Tris Speaker has held the career record for doubles for 95 years, or since 1925.  Before Speaker the career record for doubles was 657, by Nap Lajoie.  At the end of the 1920 season Ty Cobb was ahead of Tris Speaker, 460 to 445.  Cobb was a year and a half older than Speaker.   In 1921 Speaker hit 52 doubles, moving into a tie with Ty Cobb for fifth on the all-time list, behind Lajoie, Wagner, Anson and Delahanty.  Speaker hit 48 doubles in 1922, moving into third place (as Cobb moved into fourth).   He added 59 two-baggers in 1923 and 36 in 1924, putting him in a tie with Honus Wagner for second, and claimed the record in 1925.  Ty Cobb also passed Lajoie in 1926, putting Speaker in first all time, Cobb in second.  They stayed One and Two until Rose passed Cobb in the 1980s. 

            Some time ago—ten years ago, maybe 12—I speculated that doubles were now common enough that within 20 years or so, some player might break this ancient record.   I had a question in "Hey, Bill" two or three months ago as to whether I still thought this was true; I’m sorry, I don’t remember who asked the question.  Anyway, I said that before I could study that I would have to update the data file that I use to study questions of that nature, which I would do after the season ended.  

            I am working on updating that file, not done with that yet, but I have now reached the point of that process at which I can address this issue. 

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

In the 2021 Bill James Handbook, I reviewed the process by which I estimate each player’s chance of getting 3,000 career hits and reaching similar career goals—the method that I used to call The Favorite Toy, although the people who run the data now call it something else.   I reached the conclusion that, with regard to 3,000 hits, the method works fantastically well—so well that you absolutely could not improve upon it, given the inherent limitations of the data.   If that system says that a player has a 57% chance to get 3,000 career hits, you’ll lose money betting 56 or 58.

But the process does not work as well for Home Runs; it slightly over-estimates a player’s chance to hit 750 or more home runs.  Studying the issue a little more, I concluded that the reason for this was that the ratio of Home Runs to Hits decreases as a player ages—thus, a system that makes good guesses about hits runs a little bit high with respect to Home Runs.  I adjusted the Home Run part of the process to reflect this. 

But what about doubles?  Do I also need to make a parallel change with respect to doubles?

The short answer is "No, I don’t."  A player’s ratio of doubles to hits also declines, eventually, but on an entirely different scale.  A player will have as many doubles as a percentage of hits after age 36 as he does up to age 36; his doubles as a percentage of hits don’t decline until he is 38, on average.   But he will hit 7% fewer home runs (as a percentage of hits) after age 36, because his home runs as a percentage of hits start declining at age 33.   I’ll report those studies at the end of the article.   For now, I want to stick to the issue of the record being broken. 

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

OK, so each player has an "Established Doubles Level" after every season.  That’s step one of The Favorite Toy, or whatever they call it now.   The formula for the Established Doubles Level after an ordinary season is:

1 times the number of doubles hit 2 years ago,

Plus 2 times the number of doubles hit last year,

Plus 3 times the number of doubles hit this year,

All divided by six. 

 

For the strike-shortened 1981 and 1994 seasons, we modify the method.   Here again, post-2020, we have to modify the method, which we do by dividing the total not by six, but by 4.11.   That puts the doubles/games ratio back in the right ratio.  The highest established doubles level in history was by Joe Medwick post-1937.   Medwick hit 46 doubles in 1935, 64 in 1936, and 56 in 1937 (when he also won the Triple Crown), giving him an established doubles level of 57.0.   The highest level of the last 80 years was 53.1, by Todd Helton after the 2001 season; he had hit 39-59-54 over a three-season span. 

These are the highest established doubles levels in the major leagues each year since 1931:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Earl	Webb	Red Sox	1931	44.7
Babe	Herman	Dodgers	1931	44.5
Heinie	Manush	Senators	1931	44.3
Paul	Waner	Pirates	1932	48.0
Chuck	Klein	Phillies	1932	46.2
Dick	Bartell	Phillies	1932	43.7
Paul	Waner	Pirates	1933	45.5
Chuck	Klein	Phillies	1933	44.3
Joe	Cronin	Senators	1933	44.2
Charlie	Gehringer	Tigers	1934	46.3
Earl	Averill	Indians	1934	43.2
Hank	Greenberg	Tigers	1934	42.5
Hank	Greenberg	Tigers	1935	49.5
Joe	Medwick	Cardinals	1935	43.0
Billy	Herman	Cubs	1935	41.3
Joe	Medwick	Cardinals	1936	54.0
Billy	Herman	Cubs	1936	51.0
Charlie	Gehringer	Tigers	1936	49.0
Joe	Medwick	Cardinals	1937	57.0
Billy	Herman	Cubs	1937	46.0
Charlie	Gehringer	Tigers	1937	45.3
Joe	Medwick	Cardinals	1938	52.8
Joe	Cronin	Red Sox	1938	42.5
Beau	Bell	Browns	1938	41.2
Joe	Medwick	Cardinals	1939	49.0
Red	Rolfe	Yankees	1939	40.7
Joe	Cronin	Red Sox	1939	40.2

 

 

Let me break in here with a little bit of explanation.   History shows that if the ratio between the league-leading numbers in an area and the all-time record is less than 15-1, then that record is doomed.  It WILL be broken.   In the mid-1980s, for instance, the all-time record for stolen bases was 938—but the leading base stealers were stealing 100 bases a year.  That’s a ratio of 9 to 1.   There is no way in hell that that record could stand, with a 9 to 1 ratio, because the best players in every generation sustain their ability for (the equivalent of) 17 or 18 league-leading seasons.   If the league leader in hits each year is about 200, then somebody in that generation will get 3400, 3500 hits.  A ratio less than 15 to 1 basically indicates a record that WILL be broken, if those levels persist over time. 

