickey Vernon
|
1939-1960
|
2,409
|
20
|
|
Buddy Bell
|
1972-1989
|
2,405
|
18
|
|
Ron Santo*
|
1960-1974
|
2,243
|
15
|
|
Joe Torre*
|
1960-1977
|
2,209
|
18
|
|
Toby Harrah
|
1969-1986
|
2,155
|
17
|
|
Harry Heilmann*
|
1914-1932
|
2,147
|
17
|
|
Eddie Yost
|
1944-1962
|
2,109
|
18
|
|
Roy McMillan
|
1951-1966
|
2,093
|
16
|
|
Don Kessinger
|
1964-1979
|
2,078
|
16
|
|
George Sisler*
|
1915-1930
|
2,055
|
15
|
|
Cy Williams
|
1912-1930
|
2,002
|
19
|
|
Adam Dunn
|
2001-2014
|
2,001
|
14
|
As you might expect, most of these players played the bulk of their careers before the era of expanded playoffs, and only Dunn has been active since baseball went to three rounds of playoffs in 1995.
By the way, as an added bonus, here are the players whose entire careers have occurred within the 3+ round playoff era who have the most games played without experiencing the postseason:
|
Player
|
Start
|
Finish
|
Games Played
|
Seasons
|
|
Adam Dunn
|
2001
|
2014
|
2,001
|
14
|
|
Vernon Wells
|
1999
|
2013
|
1,731
|
15
|
|
Randy Winn
|
1998
|
2010
|
1,717
|
13
|
|
Jose Vidro
|
1997
|
2008
|
1,418
|
12
|
|
Brian Roberts
|
2001
|
2014
|
1,418
|
14
|
|
Jack Wilson
|
2001
|
2012
|
1,370
|
12
|
|
Bobby Higginson
|
1995
|
2005
|
1,362
|
11
|
|
Ty Wigginton
|
2002
|
2013
|
1,362
|
12
|
|
Matt Lawton
|
1995
|
2006
|
1,334
|
12
|
|
Tony Batista
|
1996
|
2007
|
1,309
|
11
|
Anyway, I'm off track. Back to Harrah....
One of the things that always comes to mind when I think of Harrah was that he was traded straight up for another player who played the same position - Harrah was traded in 1978 at age 29 from the Texas Rangers to the Cleveland Indians, straight up, for 26-year old Buddy Bell. Harrah was probably the better known player at the time, a 3-time All Star (vs. 1 for Bell), but Bell was younger.
The interesting thing is that, if you put together an all-time Rangers team, Harrah would probably be the shortstop, and Bell might be the third baseman, although, now that I think about it, you might have to go with Adrian Beltre. Or you might DH Beltre and play Bell at third for his defense (Beltre was outstanding defensively in his career too, but I think Bell was the better defensive player if you compare them only during their Texas years). Or, you could go with Elvis Andrus at SS instead of Harrah. Or Michael Young. Or maybe A-Rod for his 3 outstanding seasons there. Or maybe you have to discount A-Rod's time. You know what....forget I even brought it up......
I really haven't said much about Harrah in this whole entry. Here's one observation - he was a very underrated player, but one very unusual thing I noticed about him when looking at his baseball-reference.com page was that he had a very low Hall of Fame Monitor score of 20. 20! He's got a very respectable rWAR of 51.4, and I'm not sure I've seen anyone at that level with such a low Hall of Fame monitor score. Harrah was a valuable player, good power, drew a good number of walks, could steal some bases, could play shortstop....but he really didn't check any boxes that would traditionally attract Hall of Fame voters' attention. He didn't play in the spotlight, his teams generally weren't very good, he didn't win awards, he didn't really stand out. He was valuable and underrated....but when he came up on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1992, he drew one vote....one less than Steve Yeager.
#18-Manny Machado
Best category: WAR/162 (8th)
Worst category: Games (93rd)
The first of 4 active third basemen in my list, Machado could finish well up this list before he's done. He's already put in 8 seasons at the Major League level, and he's still only 27 years old. He's already got 200 home runs, 4 All Star games, 2 Gold Gloves, 5 consecutive 30+ home run seasons (a streak that's still active), and two top-5 MVP finishes.
Another indication of his fast start is this:
Highest Career rWAR Through Age 26 Season by Third Basemen:
|
Rank
|
Player
|
WAR
|
|
1
|
Eddie Mathews
|
45.1
|
|
2
|
Manny Machado
|
36.7
|
|
3
|
George Brett
|
36.2
|
|
4
|
Ron Santo
|
35.9
|
|
5
|
John McGraw
|
35.0
|
|
6
|
Dick Allen
|
31.5
|
|
7
|
Evan Longoria
|
29.7
|
|
8
|
David Wright
|
29.4
|
|
9
|
Mike Schmidt
|
27.3
|
|
10
|
Harlond Clift
|
27.3
|
#17-Darrell Evans
Best category: Games (4th)
Worst category: dWAR (100th)
The dWAR figure is a little misleading because Evans it represents his entire career, and he had a lot of negative figures after his third base days were over. Evans accumulated over 850 games at first base and more than 250 games at DH. But, I think it's fair in that he didn't play nearly as long at third base as most of the other top third basemen (he's 46th all time in defensive games at third base).
You every now and then hear about Evans being a dark horse Hall of Fame candidate, in part because his rWAR is near that "magical" 60 figure (58.8), and he combined very good power with a ton of walks, but I find it hard to believe that he'll ever get in. His 1973 season was terrific with 41 HR's and a .400+ OBP, but even in that season, I think more people remember the other two Braves who hit 40+ HR's that year (Hank Aaron and Dave Johnson) than remember Evans. And on the best team he ever played for, the 1984 Tigers, chances are that there a ton of other players you think of first. Trammell & Whitaker, for sure. Kirk Gibson. Willie Hernandez. Jack Morris & Dan Petry. Chet Lemon and Lance Parrish. Maybe even Milt Wilcox and Aurelio Lopez. For most of his career, I think Evans' image was more that of a good supporting character rather than as a leading man.
#16-Nolan Arenado
Best category: WAR/162 (5th)
Worst category: Games (96th)
Like Machado, Arenado is an active player who is off to a great start to his career. He's a couple of years older than Machado. Arenado's biggest edge over Machado in the methodology at this point in is in MVP Points, where Arenado is ranked 6th compared to Machado's 12th. Arenado's MVP finishes in the past 5 seasons have been 8th,5th,4th,3rd, and 6th.
Arenado, as you may be aware, is also off to a perfect 7-for-7 in Gold Gloves to start his career. The only Major Leaguers I'm aware of who had a longer streak to start their careers are Johnny Bench and Ichiro Suzuki (both with 10).
