Continuing the countdown with the next 10 in the rankings (21-30)......
Up until this point, we've only encountered 2 Hall of Famers - Jack Morris at #48, and Catfish Hunter at #38. In this next group of 10, we'll encounter one more Hall of Famer, although there will probably be one or two more from this group that eventually makes it.
#30-Dave Stieb
Best category: All Star Games (14th with 7), WAR7 (21st with 44.5)
Worst category: K/BB ratio (201st with 1.61)
I was a little surprised Stieb didn't have a better K/BB ratio. I figured he would at least have a 2:1 K/BB ratio. but he only reached that level in a season twice in his career. I was also surprised that he led the led 5 times in hit batsmen....I don't remember getting a sense of that while he was active, but there it is.
In the Orel Hershiser (#37) profile, I mentioned how, if current standards for Cy Young voting were applied (leveraging a Tom Tango formula for Cy Young voting predictions that has been uncannily accurate in recent years), Hershiser might have picked up a couple of extra awards, for a total of 3 in the 1980's. Hershiser's 1980's counterpart in the American League was Stieb, who may very well have taken home as many as 3 awards in a 4-year span (although not necessarily, as we'll dive into).
Below is how the decade might have looked differently in the AL if applying the Tango formula, a formula that takes innings, earned runs allowed, strikeouts, and wins and crunches them into a formula that produces Tango Cy Young Points. Again, this methodology has been quite accurate in predicting Cy Young award winners in recent years, and it's kind of fun to see who might have won if applied retroactively.
(Green implies that a different pitcher would have been projected to win the award):
|
Year
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
1980
|
Steve Stone
|
3rd
|
Mike Norris
|
|
1981
|
Rollie Fingers
|
X
|
Steve McCatty
|
|
1982
|
Pete Vuckovich
|
6th
|
Dave Stieb
|
|
1983
|
La Marr Hoyt
|
7th
|
Jack Morris
|
|
1984
|
Willie Hernandez
|
X
|
Dave Stieb
|
|
1985
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
3rd
|
Dave Stieb
|
|
1986
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1987
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1988
|
Frank Viola
|
1st
|
Frank Viola
|
|
1989
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
1st
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
Stieb actually finished 4th, 7th, and 7th in those votes, respectively. Looking at the field of candidates one year at a time:
1982 was not a particularly strong field in the AL. Here are some stats and the voting results for the top finishers in the 1982 Cy Young voting:
|
Finish
|
Name
|
Tm
|
Vote Pts
|
1st Place
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
SV
|
IP
|
SO
|
|
1
|
Pete Vuckovich
|
MIL
|
87
|
14
|
2.8
|
18
|
6
|
3.34
|
114
|
0
|
223.2
|
105
|
|
2
|
Jim Palmer
|
BAL
|
59
|
4
|
4.8
|
15
|
5
|
3.13
|
129
|
1
|
227.0
|
103
|
|
3
|
Dan Quisenberry
|
KCR
|
40
|
4
|
3.3
|
9
|
7
|
2.57
|
159
|
35
|
136.2
|
46
|
|
4
|
Dave Stieb
|
TOR
|
36
|
5
|
7.6
|
17
|
14
|
3.25
|
138
|
0
|
288.1
|
141
|
|
5
|
Rick Sutcliffe
|
CLE
|
14
|
1
|
5.7
|
14
|
8
|
2.96
|
140
|
1
|
216.0
|
142
|
|
6
|
Geoff Zahn
|
CAL
|
7
|
0
|
2.8
|
18
|
8
|
3.73
|
109
|
0
|
229.1
|
81
|
|
7
|
Bill Caudill
|
SEA
|
4
|
0
|
4.4
|
12
|
9
|
2.35
|
181
|
26
|
95.2
|
111
|
|
7
|
Bob Stanley
|
BOS
|
4
|
0
|
4.6
|
12
|
7
|
3.10
|
140
|
14
|
168.1
|
83
|
|
9
|
Dan Petry
|
DET
|
1
|
0
|
4.2
|
15
|
9
|
3.22
|
126
|
0
|
246.0
|
132
|
Stieb finished 4th in the voting behind Pete Vuckovich, Jim Palmer, and Dan Quisenberry. Vuckovich went 18-6 for the pennant-winning Brewers, he really wasn't a great pitcher that year, and he is often cited as one of the least deserving winners in the history of the award. Quisenberry had his usual high quality year, but, as a closer, probably wouldn't have placed as high today. Palmer might have won, but Stieb pitched a lot more innings (288 vs. 227), and that might have helped carry the vote using today's standards. The Tango formula has 1982 as Stieb #1, Rick Sutcliffe #2, and Dan Petry #3. Note that the Tango formula does not incorporate WAR, although it's certainly something that current voters at least look at, and Stieb did have the highest pitcher WAR.
The 1984 Cy Young award saw 2 closers finish at the top of the voting - Willie Hernandez of the World Series champion Detroit Tigers, who converted 32 out of 33 save opportunities (and also was named the AL MVP), and, once again, Dan Quisenberry of the Royals, who saved 44 games that season, just one shy of his record-setting performance the year before.
Here are some stats and the voting results for the top 1984 Cy Young finishers:
|
Finish
|
Name
|
Tm
|
Vote Pts
|
1st Place
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
SV
|
IP
|
SO
|
|
1
|
W. Hernandez
|
DET
|
88
|
12
|
4.8
|
9
|
3
|
1.92
|
204
|
32
|
140.1
|
112
|
|
2
|
D. Quisenberry
|
KCR
|
71
|
9
|
3.3
|
6
|
3
|
2.64
|
152
|
44
|
129.1
|
41
|
|
3
|
Bert Blyleven
|
CLE
|
45
|
4
|
7.2
|
19
|
7
|
2.87
|
144
|
0
|
245.0
|
170
|
|
4
|
Mike Boddicker
|
BAL
|
41
|
3
|
5.2
|
20
|
11
|
2.79
|
139
|
0
|
261.1
|
128
|
|
5
|
Dan Petry
|
DET
|
3
|
0
|
3.5
|
18
|
8
|
3.24
|
121
|
0
|
233.1
|
144
|
|
6
|
Frank Viola
|
MIN
|
2
|
0
|
4.5
|
18
|
12
|
3.21
|
131
|
0
|
257.2
|
149
|
|
7
|
Jack Morris
|
DET
|
1
|
0
|
2.5
|
19
|
11
|
3.60
|
109
|
0
|
240.1
|
148
|
|
7
|
Dave Stieb
|
TOR
|
1
|
0
|
7.9
|
16
|
8
|
2.83
|
146
|
0
|
267.0
|
198
|
Tango Points would have predicted a tight race among Stieb, Boddicker, and Blyleven, with Stieb coming out on top despite not generating as many wins, as his combination of innings pitched and K's might have been enough to tip the scales (Stieb led the league in innings, fewest H/9, and ERA+). Their ERA's (and ERA+'s) are all pretty close. In all likelihood, it would have been a tossup, and if voters were to take WAR into consideration, that might have been enough to throw the result Stieb's way.