If the ratio is in the range of 15-1 up to about 18-1, then the record is relatively vulnerable.   If the ratio is 18-1 to 21-1, it is relatively safe.   If the ratio is higher than 21-1, then the record is absolutely safe.  The record cannot be broken as long as the league-leading numbers stay in that range, although there is a counter-example or two in history.  

For doubles, the record is 792 or 793, depending on who you believe; let’s say it is 792.   Divide that by 15; you get 52.8.  That means that, if the league-leading numbers are 53 or higher, as a regular thing, somebody will break the record.    Divide by 18, it is 44.  If the league-leading numbers of doubles are typically 44 to 53, the record is relatively vulnerable.   If the league-leading numbers of doubles are 38 to 44, the record is relatively safe.   And if the league-leading numbers are 38 or less, then the record is absolutely safe. 

We can see then that in the mid-1930s, when players like Medwick, Greenberg, Gehringer and Billy Herman were hitting 57 to 62 doubles in a good year, Speaker’s record was quite vulnerable.  If those levels had been sustained over time, somebody would have broken the record. 

Medwick faded quickly, however, and after 1940 the highest Established Doubles Levels dropped sharply:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Hank	Greenberg	Tigers	1940	42.8
Frank	McCormick	Reds	1940	42.3
George	McQuinn	Browns	1940	38.8
Lou	Boudreau	Indians	1941	40.3
Ted	Williams	Red Sox	1941	38.2
Johnny	Mize	Cardinals	1941	37.2
Dom	DiMaggio	Red Sox	1942	35.7
Harlond	Clift	Browns	1942	35.3
Stan	Hack	Cubs	1942	35.3
Billy	Herman	Dodgers	1943	36.8
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1943	35.3
Joe	Medwick	Dodgers/Giants	1943	32.8
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1944	46.8
Ken	Keltner	Indians	1944	36.5
Lou	Boudreau	Indians	1944	36.2
Tommy	Holmes	Braves	1945	43.0
Dixie	Walker	Dodgers	1945	38.7
Augie	Galan	Dodgers	1945	36.7
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1946	50.0
Mickey	Vernon	Senators	1946	40.8
Tommy	Holmes	Braves	1946	40.2
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1947	40.2
Ted	Williams	Red Sox	1947	38.0
Lou	Boudreau	Indians	1947	36.5
Ted	Williams	Red Sox	1948	41.5
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1948	41.3
Lou	Boudreau	Indians	1948	37.0
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1949	40.8
Ted	Williams	Red Sox	1949	40.8
Del	Ennis	Phillies	1949	37.0

 

In the Medwick era the highest Established Doubles Levels were in the 50s.  By 1942 the highest Established Doubles Level on the chart was 35.7, by Joe DiMaggio’s little brother.   That made Speaker’s record safe—and the fact that most of the best hitters of that era lost several prime seasons to World War II made it extra-safe.  The only player from that era who could conceivably have threatened Speaker’s record was Musial.    Musial continued to be the leading doubles hitter in the majors through most of the 1950s, but with numbers dropping off enough that he would fall about 10% short of matching Speaker:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
George	Kell	Tigers	1950	44.7
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1950	41.8
Jackie	Robinson	Dodgers	1950	38.5
George	Kell	Tigers	1951	43.0
Al	Dark	Giants	1951	36.3
Jackie	Robinson	Dodgers	1951	35.8
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1952	37.8
Red	Schoendienst	Cardinals	1952	37.8
Ferris	Fain	Athletics	1952	35.7
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1953	45.5
Mickey	Vernon	Senators	1953	37.5
Al	Dark	Giants	1953	37.0
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1954	45.2
Red	Schoendienst	Cardinals	1954	37.3
Duke	Snider	Dodgers	1954	36.3
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1955	37.5
Duke	Snider	Dodgers	1955	36.3
Harvey	Kuenn	Tigers	1955	33.8
Duke	Snider	Dodgers	1956	34.3
Hank	Aaron	Braves	1956	33.8
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1956	33.3
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1957	35.0
Minnie	Minoso	White Sox	1957	32.0
Harvey	Kuenn	Tigers	1957	32.0
			1957
Stan	Musial	Cardinals	1958	35.7
Harvey	Kuenn	Tigers	1958	34.8
Al	Kaline	Tigers	1958	32.0
Harvey	Kuenn	Tigers	1959	39.0
Hank	Aaron	Braves	1959	38.8
Willie	Mays	Giants	1959	36.8

 