Like Machado, I would expect Arenado to continue climbing these rankings in the years to come. He's been extremely consistent over the past 5 seasons. Trade rumors were swirling around Arenado this offseason - it will be interesting to see if a change in home address would have any impact on his stat line.
#15-Matt Williams
Best category: All Star Games (10th)
Worst category: Win Shares/162 (31th)
Now that I think about it, Williams is sort of a member of the family I alluded to earlier when talking about Wallach, DeCinces, and Gaetti - .260ish average, doesn't draw a lot of walks, good power, good glove, slow afoot - except Williams probably had too much HR power to be a tight fit with the others. Williams averaged around 33 HR's per 162 games, about 50% higher than the other trio. But the other characteristics are pretty tight.
Williams was kind of all or nothing on MVP Points - he had a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and two 6th place finishes - and that was it. No years where he got down-ballot support. Williams was pretty good with the glove as well - 4 Gold Gloves, and was a good enough fielder that he was deployed for over 100 games at shortstop. You know when you see third basemen who are able to do that (Clete Boyer comes to mind, Manny Machado too), chances are the guy is pretty good defensively.
Williams has a legitimate case as the best third baseman for two different NL West franchises - the Giants and the Diamondbacks. His stiffest competition on the Giants, even if you include the New York phase of the team's history, would be Art Devlin, Jim Ray Hart, Darrell Evans or Freddie Lindstrom. I'd personally go with Williams. And on the Diamondbacks....I don't know....Mark Reynolds? Chad Tracy? Jake Lamb? Again, I think I'd go with Williams.
#14-Ron Cey
Best category: All Star Games (7th)
Worst category: MVP Points(36th)
Mike Schmidt was unquestionably the dominant NL third baseman from the mid-70's to the late '80's, but Cey would have to be the #2. From 1973-1982, Cey was probably never any worse than the #4 NL third baseman in any given year, and about half that time he would probably be considered a solid #2 guy.
In contrast to the family mentioned earlier (Wallach/DeCinces/Gaetti), Cey belongs to a different one. They share several of the same characteristics - .250 to .260ish average, 20 HR's a year, slow afoot, good defense - but with one key difference, the ability to take a walk, and therefore their OBP's tend to be higher, more in the .350 to .360 area. Cey is that type, and I would put him in a family with Sal Bando and Robin Ventura, players like that.
Cey is probably never going into the Hall of Fame, but he was a very good, valuable, championship quality player. I have always been intrigued by the 1984 NL East champion Cubs, a team that ended a nearly 40-year postseason drought for that franchise. Cey was one of several veterans that had been assembled on that team who had prior World Series experience - Cey, Gary Matthews, Dave Lopes, Larry Bowa, Keith Moreland, Jay Johnstone, Richie Hebner, Bob Dernier, Dick Ruthven. It was an intriguing blend of veterans who had been to (and even won) the World Series with other teams, along with younger up-and-coming stars like Ryne Sandberg, Leon Durham, and Jody Davis. It was fleeting, as they spent the next 4 seasons in 4th place or lower, and by the time they returned to the postseason in 1989 the team had pretty much been overhauled aside from Sandberg, Rick Sutcliffe, and Scott Sanderson, but it was a memorable season for the Cubbies.
#13-Josh Donaldson
Best category: WAR/162 and MVP Points (3rd)
Worst category: Games (95th)
Donaldson is shaping up as one of those players whose legacy is unsettled, in part because it's hard to associate him with a franchise. So far, he's had 4 years with the A's (only 2 of which were full time), 4 with the Blue Jays (only 2 full time), 1 year with Atlanta, and now he's on the move again after signing with the Twins. With the Jays he won one MVP and finished 4th another year, with the A's he had a 4th place and an 8th place, and in his lone year with the Braves, he finished 11th. Good power, good glove, good at drawing walks, doesn't steal much but when he does attempt to steal he's successful (83% success rate), and definitely well respected.
Donaldson is still playing well, but it feels like he hasn't been in the spotlight very long, as it took him a little while to get going. His first full season wasn't until he was 27, and he's missed significant time in a couple of the years since then, so it might be a challenge for him to post truly impressive career totals, but I guess we'll see how long he can stay productive. When healthy, he's one of the best.
#12-Evan Longoria
Best category: WAR7 (9th)
Worst category: Games (32nd)
Evan Longoria, whose nickname is "Longo", played college ball at Long Beach State. What are the odds of all that? I'd say they're.....long?
The last of the active third basemen in the top 25 (Machado, Arenado, Donaldson, Longoria), Longoria is still young enough (34) to continue moving up, and he might be destined for the top 10.
Longoria, similar to Manny Machado, is one of the great young third basemen we've seen. He was Rookie of the Year at age 22, won 2 Gold Gloves by age 24, was an All Star his first 3 seasons, drew MVP votes in each of his first 4 years, and in 3 of his first 4 seasons he generated rWAR's of 7.0 or higher.
Since then, he's continued to play well, although at a little bit lower level than he started out at. He really hasn't had any truly bad seasons. He's had one or two that clearly weren't up to his usual standards, but he's been pretty reliable. After his second Gold Glove, he had a dry spell of 6 seasons before winning his third. I don't know if that's a record, but it seems like it would be rare. Seems like once a player who has won a Gold Glove goes that long without one, it's tough to get that respect back.
#11-Robin Ventura
Best category: dWAR(6th)
Worst category: MVP Points (36th)
Can Ventura's career seen as a disappointment? I would hate to characterize it that way because, after all, I have him as the 11th best third baseman of the last half century, and over the entire history of the Major Leagues, he's probably top 20. He had good power, a good batting eye, and was a 6-time Gold Glove winner. And yet, I somehow can't help feel a little let down. I know that's not fair to him, but then expectations were extremely high for Ventura coming into the league.
I'll explain, but first, a quick quiz. What do these players have in common?
Robin Ventura
Bob Horner
Dave Winfield
Will Clark
and.....Brooks Kieschnick?
Answer: They were the first 5 players inducted to the College Baseball Hall of Fame. The inaugural class was inducted in 2006 (that class also included legendary coaches Bobby Winkles (Arizona State), Skip Bertman (LSU), Ron Fraser (Miami, FL), Cliff Gustafson (Texas), and
Rod Dedeaux (USC)). Among the players, Kieschnick is the one that stands out because the others all had successful MLB careers, but he was a deserving inductee, a 3-time All-American, starring both at bat and on the mound.
Who is the greatest college baseball player of all time? Not the best Major Leaguer to play college ball, but who was the greatest in college? It's not an easy thing to find consensus on.
If you search for the greatest college basketball player ever, chances are the consensus #1 pick would be Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), but you'll likely see several others mentioned frequently as strong contenders, including Bill Walton, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, David Thompson, Bill Bradley, Christian Laettner, Elvin Hayes, Jerry West, and Bill Russell. By the way, people will try to convince you that Michael Jordan should be in that conversation as well, but don't believe them. Yes, he's probably the greatest basketball player ever. And he was an outstanding college basketball player. But the greatest college player ever? Not in my book.
