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The Greatest Strikeout Seasons Ever

By Dave Fleming

August 24, 2017

I asked for some help in my last article: I wanted to know how to create a metric that would measure individual strikeout performances across eras, while taking into account each seasons’ proximity to the ‘ceiling’ of potential strikeouts.

Let me try and explain that through a few hypotheticals. Who is the better strikeout pitcher?

Name	K%
Pitcher A	15%
Pitcher B	20%

Absent any other context, all of us would say that Pitcher B is the better strikeout pitcher. He is, after all, striking out a greater percentage of the hitters he faces.

But if we add some contexts, we muddy the waters a little bit. How does these guys compare to their peers in the league? Who is the better strikeout pitcher now?

Name	K%	Lg. K%
Pitcher A	15%	5%
Pitcher B	20%	10%

Most of us would say that Pitcher A is the better strikeout pitcher, because he’s managed to triple the league’s average. Pitcher B struck out more hitters overall, but he’s not quite as far ahead of the league as Pitcher A. If you listed each pitcher by Adjusted Strikeout Percentage (K%+), Pitcher A would have a K%+ mark of 300, meaning that he was three times the league average. Pitcher B would score a 200 K%+.

So that’s one context out of the way, the league context. The best pitchers today have strikeout rates that exceed anything Walter Johnson or Sandy Koufax ever accomplished: that doesn’t mean that they were better strikeout pitchers than Walter Johnson or Sandy Koufax. They just happen to pitch in an era more favorable to strikeouts. Adjusting for league context helps us get a better picture.

But what about this case?

Name	K%	Lg. K%
Pitcher A	30%	15%
Pitcher B	50%	25%

Both pitchers would have the same Adjusted Strikeout Percentage: 200. They’ve both doubled the league average.

Are they the same?

I think that most of us would agree that they’re not the same. While both pitchers have doubled the strikeout rates in their respective leagues, Pitcher B is striking out more batters overall. He has doubled his league’s strikeout rate in an era of more strikeouts. He is pitching closer to the maximum ceiling of this metric. It’s a fair bit harder to double a 25% strikeout percentage than it is to double a 15% strikeout percentage.

Let me phrase that a little differently, just so we’re all following this point. The maximum K%+ that Pitcher A could tally is 667. If he struck out every single batter he faced, his percentage would be six-point-six-seven times the league average.

If Pitcher B did the exact same thing, his Adjusted Strikeout Percentage would be only 400, or four times the league average. He can’t do any better than that, because the league is much closer to the ceiling. He can’t strike out 150% of the batters he faces, not unless he knows how to warp spacetime.

I asked how to account for this ‘ceiling’ issue, and the ever-brilliant Tom Tango provided the answer. He said that I should use something called the Odds Ratio Method, which consists of calculating the odds that an event will occur in a league and for an individual player, and dividing the two decimals.

Let’s do Player A:

Name	K%	Lg. K%
Pitcher A	30%	15%

League Odds = League K% / (Ceiling of Metric – League K%)

Pitcher Odds = Pitcher K% / (Ceiling of Metric – Pitcher K%)

League Odds = .15 / (1.00 – .15)

Pitcher Odds = .30 / (1.00 – .30)

League Odds = .17647

Pitcher Odds = .42857

Pitcher Odds / League Odds = .42857 / .17647 = 2.43

Pitcher A has an Odds Ratio K% of 2.43. How about Pitcher B?

Name	K%	Lg. K%
Pitcher B	50%	25%

League Odds = .25 / (1 – .25)

Pitcher Odds = .50 / (1 – .50)

League Odds = .3333

Pitcher Odds = 1.0000

Pitcher Odds / League Odds = 1 / .3333 = 3.00

So we get:

Name	K%	Lg. K%	Odds Ratio K%
Pitcher A	30%	15%	2.43
Pitcher B	50%	25%	3.00

Both pitchers have the same ratio of strikeouts relative to their league. But Pitcher B rates as the better strikeout pitcher, because we’re now adjusting for his league being closer to the absolute ceiling for strikeouts.

* * *

Just an aside: this kind of stuff is really satisfying for me. I’ve been wondering how to understand strikeout rates better than by just adjusting for league contexts for a little while, just tinkering with different kinds of equations and not really getting anywhere.

This math takes us a step closer to a good answer. That’s really satisfying, to know that we can adjust for the ceiling of any metric. We can do this for most stats…we can it for batting average or slugging percentage just as easily as we do it for strikeout percentages. That’s really handy. It’s great.

And…it’s not perfect. We’re on our way to fixing for one little variable, but there is nothing perfect about this metric. For one thing, we’re invariably counting the pitcher’s individual strikeouts among the league’s strikeouts…the league average that we’re about to use is going to include the individual pitchers who we’ll look at. So…that’s not perfect.

And there are other reasons it isn’t perfect. I’m sure a lot of you will point out the many ways that this metric is flawed. I get that, and I agree with that. I’m not trying to suggest we’re at a solution; I’m just celebrating the little step. I’m excited that there is a mathematical solution to one small problem; to one strand in the wider tapestry we are trying our best to see.

* * *

Let’s try and use this technique to answer a real-life question: who had the best strikeout season in baseball history?

How do we figure that out?

First we have to settle on a variable. We can use strikeout percentage (K%), or strikeouts-per-nine (K/9). Which one is more accurate to the question at hand?

Just my two cents, I like K/9 IP a little better than strikeout percentage, at least for this specific question. Nolan Ryan struck out a lot of guys, but he also walked a ton of guys…if you go by his percentage of strikeouts, those walks are going to hurt him, because they are plate appearances that don’t end in strikeouts. If you go by strikeouts-per-nine, those walks won’t matter.

Mid-seventies Nolan Ryan wasn’t the greatest pitcher of his era, but he was pretty obviously a terrific strikeout pitcher. I think K/9 reflects that a little better than K%. Same holds for a pitcher like Sam McDowell and Bob Feller. Same holds for a lot of strikeout pitchers, frankly. There is a big correlation between getting a lot of strikeouts and giving up a lot of walks. I don’t want to penalize walks.

Can we use the Odds Ratio Metric for stikeouts-per-nine innings?

Sure. We just have to change the limit. The ceiling for K% is 100%, or 1.00. The ceiling for K/9 IP is 27.

Or…it’s actually a little more than 27. Technically, the limit of K/9 is infinite. If you had an impossibly bad catcher behind the plate, it would be possible for a pitcher to strike out an infinite number of batters per nine innings. But the realistic limit of the metric is 27.

What’s next?

Every pitching season in baseball history is a gigantic database, and I’m not really interested in plugging in the league data for every season. How about looking at the annual league leaders in strikeouts-per-nine innings pitched?

After all, we’re looking for the best strikeout seasons ever….you can’t reasonably claim ‘best strikeout season’ if you didn’t pace your league in K/9. We shouldn’t miss any big-time strikeout pitchers if we go by the K/9 leaders.