You will note that there are a relatively few parks which account for most of the leaders—Tiger Stadium in Detroit, Sportsman’s Park in St. Louis, Fenway Park in Boston.  Hitting doubles is park-sensitive.  Anyway, in this era the numbers of doubles being hit by the leading doublers was so low that Speaker’s record was absolutely or near-absolutely untouchable.  Putting Ted Williams in uniform again helped keep it that way.   The 1960s:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Orlando	Cepeda	Giants	1960	36.0
Vada	Pinson	Reds	1960	35.3
Willie	Mays	Giants	1960	34.3
Vada	Pinson	Reds	1961	37.2
Hank	Aaron	Braves	1961	33.8
Al	Kaline	Tigers	1961	33.3
Frank	Robinson	Reds	1962	41.7
Willie	Mays	Giants	1962	33.5
Vada	Pinson	Reds	1962	33.0
Carl	Yastrzemski	Red Sox	1963	39.5
Dick	Groat	Cardinals	1963	37.0
Vada	Pinson	Reds	1963	34.5
Dick	Groat	Cardinals	1964	37.5
Billy	Williams	Cubs	1964	35.2
Carl	Yastrzemski	Red Sox	1964	35.0
Carl	Yastrzemski	Red Sox	1965	38.8
Zoilo	Versalles	Twins	1965	38.7
Billy	Williams	Cubs	1965	38.5
Carl	Yastrzemski	Red Sox	1966	39.3
Tony	Oliva	Twins	1966	36.5
Frank	Robinson	Orioles	1966	34.3
Carl	Yastrzemski	Red Sox	1967	36.0
Rusty	Staub	Astros	1967	34.7
Pete	Rose	Reds	1967	34.5
Pete	Rose	Reds	1968	38.0
Rusty	Staub	Astros	1968	37.8
Lou	Brock	Cardinals	1968	37.7
Lou	Brock	Cardinals	1969	37.2
Pete	Rose	Reds	1969	35.8
Matty	Alou	Pirates	1969	33.3

 

Frank Robinson in 1962 hit 51 doubles, making him the only player from the 1960s to get his established doubles level over 40.    After 1972, with artificial turf parks, the numbers started to creep up:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Pete	Rose	Reds	1970	36.5
Tony	Oliva	Twins	1970	35.0
Wes	Parker	Dodgers	1970	34.8
Lou	Brock	Cardinals	1971	33.7
Tony	Oliva	Twins	1971	33.5
Bobby	Bonds	Giants	1971	32.2
Cesar	Cedeno	Astros	1972	36.3
Billy	Williams	Cubs	1972	31.7
Bobby	Bonds	Giants	1972	31.2
Cesar	Cedeno	Astros	1973	37.2
Ted	Simmons	Cardinals	1973	35.3
Willie	Stargell	Pirates	1973	35.2
Pete	Rose	Reds	1974	39.7
Willie	Stargell	Pirates	1974	37.5
Al	Oliver	Pirates	1974	36.2
Pete	Rose	Reds	1975	44.5
Al	Oliver	Pirates	1975	38.5
Willie	Stargell	Pirates	1975	35.5
Pete	Rose	Reds	1976	44.2
Steve	Garvey	Dodgers	1976	36.5
Hal	McRae	Royals	1976	35.7
Hal	McRae	Royals	1977	44.7
Pete	Rose	Reds	1977	40.8
Dave	Parker	Pirates	1977	37.2
Pete	Rose	Reds	1978	45.2
Hal	McRae	Royals	1978	43.2
George	Brett	Royals	1978	38.8
Pete	Rose	Reds	1979	43.3
Keith	Hernandez	Cardinals	1979	41.5
George	Brett	Royals	1979	41.3

 

By the end of the decade the leading doublers were hitting 40 a year, which is enough to take the "absolute" off of the "absolutely safe" designation.  The doubles record was still relatively safe.   Pete Rose, from that era, got closer to Speaker than anyone else has.  The numbers stayed in that range through the 1980s, with Boggs and Mattingly being the notable names:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Pete	Rose	Phillies	1980	42.8
Keith	Hernandez	Cardinals	1980	40.8
George	Brett	Royals	1980	38.0
Bill	Buckner		1981	44.2
Cecil	Cooper	Brewers	1981	43.0
Keith	Hernandez	Cardinals	1981	41.4
Al	Oliver	Expos	1982	38.3
Hal	McRae	Royals	1982	37.2
Robin	Yount	Brewers	1982	36.2
Hal	McRae	Royals	1983	39.7
Robin	Yount	Brewers	1983	38.8
Al	Oliver	Expos	1983	38.2
Cal	Ripken	Orioles	1984	39.5
Johnny	Ray	Pirates	1984	36.7
Robin	Yount	Brewers	1984	35.2
Don	Mattingly	Yankees	1985	41.2
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1985	38.7
Bill	Buckner		1985	36.3
Don	Mattingly	Yankees	1986	49.8
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1986	42.7
Bill	Buckner	Red Sox	1986	38.3
Don	Mattingly	Yankees	1987	44.7
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1987	42.7
Von	Hayes	Phillies	1987	38.3
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1988	43.7
Don	Mattingly	Yankees	1988	40.0
Kirby	Puckett	Twins	1988	37.8
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1989	47.2
Kirby	Puckett	Twins	1989	41.8
Tim	Wallach	Expos	1989	38.7

 

Mattingly hit 44-48-53 doubles in a three-year span, giving in an established level of 49.8.   That’s in range.  If he had been able to stay healthy, Mattingly probably would have hit 700 or more doubles.   Most of the numbers from the decade were still not in range.   