College Football? Probably the consensus pick would be Herschel Walker, but you're also bound to see a lot of support for Jim Brown, Archie Griffin, Tim Tebow, Barry Sanders, Bo Jackson, or Earl Campbell. Old timers would also throw their support towards the likes of Doak Walker, Red Grange, or even Jim Thorpe.
College Baseball? It's harder to search and get a good answer on that. Based on what I can gather, I think Ventura has a case as the greatest. He hit .428 in his college career (including .469 as a freshman) while playing for Oklahoma State, including a a 58-game hitting streak in his sophomore year. Baseball America's held a "Player of the Century" poll for college baseball for players who played pre-2000, and Ventura finished third behind Bob Horner and a fellow Oklahoma State alum, Pete Incaviglia, who hit 100 home runs in college, including 48 in one season, both of which are still records. Ventura was also a member of the 1988 U.S. Olympic gold medal winning team.
There are several Major League Hall of Famers who are also enshrined in the College Baseball Hall of Fame - Dave Winfield, Lou Gehrig, Christy Mathewson, Jackie Robinson, Andre Dawson, Lou Brock, George Sisler, Barry Larkin, and Joe Sewell. And there are many College Hall of Famers who excelled at the college game and then went on to notable Major League careers, including Will Clark, Lance Berkman, Fred Lynn, John Olerud, Burt Hooten, Greg Swindell, Rafael Palmeiro, Joe Carter, B.J. Surhoff, Dick Groat, Tim Wallach, Nomar Garciaparra, Sal Bando, Tino Martinez, Alex Fernandez, Pete Incaviglia, Frank Viola, Rick Monday, Billy Wagner, Mark Kotsay, and J.D. Drew.
So who's the greatest collegiate baseball player of all time? Maybe it's Horner (who, as difficult as it is to imagine for those who only saw him later on as a corner infielder in the Major Leagues, played a lot at second base and even some shortstop at Arizona State). Could be Incaviglia. Maybe it's Winfield, who was an outstanding pitcher for the University of Minnesota in addition to being a dangerous bat. However, based on what I know, I think I'd go with Ventura.
#10-David Wright
Best category: Win Shares 7, All Star Games, and Win Shares/162 (5th in each)
Worst category: dWAR (97th)
Among the 172 third basemen in my 50-year dataset, who's the best "all-around" player? It depends how you define it. How about if you define it as:
· Hits for good average
· Has a high OBP
· Hits for good power
· Drives in runs
· Scores a lot of runs
· Runs well/steals bases
· Gold Glove winner
How many players check all of those boxes?
Mike Schmidt? Well, basically everything except for hitting for average
Wade Boggs? Not much in the home run/power department
Chipper Jones? No Gold Gloves
Adrian Beltre? Career OBP was under .340
Buddy Bell? Horrible base stealer
You go up and down the list, and everyone has a weak link, except for two. George Brett (who did win one Gold Glove at age 32), and David Wright.
Wright had a .300 career batting average through age 30 before his last few seasons dragged it down to .296. He had a healthy .376 OBP. He exceed 30 HR's twice, 100 runs twice, 100 RBI five times, stole as many as 34 bases in a season, and was a 2-time Gold Glove winner. His only real weakness was his inability to stay healthy as he reached his 30's. But, for an all-around game at third base, it's hard to top Captain America.
#9-Sal Bando
Best category: WAR7 (6th)
Worst category: dWAR (20th)
The great A's teams of the 1970's are represented in the Hall of Fame by 3 players - Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, and Catfish Hunter, but they have others who could have also joined them, including Vida Blue, Bert Campaneris, and Captain Sal Bando.
One of the real interesting MVP votes I've seen is the 1971 AL ballot. Vida Blue was named the MVP for his 24-8, 1.82 performance for the A's, and he probably did deserve it. But, that same year, for the same team, Sal Bando hit 24 HR's, drove in 94, and hit .271. He finished in 2nd place, and actually received 4 first place votes.
I think that's a real sign of the respect that Bando generated. To be sure, it wasn't a great era or environment for offense, but that's a pretty impressive finish for someone with those stats. And it wasn't the only time - in 1973, Bando placed 4th in the voting, and in 1974, despite a .243 average, he finished 3rd. Bando did place in the top 5 in the AL in RBI each of those seasons, and that undoubtedly helped, but I think it was, as much as anything, recognition of just how important of a role he played as one of the veteran leaders of that great club.
I keep waiting for Bando to be offered the lead role in the Ernest Borgnine biopic. Check out the photo on his Wikipedia page and you'll see what I mean.....
#8-Buddy Bell
Best category: dWAR (2nd)
Worst category: MVP Points (36th)
Much like Ken Griffey Jr., Bell was born in Pennsylvania (Bell in Pittsburgh, Griffey Jr. in Donora), but both grew up in Cincinnati since their fathers (Gus Bell and Ken Griffey Sr.) were starting outfielders for the Reds during their childhood. Both Bell and Griffey Jr. went on to star at Moeller High School, the same school that calls Hall of Famer Barry Larkin an alumnus as well, not to mention others with Major League experience such as Len Matuszek, David Bell (Buddy's son), Mike Bell (another son of Buddy's), Adam Hyzdu, Brent Suter, and Bill Long. That's one hell of a start on an all-time high school team.