In general, I think if WAR would have been known and published in the early 1980's, Stieb would certainly have gotten more attention. Below is his strong 5-year run at or near the top of that category in the AL in the early '80's::
1981 AL 4.4 (3rd) (Strike Season)
1982 AL 7.6 (1st)
1983 AL 7.0 (1st)
1984 AL 7.9 (1st)
1985 AL 6.8 (2nd)
Finally, looking at 1985:
|
Finish
|
Name
|
Tm
|
Vote Pts
|
1st Place
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
SV
|
IP
|
SO
|
|
1
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
KCR
|
127
|
23
|
7.1
|
20
|
6
|
2.87
|
143
|
0
|
235.1
|
158
|
|
2
|
Ron Guidry
|
NYY
|
88
|
4
|
4.5
|
22
|
6
|
3.27
|
123
|
0
|
259.0
|
143
|
|
3
|
Bert Blyleven
|
TOT
|
9
|
1
|
6.7
|
17
|
16
|
3.16
|
134
|
0
|
293.2
|
206
|
|
3
|
Dan Quisenberry
|
KCR
|
9
|
0
|
4.2
|
8
|
9
|
2.37
|
174
|
37
|
129.0
|
54
|
|
5
|
Charlie Leibrandt
|
KCR
|
7
|
0
|
6.6
|
17
|
9
|
2.69
|
153
|
0
|
237.2
|
108
|
|
6
|
Doyle Alexander
|
TOR
|
5
|
0
|
4.8
|
17
|
10
|
3.45
|
123
|
0
|
260.2
|
142
|
|
7
|
Britt Burns
|
CHW
|
2
|
0
|
4.2
|
18
|
11
|
3.96
|
109
|
0
|
227.0
|
172
|
|
7
|
Donnie Moore
|
CAL
|
2
|
0
|
3.6
|
8
|
8
|
1.92
|
217
|
31
|
103.0
|
72
|
|
7
|
Dave Stieb
|
TOR
|
2
|
0
|
6.8
|
14
|
13
|
2.48
|
171
|
0
|
265.0
|
167
|
|
10
|
Mike Moore
|
SEA
|
1
|
0
|
6.3
|
17
|
10
|
3.46
|
121
|
0
|
247.0
|
155
|
The Tango formula projects Stieb #1, Blyleven #2, and Saberhagen #3. On this one, I'm not so sure, though. Stieb did lead the league in both ERA and ERA+, and, once again, he did carry a heavy workload. But Saberhagen, even with the fewer innings, had a higher WAR than either Blyleven or Stieb, and he did have that shiny 20-game win total. Something tells me Saberhagen still would have won, but certainly could have been close.
So, on closer examination, I think it's fairer to conclude that, while it's possible Stieb could have won multiple Cy Youngs,I think it's more likely that he would have taken home 1 or 2. In any case, I think Stieb comes out as one of the more underrated pitchers of his era.
#29-Bret Saberhagen
Best category: Cy Young Points (#16 with 35), WAR/200 Innings Pitched (#18 with 4.6)
Worst category: Games Started (#97 with 371)
When I think of Saberhagen, I think of:
1) Outstanding control
2) Injuries
I think those two factors defined his career. When Saberhagen was healthy, he was elite. His 2 Cy Young awards (plus another 3rd place finish) demonstrate that he was top notch when he was on, but injuries were prevalent throughout his career. Between his multiple injuries and other factors (like strike-affected seasons), I figure he's conservatively missing 15-20% of his career, possibly more. It's not difficult to project him to a career that could have been around 200 wins and around a 70 career rWAR.
Most of the lowest Walks/9 Innings Pitched figures in history were generated by pre-1900 pitchers, for a variety of reasons. If we start counting from 1901-present, this would be the leader board (minimum 2,000 innings during the time frame)
|
Player
|
BB/9
|
IP
|
From
|
To
|
|
Cy Young
|
1.12
|
3,312.1
|
1901
|
1911
|
|
Deacon Phillippe
|
1.15
|
2,007.0
|
1901
|
1911
|
|
Babe Adams
|
1.29
|
2,995.1
|
1906
|
1926
|
|
Addie Joss
|
1.41
|
2,327.0
|
1902
|
1910
|
|
Christy Mathewson
|
1.57
|
4,755.0
|
1901
|
1916
|
|
Al Orth
|
1.60
|
2,131.2
|
1901
|
1909
|
|
Red Lucas
|
1.61
|
2,542.0
|
1923
|
1938
|
|
Brad Radke
|
1.63
|
2,451.0
|
1995
|
2006
|
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
1.65
|
2,562.2
|
1984
|
2001
|
|
Pete Alexander
|
1.65
|
5,190.0
|
1911
|
1930
|
|
Jon Lieber
|
1.73
|
2,198.0
|
1994
|
2008
|
|
Fritz Peterson
|
1.73
|
2,218.1
|
1966
|
1976
|
|
Robin Roberts
|
1.73
|
4,688.2
|
1948
|
1966
|
|
Dick Rudolph
|
1.77
|
2,049.0
|
1910
|
1927
|
|
Greg Maddux
|
1.80
|
5,008.1
|
1986
|
2008
|
|
Pete Donohue
|
1.80
|
2,112.1
|
1921
|
1932
|
|
Jesse Barnes
|
1.80
|
2,569.2
|
1915
|
1927
|
|
Juan Marichal
|
1.82
|
3,507.0
|
1960
|
1975
|
|
Carl Hubbell
|
1.82
|
3,590.1
|
1928
|
1943
|
|
Slim Sallee
|
1.83
|
2,821.2
|
1908
|
1921
|
That leader board is dominated at the top by pitchers from the first decade of the 1900's. If we restrict the scope even further, to, say, post-expansion era (1961-present), this is how it looks (showing every pitcher under 2.0, minimum 2,000 innings during the time frame). Only Brad Radke of the Twins posted a lower figure than Saberhagen:
|
Player
|
BB/9
|
IP
|
|
Brad Radke
|
1.63
|
2,451.0
|
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
1.65
|
2,562.2
|
|
Jon Lieber
|
1.73
|
2,198.0
|
|
Fritz Peterson
|
1.73
|
2,218.1
|
|
Juan Marichal
|
1.79
|
3,425.2
|
|
Greg Maddux
|
1.80
|
5,008.1
|
|
Dan Haren
|
1.86
|
2,419.2
|
|
David Wells
|
1.88
|
3,439.0
|
|
Cliff Lee
|
1.94
|
2,156.2
|
|
Roy Halladay
|
1.94
|
2,749.1
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
1.96
|
3,261.0
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
1.98
|
3,562.2
|
|
Fergie Jenkins
|
1.99
|
4,500.2
|
#28-C.C. Sabathia
Best category: Cy Young Points (16th with 35 points), All Star Games (17th with 6), Games Started (17th with 560)
Worst category: WAR/200 Innings Pitched (60th with 3.5)
Sabathia rates pretty well across the board, ranking between 16th and 60th in all 10 categories.