In 1999 Craig Biggio became the first player since Stan Musial to have an Established Doubles level of 50:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1990	46.5
Kirby	Puckett	Twins	1990	42.0
Jody	Reed	Red Sox	1990	40.3
Wade	Boggs	Red Sox	1991	44.2
Jody	Reed	Red Sox	1991	43.0
Bobby	Bonilla	Pirates	1991	41.2
Edgar	Martinez	Mariners	1992	39.2
George	Brett	Royals	1992	38.3
Ken Jr.	Griffey	Mariners	1992	38.2
John	Olerud	Blue Jays	1993	41.3
Ken Jr.	Griffey	Mariners	1993	39.0
Frank	Thomas	White Sox	1993	38.5
Craig	Biggio	Astros	1994	49.2
John	Olerud	Blue Jays	1994	44.6
Frank	Thomas	White Sox	1994	44.0
Albert	Belle	Indians	1995	46.2
Mark	Grace	Cubs	1995	42.0
Dante	Bichette	Rockies	1995	39.3
Edgar	Martinez	Mariners	1996	47.2
Albert	Belle	Indians	1996	42.2
Mark	Grace	Cubs	1996	40.3
Albert	Belle	White Sox	1997	43.8
Edgar	Martinez	Mariners	1997	43.5
Jeff	Cirillo	Brewers	1997	41.5
Albert	Belle	White Sox	1998	45.3
Edgar	Martinez	Mariners	1998	43.8
John	Valentin	Red Sox	1998	42.5
Craig	Biggio	Astros	1999	51.2
Albert	Belle	Orioles	1999	41.5
Carlos	Delgado	Blue Jays	1999	40.8

 

Biggio had the only serious injury of his career in 2000, an injury which probably cost him 60 to 70 doubles, as it took several years for Biggio to get completely back where he was.   He missed Speaker’s record by 124, so he wasn’t quite there even without the injury.  Biggio had very high numbers, but he was way ahead of anybody else at that time.   One player reaching that level is a lot different than 10 players reaching that level over a period of five years. 

By the year 2000, Coors Field and Camden Yards were part of the game, and for the first half of the decade players were using steroids:

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Todd	Helton	Rockies	2000	48.7
Carlos	Delgado	Blue Jays	2000	48.7
Nomar	Garciaparra	Red Sox	2000	45.7
Todd	Helton	Rockies	2001	53.2
Jeff	Kent	Giants	2001	44.8
Bobby	Abreu	Phillies	2001	43.8
Bobby	Abreu	Phillies	2002	48.0
Garret	Anderson	Angels	2002	47.7
Todd	Helton	Rockies	2002	47.3
Garret	Anderson	Angels	2003	49.7
Albert	Pujols	Cardinals	2003	46.7
Todd	Helton	Rockies	2003	46.5
Albert	Pujols	Cardinals	2004	49.2
Todd	Helton	Rockies	2004	47.3
Craig	Biggio	Astros	2004	44.2
Todd	Helton	Rockies	2005	47.0
Miguel	Tejada	Orioles	2005	45.3
Albert	Pujols	Cardinals	2005	44.5
Michael	Young	Rangers	2006	44.8
Miguel	Cabrera	Marlins	2006	44.5
Lyle	Overbay	Blue Jays	2006	43.2
Matt	Holliday	Rockies	2007	44.0
Chase	Utley	Phillies	2007	43.8
Freddy	Sanchez	Pirates	2007	43.0
Brian	Roberts	Orioles	2008	45.2
Alex	Rios	Blue Jays	2008	43.3
Chase	Utley	Phillies	2008	43.2
Brian	Roberts	Orioles	2009	52.0
Dustin	Pedroia	Red Sox	2009	48.5
Nick	Markakis	Orioles	2009	45.7

 

That was about the point, about ten years ago, at which I thought that the numbers were getting high enough that somebody had a chance to make a run at Tris Speaker.  It hasn’t really happened yet. 

 