There have been 117 seasons since the American League joined the National League in 1901. That gives us a sample of 234 pitching seasons:

Year	National League	K/9	American League	K/9
1901	Tom Hughes	6.57	Ned Garvin	4.27
1902	Doc White	5.44	Rube Waddell	6.84
1903	Christy Mathewson	6.56	Rube Waddell	8.39
1904	Hooks Wiltse	5.74	Rube Waddell	8.20
1905	Red Ames	6.78	Rube Waddell	7.86
1906	Red Ames	6.91	Rube Waddell	6.47
1907	Red Ames	5.63	Rube Waddell	7.34
1908	Orval Overall	6.68	Rube Waddell	7.31
1909	Orval Overall	6.47	Heinie Berger	5.90
1910	Louis Drucke	6.31	Walter Johnson	7.61
1911	Rube Marquard	7.68	Smoky Joe Wood	7.54
1912	Pete Alexander	5.66	Walter Johnson	7.39
1913	Jeff Tesreau	5.33	Walter Johnson	6.32
1914	Ben Tincup	6.27	Dutch Leonard	7.05
1915	Pete Alexander	5.76	Dutch Leonard	5.70
1916	Larry Cheney	5.91	Walter Johnson	5.55
1917	Hippo Vaughn	5.94	Walter Johnson	5.19
1918	Hippo Vaughn	4.59	Guy Morton	5.16
1919	Hod Eller	4.97	Allen Russell	4.80
1920	Al Mamaux	4.77	Doc Ayers	4.44
1921	Burleigh Grimes	4.05	Walter Johnson	4.88
1922	Dazzy Vance	4.91	Guy Morton	4.53
1923	Dazzy Vance	6.33	Syl Johnson	4.75
1924	Dazzy Vance	7.65	Walter Johnson	5.12
1925	Dazzy Vance	7.50	Lefty Grove	5.30
1926	Dazzy Vance	7.46	Lefty Grove	6.77
1927	Dazzy Vance	6.06	Lefty Grove	5.97
1928	Dazzy Vance	6.42	George Earnshaw	6.65
1929	Pat Malone	5.60	Lefty Grove	5.56
1930	Bill Hallahan	6.71	Lefty Grove	6.46
1931	Dazzy Vance	6.17	Bump Hadley	6.21
1932	Dizzy Dean	6.01	Red Ruffing	6.60
1933	Dizzy Dean	6.11	Lefty Gomez	6.25
1934	Paul Dean	5.79	Red Ruffing	5.23
1935	Van Mungo	6.01	Johnny Allen	6.09
1936	Van Mungo	6.87	Johnny Allen	6.11
1937	Van Mungo	6.82	Lefty Gomez	6.27
1938	Carl Hubbell	5.23	Bob Feller	7.78
1939	Mort Cooper	5.55	Bob Feller	7.46
1940	Cliff Melton	4.91	Bob Feller	7.33
1941	Johnny Vander Meer	8.03	Bob Feller	6.82
1942	Johnny Vander Meer	6.86	Hal Newhouser	5.05
1943	Johnny Vander Meer	5.42	Allie Reynolds	6.84
1944	Max Lanier	5.66	Hal Newhouser	5.39
1945	Preacher Roe	5.67	Hal Newhouser	6.09
1946	Kirby Higbe	5.73	Hal Newhouser	8.46
1947	Ewell Blackwell	6.36	Bob Feller	5.90
1948	Harry Brecheen	5.75	Lou Brissie	5.89
1949	Don Newcombe	5.49	Tommy Byrne	5.92
1950	Ewell Blackwell	6.48	Early Wynn	6.02
1951	Mel Queen	6.58	Mickey McDermott	6.65
1952	Vinegar Bend Mizell	6.92	Mickey McDermott	6.50
1953	Vinegar Bend Mizell	6.94	Billy Pierce	6.17
1954	Harvey Haddix	6.38	Billy Pierce	7.06
1955	Sam Jones	7.37	Herb Score	9.70
1956	Sam Jones	8.40	Herb Score	9.49
1957	Sam Jones	7.59	Bob Turley	7.76
1958	Sam Jones	8.10	Camilo Pascual	7.41
1959	Don Drysdale	8.05	Herb Score	8.23
1960	Sandy Koufax	10.13	Jim Bunning	7.18
1961	Sandy Koufax	9.47	Juan Pizarro	8.69
1962	Sandy Koufax	10.55	Juan Pizarro	7.66
1963	Jim Maloney	9.53	Al Downing	8.76
1964	Sandy Koufax	9.00	Sam McDowell	9.19
1965	Sandy Koufax	10.24	Sam McDowell	10.71
1966	Sandy Koufax	8.83	Sam McDowell	10.42
1967	Gary Nolan	8.18	Luis Tiant	9.23
1968	Bill Singer	7.97	Sam McDowell	9.47
1969	Tom Griffin	9.56	Sam McDowell	8.81
1970	Tom Seaver	8.76	Sam McDowell	8.97
1971	Tom Seaver	9.08	Vida Blue	8.68
1972	Tom Seaver	8.55	Nolan Ryan	10.43
1973	Tom Seaver	7.79	Nolan Ryan	10.57
1974	Tom Seaver	7.67	Nolan Ryan	9.93
1975	John Montefusco	7.94	Frank Tanana	9.41
1976	Tom Seaver	7.80	Nolan Ryan	10.35
1977	Jerry Koosman	7.62	Nolan Ryan	10.26
1978	J.R. Richard	9.90	Nolan Ryan	9.97
1979	J.R. Richard	9.64	Nolan Ryan	9.01
1980	Mario Soto	8.61	Len Barker	6.83
1981	Steve Carlton	8.48	Dave Righetti	7.60
1982	Mario Soto	9.57	Dave Righetti	8.02
1983	Steve Carlton	8.73	Floyd Bannister	7.99
1984	Dwight Gooden	11.40	Mark Langston	8.16
1985	Sid Fernandez	9.51	Floyd Bannister	8.46
1986	Mike Scott	10.00	Mark Langston	9.21
1987	Nolan Ryan	11.48	Mark Langston	8.67
1988	Nolan Ryan	9.33	Roger Clemens	9.92
1989	Mark Langston	8.92	Nolan Ryan	11.32
1990	David Cone	9.91	Nolan Ryan	10.24
1991	David Cone	9.32	Nolan Ryan	10.56
1992	David Cone	9.79	Randy Johnson	10.31
1993	Jose Rijo	7.94	Randy Johnson	10.86
1994	Andy Benes	9.87	Randy Johnson	10.67
1995	Hideo Nomo	11.10	Randy Johnson	12.35
1996	John Smoltz	9.79	Roger Clemens	9.53
1997	Pedro Martinez	11.37	Randy Johnson	12.30
1998	Kerry Wood	12.58	Roger Clemens	10.39
1999	Randy Johnson	12.06	Pedro Martinez	13.21
2000	Randy Johnson	12.56	Pedro Martinez	11.78
2001	Randy Johnson	13.41	Hideo Nomo	10.00
2002	Randy Johnson	11.56	Pedro Martinez	10.79
2003	Kerry Wood	11.35	Pedro Martinez	9.93
2004	Oliver Perez	10.98	Johan Santana	10.46
2005	Mark Prior	10.15	Johan Santana	9.25
2006	Jake Peavy	9.56	Johan Santana	9.44
2007	Jake Peavy	9.67	Erik Bedard	10.93
2008	Tim Lincecum	10.51	A.J. Burnett	9.39
2009	Tim Lincecum	10.43	Justin Verlander	10.09
2010	Tim Lincecum	9.79	Jon Lester	9.74
2011	Zack Greinke	10.54	Brandon Morrow	10.19
2012	Gio Gonzalez	9.35	Max Scherzer	11.08
2013	A.J. Burnett	9.85	Yu Darvish	11.89
2014	Clayton Kershaw	10.85	Chris Sale	10.76
2015	Clayton Kershaw	11.64	Chris Sale	11.82
2016	Jose Fernandez	12.49	Michael Pineda	10.61
2017	Max Scherzer	12.35	Chris Sale	12.83