Back in the Chris Sale profile, I looked at tall/thin pitchers. Sabathia represents another area in the store, in the Big & Tall section. Sabathia is clearly the best "big & tall" pitcher we've seen (Randy Johnson is certainly "tall", but at 225 lbs.,doesn't qualify as "big" by my definition).
Here are the top 20 pitchers (by WAR) who were at least 6'4" (76 inches) tall and at least 240 pounds (a couple of relievers make the list):
|
Player
|
WAR
|
Ht
|
Wt
|
From
|
To
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
|
CC Sabathia
|
62.1
|
78
|
300
|
2001
|
2019
|
251
|
161
|
3.74
|
116
|
|
Jon Lester
|
45.1
|
76
|
249
|
2006
|
2021
|
193
|
112
|
3.59
|
119
|
|
Carlos Zambrano
|
38.3
|
76
|
275
|
2001
|
2012
|
132
|
91
|
3.66
|
120
|
|
Freddy Garcia
|
34.4
|
76
|
250
|
1999
|
2013
|
156
|
108
|
4.15
|
107
|
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
32.5
|
76
|
257
|
2009
|
2021
|
124
|
98
|
3.22
|
118
|
|
Stephen Strasburg
|
31.4
|
77
|
240
|
2010
|
2021
|
112
|
60
|
3.21
|
128
|
|
Lance Lynn
|
26.4
|
77
|
270
|
2011
|
2021
|
108
|
72
|
3.52
|
118
|
|
Josh Johnson
|
24.4
|
79
|
250
|
2005
|
2013
|
58
|
45
|
3.40
|
124
|
|
Aaron Harang
|
23.8
|
79
|
260
|
2002
|
2015
|
128
|
143
|
4.26
|
97
|
|
Brad Penny
|
18.8
|
76
|
270
|
2000
|
2014
|
121
|
101
|
4.29
|
99
|
|
Joaquin Benoit
|
18.0
|
76
|
250
|
2001
|
2017
|
58
|
49
|
3.83
|
116
|
|
Chris Young
|
16.9
|
82
|
255
|
2004
|
2017
|
79
|
67
|
3.95
|
103
|
|
Kenley Jansen
|
16.8
|
77
|
265
|
2010
|
2021
|
33
|
23
|
2.37
|
163
|
|
Carl Pavano
|
16.6
|
77
|
265
|
1998
|
2012
|
108
|
107
|
4.39
|
96
|
|
Gavin Floyd
|
16.4
|
76
|
245
|
2004
|
2016
|
74
|
76
|
4.37
|
101
|
|
Brett Myers
|
15.3
|
76
|
240
|
2002
|
2013
|
97
|
96
|
4.25
|
99
|
|
Noah Syndergaard
|
14.9
|
78
|
242
|
2015
|
2019
|
47
|
30
|
3.31
|
119
|
|
Ivan Nova
|
13.6
|
77
|
250
|
2010
|
2020
|
90
|
77
|
4.38
|
96
|
|
José Contreras
|
13.5
|
76
|
255
|
2003
|
2013
|
78
|
67
|
4.57
|
100
|
|
J.J. Putz
|
13.1
|
77
|
250
|
2003
|
2014
|
37
|
33
|
3.08
|
138
|
As you can see, the "big and tall" leaders are heavily weighted (no pun intended) towards the recent past. All of the pitchers on the list above have been active in the last 10 years. The highest ranking pitcher who was at least 6'4" and 240 pounds and not active in the past 10 years was Carlos Silva (9.0 WAR), who retired after the 2010 season. And you'd have to go all the way down to #48 (Jumbo Brown, 5.1 WAR) to get to a true old-timer (Brown's last season was 1941).