First	Last	Team	YEAR	EDL
Nick	Markakis	Orioles	2010	45.5
Billy	Butler	Royals	2010	43.2
Evan	Longoria	Rays	2010	42.8
Billy	Butler	Royals	2011	45.5
Miguel	Cabrera	Tigers	2011	44.7
Robinson	Cano	Yankees	2011	44.7
Robinson	Cano	Yankees	2012	46.2
Adrian	Gonzalez	Red Sox	2012	44.0
Miguel	Cabrera	Tigers	2012	43.5
Robinson	Cano	Yankees	2013	44.2
Dustin	Pedroia	Red Sox	2013	40.2
Adrian	Gonzalez	Dodgers	2013	39.2
Miguel	Cabrera	Tigers	2014	41.3
Robinson	Cano	Mariners	2014	40.2
Jose	Altuve	Astros	2014	39.5
Matt	Carpenter	Cardinals	2015	42.2
Michael	Brantley	Indians	2015	41.8
Jose	Altuve	Astros	2015	40.8
Daniel	Murphy	Nationals	2016	42.3
Jose	Altuve	Astros	2016	42.2
David	Ortiz	Red Sox	2016	40.8
Jose	Ramirez	Indians	2017	45.7
Mookie	Betts	Red Sox	2017	44.0
Daniel	Murphy	Nationals	2017	43.5
Mookie	Betts	Red Sox	2018	45.8
Jose	Ramirez	Indians	2018	45.3
Anthony	Rendon	Nationals	2018	42.0
Nick	Castellanos	Cubs	2019	50.3
Xander	Bogaerts	Red Sox	2019	46.3
Anthony	Rendon	Nationals	2019	43.5
Nick	Castellanos	Reds	2020	47.4
Freddie	Freeman	Braves	2020	44.0
Rafael	Devers	Red Sox	2020	43.8

 

Since then, the numbers have not really faded.  The number of doubles being hit by a few players remains high enough that somebody could conceivably do it.   Remember what I said; at 53 doubles a year for the league leaders, the record would have to fall.   At 44 doubles a year for the leaders, it is relatively safe.   But a player has to sustain very high levels in this area over the course of a career.  Let’s look at who might do that.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * *

 

A player’s chance of reaching a goal is a product of:

 

a)     How far he is from the goal,

b)     How fast he is moving toward the goal, and

c)      How much time he has. 

 

We represent these in our formula as:

a)     How many doubles he has hit so far in his career,

b)     How many doubles per year he is hitting, and

c)      How many years he has left. 

 

We know how many doubles each player has hit, so that’s easy.  We use the Established Doubles Level to represent how many doubles per season he is hitting.  For how many years he has left, we subtract his age from 42, and divide by two.   A 20-year-old player, we figure he has 11 years left in his career.  A 25-year-old player, we figure he had 8.5 years left, eight and a half.  At 30, he has 6 years left; at 35, three and a half.  At 40, he has one year left.   Some players will go OVER that estimate; some players will fall short.  That is what is meant by the concept of "chance".  We just don’t know; we estimate based on what we do know.   We also use a "special case rule" that if a player has 400 plate appearances in a season, his years remaining cannot be less than 1.50, regardless of age, and that no player’s years remaining can be estimated at less than 0.75, regardless of age.

We multiply the player’s Years Remaining times his Established Doubles Level, and the result is what we will call "Expected Remaining Doubles."   The highest number of expected remaining doubles for any player since 1931 was 486, by Joe Medwick after the 1936 season.  He actually hit 338 doubles after that. 

If the player’s expected remaining doubles are larger than the number of doubles he needs to hit to break the record, then his chance is over 50%.   No player since 1931 has been over 50%. 

If the player’s expected remaining doubles are the same as the number he needs, then his chance is 50%, since he may do better than that, or he may do worse.  No player since 1931 has been AT 50%, either.

If the player’s expected remaining doubles are 75% of what he needs, then his chance of breaking the record is 25%.

If the player’s expected remaining doubles are less than half of what he needs, then he has no established chance to break the record. 

The highest established chance to break the record, since 1931, was 41%, by Ducky Medwick after the 1937 season.  The highest established chance by anyone other than Medwick was 23%, by Albert Pujols in 2004.   Pujols chance was still 22% as recently as 2012.   Stan Musial also got to 22%. 

Pujols’ chance has gotten away from him; he is still six years away from breaking the record, and he’s 40 years old and will retire after the 2021 season.  This chart gives, for each season since 1931,

a)     The player in the major leagues who had the best chance of hitting 792 career doubles,

b)     His age,

c)      How many career doubles he had at that time,

d)     His Established Doubles Level (EDL),

e)     His Estimated Remaining Doubles (ERD),

f)       How many doubles he would need to hit from that point forward, and

g)     His estimated chance to hit 792 career doubles.

 

You will note that a few seasons are missing, because no player at that time had any established chance to break the record. 

 