That’s a long list, so let’s get cracking.

Year	National League	K/9	Lg. K/9
1901	Tom Hughes	6.57	3.83
1902	Doc White	5.44	3.52
1903	Christy Mathewson	6.56	3.44

Hold on a second….

We’re measuring these pitchers against the league’s overall K/9 rate. Does it makes more sense to use the league’s overall strikeout rate, or the strikeout rate among starting pitchers?

Year	National League	K/9	Lg. K/9	Lg. SP K/9
1901	Tom Hughes	6.57	3.83	3.83
1902	Doc White	5.44	3.52	3.52
1903	Christy Mathewson	6.56	3.44	3.44

No difference there: the league strikeout rate at the turn of last century was essentially the same as the starter’s strikeout rate, because a) pitchers mostly stayed in games, and b) relief pitchers were typically the worst guys on the staff.

But what happens if we extend that into modern times?

Year	National League	SO9	Lg. K/9	Lg. SP K/9
1901	Tom Hughes	6.57	3.83	3.83
1902	Doc White	5.44	3.52	3.52
1903	Christy Mathewson	6.56	3.44	3.44
…	…	…	…	…
2012	Gio Gonzalez	9.35	7.69	7.28
2013	A.J. Burnett	9.85	7.49	7.19
2014	Clayton Kershaw	10.85	7.78	7.36

For modern pitchers, there’s a big difference between the overall strikeout rate and the strikeout rate among starting pitchers, because relief pitchers strike out a high percentage of hitters in today’s game. If we stick with overall K/9, we’re going to diminish some of the distance that elite strikeout starters have over their peers.

So we’re going to use the K/9 rate of starters in our math:

Year	National League	K/9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1901	Tom Hughes	6.57	3.83	1.94
1902	Doc White	5.44	3.52	1.68
1903	Christy Mathewson	6.56	3.44	2.20
1904	Hooks Wiltse	5.74	3.54	1.79
1905	Red Ames	6.78	3.65	2.15
1906	Red Ames	6.91	3.76	2.12
1907	Red Ames	5.63	3.51	1.76

So we get a list that looks a lot like this.

Red Ames is our first standout. I hadn’t ever heard of him before, but he was a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher for the Giants. He holds the ‘modern’ record for most wild pitches in a single-season (30), not counting pre-1901 pitchers. Ames had a reputation as a tough-luck pitcher…as a pitcher who lost games he should have won. I wonder if there is a correlation between being a wild, walk-prone pitcher and having that reputation. Ryan had that reputation, at least for a while. People chalked his W-L record up to bad teams.

I’ll post the whole list at the bottom of the article. What I thought I’d do first is look at the top-five Odds Ratio K/9 seasons of each decade, and then look at the top-20 seasons overall. So let’s do that.

Red Ames, it turns out, wasn’t the strikeout star of the first decade of World Series baseball.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	K/9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1902	AL	Rube Waddell	6.84	2.54	3.27
1903	AL	Rube Waddell	8.39	3.87	2.69
1904	AL	Rube Waddell	8.20	4.08	2.45
1907	AL	Rube Waddell	7.34	3.67	2.37
1908	NL	Orval Overall	6.68	3.37	2.31

Rube Waddell was. Waddell dominated the strikeout board for this decade: in addition to the top four spots, Waddell lays claim to the 6^th, 9^th, and 13^th best seasons.

It is my opinion that 85% of the ‘Rube’ of George Edward Waddell was exaggerated. Being an effective major league pitcher requires some degree of intelligence, and Waddell’s success suggests that, deliberate or native, he received more than his fair share from the good Lord. The man was simply too good of a pitcher to be the man-child that he is made out to be in the literature about him.

Christie Mathewson and Orval Overall were the two NL’ers who did well in this era. Neither compared to Waddell. Orval Overall is, of course, the quintessential baseball name of that period.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1911	NL	Rube Marquard	7.68	3.90	2.36
1910	AL	Walter Johnson	7.61	4.21	2.13
1911	AL	Smoky Joe Wood	7.54	4.19	2.11
1912	AL	Walter Johnson	7.39	4.24	2.02
1914	AL	Dutch Leonard	7.05	4.12	1.96

Another ‘Rube’ tops the list, though Marquard doesn’t blow away the pack quite the same way as Waddell.

One of the tests of this metric is whether it identifies the guys you’d expect to be the best of their generation. Certainly, Walter Johnson qualifies: we’d expect him to show up here, and he appears throughout this decade, as does Old Pete Alexander….not quite ‘old’ then. The 1911 season for Smoky Joe Wood was the year before he won 34 games.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1924	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.65	2.80	3.42
1926	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.46	2.77	3.34
1925	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.50	2.84	3.27
1926	AL	Lefty Grove	6.77	2.92	2.76
1928	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.42	2.80	2.70

The 1920’s is basically Dazzy Vance and Lefty Grove, with Walter Johnson making a few appearances.

Dazzy Vance’s 7.65 strikeout rate in 1924, a remarkable total for it’s era, is a strikeout less than the current league average. Just offering that tidbit for context.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1938	AL	Bob Feller	7.78	3.58	2.65
1930	NL	Bill Hallahan	6.71	3.14	2.51
1939	AL	Bob Feller	7.46	3.65	2.44
1933	NL	Dizzy Dean	6.11	2.92	2.41
1936	NL	Van Mungo	6.87	3.45	2.33

From Rube to Rube to Dazzy to Dizzy. Bob Feller debuted late into the decade and promptly launched himself to the top of the charts. Lefties Gomez and Grove showed up in the early part of the decade.