Just to illustrate the trend, here is a summary of all pitchers listed as 6'4" or taller and 240 lbs. or heavier, grouped by the decade that represents the midpoint of their careers. Pitchers of this size were extremely rare prior to 20 years ago. 91% of all such pitchers have career midpoints within the last 20 seasons. There's no question about it....we're developing bigger and bigger pitchers these days:
Pitchers listed at 6'4" or taller and 240 lbs. or heavier, by career midpont:
|
Decade
|
Count
|
# of Total
|
Total WAR
|
Avg WAR
|
|
2010s or later
|
140
|
64.5%
|
488.7
|
3.5
|
|
2000s
|
58
|
26.7%
|
308.7
|
5.3
|
|
1990s
|
13
|
6.0%
|
6.6
|
0.5
|
|
1980s
|
2
|
0.9%
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
|
1970s
|
1
|
0.5%
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
|
1960s
|
1
|
0.5%
|
-0.3
|
-0.3
|
|
1930s
|
1
|
0.5%
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
|
1900s
|
1
|
0.5%
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
|
Grand Total
|
217
|
100.0%
|
808.4
|
3.7
|
#27-Kevin Brown
Best category: ERA+ (17th with 127), All Star Games (17th with 6)
Worst category: Cy Young Points
At the moment Brown is the highest ranking pitcher (by pitcher WAR) who is:
a) not in the Hall of Fame
b) not currently on the BBWAA ballot
c) not still active
d) did not pitch pre-1900
OK, that's lot of conditions and exceptions, but it's one reason Brown is often considered a dark horse candidate for the Hall of Fame. Here's the current list of pitchers with WARs of 60 or higher who are not in the Hall of Fame (yet), and there's a good number of pitches in each category (note that this is based on pitcher WAR, not total WAR):
Currently on ballot
Still active or not yet eligible
Pre 1900
No longer on ballot
|
Player
|
WAR
|
From
|
To
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
138.7
|
1984
|
2007
|
354
|
184
|
3.12
|
143
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
80.5
|
1988
|
2007
|
216
|
146
|
3.46
|
127
|
|
Jim McCormick
|
76.0
|
1878
|
1887
|
265
|
214
|
2.43
|
118
|
|
Justin Verlander
|
72.3
|
2005
|
2020
|
226
|
129
|
3.33
|
129
|
|
Kevin Brown
|
68.2
|
1986
|
2005
|
211
|
144
|
3.28
|
127
|
|
Rick Reuschel
|
68.1
|
1972
|
1991
|
214
|
191
|
3.37
|
114
|
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
68.0
|
2008
|
2021
|
181
|
79
|
2.45
|
157
|
|
Zack Greinke
|
67.8
|
2004
|
2021
|
212
|
127
|
3.38
|
125
|
|
Luis Tiant
|
65.7
|
1964
|
1982
|
229
|
172
|
3.30
|
114
|
|
Bobby Mathews
|
62.3
|
1871
|
1887
|
297
|
248
|
2.86
|
104
|
|
CC Sabathia
|
62.1
|
2001
|
2019
|
251
|
161
|
3.74
|
116
|
|
Tommy John
|
62.1
|
1963
|
1989
|
288
|
231
|
3.34
|
111
|
|
David Cone
|
61.6
|
1986
|
2003
|
194
|
126
|
3.46
|
121
|
|
Max Scherzer
|
61.5
|
2008
|
2021
|
179
|
95
|
3.19
|
132
|
|
Tony Mullane
|
61.1
|
1881
|
1894
|
284
|
220
|
3.05
|
117
|
|
Tommy Bond
|
61.0
|
1874
|
1884
|
234
|
163
|
2.14
|
115
|
|
Andy Pettitte
|
60.7
|
1995
|
2013
|
256
|
153
|
3.85
|
117
|
|
Charlie Buffinton
|
60.7
|
1882
|
1892
|
233
|
152
|
2.96
|
115
|
|
Mark Buehrle
|
60.0
|
2000
|
2015
|
214
|
160
|
3.81
|
117
|
I would say the 5 in green who are not yet eligible for the ballot (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sabathia, and Greinke) are all likely to go in. I think Verlander, Kershaw, and Scherzer are all locks or near-locks, I think Greinke is a really good bet, and Sabathia has probably crossed over into the "likely to go" category, although I think he may take a few years to build enough support.
The "blue group" (Brown, Tiant, John, Cone, and Reuschel) all face their share of challenges in getting enough support. Tiant and John have been on veterans committee ballots, but haven't been able to get enough votes, and the other 3 (Brown, Cone, Reuschel) I believe suffer from a lack of "gut feel" from potential voters. That is, I don't think they're perceived as Hall-of-Fame types, at least not by nearly enough potential voters.
Brown's best career slice was 1996-2000. That 5-year span was an excellent one for him (82-41, 2.51, 164 ERA+, 4 All-Star games, Cy Young finishes of 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 6th, 2 ERA titles). Here are the 5 pitchers with the highest WARs from 1996-2000. Brown more than held his own with the elite/legendary pitchers of that time frame.
|
Player
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
W-L%
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
K/BB
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
41.8
|
90
|
35
|
.720
|
2.45
|
189
|
5.04
|
|
Kevin Brown
|
36.7
|
82
|
41
|
.667
|
2.51
|
164
|
4.17
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
35.2
|
78
|
44
|
.639
|
3.23
|
147
|
2.69
|
|
Randy Johnson
|
32.1
|
80
|
31
|
.721
|
2.74
|
168
|
4.24
|
|
Greg Maddux
|
31.3
|
90
|
42
|
.682
|
2.73
|
160
|
5.11
|
Now, I'm not implying that Brown at his best was anywhere near as good as the other 4 legends were at their best. That's not the comparison I'm making, not at all, because these were not the best 5-year slices for any of the other pitchers listed. However, these were in fact the top 5 pitchers in WAR over this particular time frame, and Brown was right up there, so he was certainly one of the elite starters during that particular stretch.
One thing that I believe works against Brown is that, after his initial stint (8 seasons) with Texas, he bounced around a lot. And, despite having the longest tenure with them, I don't think most people associate him with them, because his bigger moments came elsewhere (even though his lone 20-win season was with the Rangers). That 5 year stretch of 1996-2000 spanned 3 different franchises ('96 & '97 with the Marlins, '98 with the Padres, and '99 & '00 with the Dodgers), and when a player's career gets fragmented, I believe it tends to work against your image when it comes to the Hall of Fame.
Although the bouncing around to different teams probably resulted in a net negative image, it actually could have worked to his advantage and Brown could have easily developed a Hall of Fame narrative had it gone a little differently, as he was instrumental in 2 different franchises going to the World Series in 2 consecutive seasons ('97 Marlins, '98 Padres, with the Marlins winning the title). However, although Brown's overall postseason mark isn't that bad (5-5, 4.19), he got hammered in World Series competition (4 starts, 0-3 record, 6.04), which I'm sure worked against his narrative. In addition, he was named on the Mitchell Report, which surely didn't help either.
In short, I think Brown will continue to get some attention for his impressive WAR figure, but I do think he'll have trouble getting enough support to make the Hall.
#26-Felix Hernandez
Best category: All Star Games (17th with 6)
Worst category: W-L % (94th with .554)
I suppose Hernandez is still a free agent as of this writing, but it's been at least 5 years since he has been anything resembling the pitcher he used to be. He's 35 now, and fair to wonder if the end of the road is here.
A few years ago, I was optimistic about Hernandez's chances for the Hall of Fame. He got off to a very quick start (pitching effectively in the Majors as early as age 19), and along the way he posted 2 ERA titles, 1 Cy Young award, and 2 runner-up finishes.