First	Last	YEAR	AGE	2B	EDL	ERD	Need	Chance
Red	Kress	1931	24	155	43.7	393	637	12%
Dick	Bartell	1932	24	171	43.7	393	621	13%
Joe	Cronin	1933	26	215	44.2	353	577	11%
Hank	Greenberg	1934	23	96	42.5	404	696	8%
Hank	Greenberg	1935	24	142	49.5	446	650	19%
Joe	Medwick	1936	24	202	54.0	486	590	32%
Joe	Medwick	1937	25	258	57.0	485	534	41%
Joe	Medwick	1938	26	305	52.8	423	487	37%
Joe	Medwick	1939	27	353	49.0	368	439	34%
Joe	Medwick	1940	28	383	38.8	272	409	16%
Joe	Medwick	1941	29	416	34.5	224	376	10%
Joe	Medwick	1942	30	453	34.5	207	339	11%
Joe	Medwick	1943	31	483	32.8	181	309	8%
Stan	Musial	1944	23	135	46.8	445	657	18%
Stan	Musial	1946	25	185	50.0	425	607	20%
Stan	Musial	1947	26	215	40.2	321	577	6%
Stan	Musial	1948	27	261	41.3	310	531	8%
Stan	Musial	1949	28	302	40.8	286	490	8%
Stan	Musial	1950	29	343	41.8	272	449	11%
George	Kell	1951	28	253	43.0	301	539	6%
Stan	Musial	1952	31	415	37.8	208	377	5%
Stan	Musial	1953	32	468	45.5	228	324	20%
Stan	Musial	1954	33	509	45.2	203	283	22%
Stan	Musial	1955	34	539	37.5	150	253	9%
Stan	Musial	1956	35	572	33.3	117	220	3%
Stan	Musial	1957	36	610	35.0	105	182	8%
Stan	Musial	1958	37	645	35.7	89	147	11%
Hank	Aaron	1959	25	205	38.8	330	587	6%
Vada	Pinson	1960	21	91	35.3	371	701	3%
Vada	Pinson	1961	22	125	37.2	372	667	6%
Frank	Robinson	1962	26	228	41.7	333	564	9%
Carl	Yastrzemski	1963	23	114	39.5	375	678	5%
Carl	Yastrzemski	1965	25	188	38.8	330	604	5%
Carl	Yastrzemski	1966	26	227	39.3	315	565	6%
Carl	Yastrzemski	1967	27	258	36.0	270	534	1%
Rusty	Staub	1968	24	156	37.8	341	636	4%
Cesar	Cedeno	1972	21	100	36.3	382	692	5%
Cesar	Cedeno	1973	22	135	37.2	372	657	7%
Pete	Rose	1975	34	441	44.5	178	351	1%
Pete	Rose	1976	35	483	44.2	155	309	<1%
George	Brett	1978	25	169	38.8	330	623	3%
George	Brett	1979	26	211	41.3	331	581	7%
Robin	Yount	1980	24	193	37.0	333	599	6%
Keith	Hernandez	1981	27	217	41.4	311	575	4%
Robin	Yount	1982	26	254	36.2	289	538	4%
Robin	Yount	1983	27	296	38.8	291	496	9%
Cal	Ripken	1984	23	116	39.5	375	676	6%
Don	Mattingly	1985	24	107	41.2	371	685	4%
Don	Mattingly	1986	25	160	49.8	424	632	17%
Don	Mattingly	1987	26	198	44.7	357	594	10%
Don	Mattingly	1988	27	235	40.0	300	557	4%
Wade	Boggs	1989	31	314	47.2	259	478	4%
Wade	Boggs	1990	32	358	46.5	233	434	4%
Ruben	Sierra	1991	25	196	40.2	341	596	7%
Ken Jr.	Griffey	1992	22	132	38.2	382	660	8%
Ken Jr.	Griffey	1993	23	170	39.0	371	622	10%
John	Olerud	1994	25	156	44.6	379	636	10%
Albert	Belle	1995	28	185	46.2	323	607	3%
Ivan	Rodriguez	1996	24	158	37.3	336	634	3%
Alex	Rodriguez	1997	21	100	39.0	410	692	9%
Alex	Rodriguez	1998	22	135	39.8	398	657	11%
Craig	Biggio	1999	33	389	51.2	230	403	7%
Todd	Helton	2000	26	137	48.7	389	655	9%
Todd	Helton	2001	27	191	53.2	399	601	16%
Todd	Helton	2002	28	230	47.3	331	562	9%
Albert	Pujols	2003	23	138	46.7	443	654	18%
Albert	Pujols	2004	24	189	49.2	443	603	23%
Albert	Pujols	2005	25	227	44.5	378	565	17%
Miguel	Cabrera	2006	23	145	44.5	423	647	15%
Miguel	Cabrera	2007	24	183	42.8	386	609	13%
Albert	Pujols	2008	28	342	40.2	281	450	12%
Albert	Pujols	2009	29	387	43.5	283	405	20%
Albert	Pujols	2010	30	426	41.8	251	366	19%
Miguel	Cabrera	2011	28	346	44.7	313	446	20%
Albert	Pujols	2012	32	505	41.2	206	287	22%
Robinson	Cano	2013	30	375	44.2	265	417	14%
Miguel	Cabrera	2014	31	464	41.3	227	328	19%
Miguel	Cabrera	2015	32	492	35.7	178	300	9%
Jose	Altuve	2016	26	204	42.2	337	588	7%
Jose	Ramirez	2017	24	126	45.7	411	666	12%
Mookie	Betts	2018	25	189	45.8	390	603	15%
Nick	Castellanos	2019	27	229	50.3	378	563	17%
Rafael	Devers	2020	23	108	43.8	416	684	11%

 

Essentially, from 1935 to 1958 the candidates were Medwick and Musial, and since 1958 the leading candidates have been Yastrzemski, Rose, Mattingly, Pujols and Cabrera.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

The question which animates this research, however, was not "WHO has a chance to break the record?" or "Who had a chance to break the record years ago but didn’t do it?"  The questions are:

1)     What is the chance that the record will be broken by some player now active, and

2)     Is that number going up or down?

 

To answer THOSE questions, we need to look not at the number for any one player, but at the sum total of the chances for all active players.

