At this moment in the 2012 baseball season, the Baltimore Orioles have a 65-70 record, which has them in the basement of the American League East, looking up at the first place battle raging between the Yankees and Rays. The Red Sox are at exactly .500. Even the Blue Jays, absent Bautista and Lawrie, are the bird-pride of the division.
At least, that’s how it should be, based on the number of runs scored and runs allowed in the division. The hitting-heavy Yankees have averaged 4.8 runs scored per game, and have allowed 4.1 The pitching-deep Rays have a 4.2/3.6 split. The Red Sox are holding steady at 4.9/4.9…
The Orioles have allowed 4.5 runs per game. They have scored just 4.2 runs per game. Based on Pythagorean expectation, the Orioles should be five games under .500, battling the Blue Jays for last place.
Baltimore’s actual win-loss record is 76-59. They are currently seventeen games over .500. At this moment, they’re in a first-place tie with the Yankees.
The Baltimore team is out-performing their expected win-loss record by eleven games. This has raised a number of questions. I’ll tackle some of them here.
Question 1: How rare is this, exactly?
Very rare. Since we’ve had two major leagues, only nineteen teams have posted a win-loss record ten games better than their expected/Pythagorean win-loss record.
Nineteen teams, or one team every six years or so.
Question 2: Can you list them?
Sure…
|
Year
|
Team
|
W-L
|
Pyth W-L
|
|
2009
|
Mariners
|
85-77
|
+10
|
|
2008
|
Angels
|
100-62
|
+12
|
|
2007
|
D'Backs
|
90-72
|
+11
|
|
2005
|
D'Backs
|
77-85
|
+11
|
|
2004
|
Yankees
|
101-61
|
+12
|
|
1997
|
Giants
|
90-72
|
+10
|
|
1984
|
Mets
|
90-72
|
+12
|
|
1972
|
Mets
|
82-73
|
+11
|
|
1970
|
Reds
|
102-60
|
+11
|
|
1961
|
Reds
|
93-61
|
+10
|
|
1955
|
Athletics
|
63-91
|
+10
|
|
1954
|
Dodgers
|
92-62
|
+11
|
|
1943
|
Braves
|
68-85
|
+10
|
|
1936
|
Cardinals
|
87-67
|
+10
|
|
1932
|
Pirates
|
86-68
|
+10
|
|
1931
|
Athletics
|
107-45
|
+10
|
|
1924
|
Dodgers
|
92-62
|
+11
|
|
1917
|
Cardinals
|
82-70
|
+11
|
|
1905
|
Tigers
|
79-74
|
+14
|
We’ll talk about a few of these teams later on down the page.
Question 3: The Orioles are trying to reach the playoffs. How many of these teams reached the playoffs? How many finished first?
We’ll split them up….two teams did terrible,despite their drastically better-than-expected win-loss record:
|
Year
|
Team
|
Finish
|
|
1955
|
Athletics
|
6th
|
|
1943
|
Braves
|
6th
|
It’s remarkable that these teams managed to be terrible despite a drastically better-than-they-deserved win-loss record. It’s hard to be terrible and lucky: the 1955 A’s and the 1943 Braves pulled it off.
Ten of the teams finished second or third….not quite first, but generally in contention:
|
Year
|
Team
|
Finish
|
|
2009
|
Mariners
|
3rd
|
|
2005
|
D'Backs
|
2nd
|
|
1984
|
Mets
|
2nd
|
|
1972
|
Mets
|
2nd
|
|
1954
|
Dodgers
|
2nd
|
|
1936
|
Cardinals
|
2nd
|
|
1932
|
Pirates
|
2nd
|
|
1924
|
Dodgers
|
2nd
|
|
1917
|
Cardinals
|
3rd
|
|
1905
|
Tigers
|
3rd
|
Which leaves seven teams that finished in first place:
|
Year
|
Team
|
Finish
|
|
2008
|
Angels
|
1st
|
|
2007
|
D'Backs
|
1st
|
|
2004
|
Yankees
|
1st
|
|
1997
|
Giants
|
1st
|
|
1970
|
Reds
|
1st
|
|
1961
|
Reds
|
1st
|
|
1931
|
Athletics
|
1st
|
Question 4: How did those first-place teams do in the postseason? Did they win the World Series? If they came along in the Championship or Division Series eras, did they advance?