Speaking of getting off to a good start....here are the pitchers with the highest career WAR figures through their age 29 season:
*=Hall of Fame
|
Rk
|
Player
|
WAR
|
From
|
To
|
Age
|
|
1
|
Walter Johnson*
|
99.0
|
1907
|
1917
|
19-29
|
|
2
|
Christy Mathewson*
|
79.2
|
1901
|
1910
|
20-29
|
|
3
|
Roger Clemens
|
62.6
|
1984
|
1992
|
21-29
|
|
4
|
Bert Blyleven*
|
59.3
|
1970
|
1980
|
19-29
|
|
5
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
58.8
|
2008
|
2017
|
20-29
|
|
6
|
Tom Seaver*
|
58.0
|
1967
|
1974
|
22-29
|
|
7
|
Pedro Martinez*
|
57.3
|
1992
|
2001
|
20-29
|
|
8
|
Hal Newhouser*
|
56.6
|
1939
|
1950
|
18-29
|
|
9
|
Bob Feller*
|
56.2
|
1936
|
1948
|
17-29
|
|
10
|
Robin Roberts*
|
55.8
|
1948
|
1956
|
21-29
|
|
11
|
Don Drysdale*
|
52.6
|
1956
|
1966
|
19-29
|
|
12
|
Pete Alexander*
|
51.5
|
1911
|
1916
|
24-29
|
|
13
|
Wes Ferrell
|
50.7
|
1927
|
1937
|
19-29
|
|
14
|
Greg Maddux*
|
50.4
|
1986
|
1995
|
20-29
|
|
15
|
Felix Hernandez
|
49.9
|
2005
|
2015
|
19-29
|
|
16
|
Rube Waddell*
|
46.1
|
1901
|
1906
|
24-29
|
|
17
|
Kevin Appier
|
45.6
|
1989
|
1997
|
21-29
|
|
18
|
Fergie Jenkins*
|
45.3
|
1965
|
1972
|
22-29
|
|
19
|
Addie Joss*
|
45.3
|
1902
|
1909
|
22-29
|
|
20
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
44.8
|
1984
|
1993
|
20-29
|
It's a pretty strong list, with 14 of the 20 (70%) in the Hall of Fame at this point. Kershaw is not yet eligible, and Clemens is out for other reasons besides quality, so basically it's about an 80% proposition of Hall of Fame quality among this group. Unfortunately, Hernandez essentially stalled at this point, as injuries took control of his fate.
#25-Luis Tiant
Best category: WAR (23rd with 66.1), WAR7 (23rd with 44.2), WAA (25th with 34.5)
Worst category: K/BB ratio (116th with 2.19)
What a fun career. In fact, let's use an amusement park analogy - Tiant was a roller coaster ride. Or maybe he was like one of those rides that whips you sharply from one side to another.
Tiant had 2 distinct phases - in the 1960's with the Indians, he was a pretty good strikeout pitcher, averaging just under 8 per 9 innings. Here are the top strikeout artists of that decade (minimum 1,000 innings):
|
Player
|
SO/9
|
IP
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
9.51
|
1,807.2
|
|
Sam McDowell
|
9.41
|
1,590.0
|
|
Bob Veale
|
7.98
|
1,611.1
|
|
Jim Maloney
|
7.92
|
1,802.0
|
|
Mickey Lolich
|
7.87
|
1,528.1
|
|
Luis Tiant
|
7.81
|
1,200.0
|
|
Bob Gibson
|
7.62
|
2,447.0
|
|
Fergie Jenkins
|
7.56
|
1,105.1
|
|
Al Downing
|
7.49
|
1,235.1
|
|
Sonny Siebert
|
7.12
|
1,154.1
|
Tiant had a great year in 1968, even allowing for the fact that it was the "Year of the Pitcher". Denny McLain got the attention with his 31 wins, but Tiant won the ERA title with a microscopic 1.60 mark.
From there, you probably are familiar with Tiant's story of the back half of his career. He was traded to the Twins with Stan Williams for 4 players (that included Dean Chance and a young Graig Nettles). He got off to a good start with the Twins, but got injured and struggled after that. In 1971 he was released by the Twins and, later, by the Braves. The Red Sox eventually picked him up, but he posted a 1-7 record for them in '71.
1972 was the turning point, however, as the roller coaster began its next ascent. Here's Tiant's performance by month during that season, and note how his usage changed as the season unfolded:
|
Split
|
G
|
GS
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
SHO
|
CG
|
GF
|
|
April/March
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
2.45
|
7.1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
May
|
7
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
5.25
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
June
|
10
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1.86
|
19.1
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
July
|
9
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
3.42
|
26.1
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
|
August
|
7
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
0.95
|
47.1
|
3
|
5
|
1
|
|
Sept/Oct
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
2
|
1.35
|
66.2
|
3
|
6
|
0
|
Tiant began the seasons primarily out of the bullpen, making occasional starts. Over the last 2 months of the season, however, Tiant mostly stayed in the rotation, and was simply amazing as he hurled 6 shutouts (including 4 in a row) over those 13 starts, and had a streak of consecutive scoreless innings that reached 40. For the season, Tiant ended up going 15-6, 1.91, taking home his second ERA title (both with figures below 2.00).
After that, of course, the rest became the stuff of Red Sox legend. Tiant averaged 20 wins over the next 4 seasons, and got a lot of attention for his outstanding pitching during the 1975 postseason run that ended in that epic World Series encounter with the Reds.
Will Tiant ever make the Hall of Fame? I think he has a decent shot. He unfortunately had one of the more precipitous drops I ever recall, though (it might even be the single largest decreases ever, I'm not sure). When Tiant debuted on the ballot in 1988, he got just under 31% of the vote, a solid debut. He never reached that level again, and in fact dropped to 10.5% in 1989. A big part of that, no doubt, was the extremely strong rookie class of that ballot (e). Tiant got lost in the crowd, and dropped from 8th place in 1988 to 16th in 1989, and never really recovered. He never got back in the top 10 in all of his remaining years on the ballot, and never got back to even 20% of the vote.
Will he ever find a favorable committee and get in? I hope he does. He's a worthy candidate.
#24-David Cone
Best category: Cy Young Points (20th with 30 points), WAA (34th with 34.2)
Worst category: K/BB Ratio (90th with 2.35)
Cone scores pretty well across the board.....In 8 of the 10 categories he ranks between 20th and 35th. He doesn't really have an overwhelming strength or an underwhelming weakness.