Van Mungo was this decade’s wild flamethrower: the SABR biography of Mungo starts with a quote from Wilbert Robinson, who said that Mungo was, "Another Vance, another Dazzy." He didn’t quite live up to that hype, but he had a few strong years before the walks got too close to the strikeouts.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1941	NL	Johnny Vander Meer	8.03	3.64	2.72
1946	AL	Hal Newhouser	8.46	4.32	2.39
1942	NL	Johnny Vander Meer	6.86	3.44	2.33
1943	AL	Allie Reynolds	6.84	3.59	2.21
1940	AL	Bob Feller	7.33	3.92	2.20

Newhouser, Vander Meer, and Feller were the strikeout stars of this decade. The most interesting guy on the list, to me, is Newhouser. While he won the AL MVP awards in 1944 and 1945, his best showing, at least as far as strikeouts go, was 1946, when all the World War II players came back. He came in second in the MVP vote, but was every bit as good a pitcher that year as he was in the earlier seasons. Maybe a bit better.

I don’t think the war cost Vander Meer a shot at the Hall of Fame, but you could make the case if you squinted hard ‘nuff. He was twenty-eight when he went off to join the Navy, coming off three consecutive years where he paced the NL in strikeouts, but also walking a bunch of hitters. Vander Meer was a lefty, and there are plenty of lefties who managed to strike out a lot of hitters as younger players, but didn’t get the control part down until their late twenties. It’s possible that Vander Meer would have had his peak years in 1944 and 1945.

Then again, the Reds weren’t much of a team throughout Vander Meer’s career: they reached the World Series in 1939 and 1940, years when Vander Meer was injured. When he was healthy, he was healthy on a second-rate ballclub. On a winner, Vander Meer might’ve had a few 20-win seasons around the war years, and you could fill in the gap with two big years and make a case. He just had bad timing.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1955	AL	Herb Score	9.70	4.55	2.77
1956	AL	Herb Score	9.49	4.88	2.46
1956	NL	Sam Jones	8.40	4.50	2.26
1951	AL	Mickey McDermott	6.65	3.72	2.04
1959	AL	Herb Score	8.23	4.84	2.01

The three years where Herb Score appears on this list are the three years when he managed to pitch more than 120 innings. 1955 and 1956 are the two pre-injury seasons….1959 was a couple years after Gil McDougald’s liner nearly killed him.

Score said that the thing that cost him his career wasn’t the line drive, but an elbow injury from 1958 was what really did him in. You can see the game in his 1958 logs: after shutting out the White Sox (and striking out 13 hitters) in early April, he had a really bad game against Washington, walking eight guys and losing the game in the ninth. It’s probable that the elbow was the real damage.

That said, I think Herb Score was heading for a Hall-of-Fame career, and maybe an inner-circle one. Like a lot of lefties, he walked his fair share of batters in the early years of his career, but Score seemed to be figuring it out earlier than other lefties. His strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from 1955 to 1956, and it improved from the first-half of 1956 to the second-half. If he had avoided McDougald or the elbow injury, there’s a good chance that he would’ve emerged as the best pitcher of his generation.

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1962	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.55	5.48	2.52
1960	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.13	5.45	2.37
1965	AL	Sam McDowell	10.71	5.86	2.37
1966	AL	Sam McDowell	10.42	5.86	2.27
1965	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.24	5.87	2.20

Sandy and Sudden Sam comprise most of the 1960’s list.

This is the third decade in a row where Cleveland had one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game….Feller and Allie Reynolds, then Herb Score, then Sudden Sam. I don’t have anything to say about that, just pointing it out.

Sam McDowell was traded for Gaylord Perry after the 1971. At the time of the trade, most people thought that the Giants got the better end of it: McDowell was approaching his twenty-ninth spin around the sun, while Perry was thirty-four, and looking older than that. Of course, Gaylord Perry went on to win 180 games and a couple more Cy Young Awards on his way to the Hall of Fame, while McDowell flamed out, winning just 19 games after the trade. Sometimes a bet on the old guy pays off.

That was the sixties. The seventies are going to be pretty boring:

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1976	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.35	4.57	3.05
1978	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.97	4.40	3.01
1973	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.57	5.01	2.83
1977	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.26	4.82	2.82
1974	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.93	4.78	2.70

Nolan also claims the sixth spot, and then J.R. Richards and Frank Tanana get some years scattered around other seasons of Ryan’s.

Nolan lead the 1980’s, too, though he gets a little competition:

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1989	AL	Nolan Ryan	11.32	5.11	3.09
1984	NL	Dwight Gooden	11.40	5.48	2.87
1987	NL	Nolan Ryan	11.48	5.74	2.74
1988	AL	Roger Clemens	9.92	5.31	2.37
1982	NL	Mario Soto	9.57	5.14	2.34

I started caring about baseball right in the middle of the debate about Clemens or Gooden as the best pitcher in the game. Through the end of 1990, you could reasonably make a case for each pitcher, but Rocket pulled ahead in 1991 and 1992, winning a couple ERA titles and a third Cy Young Award while Gooden scuffled to a couple 3.00+ ERA seasons. Then Gooden missed time, and it wasn’t a debate.

Clemens and Nolan Ryan, two Texans, had a couple appearances in the 1990’s, but a new generation of pitchers pushed them off the list at the end of the decade:

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
1999	AL	Pedro Martinez	13.21	5.99	3.36
1995	AL	Randy Johnson	12.35	5.75	3.11
1997	AL	Randy Johnson	12.30	6.08	2.88
1998	NL	Kerry Wood	12.58	6.53	2.74
1999	NL	Randy Johnson	12.06	6.26	2.67

Pedro and Unit would hold sway over the next decade, too, with Kerry Wood showing up in the sixth spot before his arm fell apart:

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
2001	NL	Randy Johnson	13.41	6.66	3.01
2000	NL	Randy Johnson	12.56	6.42	2.79
2000	AL	Pedro Martinez	11.78	5.98	2.72
2002	NL	Randy Johnson	11.56	6.46	2.38
2002	AL	Pedro Martinez	10.79	5.91	2.38

One of the things that has surprised me about this is how clear the strikeout kings are, decade by decade. It was Waddell and Walter Johnson, Vance and Grove and Feller, Score and Sandy and Sudden Sam McDowell, Nolan and Pedro and Randy. There aren’t long periods where it’s not really clear who the big guns are….the strikeout guys show up at the top year-after-year.

Which brings us to our current decade:

Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	Odds Ratio K/9
2017	AL	Chris Sale	12.83	7.88	2.20
2013	AL	Yu Darvish	11.89	7.20	2.16
2015	AL	Chris Sale	11.82	7.26	2.12
2016	NL	Jose Fernandez	12.49	7.88	2.09
2017	NL	Max Scherzer	12.35	7.91	2.03

In my last article, I wrote a little about Chris Sale. Chris Sale isn’t on par with Pedro Martinez, at least when it comes to strikeouts. But he is posting the best strikeout rate of the decade, and he’s making the case that he’s the current strikeout king in baseball, even if Kershaw or Scherzer have been better pitchers than Sale.