Since 1931, a total of 309 players have had some small chance to break the record. . .not 309 different players, but like Robinson Cano after the 2007 season, Robinson Cano after 2008, Robinson Cano after 2009, etc.   I think Cano appears on the list seven times.  There are probably about 100 different players who had some small chance at some time. 

Technically, if two players each have a 10% chance of breaking the career doubles record, the chance that the record will be broken is not 20%; it is 19%, and there is a 1% chance that it would be broken by two people.   We’re not going to worry about that; we’re just going to add them up. 

            This chart tracks the sum score of the chances that the record will be broken, by year, since 1931:

 

YEAR	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
1930		45%	67%	34%	24%	39%	85%	73%	62%	39%
1940	32%	32%	22%	13%	8%	18%	0%	20%	6%	11%
1950	19%	19%	7%	5%	20%	22%	9%	3%	8%	11%
1960	6%	6%	6%	9%	7%	0%	6%	6%	1%	4%
1970	0%	0%	0%	5%	7%	0%	1%	0%	4%	13%
1980	12%	12%	5%	4%	9%	8%	5%	17%	10%	4%
1990	4%	4%	11%	12%	16%	36%	3%	3%	14%	19%
2000	42%	42%	23%	30%	53%	49%	46%	51%	61%	56%
2010	75%	75%	56%	61%	22%	42%	19%	15%	31%	50%
2020	39%

 

            So the simple answer is:  the chance that the record will be broken is higher now than it has been for most of the last 90 years—but lower than it was in the era 2007 to 2011, when I speculated that the record was in trouble. 

            In the first few years after Speaker retired, the chance of his record being broken was generally over 50%.   Players hit 60 and 60+ doubles several times in that decade.  That chance faded steadily through the 1940s and 1950s.   From 1960 to 1978 there was never as much as a 10% chance of the record being broken by an active player. 

            In the 1980s and 1990s there were a few players who looked like they might have a chance, putting the probability generally in the range of 10 to 20%.  In the first eleven years of the 21^st century, due to steroids and a couple of doubles-friendly ballparks, that number grew dramatically, reaching 75% in 2010 and 2011. 

 

*****************

           

            This is sort of a confession, or something that I learned from doing this research. 

            I should have based the Established Doubles Level on a four-year history, rather than a three-year history.   A three-year history works fine for hits, but the numbers of hits are much larger than the numbers of doubles.   When you have smaller numbers you have more instability in the data, thus need to survey a broader landscape in order to get accurate measurements.  If I had used a four-year history rather than a three-year, players’ estimates would not bounce around as much, and also, the highest estimates would tend to be a little bit lower, thus the estimated chance that the record will be broken would be somewhat lower. 

            Oh, well.  Live and learn.  Do research and learn; that’s kind of the point. 

           

*****************

 

            The last thing I need to do in this article is to report on the research about doubles and aging. 

            To look at the question of whether doubles as a percentage of hits decline as a player ages, I created a file which just has the career records of all players in baseball history who played 2,000 games or more.   The reason for doing that is that only long-term players are relevant to the question.   If you study ALL 23-year-old players and all 33-year-old players, for example, you’re dealing with two different sets of players, for the most part.  I wanted to look at the SAME players over time. 

            For all of those players as a group, I then recorded:

1)     How many hits they had through each age,

2)     How many doubles they had through each age,

3)     What that percentage is,

4)     How many home runs they had through each age,

5)     What that percentage is,

6)     How many hits they had AFTER that age,

7)     How many doubles they had after that age,

8)     What that percentage is,

9)     How many home runs they had after that age,

10)            What that percentage is,

11)            What the ratio is of the doubles percentage after that age to the doubles percentage through that age, and

12)            What the ratio is of the home run percentage after that age to the home run percentage through that age. 

 

This, for example, would be the data for players through age 25:

 

AGE	H	2B	2B Rate	HR	HR RATE
25	142974	24558	.172	13518	.095
	R H	R 2B	2B Rate	R HR	HR RATE	Ratio 2B	Ratio HR
	446324	80028	.179	49371	.111	1.044	1.170

 

Through age 25, the players in the study had 142,974 hits, of which 24,558 were doubles, which is 17.2% doubles.  After the age of 25 they had 446,324 hits, or which 80,028 were doubles, which is 17.9% doubles.  Their doubles rate increased by 4.4% AFTER the age of 25.   Their home run rate increased by 17% after age 25. 

I’ll present all of the data from the chart, because I might as well, but the chart is large enough that I’ll have to break it down into three charts.  This one is doubles:

 