One of the things I like about doing these reviews and profiles is that it forces me to take a closer look at the players' careers. For example, I never noticed previously that David Cone was part of 5 World Series championship teams - Toronto '92, and the Yankees in '96, '98,' 99, and 2000. Did you know that? I have to confess that I didn't.
So, I started to think about why I didn't know that. I suspect part of that is that I tend to think of so many others from those championship teams before I think of Cone. On the '92 Blue Jays, Cone pitched most of the season for the Mets before being traded to Toronto in late August. He pitched well for the Blue Jays down the stretch, but was just so-so (2 good starts, 2 mediocre ones) in the postseason. But, let's face it, when you think of that particular Blue Jays team, you probably think of Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter, Jack Morris, Dave Winfield, John Olerud, Devon White, Juan Guzman, Tom Henke, and Duane Ward before you think of Cone. At least I do. He was there, but was more of a hired gun. He was with the team for a couple of months, then left as a free agent after the '92 season.
With the Yankees? Well, in '96 he missed most of the season, but did have some good postseason moments. He was a significant part of the '98 and '99 champion teams, but has a horrible year in 2000. So, I have to say he really doesn't come to mind when I think of those Yankees teams, at least not right off the bat. I suspect the first 5 most people tend to think of first would be the home-grown quintet of Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. After them, I suspect many folks thing next of Paul O'Neill, Orlando Hernandez, and Tino Martinez. Hell, you might even think of Scott Brosius before you think of Cone. Or maybe not....but I tend to think of the others first.
So, I think Cone lacks a real strong identity. If you sort his career by seasonal WAR, his top 7 efforts were spread among 4 different teams (Yankees, Mets, Royals, and Blue Jays). His Cy Young season was with the Royals in 1994, which was a strike year, so the impact wasn't as great. He had a terrific year in 1988 with the Mets (20-3, 2.22), but he was aced out of the ERA title by Joe Magrane (2.18) who barely pitched enough innings to qualify for the title, and that was also Orel Hershiser's legendary year, so Cone ended up third (behind Hershiser and Danny Jackson of the Reds) in the Cy Young Voting. He had two separate stints with Royals, two with the Mets, and two with the Blue Jays. He ended up just shy of 200 wins. His raw ERA (3.46) doesn't really impress, although his ERA+ of 121 and career rWAR of 62.6 are both very good, which of course, no one would have really been aware of at the time.
He lacked a defining narrative or quality, and his career was extremely fragmented. When he debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2009, he only received 3.9% of the vote and fell off the ballot. I suspect he'll be hard pressed to get enough support to get inducted via a veterans committee.
#23-Don Sutton
Best category: Games Started (2nd with 756)
Worst category: WAR/200 Innings Pitched (145th with 2.53), ERA+ (101st with 108)
Out of all of the pitchers in my top 50, Sutton has the widest disparity in where he ranks in career WAR vs. WAR per 200 innings in my 226-pitcher data set. Sutton ranks 22nd in WAR, but only 145th in WAR per 200 innings.
Among non-active pitchers in my data set, here are the 5 with the largest gaps between those 2 rankings:
|
Name
|
Rank Career WAR
|
Rank WAR per 200 Innings
|
Difference
|
|
Don Sutton
|
22
|
145
|
123
|
|
Tommy John
|
28
|
139
|
111
|
|
Jack Morris
|
63
|
167
|
104
|
|
Catfish Hunter
|
68
|
155
|
87
|
|
Vida Blue
|
58
|
128
|
70
|
Sutton's ERA+ of 108 is also one of the lowest among my top 50. Only Catfish Hunter (104) and Jack Morris (105) were lower (Vida Blue is tied with Sutton)
Some other comparisons that come to mind in assessing Sutton's career.....
Sutton vs. Whitaker
What? Lou Whitaker? Let me work my way through it.....
Sutton is a clear Hall of Famer, but I have to say I don't consider him a great pitcher in the sense of how I think of that term. There is a distinct difference in my mind between being really good for a long time vs. being great but for a more condensed period of time. It's not a bad thing to be good for a very long time. It's the same characterization I think of when assessing Lou Whitaker. In my mind, Sutton is the Lou Whitaker of pitchers.
To my way of looking at things, Sutton had maybe 3 what I would term "excellent" seasons - 1972, 1973, and 1980. In those 3 seasons he posted an ERA+ of 130 or higher as well as generating rWARs greater than 5.0. But he also had a whole bunch of really good ones, and, perhaps more important in something like this, rarely had bad ones.
Here's an interesting list - pitchers (since 1901) who had the greatest number of seasons with WAR greater than or equal to 1.0 but less than 5.0. A general way to classify these seasons would be that they represent positive contributions, but they are seasons that typically are less than an All-Star type of level:
|
Name
|
Number of Seasons Between 1.0 and 5.0 WAR
|
|
Don Sutton
|
19
|
|
Tommy John
|
17
|
|
Nolan Ryan
|
16
|
|
Andy Pettitte
|
15
|
|
David Wells
|
14
|
|
Tom Glavine
|
14
|
|
Tim Wakefield
|
13
|
|
Dennis Martinez
|
13
|
|
Frank Tanana
|
13
|
|
Curt Simmons
|
13
|
|
Red Ruffing
|
13
|
|
Tom Zachary
|
13
|
|
Sad Sam Jones
|
13
|
|
Eppa Rixey
|
13
|
|
Red Ames
|
13
|
As another note, a few of these pitchers accomplished something that Sutton wasn't ever able to achieve. Ryan, Pettitte, Glavine, and Tanana all had at least one season where they eclipsed 7.0. The others never did, including Sutton, although he did eclipse 6.0 three times.
One thing you may notice about that list is that most of the truly elite, legendary pitchers over the history of baseball aren't on the list. Johnson (Walter and Randy), Mathewson, Maddux, Clemens, Seaver, Pedro, Spahn, Young, Alexander, Gibson......those pitchers tended to have a lot fewer seasons that fell into this range. Even pitchers like Blyleven, Perry, and Niekro, who all pitched, didn't end up on this list. For the most part, those great pitchers tended to have more seasons above the 5.0 threshold (and sometimes below the 1.0 floor). Sutton virtually lived in that middle lane.