* * *

So what are the best strikeout seasons of all-time, according to Odds Ratio K/9 IP?

Rank	Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	OR K/9
1	1924	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.65	2.80	3.42
2	1999	AL	Pedro Martinez	13.21	5.99	3.36
3	1926	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.46	2.77	3.34
4	1925	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.50	2.84	3.27
5	1902	AL	Rube Waddell	6.84	2.54	3.27
6	1995	AL	Randy Johnson	12.35	5.75	3.11
7	1989	AL	Nolan Ryan	11.32	5.11	3.09
8	1976	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.35	4.57	3.05
9	2001	NL	Randy Johnson	13.41	6.66	3.01
10	1978	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.97	4.40	3.01

Dazzy Vance nets the top spot, and three of the top four strikeout seasons of all-time. He has a clear claim for the title of Best Strikeout Pitcher Ever.

That said, Nolan Ryan also has three slots on the top-ten, and Randy Johnson shows up twice. If we go further down our list, who gets more ticks?

11	1997	AL	Randy Johnson	12.30	6.08	2.88
12	1984	NL	Dwight Gooden	11.40	5.48	2.87
13	1973	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.57	5.01	2.83
14	1977	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.26	4.82	2.82
15	2000	NL	Randy Johnson	12.56	6.42	2.79
16	1955	AL	Herb Score	9.70	4.55	2.77
17	1926	AL	Lefty Grove	6.77	2.92	2.76
18	1987	NL	Nolan Ryan	11.48	5.74	2.74
19	1998	NL	Kerry Wood	12.58	6.53	2.74
20	2000	AL	Pedro Martinez	11.78	5.98	2.72

No Vance, but Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan both show up twice. That gives us a tally of: Ryan (5), Johnson (4), Vance (3). Going another ten:

21	1941	NL	Johnny Vander Meer	8.03	3.64	2.72
22	1974	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.93	4.78	2.70
23	1928	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.42	2.80	2.70
24	1903	AL	Rube Waddell	8.39	3.87	2.69
25	1999	NL	Randy Johnson	12.06	6.26	2.67
26	1938	AL	Bob Feller	7.78	3.58	2.65
27	1993	AL	Randy Johnson	10.86	5.47	2.65
28	1923	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.33	2.80	2.64
29	1979	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.01	4.32	2.63
30	1978	NL	J.R. Richard	9.90	4.90	2.61

All three pitchers make two appearances each. We’re at Ryan (7), Johnson (6), Vance (5).

Let’s go down to fifty, and call it a day:

31	1992	AL	Randy Johnson	10.31	5.18	2.60
32	1928	AL	George Earnshaw	6.65	3.02	2.60
33	1991	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.56	5.43	2.55
34	1962	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.55	5.48	2.52
35	1979	NL	J.R. Richard	9.64	4.88	2.52
36	1930	NL	Bill Hallahan	6.71	3.14	2.51
37	1927	AL	Lefty Grove	5.97	2.75	2.50
38	1975	AL	Frank Tanana	9.41	4.78	2.49
39	1972	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.43	5.48	2.47
40	1956	AL	Herb Score	9.49	4.88	2.46
41	1927	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.06	2.85	2.45
42	1904	AL	Rube Waddell	8.20	4.08	2.45
43	1939	AL	Bob Feller	7.46	3.65	2.44
44	1990	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.24	5.44	2.42
45	1933	NL	Dizzy Dean	6.11	2.92	2.41
46	1946	AL	Hal Newhouser	8.46	4.32	2.39
47	2002	NL	Randy Johnson	11.56	6.46	2.38
48	2002	AL	Pedro Martinez	10.79	5.91	2.38
49	1960	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.13	5.45	2.37
50	1965	AL	Sam McDowell	10.71	5.86	2.37

Nolan picks up three more seasons, Johnson gets two, and Vance gets one. Out of the top-fifty seasons, that’s Ryan (10), Johnson (8), Vance (6).

So while Vance can be credited as having the best peak strikeout seasons, Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson are ahead of him in career performance. You can pick how you’d like to rate them, but I’m sticking with Nolan, who shows up multiple times across three decades. You can’t go wrong saying ‘Nolan Ryan’ when anyone asks anything about strikeouts.

* * *

We get Vance, Pedro, Waddell, Randy, and Nolan at the top of our list…all great strikeout pitchers. Who shows up at the bottom?

Here are the ten worst seasons to lead their leagues in K/9 rates:

Rank	Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	OR K/9
234	2012	NL	Gio Gonzalez	9.35	7.28	1.43
233	1968	NL	Bill Singer	7.97	5.94	1.48
232	1940	NL	Cliff Melton	4.91	3.49	1.50
231	1913	NL	Jeff Tesreau	5.33	3.76	1.52
230	1915	AL	Dutch Leonard	5.70	3.99	1.54
229	1967	NL	Gary Nolan	8.18	5.88	1.56
228	1934	AL	Red Ruffing	5.23	3.60	1.56
227	1920	AL	Doc Ayers	4.44	3.02	1.56
226	1921	NL	Burleigh Grimes	4.05	2.73	1.57
225	1919	AL	Allen Russell	4.80	3.26	1.57

Not great pitchers. The metric does a good job of filtering the elite strikeout pitchers from guys who lucked into one or two good years in leagues with no clear competition. Gary Nolan is the outlier: he was a burner, but his arm blew out before he could have himself a career.

So that’s it. I’ve thrown enough tables at you to make you sick, so I’ll probably lay off the Excel on the next article. Big thanks to Tom Tango for introducing me to the Odds Ratio Method, and thanks to everyone who offers ideas on other ways to approach this question.

Here are all 234 pitching seasons, ordered by year and league:

Rank	Year	Lg.	Pitcher	SO9	SP K/9	OR K/9
180	1901	AL	Ned Garvin	4.27	2.58	1.78
134	1901	NL	Tom Hughes	6.57	3.83	1.94
5	1902	AL	Rube Waddell	6.84	2.54	3.27
205	1902	NL	Doc White	5.44	3.52	1.68
24	1903	AL	Rube Waddell	8.39	3.87	2.69
77	1903	NL	Christy Mathewson	6.56	3.44	2.20
42	1904	AL	Rube Waddell	8.20	4.08	2.45
174	1904	NL	Hooks Wiltse	5.74	3.54	1.79
67	1905	AL	Rube Waddell	7.86	4.19	2.24
88	1905	NL	Red Ames	6.78	3.65	2.15
137	1906	AL	Rube Waddell	6.47	3.77	1.94
94	1906	NL	Red Ames	6.91	3.76	2.12
52	1907	AL	Rube Waddell	7.34	3.67	2.37
188	1907	NL	Red Ames	5.63	3.51	1.76
91	1908	AL	Rube Waddell	7.31	3.99	2.14
61	1908	NL	Orval Overall	6.68	3.37	2.31
222	1909	AL	Heinie Berger	5.90	4.02	1.60
105	1909	NL	Orval Overall	6.47	3.58	2.06
93	1910	AL	Walter Johnson	7.61	4.21	2.13
138	1910	NL	Louis Drucke	6.31	3.68	1.93
99	1911	AL	Smoky Joe Wood	7.54	4.19	2.11
54	1911	NL	Rube Marquard	7.68	3.90	2.36
111	1912	AL	Walter Johnson	7.39	4.24	2.02
219	1912	NL	Pete Alexander	5.66	3.81	1.61
193	1913	AL	Walter Johnson	6.32	4.01	1.75
231	1913	NL	Jeff Tesreau	5.33	3.76	1.52
128	1914	AL	Dutch Leonard	7.05	4.12	1.96
159	1914	NL	Ben Tincup	6.27	3.80	1.85
230	1915	AL	Dutch Leonard	5.70	3.99	1.54
211	1915	NL	Pete Alexander	5.76	3.78	1.67
221	1916	AL	Walter Johnson	5.55	3.76	1.60
212	1916	NL	Larry Cheney	5.91	3.89	1.66
203	1917	AL	Walter Johnson	5.19	3.34	1.69
164	1917	NL	Hippo Vaughn	5.94	3.60	1.83
131	1918	AL	Guy Morton	5.16	2.91	1.95
194	1918	NL	Hippo Vaughn	4.59	2.83	1.75
225	1919	AL	Allen Russell	4.80	3.26	1.57
168	1919	NL	Hod Eller	4.97	2.98	1.82
227	1920	AL	Doc Ayers	4.44	3.02	1.56
181	1920	NL	Al Mamaux	4.77	2.91	1.78
186	1921	AL	Walter Johnson	4.88	2.99	1.77
226	1921	NL	Burleigh Grimes	4.05	2.73	1.57
209	1922	AL	Guy Morton	4.53	2.90	1.68
114	1922	NL	Dazzy Vance	4.91	2.69	2.01
196	1923	AL	Syl Johnson	4.75	2.96	1.73
28	1923	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.33	2.80	2.64
92	1924	AL	Walter Johnson	5.12	2.67	2.13
1	1924	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.65	2.80	3.42
76	1925	AL	Lefty Grove	5.30	2.70	2.20
4	1925	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.50	2.84	3.27
17	1926	AL	Lefty Grove	6.77	2.92	2.76
3	1926	NL	Dazzy Vance	7.46	2.77	3.34
37	1927	AL	Lefty Grove	5.97	2.75	2.50
41	1927	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.06	2.85	2.45
32	1928	AL	George Earnshaw	6.65	3.02	2.60
23	1928	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.42	2.80	2.70
106	1929	AL	Lefty Grove	5.56	3.02	2.06
73	1929	NL	Pat Malone	5.60	2.86	2.21
75	1930	AL	Lefty Grove	6.46	3.38	2.20
36	1930	NL	Bill Hallahan	6.71	3.14	2.51
83	1931	AL	Bump Hadley	6.21	3.25	2.18
66	1931	NL	Dazzy Vance	6.17	3.16	2.24
59	1932	AL	Red Ruffing	6.60	3.32	2.31
81	1932	NL	Dizzy Dean	6.01	3.12	2.19
87	1933	AL	Lefty Gomez	6.25	3.32	2.15
45	1933	NL	Dizzy Dean	6.11	2.92	2.41
228	1934	AL	Red Ruffing	5.23	3.60	1.56
176	1934	NL	Paul Dean	5.79	3.58	1.78
95	1935	AL	Johnny Allen	6.09	3.26	2.12
115	1935	NL	Van Mungo	6.01	3.37	2.01
104	1936	AL	Johnny Allen	6.11	3.34	2.07
58	1936	NL	Van Mungo	6.87	3.45	2.33
144	1937	AL	Lefty Gomez	6.27	3.70	1.91
102	1937	NL	Van Mungo	6.82	3.76	2.09
26	1938	AL	Bob Feller	7.78	3.58	2.65
202	1938	NL	Carl Hubbell	5.23	3.35	1.70
43	1939	AL	Bob Feller	7.46	3.65	2.44
179	1939	NL	Mort Cooper	5.55	3.43	1.78
80	1940	AL	Bob Feller	7.33	3.92	2.20
232	1940	NL	Cliff Melton	4.91	3.49	1.50
84	1941	AL	Bob Feller	6.82	3.62	2.18
21	1941	NL	Johnny Vander Meer	8.03	3.64	2.72
223	1942	AL	Hal Newhouser	5.05	3.40	1.60
57	1942	NL	Johnny Vander Meer	6.86	3.44	2.33
72	1943	AL	Allie Reynolds	6.84	3.59	2.21
171	1943	NL	Johnny Vander Meer	5.42	3.29	1.81
197	1944	AL	Hal Newhouser	5.39	3.41	1.73
130	1944	NL	Max Lanier	5.66	3.22	1.96
122	1945	AL	Hal Newhouser	6.09	3.45	1.99
117	1945	NL	Preacher Roe	5.67	3.17	2.00
46	1946	AL	Hal Newhouser	8.46	4.32	2.39
192	1946	NL	Kirby Higbe	5.73	3.59	1.75
200	1947	AL	Bob Feller	5.90	3.79	1.71
145	1947	NL	Ewell Blackwell	6.36	3.76	1.91
160	1948	AL	Lou Brissie	5.89	3.56	1.84
220	1948	NL	Harry Brecheen	5.75	3.89	1.61
170	1949	AL	Tommy Byrne	5.92	3.62	1.82
214	1949	NL	Don Newcombe	5.49	3.62	1.65
182	1950	AL	Early Wynn	6.02	3.76	1.77
191	1950	NL	Ewell Blackwell	6.48	4.12	1.75
107	1951	AL	Mickey McDermott	6.65	3.72	2.04
146	1951	NL	Mel Queen	6.58	3.91	1.90
201	1952	AL	Mickey McDermott	6.50	4.22	1.71
163	1952	NL	Vinegar Bend Mizell	6.92	4.27	1.83
206	1953	AL	Billy Pierce	6.17	4.04	1.68
183	1953	NL	Vinegar Bend Mizell	6.94	4.41	1.77
129	1954	AL	Billy Pierce	7.06	4.13	1.96
199	1954	NL	Harvey Haddix	6.38	4.11	1.72
16	1955	AL	Herb Score	9.70	4.55	2.77
142	1955	NL	Sam Jones	7.37	4.44	1.91
40	1956	AL	Herb Score	9.49	4.88	2.46
63	1956	NL	Sam Jones	8.40	4.50	2.26
156	1957	AL	Bob Turley	7.76	4.80	1.86
167	1957	NL	Sam Jones	7.59	4.77	1.82
208	1958	AL	Camilo Pascual	7.41	4.97	1.68
151	1958	NL	Sam Jones	8.10	5.02	1.88
113	1959	AL	Herb Score	8.23	4.84	2.01
187	1959	NL	Don Drysdale	8.05	5.23	1.77
204	1960	AL	Jim Bunning	7.18	4.78	1.68