One interesting note is that, if you rank high schools by the total Major League WAR represented by players who attended there, 12 of the top 13 would be California schools, with Cincinnati Moeller being the lone exception. Here's a quick rundown of the top WAR-producing high schools:
|
#
|
School
|
Location
|
Players
|
WAR
|
Top Players
|
|
1
|
Fullerton
|
Fullerton, CA
|
7
|
287.8
|
Walter Johnson, Arky Vaughan, Del Crandall
|
|
2
|
McClymonds
|
Oakland, CA
|
12
|
283.6
|
Frank Robinson, Vada Pinson, Ernie Lombardi, Curt Flood
|
|
3
|
Fresno
|
Fresno, CA
|
12
|
265.9
|
Tom Seaver, Frank Chance, Jim Maloney, Dutch Leonard
|
|
4
|
Fremont
|
Los Angeles, CA
|
25
|
250.3
|
Chet Lemon, Bobby Doerr, Eric Davis, George Hendrick
|
|
5
|
Moeller
|
Cincinnati, OH
|
13
|
242.5
|
Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Larkin, Buddy Bell
|
|
6
|
Junipero Serra
|
San Mateo, CA
|
11
|
241.6
|
Barry Bonds, Jim Fregosi, Gregg Jefferies
|
|
7
|
Polytechnic
|
Long Beach, CA
|
18
|
225.7
|
Tony Gwynn, Chase Utley, Vern Stephens
|
|
8
|
Centennial
|
Compton, CA
|
10
|
210.0
|
Reggie Smith, Roy White, Lonnie Smith, Don Wilson
|
|
9
|
Sacred Heart Cathedral
|
San Francisco, CA
|
6
|
198.1
|
Harry Heilmann, Joe Cronin, Dolph Camilli
|
|
10
|
Galileo
|
San Francisco, CA
|
9
|
190.8
|
Joe DiMaggio, Tony Lazzeri, Dom DiMaggio, Vince DiMaggio
|
|
11
|
Woodrow Wilson
|
Long Beach, CA
|
13
|
189.0
|
Bobby Grich, Bob Lemon, Bob Bailey
|
|
12
|
Herbert Hoover
|
San Diego, CA
|
12
|
186.6
|
Ted Williams, Ray Boone, Jack Harshman
|
|
13
|
Encinal
|
Alameda, CA
|
6
|
183.5
|
Willie Stargell, Jimmy Rollins, Chris Speier, Tommy Harper
|
The 14th school, with 182.4 WAR, is St. Mary's of Baltimore, but their entire roster consists of Babe Ruth, so he would have to pitch and play outfield. It would sort of be like when Eddie Feigner would hit the road with his touring "The King and His Court" softball show, although at least Eddie had 3 other men on his team.
Bell certainly is one of the greatest defensive third basemen ever, both statistically and by reputation.
First the statistical:
Career Defensive WAR (dWAR) - Third Basemen
|
Name
|
dWAR
|
|
Brooks Robinson
|
39.1
|
|
Adrian Beltre
|
27.2
|
|
Buddy Bell
|
23.8
|
|
Clete Boyer
|
21.6
|
|
Graig Nettles
|
21.4
|
|
Scott Rolen
|
21.2
|
|
Lee Tannehill
|
18.6
|
|
Mike Schmidt
|
18.4
|
|
Robin Ventura
|
17.9
|
|
Jimmy Collins
|
16.8
|
|
Name
|
Gold Gloves
|
|
Brooks Robinson
|
16
|
|
Mike Schmidt
|
10
|
|
Scott Rolen
|
8
|
|
Nolan Arenado
|
7
|
|
Buddy Bell
|
6
|
|
Eric Chavez
|
6
|
|
Robin Ventura
|
6
|
|
Adrian Beltre
|
5
|
|
Ken Boyer
|
5
|
|
Doug Rader
|
5
|
|
Ron Santo
|
5
|
In addition to Bell, you'll find Robinson, Rolen, Beltre, Schmidt, and Ventura on both lists, as are the Boyer brothers, at least in combination (Clete is on the first list and Ken is on the second one). Arenado will probably make the dWAR top 10 before he's done, and he's well on his way to passing Rolen and Schmidt on the Gold Glove list in the coming years if he keeps it up.
The dWAR list is mostly players from the last half century or so, but it does capture 2 old-timers who were active at around the same time as each other more than a century ago - Hall of Famer Jimmy Collins, and then Lee Tannehill, who had claim to fame as Jesse Tannehill's brother as well as being a starter on the famous 1906 Chicago White Sox team, a.k.a. the "Hitless Wonders". Tannehill did his part in defining that team's reputation as he hit .183 that season. He did legitimately have an outstanding reputation as a defensive standout at third, as did Collins.
Are there any other outstanding third basemen who don't make one list or the other? Gary Gaetti just misses both leader boards (11th in dWAR, won 4 Gold Gloves). Aurelio Rodriguez was an outstanding defensive third baseman, but only won 1 Gold Glove. He's 13th on the dWAR list.
One player who stirs up a lot of discussion on the topic of top defensive third basemen is Pie Traynor. By reputation, he was considered the greatest third baseman of all time until roughly the1950's-1970's and beyond when you started to see the likes Eddie Mathews, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and George Brett come onto the scene, and a big part of that status was his reputation as an outstanding defender. However, his dWAR is pretty mediocre (around 2.0 for his career). That's not proof, of course, but he's definitely one third baseman whose record doesn't jive with his reputation. Billy Cox of the 1950's era "Boys of Summer" Dodger teams is another one who had a stellar defensive reputation but whose dWAR doesn't support quite support that status.
#7-Graig Nettles
Best category: dWAR and Games (3rd in each)
Worst category: Win Shares/162 (43rd)
The greatest .248 player in Major League history.
Actually, let's formalize that a little bit. Which players had the greatest careers despite a mediocre batting average (excluding pitchers)? Let's set the threshold at a batting average of .250 or below, and sorted by career rWAR. Here are the top 20:
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Primary Pos
|
WAR
|
From
|
To
|
BA
|
G
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OBP
|
|
1
|
Graig Nettles
|
3B
|
68.0
|
1967
|
1988
|
.248
|
2,700
|
390
|
1,314
|
.329
|
|
2
|
Darrell Evans
|
3B
|
58.8
|
1969
|
1989
|
.248
|
2,687
|
414
|
1,354
|
.361
|
|
3
|
Jim Wynn
|
CF
|
55.8
|
1963
|
1977
|
.250
|
1,920
|
291
|
964
|
.366
|
|
4
|
Curtis Granderson
|
CF
|
47.0
|
2004
|
2019
|
.249
|
2,057
|
344
|
937
|
.337
|
|
5
|
Gene Tenace
|
C
|
46.8
|
1969
|
1983
|
.241
|
1,555
|
201
|
674
|
.388
|
|
6
|
Mike Cameron
|
CF
|
46.7
|
1995
|
2011
|
.249
|
1,955
|
278
|
968
|
.338
|
|
7
|
Darrell Porter
|
C
|
40.9
|
1971
|
1987
|
.247
|
1,782
|
188
|
826
|
.354
|
|
8
|
Mark Belanger
|
SS
|
40.9
|
1965
|
1982
|
.228
|
2,016
|
20
|
389
|
.300
|
|
9
|
Jim Sundberg
|
C
|
40.5
|
1974
|
1989
|
.248
|
1,962
|
95
|
624
|
.327
|
|
10
|
Donie Bush
|
SS
|
39.3
|
1908
|
1923
|
.250
|
1,945
|
9
|
445
|
.356
|
|
11
|
Russell Martin
|
C
|
38.7
|
2006
|
2019
|
.248
|
1,693
|
191
|
771
|
.349
|
|
12
|
Paul Blair
|
CF
|
37.7
|
1964
|
1980
|
.250
|
1,947
|
134
|
620
|
.302
|
|
13
|
Dick McAuliffe
|
2B
|
37.6
|
1960
|
1975
|
.247
|
1,763
|
197
|
696
|
.343
|
|
14
|
Jose Bautista
|
RF
|
36.7
|
2004
|
2018
|
.247
|
1,798
|
344
|
975
|
.361
|
|
15
|
Ken McMullen
|
3B
|
34.0
|
1962
|
1977
|
.248
|
1,583
|
156
|
606
|
.316
|
|
16
|
Dwayne Murphy
|
CF
|
33.2
|
1978
|
1989
|
.246
|
1,360
|
166
|
609
|
.356
|
|
17
|
Jose Valentin
|
SS
|
31.6
|
1992
|
2007
|
.243
|
1,678
|
249
|
816
|
.321
|
|
18
|
Eddie Joost
|
SS
|
31.4
|
1936
|
1955
|
.239
|
1,574
|
134
|
601
|
.361
|
|
19
|
Greg Vaughn
|
LF
|
30.8
|
1989
|
2003
|
.242
|
1,731
|
355
|
1,072
|
.337
|
|
20
|
Chris Speier
|
SS
|
30.6
|
1971
|
1989
|
.246
|
2,260
|
112
|
720
|
.327
|
5 shortstops, 5 center fielders, 4 catchers, 3 third basemen, 1 second baseman, 1 left fielder, and 1 right fielder. As you might have guessed, there are several stellar defensive players (Nettles, Belanger, Sundberg, Blair) and several players who provided a good power/good walk combination (Evans, Wynn, Tenace, Porter, McAuliffe, Bautista, Murphy, Joost).