Another comparison:
Sutton vs. Catfish
To me, Sutton is essentially cut from the same cloth as the #38 pitcher in my rankings, Catfish Hunter. The same basic model, but with 50% more bulk (which is a large part of why Sutton ranks higher).
Some bio/team similarities:
· Sutton was born on April 2, 1945. Hunter was born April 8, 1946.
· Sutton is listed as 6'1", 185 lbs., while Hunter is listed as 6'0", 190 lbs.
· Sutton began his MLB career in 1966. Hunter debuted 1 year earlier.
· Sutton and Hunter both pitched primarily for successful California teams in the 1970's, and both enjoyed benefits of favorable home parks.
One difference is that, while both pitched on successful teams, Hunter's teams enjoyed more ultimate success. Sutton's team made it to 5 World Series (4 with the Dodgers, 1 with the Brewers), but Sutton's team lost each time. Hunter made it to 6 World Series (3 A's, 3 Yankees), ending up on the winning side 5 times.
Here are some selected stats. The "ratio" row is the ratio of Sutton's figure vs. Hunter's:
|
Name
|
Yrs
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
GS
|
SO
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
WAR200
|
|
Sutton
|
23
|
5,282
|
324
|
256
|
3.26
|
108
|
756
|
3,574
|
66.7
|
33.9
|
2.53
|
|
Hunter
|
15
|
3,449
|
224
|
166
|
3.26
|
104
|
476
|
2,012
|
40.9
|
34.9
|
2.37
|
|
Ratio
|
1.53
|
1.53
|
1.45
|
1.54
|
1.00
|
1.04
|
1.59
|
1.78
|
1.63
|
0.97
|
1.06
|
In the "bulk" or "counting" categories, Sutton's figures are basically 50% to 80% higher than Hunter's. However, the rate categories (ERA, ERA+, WAR per 200 innings) are essentially even, as are their 7-year peak WARs.
So, in my view, Sutton and Hunter were similarly effective, but Sutton has another 50-60% bulk tacked on, and he deserves to rate higher on that basis.
Sutton and Hunter both had a huge home/road split over their careers. Sutton came in at 2.81 ERA at home (including 2.66 at Dodger Stadium) and 3.77 on the road. Many pitchers have a favorable home record, but Sutton's gap is quite large.
I did a data pull of pitchers in my top 50 (spoiler alert - some of the names below have not been revealed prior to this) and compared home & road ERA's. The average home vs. road ERA advantage was about 0.36. The ones below had the largest favorable differences. Again, this does not mean that these men were not excellent hurlers. They were. But their overall career records are at least in part attributable to how much better they did at home.
|
Pitcher
|
Away
|
Home
|
Difference
|
|
Catfish Hunter
|
3.92
|
2.70
|
(1.22)
|
|
Vida Blue
|
3.91
|
2.73
|
(1.18)
|
|
Kevin Brown
|
3.86
|
2.74
|
(1.12)
|
|
Chuck Finley
|
4.37
|
3.37
|
(1.00)
|
|
Nolan Ryan
|
3.73
|
2.77
|
(0.96)
|
|
Don Sutton
|
3.77
|
2.81
|
(0.96)
|
|
Ron Guidry
|
3.72
|
2.90
|
(0.82)
|
|
Roy Oswalt
|
3.69
|
3.04
|
(0.65)
|
|
Orel Hershiser
|
3.81
|
3.17
|
(0.64)
|
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
2.76
|
2.15
|
(0.61)
|
|
Tim Hudson
|
3.80
|
3.22
|
(0.58)
|
|
Dwight Gooden
|
3.81
|
3.24
|
(0.57)
|
|
Jim Palmer
|
3.13
|
2.59
|
(0.54)
|
|
Zack Greinke
|
3.63
|
3.13
|
(0.50)
|
So, here's basically my opinion of Sutton in a nutshell: He was reliable. He was consistent. He was durable. He generally stayed healthy and avoided injuries virtually his entire career. There's an awful lot to be said for that, and, again, to me he's an easy Hall of Famer. However, I don't think of him as a great pitcher, and I don't feel that's a contradiction. You can be a Hall of Famer without being great. I think of him as being very good for a very long time, and that's a positive thing. But there's a difference in my book.
#22-Johan Santana
Best category: WAR/200 Innings Pitched (6th with 5.11), ERA+ (7th with 136)
Worst category: Games Started (173rd with 284)
Santana is kind of the anti-Sutton, isn't he? The two are different in almost every conceivable way.
Below are tables that show how the 2 pitchers compare in the categories that I used in developing these rankings. The first table represents the actual data points, while the second one displays how the 2 pitchers rank among the 226 pitchers in the data set in each of those categories.
Data:
|
Name
|
WAR
|
WAR / 200 IP
|
WAR7
|
CY Young Points
|
All Star
|
Games Started
|
ERA+
|
W-L%
|
K/BB
|
WAA
|
|
Sutton
|
66.7
|
2.53
|
33.9
|
25
|
4
|
756
|
108
|
.559
|
2.66
|
21.4
|
|
Santana
|
51.7
|
5.11
|
45.0
|
45
|
4
|
284
|
136
|
.641
|
3.51
|
33.4
|
Rankings:
|
Name
|
Rank WAR
|
Rank WAR / 200 IP
|
Rank WAR7
|
Rank CY Young Points
|
Rank All Star
|
Rank Games Started
|
Rank ERA+
|
Rank W-L %
|
Rank K/BB
|
Rank WAA
|
|
Sutton
|
22
|
145
|
65
|
31
|
36
|
2
|
101
|
88
|
60
|
53
|
|
Santana
|
42
|
6
|
20
|
13
|
36
|
173
|
7
|
11
|
26
|
26
|
As you would expect, Sutton has clear advantages over Santana in things like total career WAR and (especially) games started. Basically, Santana has an advantage in everything else (except All Star Games, where they tied).
I'm sure many of you would rank Sutton ahead of Santana in your own personal rankings, and I can understand that. Sutton is one of the most durable and prolific pitchers ever. He had more than 2 and a half times as many starts as Santana did, and more than double the number of pitcher wins. Sutton's in the Hall of Fame, and he belongs. Santana isn't, and suspect he won't ever be, and there are valid reasons for that as well. But according to the way I view things, I think Santana was a better pitcher.
I doubt that Santana will ever make the Hall of Fame. His career is too short. Many folks compare his brief career to Koufax's, but I think a little better comp is Dizzy Dean. Their records have a lot of similarity. If Cy Young awards were given in Dean's era, he (like Santana) probably would have won 2 of them - 1934, and 1935 (Hubbell probably would have won in '36).