49	1960	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.13	5.45	2.37
116	1961	AL	Juan Pizarro	8.69	5.17	2.00
79	1961	NL	Sandy Koufax	9.47	5.33	2.20
210	1962	AL	Juan Pizarro	7.66	5.17	1.67
34	1962	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.55	5.48	2.52
161	1963	AL	Al Downing	8.76	5.60	1.84
120	1963	NL	Jim Maloney	9.53	5.81	1.99
166	1964	AL	Sam McDowell	9.19	5.94	1.83
148	1964	NL	Sandy Koufax	9.00	5.65	1.89
50	1965	AL	Sam McDowell	10.71	5.86	2.37
74	1965	NL	Sandy Koufax	10.24	5.87	2.20
62	1966	AL	Sam McDowell	10.42	5.86	2.27
172	1966	NL	Sandy Koufax	8.83	5.76	1.79
185	1967	AL	Luis Tiant	9.23	6.12	1.77
229	1967	NL	Gary Nolan	8.18	5.88	1.56
143	1968	AL	Sam McDowell	9.47	5.96	1.91
233	1968	NL	Bill Singer	7.97	5.94	1.48
150	1969	AL	Sam McDowell	8.81	5.52	1.89
157	1969	NL	Tom Griffin	9.56	6.16	1.85
139	1970	AL	Sam McDowell	8.97	5.54	1.93
198	1970	NL	Tom Seaver	8.76	5.89	1.72
127	1971	AL	Vida Blue	8.68	5.24	1.97
110	1971	NL	Tom Seaver	9.08	5.39	2.03
39	1972	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.43	5.48	2.47
178	1972	NL	Tom Seaver	8.55	5.58	1.78
13	1973	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.57	5.01	2.83
213	1973	NL	Tom Seaver	7.79	5.33	1.65
22	1974	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.93	4.78	2.70
207	1974	NL	Tom Seaver	7.67	5.15	1.68
38	1975	AL	Frank Tanana	9.41	4.78	2.49
169	1975	NL	John Montefusco	7.94	5.04	1.82
8	1976	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.35	4.57	3.05
154	1976	NL	Tom Seaver	7.80	4.82	1.87
14	1977	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.26	4.82	2.82
217	1977	NL	Jerry Koosman	7.62	5.27	1.62
10	1978	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.97	4.40	3.01
30	1978	NL	J.R. Richard	9.90	4.90	2.61
29	1979	AL	Nolan Ryan	9.01	4.32	2.63
35	1979	NL	J.R. Richard	9.64	4.88	2.52
190	1980	AL	Len Barker	6.83	4.36	1.76
90	1980	NL	Mario Soto	8.61	4.84	2.14
118	1981	AL	Dave Righetti	7.60	4.43	2.00
101	1981	NL	Steve Carlton	8.48	4.85	2.09
98	1982	AL	Dave Righetti	8.02	4.50	2.11
56	1982	NL	Mario Soto	9.57	5.14	2.34
112	1983	AL	Floyd Bannister	7.99	4.66	2.02
141	1983	NL	Steve Carlton	8.73	5.38	1.92
135	1984	AL	Mark Langston	8.16	4.92	1.94
12	1984	NL	Dwight Gooden	11.40	5.48	2.87
124	1985	AL	Floyd Bannister	8.46	5.07	1.97
69	1985	NL	Sid Fernandez	9.51	5.29	2.23
133	1986	AL	Mark Langston	9.21	5.67	1.95
89	1986	NL	Mike Scott	10.00	5.81	2.15
195	1987	AL	Mark Langston	8.67	5.76	1.74
18	1987	NL	Nolan Ryan	11.48	5.74	2.74
51	1988	AL	Roger Clemens	9.92	5.31	2.37
100	1988	NL	Nolan Ryan	9.33	5.44	2.09
7	1989	AL	Nolan Ryan	11.32	5.11	3.09
147	1989	NL	Mark Langston	8.92	5.57	1.90
44	1990	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.24	5.44	2.42
64	1990	NL	David Cone	9.91	5.53	2.25
33	1991	AL	Nolan Ryan	10.56	5.43	2.55
125	1991	NL	David Cone	9.32	5.70	1.97
31	1992	AL	Randy Johnson	10.31	5.18	2.60
71	1992	NL	David Cone	9.79	5.51	2.22
27	1993	AL	Randy Johnson	10.86	5.47	2.65
218	1993	NL	Jose Rijo	7.94	5.52	1.62
53	1994	AL	Randy Johnson	10.67	5.85	2.36
123	1994	NL	Andy Benes	9.87	6.08	1.98
6	1995	AL	Randy Johnson	12.35	5.75	3.11
60	1995	NL	Hideo Nomo	11.10	6.27	2.31
126	1996	AL	Roger Clemens	9.53	5.86	1.97
165	1996	NL	John Smoltz	9.79	6.40	1.83
11	1997	AL	Randy Johnson	12.30	6.08	2.88
65	1997	NL	Pedro Martinez	11.37	6.61	2.25
96	1998	AL	Roger Clemens	10.39	6.16	2.12
19	1998	NL	Kerry Wood	12.58	6.53	2.74
2	1999	AL	Pedro Martinez	13.21	5.99	3.36
25	1999	NL	Randy Johnson	12.06	6.26	2.67
20	2000	AL	Pedro Martinez	11.78	5.98	2.72
15	2000	NL	Randy Johnson	12.56	6.42	2.79
108	2001	AL	Hideo Nomo	10.00	6.04	2.04
9	2001	NL	Randy Johnson	13.41	6.66	3.01
48	2002	AL	Pedro Martinez	10.79	5.91	2.38
47	2002	NL	Randy Johnson	11.56	6.46	2.38
82	2003	AL	Pedro Martinez	9.93	5.67	2.19
55	2003	NL	Kerry Wood	11.35	6.39	2.34
70	2004	AL	Johan Santana	10.46	5.97	2.23
85	2004	NL	Oliver Perez	10.98	6.46	2.18
140	2005	AL	Johan Santana	9.25	5.76	1.92
121	2005	NL	Mark Prior	10.15	6.28	1.99
158	2006	AL	Johan Santana	9.44	6.07	1.85
175	2006	NL	Jake Peavy	9.56	6.34	1.79
68	2007	AL	Erik Bedard	10.93	6.30	2.23
162	2007	NL	Jake Peavy	9.67	6.30	1.83
177	2008	AL	A.J. Burnett	9.39	6.22	1.78
136	2008	NL	Tim Lincecum	10.51	6.67	1.94
149	2009	AL	Justin Verlander	10.09	6.49	1.89
155	2009	NL	Tim Lincecum	10.43	6.80	1.87
189	2010	AL	Jon Lester	9.74	6.55	1.76
216	2010	NL	Tim Lincecum	9.79	6.96	1.64
152	2011	AL	Brandon Morrow	10.19	6.60	1.87
153	2011	NL	Zack Greinke	10.54	6.88	1.87
119	2012	AL	Max Scherzer	11.08	6.99	1.99
234	2012	NL	Gio Gonzalez	9.35	7.28	1.43
86	2013	AL	Yu Darvish	11.89	7.20	2.16
224	2013	NL	A.J. Burnett	9.85	7.19	1.58
184	2014	AL	Chris Sale	10.76	7.35	1.77
173	2014	NL	Clayton Kershaw	10.85	7.36	1.79
97	2015	AL	Chris Sale	11.82	7.26	2.12
132	2015	NL	Clayton Kershaw	11.64	7.55	1.95
215	2016	AL	Michael Pineda	10.61	7.63	1.64
103	2016	NL	Jose Fernandez	12.49	7.88	2.09
78	2017	AL	Chris Sale	12.83	7.88	2.20
109	2017	NL	Max Scherzer	12.35	7.91	2.03