You may be aware that Nettles, despite his outstanding defensive prowess and stellar reputation, only won 2 Gold Gloves in his career, in part because Brooks Robinson was apparently ordained with the inalienable right to be the Gold Glove king for all eternity.
Want to do a fun "what if"? What if Gold Gloves were awarded to the highest Fielding War in the league? I'm not advocating this, of course, because I do think it's something that should be voted on....but what if they did? What would the Brooks Robinson 16-year domination of the American League Gold Glove at third base look like in an alternate universe?
Courtesy of The Baseball Gauge, here are the yearly 3B Fielding WAR leaders during that time frame (1960-1975), contrasted against Brooks Robinson himself. (Technical note - The Baseball Gauge uses something called "Fielding WAR", which is basically dWAR but without the positional adjustment. But it's essentially the same concept).
|
Year
|
Gold Glove Winner
|
Team
|
Fielding WAR
|
Fielding WAR Leader
|
Team
|
Fielding WAR
|
|
1960
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.6
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.6
|
|
1961
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.4
|
Clete Boyer
|
NYY
|
2.9
|
|
1962
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.6
|
Clete Boyer
|
NYY
|
2.8
|
|
1963
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.1
|
Clete Boyer
|
NYY
|
1.6
|
|
1964
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.6
|
Pete Ward
|
CHW
|
1.8
|
|
1965
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
0.8
|
Ken McMullen
|
WAS
|
1.2
|
|
1966
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
0.1
|
Ed Charles
|
KCA
|
0.9
|
|
1967
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
3.7
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
3.7
|
|
1968
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
3.9
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
3.9
|
|
1969
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.5
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.5
|
|
1970
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
0.4
|
Aurelio Rodriguez
|
CAL/WAS
|
3.2
|
|
1971
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.3
|
Graig Nettles
|
CLE
|
3.5
|
|
1972
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.2
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.2
|
|
1973
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.0
|
Graig Nettles
|
NYY
|
2.2
|
|
1974
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.6
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
1.6
|
|
1975
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.0
|
Brooks Robinson
|
BAL
|
2.0
|
Here's what that hypothetical 16-season redistribution would look like:
|
Name
|
Total
|
|
Brooks Robinson
|
7
|
|
Clete Boyer
|
3
|
|
Graig Nettles
|
2
|
|
Ken McMullen
|
1
|
|
Pete Ward
|
1
|
|
Aurelio Rodriguez
|
1
|
|
Ed Charles
|
1
|
|
Total
|
16
|
Robinson would have still won almost half (and actually would have been awarded another one in 1959 under these assumptions, rather than Frank Malzone). 7 or 8 would be impressive in its own right, and in the meantime, a few others could have gotten their moment in the sun.
Getting slightly off topic....I always thought the tendency to keep awarding a Gold Glove over and over to the same person, year after year, never made much sense. It just seems like lazy thinking to me, and feeds in to the mindset that defense is a "constant", which I think is nuts. You can have great defensive seasons and mediocre defensive seasons out of the same player.
Was Greg Maddux really the best fielding pitcher 13 years in a row? Bob Gibson 9 times in a row? Mike Schmidt won 9 in a row. Johnny Bench won 10 in a row. Keith Hernandez won 11 in a row. Ozzie won 13 in a row. Pudge Rodriguez won 10 in a row. Jim Kaat won 14 in a row, for crying out loud, even one year when he made 8 errors in 46 chances (yes, I know that errors aren't everything, but that's still pretty bad coming from a pitcher). Fine, these are legendary fielders, and I agree that Robinson is the greatest defensive third baseman ever, but bestowing an honor onto Brooks Robinson 16 years in a row just because he's a legend and everyone simply assumes he's the best every year is no way to run a credible award process.
Clete Boyer never won a Gold Glove until he moved over the NL and was finally awarded one at age 32. Graig Nettles didn't win his 2 Gold Gloves until after Brooks Robinson had ceased to be a starting third baseman. It wouldn't have killed anyone to have recognized their excellence a couple of times each during Robinson's reign.
#6-Scott Rolen
Best category: dWAR (4th)
Worst category: MVP Points (17th)
Rolen is basically our third baseman Hall of Fame line of demarcation. Everyone ranked higher than him is either in the Hall of Fame (Schmidt, Brett, Boggs, Chipper) or will be in the Hall of Fame (Beltre). Everyone below him is either a) still active or b) retired and not in the Hall of Fame. Could Nettles or Bando or Bell make it someday? David Wright? Maybe. But I wouldn't count on it.
Rolen is the dividing line. He might make it. He might not. He's an interesting candidate, and he's pointing in the right direction. He's been on 3 BBWAA ballots, and he's improved from 10% to 17% to 35% over that time. And with no new and exciting candidates coming on to the ballot this year, he's likely to continue to ascend.