Would Santana be the best pitcher of the first decade of the 2000's (2000-2009)? Probably not quite, but he's among the top contenders.
Here's some data from some top candidates (I restricted it to pitchers with decade WARs of 40 or higher):
|
Player
|
WAR
|
GS
|
W
|
L
|
W-L%
|
IP
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
K/BB
|
|
Randy Johnson
|
51.3
|
281
|
143
|
78
|
.647
|
1,885.1
|
3.34
|
137
|
4.5
|
|
Johan Santana
|
46.3
|
234
|
122
|
60
|
.670
|
1,709.2
|
3.12
|
143
|
3.7
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
46.2
|
221
|
117
|
63
|
.650
|
1,569.1
|
3.54
|
132
|
6.0
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
45.6
|
227
|
112
|
50
|
.691
|
1,468.0
|
3.01
|
152
|
4.6
|
|
Roy Halladay
|
45.4
|
267
|
139
|
69
|
.668
|
1,883.1
|
3.40
|
134
|
3.7
|
|
Roy Oswalt
|
43.1
|
271
|
137
|
70
|
.662
|
1,803.1
|
3.23
|
134
|
3.6
|
|
Javier Vazquez
|
42.4
|
327
|
128
|
116
|
.525
|
2,163.0
|
3.98
|
113
|
3.8
|
|
Mark Buehrle
|
41.3
|
301
|
135
|
97
|
.582
|
2,061.0
|
3.80
|
122
|
2.5
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
40.8
|
282
|
134
|
87
|
.606
|
1,790.2
|
3.87
|
116
|
4.1
|
|
Tim Hudson
|
40.2
|
289
|
137
|
76
|
.643
|
1,923.1
|
3.50
|
126
|
2.2
|
In terms of Cy Young awards, Johnson had 3 in the decade, followed by Santana with 2. Tim Lincecum also had 2, but only had 3 years total in the decade, and Roger Clemens also had 2, but he didn't make the top 10 in WAR. I'd have to go Big Unit #1 for the decade, then Pedro, then probably a toss up among Santana, Halladay, and Schilling for #3, with Oswalt a possibility there as well.
As mentioned, Santana won 2 Cy Youngs (2004 and 2006), and he was the clear choice both times, winning both awards unanimously. And, he probably deserved to win in 2005 as well. Let's revisit that one in a little more detail. Here were the top finishers in the 2005 voting:
|
Finish
|
Name
|
Tm
|
Vote Pts
|
1st Place
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
SV
|
SO
|
ERA+
|
|
1
|
Bartolo Colon
|
LAA
|
118
|
17
|
4.0
|
21
|
8
|
3.48
|
222.2
|
0
|
157
|
122
|
|
2
|
Mariano Rivera
|
NYY
|
68
|
8
|
4.0
|
7
|
4
|
1.38
|
78.1
|
43
|
80
|
308
|
|
3
|
Johan Santana
|
MIN
|
51
|
3
|
7.2
|
16
|
7
|
2.87
|
231.2
|
0
|
238
|
155
|
|
4
|
Cliff Lee
|
CLE
|
8
|
0
|
2.5
|
18
|
5
|
3.79
|
202.0
|
0
|
143
|
111
|
|
5
|
Mark Buehrle
|
CHW
|
5
|
0
|
4.8
|
16
|
8
|
3.12
|
236.2
|
0
|
149
|
144
|
|
6
|
Jon Garland
|
CHW
|
1
|
0
|
4.6
|
18
|
10
|
3.50
|
221.0
|
0
|
115
|
128
|
|
6
|
Kevin Millwood
|
CLE
|
1
|
0
|
4.0
|
9
|
11
|
2.86
|
192.0
|
0
|
146
|
147
|
Colon undoubtedly won the award in large part because pitcher wins were still highly valued. Colon won 21 games, while Lee and Garland were the next highest with 18. But if you look across the breadth of several categories, it's clear to me that Santana was the much better pitcher, and he probably should have won the award. Santanta outperformed Colon by a large margin in ERA, ERA+, WAR, innings pitched, and strikeouts. If we used the Tango formula previously cited in the Dave Stieb and Orel Hershiser profiles, Santana would have been a slam dunk winner, with Buehrle second and Colon third.
So, what would have happened if Santana were a 3-time Cy Young winner, and, especially 3 in-a-row? Would that have been enough to get him into the Hall? I would have loved to have seen that play out.
Personally, I would love to see Santana get in to the Hall, despite the brevity of his career. He's missing the bulk numbers, to be sure, but he's got a lot of the sizzle, and I think he was clearly the best pitcher in the league 3 years running, and one of the best of the decade of the 2000's. I'd vote for him.
#21-Zack Greinke
Best category: WAR/200 Innings Pitched (8th with 4.90), WAA (11th with 46.4)
Worst category: Games Started (43rd with 460)
Like Cone, one of Greinke's strengths in this methodology is his absence of weaknesses. His lowest rank is 43rd in games started, and he's still moving up in that category. By the end of the year, Greinke will probably be top 30 in my dataset in games started.
I was probably a little slow to come around to the concept of Greinke as a Hall of Famer. About 5 years ago (mid-2016), I wrote an article called "Are We Watching any Hall of Fame Hurlers", and gave the opinion that I thought Greinke had a decent case, but that I guessed that he might not appeal to enough voters. Greinke had bounced around a fair amount during his career, and I thought that he lacked that "Hall of Fame feel".
A year later, I revisited the topic and opined that Greinke would get in, but that it might take him several tries. Now, I think he's entering more into the "looking really likely" category. Even with the lost season of 2020, Greinke has tacked on over 50 wins since my first article, and his ERA+ over that span has been around 140. He now has 210 wins and counting. His career rWAR at the time of my first article was in the mid-50's. Now he's at 72.5 and counting, and I think that WAR will only continue to become more important to voters over the coming years when it comes to Hall of Fame assessments. He's 37 years old, but still pitching well.
I don't know if he's elevated himself to first-ballot status yet, but I think he's looking stronger and stronger as a candidate. I think he'll go in fairly quickly.
Next Article
I'll post profiles for starting pitchers #11-20 as soon as I complete them, hopefully in the next couple of weeks.
Thanks for reading.
Dan