Dave Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.

COMMENTS (6 Comments, most recent shown first)

Brock Hanke
In general, this is a really good article, and far better than I could have done. I do want to quibble about Rube Waddell. I think that the stories about Waddell are probably true, and that Waddell is more similar to Steve Dalkowski than anyone else. Dalkowski, as almost everyone here knows, was a strikeout machine in the minors with the O's. Earl Weaver spent one year managing him, realized that he didn't have the mental capacity to manage throwing multiple pitch types, told him to forget about the curve ball and just bring the heat, and, if Dalko had stayed with Weaver as Earl progressed up the ladder, he would probably have been a great major league strikeout pitcher. Waddell is what happens when the minors aren't so developed, so Connie Mack signs you when you're already ready for the bigs.

Years ago, in one of the Abstracts, Bill mentioned a guy he worked with in a rail yard. The guy wasn't very bright so he tried to solve all problems with muscle first. This wasn't always the best approach, but the side effect was that the guy was VERY strong, because he used his muscles for everything. I think that's probably Dalko and Waddell, both. They were just the two who started out with major league arms at birth.

I also am inclined to argue that Waddell was the best strikeout pitcher of the century, because of the era he played in. In Waddell's time, EVERYONE bunted, pretty much all the time. In general, bunting is a great answer to a pitcher whose speed you can't hit. After 1920, people didn't bunt so much. So Waddell was facing competition that was much better equipped to handle superhuman speed than anyone after, say, Walter Johnson. Johnson has more seasons where he led leagues, but they were not consecutive, like Waddell's were. So Johnson was a MUCH better pitcher, but just looking at K's, I'd go with Waddell.
5:35 AM Aug 29th

DaveFleming
That's a good point, Tom, that you can make K/9 into a percentage. I stuck with K/9 for two reasons:

1. BB-Ref has a nice list of the yearly leaders in K/9 that I could use as a data set (my current laptop has a memory capacity in negative gigabytes), and,

2. K/9 just seems a clearer illustration of what I wanted to think about, which is that there is a context around the 'ceiling' or 'limit' of a metric that I never really thought about, and hadn't ever attempted to adjust for before. Somehow, understanding the difference between 3 of 27 outs and 9 out of 27 outs was clearer in my head than 11% K% versus 33% K%. But that's just me.

I did run a few guys through the system by K%, and it seemed to draw similar results (vance, Pedro, Randy, etc.) I admit that it might be the more accurate metric, overall.

* * *

That said...and this is just an aside to the pitching stuff....I think sometimes we give the 'rate' stuff a bit too much credit.

For example: I've sometimes used an offensive player's 162-game average instead of looking at their 'per 600 plate appearances'. To me, that difference is important...if you have two teammates who have the same exact skills as hitters, but one guy gets 50 extra plate appearances a year because his manager trusts him to hit a little higher in the lineup, I think that should be reflected somewhat. Using 'per 600' erases that detail a bit, while using 'per 162' doesn't.

I'm not saying that I'm right on this....it's just something I think about from time to time. There's something about pure percentages that seems to wash away the complexity of what we're talking about, at least for me.

But thanks for the help with this one, and your feedback!
5:34 PM Aug 25th

tangotiger
Note you can make this K/9IP as a percentage, by simply saying K per outs. If you K 10 per 9 IP you have 10 K in 27 outs. So, the percentage of outs that are K is 37%.

It doesn't change the math, but we don't have to talk about "ceilings". It's purely "percentages", which is what odds are about, success per opportunity.

Anyway, it gets the point clearer: do you care about percentage of outs that are K or percentage of batters faced that are K?

I HUGELY prefer K/PA.
1:01 PM Aug 25th

JackKeefe
I mentioned that park factors were important, particularly when discussing Dazzy Vance as a strikeout artist. Ebbets Field in the 20's was constructed so that you could see the apartment buildings just beyond the centerfield fence, where people used to hang their wash. Dazzy Vance used to wear very loose fitting shirtsleeves cut at the elbow that would flap like laundry when he pitched, making it extremely difficult to pick up the ball against that backdrop. I didn't do any of Chuck's research though. I didn't mention it earlier, but I think somebody once found that Dazzy pitched poorly at Ebbets Field on days where there was inclement weather, because those were days when folks took their laundry in. So the park was a big factor.
3:11 AM Aug 25th

chuck
That's too bad. I deleted my own version, as I thought "well, it's there online if I want it." I did list some home and road splits for K rates and also went into how Brooklyn's 3-year strikeout park factor, according to Seamheads, was 113 in 1924.

It was an extremely high 126 for the single year park factor. I didn't save the numbers sheet I worked from either, but off the top of my head, Vance's home/road ratio for K/9 was something like 149 (1.49, with the decimal removed).
2 of the other main starters had high ratios also, with Bill Doak's much higher than Vance's even. And the rest of the Dodger pitchers under 120 innings, taken as a group, had a ratio the same as Vance's.

I think Jack Keefe brought this topic up, and I can't remember who mentioned about the shirtsleeves in Brooklyn. Brooklyn's 113 strikeout park factor in 1924... the next highest was the Cubs, I think, well down at 104.
9:54 PM Aug 24th

DaveFleming
Hey guys...this article ended up getting double posted, and then I wound up deleting the entire chat stream. That was all my fault, and I'm really sorry.

One of you posted something REALLY interesting about Vance and shirtsleeves and home-road k-rates, which I was intending to respond to, and a few others posted some terrific avenues going forward. Please re-post them, if you're willing!

On the positive side, I've fixed the big typos in the original. So that's...something.
8:23 PM Aug 24th

The Greatest Strikeout Seasons Ever

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