I've made this observation before, but when it comes to the Hall of Fame, I think that Rolen is the new version of Lou Whitaker. Well, it's not a perfect comparison because Whitaker was a one-and-done on the BBWAA ballot, but in terms of what is referred to as the "Hall of Fame Statistics" section on baseball-reference.com, They couldn't be more similar:
|
Name
|
HOF Standards
|
HOF Monitor
|
Black Ink
|
Gray Ink
|
rWAR
|
JAWS Ranking at Primary Position
|
|
Scott Rolen
|
40
|
99
|
0
|
27
|
70.0
|
10th
|
|
Lou Whitaker
|
43
|
93
|
0
|
31
|
74.9
|
13th
|
Rolen did do better in awards (7 All Star games and 8 Gold Gloves vs. 5 and 3, respectively, for Whitaker), and he did a little better in MVP voting (a 4th, a 14th, and 2 down-ballot results vs. one 8th place finish for Whitaker), but I think they've very similar Hall of Fame candidates. They were both really good for a really long time, they were both All Star level players, but while they were active, they generally weren't perceived as being among the very top players in their respective eras. At or near the top at their respective positions? Yes. But not elite in terms of when people think of the top overall players who helped define their eras. At least that's my observation.
In any case, I think their times are coming. Whitaker was on the Modern Era ballot last year and got half of the votes he needed to get in. Rolen is at 35% on the BBWAA ballot with 7 more years before he runs out of time there. I think it's just a matter of time for both of them.
#5-Chipper Jones
Best category: Win Shares and WAA (3rd in each)
Worst category: dWAR (115th)
If we were ranking strictly based on a total, all -around offensive performance, Chipper might have an argument as the greatest third baseman ever. I'd still put Eddie Mathews and Mike Schmidt ahead of him as hitters, and maybe George Brett too (although Chipper's all around offensive game may have been a little better), but Chipper is right up there in the discussion. Even if you include all of baseball history (which would pull in Mathews into the equation) rather than just the last 50 years, Jones is 4th in HR and 2nd in RBI. He hit .303 with a .401 OBP and a 141 OPS+. He had a year where he went 25 for 28 in stolen bases. He had an outstanding all-around offensive skill set.
Highest Career Offensive WAR (oWAR) for Third Basemen:
|
Name
|
oWAR
|
|
Eddie Mathews
|
93.7
|
|
Mike Schmidt
|
91.8
|
|
Chipper Jones
|
88.3
|
|
George Brett
|
84.8
|
|
Wade Boggs
|
81.4
|
|
Adrian Beltre
|
71.6
|
|
Ron Santo
|
66.5
|
|
Toby Harrah
|
62.5
|
|
Home Run Baker
|
59.4
|
|
Sal Bando
|
58.3
|
|
Ken Boyer
|
55.9
|
|
Stan Hack
|
55.2
|
#4-Adrian Beltre
Best category: Games, dWAR (1st in each)
Worst category: Win Shares/162 (24th)
Beltre had an interesting career arc. Beltre's stats through age 29:
|
Year
|
G
|
PA
|
R
|
H
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
BB
|
SO
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
|
1998-2008
|
1,570
|
6,400
|
774
|
1,581
|
242
|
862
|
98
|
459
|
1,010
|
.271
|
.327
|
.459
|
107
|
|
Average
|
143
|
582
|
70
|
144
|
22
|
78
|
9
|
42
|
92
|
|
per 162
|
162
|
660
|
80
|
163
|
25
|
89
|
10
|
47
|
104
|
He had one outstanding season as an MVP runner up (but no other seasons with any MVP votes), 2 Gold Gloves, and had appeared in zero (count 'em, zero) All Star games. He was a quality player, but he didn't look to me like his career was on a Hall of Fame path.
His counting stats were pretty good because he had been playing regularly since age 20, so he got an early start and didn't have any major injuries, but I think it's more accurate to say his image in his 20's, aside from the one big season in 2004 (48 HR, 121 RBI, .334), was that of a talented player who wasn't performing to his potential.
And then, he turned it on, starting with Boston in 2010 at age 31. From that point, he made the All Star team 4 years out of 5, and received votes in 7 straight MVP ballots, finishing as high as 3rd. After his career best 2004 season, his next 6 highest WAR seasons were all at age 31 or older.
Beltre's stats from age 31 on:
|
Year
|
G
|
PA
|
R
|
H
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
BB
|
SO
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
|
2010-2018
|
1,252
|
5,253
|
696
|
1,466
|
227
|
801
|
10
|
370
|
648
|
.307
|
.358
|
.514
|
130
|
|
Average
|
139
|
584
|
77
|
163
|
25
|
89
|
1
|
41
|
72
|
|
per 162
|
162
|
680
|
90
|
190
|
29
|
104
|
1
|
48
|
84
|
Through age 29 Beltre did generate a lot of bulk numbers, and his average and per-162 stats don't look all that much better than they were in his 20's, but most players tend to decline during their 30's rather than getting better, and his rate stats like batting average, OBP, and slugging all got much better. His batting average was 36 points higher, his OBP was 31 points higher, his slugging was 55 points higher, and his OPS+ was a robust 130 rather than the more ordinary 107 in his earlier years.
I wonder how often it happens that players who don't appear to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory end up doing so well in their 30's that they become Cooperstown-bound? About 56% of Beltre's career rWAR was generated at age 30 or later, which is pretty high, although nowhere near the most.
Among pitchers, Randy Johnson comes to mind. Through age 29, he didn't resemble a Hall of Famer in any way, but really turned it on in his 30's. Dazzy Vance is another famous example - he hadn't won a single game prior to his age 31 season, but he's in the Hall of Fame. Sam Rice only had 2 full time seasons prior to age 30, but 82% of his career value was post-30. Jackie Robinson didn't debut in the Majors until age 28, but of course there were extenuating circumstances there. There are many other examples of players who have a large % of their value post-age 30 who end up in the Hall, but those are some of the ones who come to mind first.
#3-Wade Boggs
Best category: WAR7, All Star Games, Win Shares 7, WAA (2nd in each)
Worst category: MVP Points (18th)
A remarkable career, but I wasn't aware of his (relative) lack of MVP support until I did this exercise. Among the third basemen in my dataset, Boggs was only tied for 18th in MVP Points. Remember that MVP Points was a little calculation I did that awarded 10 points for each first place finish, 5 points for each top 5 finish, and 1 point for each top 10 finish.
Here are the players who did as good or better than Boggs in this category.
(*-denotes active player)
|
Name
|
MVP
1st Place
|
MVP
Top 5
|
MVP
Top 10
|
MVP Total Pts
|
|
Mike Schmidt
|
3
|
5
|
9
|
64
|
|
George Brett
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
35
|
|
Josh Donaldson*
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
29
|
|
Chipper Jones
|
1
|
2
|
6
|
26
|
|
Terry Pendleton
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
22
|
|
Nolan Arenado*
|
0
|
3
|
5
|
20
|
|
Sal Bando
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
18
|
|
Kris Bryant*
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
17
|
|
Adrian Beltre
|
0
|
2
|
6
|
16
|
|
Ken Caminiti
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
16
|
|
Matt Williams
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
14
|
|
Manny Machado*
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
13
|
|
Anthony Rendon*
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
13
|
|
Howard Johnson
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
13
|
|
Bobby Bonilla
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
|
Alex Bregman*
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
|
Jose Ramirez*
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
|
Wade Boggs
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
9
|
|
David Wright
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
9
|
By the way, even if I were to use MVP "Award Shares", Boggs would still only been around 14th).