AGE	H	2B	2B Rate	R H	R 2B	2B Rate	Ratio 2B
17	41	3	.073	11620	2021	.174	2.377
18	427	64	.150	32421	5504	.170	1.133
19	2636	411	.156	119839	21011	.175	1.124
20	9519	1614	.170	220962	38353	.174	1.024
21	23532	3967	.169	360162	63418	.176	1.045
22	45054	7499	.166	445988	79362	.178	1.069
23	73895	12407	.168	473700	84534	.178	1.063
24	105746	17927	.170	478917	85822	.179	1.057
25	142974	24558	.172	446324	80028	.179	1.044
26	180730	31144	.172	410381	73587	.179	1.041
27	218795	37799	.173	377846	67736	.179	1.038
28	257496	44844	.174	341640	61181	.179	1.028
29	295299	51637	.175	303837	54388	.179	1.024
30	332453	58322	.175	266254	47691	.179	1.021
31	369340	64992	.176	229852	41010	.178	1.014
32	406297	71531	.176	192815	34439	.179	1.015
33	441464	77821	.176	157691	28115	.178	1.011
34	474629	83699	.176	124614	22325	.179	1.016
35	494909	87449	.177	93440	16650	.178	1.008
36	492798	87142	.177	66150	11830	.179	1.011
37	461913	82321	.178	43588	7801	.179	1.004
38	389528	69396	.178	27963	4929	.176	0.989
39	337420	60444	.179	16038	2762	.172	0.961
40	266557	47987	.180	8161	1336	.164	0.909
41	165077	29167	.177	3570	563	.158	0.893
42	102538	17620	.172	2024	317	.157	0.911
43	55785	9338	.167	1018	159	.156	0.933
44	28795	4750	.165	447	73	.163	0.990
45	18030	2895	.161	129	25	.194	1.207
46	2521	394	.156	65	13	.200	1.280
47	2566	404	.157	20	3	.150	0.953
48	2586	407	.157	0	0	.000	0.000

 

As players retire, they drop out of the data, so the number of hits, etc., begins to decrease as a raw number.  It’s not PERFECTLY the same set of players; it is just GENERALLY the same set of players.

We can see, then, that doubles as a percentage of hits INCREASE until a player is 37 years old, and decrease after age 37 (ignoring the small-sample-size data beginning at age 44.)   This is the same chart for home runs:

 

AGE	H	HR	HR RATE	R H	R HR	HR RATE	Ratio HR
17	41	1	.024	11620	1357	.117	4.788
18	427	19	.044	32421	3749	.116	2.599
19	2636	162	.061	119839	12559	.105	1.705
20	9519	762	.080	220962	24847	.112	1.405
21	23532	1933	.082	360162	40420	.112	1.366
22	45054	3820	.085	445988	49143	.110	1.300
23	73895	6548	.089	473700	52980	.112	1.262
24	105746	9686	.092	478917	52908	.110	1.206
25	142974	13518	.095	446324	49371	.111	1.170
26	180730	17596	.097	410381	45391	.111	1.136
27	218795	21960	.100	377846	41622	.110	1.098
28	257496	26354	.102	341640	37400	.109	1.070
29	295299	30711	.104	303837	33043	.109	1.046
30	332453	35068	.105	266254	28753	.108	1.024
31	369340	39140	.106	229852	24643	.107	1.012
32	406297	43112	.106	192815	20504	.106	1.002
33	441464	46777	.106	157691	16608	.105	0.994
34	474629	50746	.107	124614	13083	.105	0.982
35	494909	52518	.106	93440	9646	.103	0.973
36	492798	53028	.108	66150	6721	.102	0.944
37	461913	49500	.107	43588	4354	.100	0.932
38	389528	41904	.108	27963	2704	.097	0.899
39	337420	36652	.109	16038	1412	.088	0.811
40	266557	28909	.108	8161	646	.079	0.730
41	165077	16322	.099	3570	251	.070	0.711
42	102538	10536	.103	2024	104	.051	0.500
43	55785	4244	.076	1018	39	.038	0.504
44	28795	1725	.060	447	22	.049	0.822
45	18030	991	.055	129	12	.093	1.692
46	2521	170	.067	65	3	.046	0.684
47	2566	172	.067	20	1	.050	0.746
48	2586	173	.067	0	0	.000	0.000

 

The home run data has the same patterns, but at a much more volatile level.   Doubles as a percentage of hits increase as a player matures, and Home Runs as a percentage of this increase as a player matures, but home runs increase much, much more than doubles do.  Looking at 24-year-olds, there is a 6% increase for doubles, but a 21% increase for home runs. 

 

 

 

AGE	Ratio 2B	Ratio HR
17	2.377	4.788
18	1.133	2.599
19	1.124	1.705
20	1.024	1.405
21	1.045	1.366
22	1.069	1.300
23	1.063	1.262
24	1.057	1.206
25	1.044	1.170
26	1.041	1.136
27	1.038	1.098
28	1.028	1.070
29	1.024	1.046
30	1.021	1.024
31	1.014	1.012
32	1.015	1.002
33	1.011	0.994
34	1.016	0.982
35	1.008	0.973
36	1.011	0.944
37	1.004	0.932
38	0.989	0.899
39	0.961	0.811
40	0.909	0.730
41	0.893	0.711
42	0.911	0.500
43	0.933	0.504
44	0.990	0.822
45	1.207	1.692
46	1.280	0.684
47	0.953	0.746

 

 

As the player moves into his 30s, his doubles eventually start to decrease (as a percentage of hits), and his home runs do, as well.  But doubles don’t start to decrease until the player is 38, whereas home runs start to decrease at 33.  By age 39, doubles are decreasing by 4%; home runs, by 19%.   It’s a different thing.  You can ignore it for doubles; you can’t ignore it for home runs. 

Thanks for reading.