Boggs was a great player and an no-doubt Hall of Famer, but the closet he ever got to an MVP was a 4th place finish in 1985 behind Don Mattingly, George Brett, and Rickey Henderson. Basically, Boggs was top-10 (or close to it) every season he was the batting champ, but that's about as far as voters were willing to go.
#2-George Brett
Best category: All Star Games (1st)
Worst category: dWAR (70th)
Brett was also 2nd in MVP Points, Games, and Win Shares. He didn't make an All Star team his first 2 years in the league, then he ripped off 13 in a row, then finished his last 5 years without being named an All Star.
Hard to believe it's now been 40 years since that magical 1980 season when Brett flirted with .400 before ending at .390, taking home the MVP and leading the Royals to their first World Series in franchise history (where they lost to the Phillies). One of the things I had long since forgotten (if I even realized it in the first place) was that Brett only played 117 games that year.
I figured that 117 games must be the fewest games ever played by a player in his MVP season (not including pitchers, of course), and it turns out that that's true, provided that you exclude strike seasons (1994, 1981). Since the Major Leagues expanded to a 162 game schedule, the lowest figure other than Brett's that I've seen is Mickey Mantle's 1962 season (the third of his 3 MVP's) with 123 games. Mantle was still really good that year, but he was also helped by a notable lack of strong candidates that year (the highest rWAR in the AL that year was 6.2 by Hank Aguirre). MVP's with fewer than 130 games played are pretty rare.
#1-Mike Schmidt
Best category: Schmidt was first in 7 of the 11 categories (WAR, WAR/162, WAR7, MVP Points, Win Shares, Win Shares 7, and WAA.
Worst category: Games (9th)
Once again, as was the case in every other position I've reviewed so far, the #1 was an easy choice, as Schmidt's total of 94.7 points in my methodology easily exceeded Brett's 77.2 figure.
As is the case with most of the top players on these various position lists, I struggle to try and find anything new to say about them that you don't already know. What can I tell you about Mike Schmidt that you haven't read about or observed on your own previously?
So, sometimes I just look for the strange and unusual. For example, when looking at Mike Schmidt's career, rather than just revisiting all of his successes, I'm actually more intrigued by his rough first season as a regular. In 1973, at age 23, Schmidt played 132 games for the Phillies, and did hit 18 home runs. Not so bad. However, he also infamously hit .196. Not so good. Obviously, things got better for him in 1974 as he began a streak of 3 consecutive NL home run titles, eventually winning 8.
But that first year of his got me thinking....what were the best offensive years ever by a player who hit under .200? Not talking overall value, which would include defense, but strictly offense.
Highest Offensive WAR (oWAR) since 1901, Minimum 300 PA's, Less than .200 Batting Average
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
oWAR
|
BA
|
PA
|
HR
|
RBI
|
H
|
BB
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
1
|
Tom Tresh
|
1968
|
NYY
|
2.4
|
.195
|
590
|
11
|
52
|
99
|
76
|
.304
|
.308
|
|
2
|
Carlos Pena
|
2010
|
TBR
|
2.1
|
.196
|
582
|
28
|
84
|
95
|
87
|
.325
|
.407
|
|
3
|
Lou Criger
|
1905
|
BOS
|
2.0
|
.198
|
375
|
1
|
36
|
62
|
54
|
.322
|
.272
|
|
4
|
Denis Menke
|
1973
|
CIN
|
1.4
|
.191
|
322
|
3
|
26
|
46
|
69
|
.368
|
.270
|
|
5
|
Mike Schmidt
|
1973
|
PHI
|
1.3
|
.196
|
443
|
18
|
52
|
72
|
62
|
.324
|
.373
|
|
6
|
Gary Sanchez
|
2018
|
NYY
|
1.3
|
.186
|
374
|
18
|
53
|
60
|
46
|
.291
|
.406
|
|
7
|
Russell Martin
|
2018
|
TOR
|
1.3
|
.194
|
352
|
10
|
25
|
56
|
56
|
.338
|
.325
|
|
8
|
Ron Hansen
|
1968
|
TOT
|
1.2
|
.196
|
414
|
9
|
32
|
71
|
46
|
.290
|
.312
|
|
9
|
Darren Daulton
|
1991
|
PHI
|
1.2
|
.196
|
335
|
12
|
42
|
56
|
41
|
.297
|
.365
|
|
10
|
Dan Uggla
|
2013
|
ATL
|
1.2
|
.179
|
537
|
22
|
55
|
80
|
77
|
.309
|
.362
|
|
11
|
Mike Zunino
|
2014
|
SEA
|
1.2
|
.199
|
476
|
22
|
60
|
87
|
17
|
.254
|
.404
|
|
12
|
Mark Reynolds
|
2010
|
ARI
|
1.1
|
.198
|
596
|
32
|
85
|
99
|
83
|
.320
|
.433
|
|
13
|
Monte Cross
|
1904
|
PHA
|
1.0
|
.189
|
576
|
1
|
38
|
95
|
46
|
.266
|
.256
|
|
14
|
Derek Dietrich
|
2019
|
CIN
|
1.0
|
.187
|
306
|
19
|
43
|
47
|
28
|
.328
|
.462
|
|
15
|
Rob Deer
|
1991
|
DET
|
0.9
|
.179
|
539
|
25
|
64
|
80
|
89
|
.314
|
.386
|
I had assumed that Schmidt's 1973 would be on here, and indeed it was. Aside from the low average, it was a pretty decent rookie campaign - he hit 18 home runs, and he drew quite a few walks (62 in 443 plate appearances), so his OBP was a not-so-bad .324. He had some value, and definitely showed a lot of potential.
But, the really interesting thing to me are some of the other entries on the list. You may have noticed that 2 of the seasons that made this list (Tresh and Hansen) were from the infamous 1968 "Year of the Pitcher", when the Major League batting average was a mere .237 and the OBP was only .299. The seasons seemed to come in pairs (2 entries each from 1973, 1991, 2010, and 2018) and "almost pairs" (1904 & 1905, 2013 and 2014), not to mention one as recently as last year (Derek Dietrich's 2019).
Carlos Pena in 2010 had a very healthy combination of 28 HR's and 87 walks. Incidentally, Pena had another very similar season 2 years later - 19 HR and 87 BB to go along with a .197 average. Mark Reynolds made the list with possibly the most "Mark Reynolds" season of his career - 32 HR, 83 BB, .198 average, and a league-leading 211 strikeouts.
I think the one that fascinates me most is the other one that occurred in the same year as Schmidt's - the 1973 season posted by Denis Menke. That one happened right under my nose as a young Reds fan.
As you probably know, Menke was one of the 5 players that came to Cincinnati from Houston in what is known as the "Joe Morgan" trade. Morgan, Menke, Jack Billingham, Cesar Geronimo, and Ed Armbrister moved to the Reds, with Lee May, Tommy Helms, and Jimmy Stewart going to the Astros. Menke was probably the second most well-known of the 5 who went to the Reds - Billingham was still up and coming, Geronimo was unproven, Armbrister was a bit-player. But Menke was 30 years old and had been a two-time All Star with the Astros. He was filling an important role for the Reds as they executed a move across the diamond for Tony Perez (moving him from third base to first base to replace May). Perez had always been considered a bit of a liability defensively at third base, and Menke gave them a legitimate defensive presence there.
In any case, the thing that struck me about Menke's 1973 stat line was the OBP. Despite the .191 average, Menke's OBP was a rather healthy .368, as he managed to draw 69 walks in a little over 300 plate appearances, or a rate of 129 walks per 600 plate appearances.
And, I realize that we're way off track from Mike Schmidt now, but that got me to thinking how many players pulled off that type of combination? A sub .200 batting average, but greater than a .360 OBP. Turns out that it's only happened 2 other times (minimum 300 PA's):
|
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
BA
|
PA
|
H
|
BB
|
OBP
|
HR
|
RBI
|
|
Denis Menke
|
1973
|
CIN
|
0.191
|
322
|
46
|
69
|
.368
|
3
|
26
|
|
Jimmy Sheckard
|
1913
|
STL/CIN
|
0.194
|
330
|
49
|
68
|
.368
|
0
|
24
|
|
Lance Blankenship
|
1993
|
OAK
|
0.190
|
328
|
48
|
67
|
.363
|
2
|
23
|
Eerily similar seasons.
Top 25 Third Basemen of the Past 50 Years - Ranking/Points
.
|
Rank
|
Name
|
From
|
To
|
Points
|
|
1
|
Mike Schmidt
|
1972
|
1989
|
94.7
|
|
2
|
George Brett
|
1973
|
1993
|
77.2
|
|
3
|
Wade Boggs
|
1982
|
1999
|
76.7
|
|
4
|
Adrian Beltre
|
1998
|
2018
|
72.6
|
|
5
|
Chipper Jones
|
1993
|
2012
|
68.9
|
|
6
|
Scott Rolen
|
1996
|
2012
|
64.3
|
|
7
|
Graig Nettles
|
1967
|
1988
|
60.2
|
|
8
|
Buddy Bell
|
1972
|
1989
|
58.2
|
|
9
|
Sal Bando
|
1966
|
1981
|
55.7
|
|
10
|
David Wright
|
2004
|
2018
|
52.9
|
|
11
|
Robin Ventura
|
1989
|
2004
|
52.6
|
|
12
|
Evan Longoria
|
2008
|
2019
|
52.3
|
|
13
|
Josh Donaldson
|
2010
|
2019
|
50.4
|
|
14
|
Ron Cey
|
1971
|
1987
|
50.0
|
|
15
|
Matt Williams
|
1987
|
2003
|
48.9
|
|
16
|
Nolan Arenado
|
2013
|
2019
|
48.3
|
|
17
|
Darrell Evans
|
1969
|
1989
|
48.2
|
|
18
|
Manny Machado
|
2012
|
2019
|
45.4
|
|
19
|
Toby Harrah
|
1969
|
1986
|
45.2
|
|
20
|
Tim Wallach
|
1980
|
1996
|
43.1
|
|
21
|
Gary Gaetti
|
1981
|
2000
|
41.0
|
|
22
|
Doug DeCinces
|
1973
|
1987
|
40.8
|
|
23
|
Troy Glaus
|
1998
|
2010
|
38.8
|
|
24
|
Bill Madlock
|
1973
|
1987
|
38.7
|
|
25
|
Eric Chavez
|
1998
|
2014
|
38.6
|
Distribution of the top 25 by decade (using career mid-point):
|
Decade
|
Total
|
|
1970s
|
5
|
|
1980s
|
6
|
|
1990s
|
4
|
|
2000s
|
5
|
|
2010s
|
5
|
Pretty even distribution.....
In the first article (which also had the catcher rankings), a reader requested #26-50 as well (without commentary), so I've been including those as well, with the caveat that these are unadjusted rankings at this point, strictly based on how everyone outside of the top 25 did based on the raw methodology. So, no subjective adjustments on my part. Also note that any active players are very volatile and fluid in how they fare in the various categories, and the ones who are not at the ends of their careers will likely change considerably in the years ahead.
|
Rank
|
Name
|
From
|
To
|
Points
|
|
26
|
Anthony Rendon
|
2013
|
2019
|
38.6
|
|
27
|
Ryan Zimmerman
|
2005
|
2019
|
38.4
|
|
28
|
Bobby Bonilla
|
1986
|
2001
|
38.0
|
|
29
|
Terry Pendleton
|
1984
|
1998
|
38.0
|
|
30
|
Ken Caminiti
|
1987
|
2001
|
37.9
|
|
31
|
Travis Fryman
|
1990
|
2002
|
37.7
|
|
32
|
Matt Carpenter
|
2011
|
2019
|
37.6
|
|
33
|
Don Money
|
1968
|
1983
|
37.3
|
|
34
|
Carney Lansford
|
1978
|
1992
|
37.0
|
|
35
|
Kyle Seager
|
2011
|
2019
|
36.9
|
|
36
|
Aramis Ramirez
|
1998
|
2015
|
36.8
|
|
37
|
Alex Bregman
|
2016
|
2019
|
36.7
|
|
38
|
Jeff Cirillo
|
1994
|
2007
|
36.5
|
|
39
|
Kris Bryant
|
2015
|
2019
|
36.4
|
|
40
|
Jose Ramirez
|
2013
|
2019
|
35.0
|
|
41
|
Edgardo Alfonzo
|
1995
|
2006
|
34.6
|
|
42
|
Mike Lowell
|
1998
|
2010
|
33.5
|
|
43
|
Justin Turner
|
2009
|
2019
|
32.7
|
|
44
|
Martin Prado
|
2006
|
2019
|
32.4
|
|
45
|
Howard Johnson
|
1982
|
1995
|
32.1
|
|
46
|
Richie Hebner
|
1968
|
1985
|
31.7
|
|
47
|
Kevin Seitzer
|
1986
|
1997
|
31.5
|
|
48
|
Melvin Mora
|
1999
|
2011
|
30.8
|
|
49
|
Chase Headley
|
2007
|
2018
|
30.3
|
|
50
|
Corey Koskie
|
1998
|
2006
|
29.8
|
Next up, a few days down the road (hopefully) : center fielders
Thanks for reading.
Dan