They did badly.
|
Year
|
Team
|
First Round
|
Second Round
|
|
2008
|
Angels
|
Lost ALDS, 3-1 (Red Sox)
|
**
|
|
2007
|
D'Backs
|
Won NLDS, 3-0 (Cubs)
|
Lost NLCS, 4-0 (Rockies)
|
|
2004
|
Yankees
|
Won ALDS, 3-1 (Twins)
|
Lost ALCS, 4-3 (Red Sox)
|
|
1997
|
Giants
|
Lost NLDS, 3-0 (Marlins)
|
**
|
|
1970
|
Reds
|
Won NLCS, 3-0 (Pirates)
|
Lost World Series, 4-1 (Orioles)
|
|
1961
|
Reds
|
Lost World Series, 4-1 (Yankees)
|
**
|
|
1931
|
Athletics
|
Lost World Series, 4-3 (Cardinals)
|
**
|
Two teams reached the World Series prior to the division split….both teams lost their matchup.
The 1970 Reds won the NLCS in a clean sweep over the Pirates….they were the first +10 Pythagorean team to win a series. They lost the World Series.
Of the four +10 Pythagorean teams from the Wild Card era, two won their Division Series matchups (2004 Yankees and 2007 Diamondbacks). Both teams lost in the Championship Series.
Question 5: What about the years to come? Does a really high ‘luck’ factor translate to contention in future years, or do teams that exceed their expected win-loss records tend to drop out of the pennant race?
I thought the answer would be the second one: that teams that contended with a high ‘luck’ factor tended to drop off.
The Orioles will obviously finish over .500 this year…leaving out the sub-.500 teams that notched at least ten more wins than their run differential suggested, we have sixteen teams to look at. So we’re not looking at long tables, I’ll split them up into pre- and post-Division era groups.
Starting with the old +10 Pythagorean teams:
|
Year
|
Team
|
Finish
|
1 Year Later
|
2 Years Later
|
3 Years Later
|
4 Years Later
|
|
1905
|
Tigers
|
3rd
|
6th
|
1st, Lost WS
|
1st, Lost WS
|
1st, Lost WS
|
|
1917
|
Cardinals
|
3rd
|
8th
|
7th
|
5th
|
3rd
|
|
1924
|
Dodgers
|
2nd
|
6th
|
6th
|
6th
|
6th
|
|
1931
|
Athletics
|
1st
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
5th
|
8th
|
|
1932
|
Pirates
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
5th
|
4th
|
4th
|
|
1936
|
Cardinals
|
2nd
|
4th
|
6th
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
|
1954
|
Dodgers
|
2nd
|
1st, Won WS
|
1st, Lost WS
|
3rd
|
8th
|
|
1961
|
Reds
|
1st
|
3rd
|
5th
|
2nd
|
4th
|
Only two of the eight teams reached the World Series in the four-year window after their ‘luck’ seasons:
The 1905 Tigers went on to reach the World Series in three consecutive years, losing in 1907-1909. The 1905 team had an eighteen-year old backup outfielder who hit .240 over 41 games. Two years later, at age 20, that same kid led the league in batting average and stolen bases, winning the first of eleven batting titles. His name was Mike Trout Ty Cobb.
The 1954 Dodgers were a famous team: they won the 1955 World Series over the Yankees, and lost the 1956 Series. (This is a question unrelated to anything else: I could name five starting players on that team….five of the eight. Snider, Campy, Robinson, Hodges, Reese. I bet most semi-knowledgeable fans could name that many. How many teams is this true for?
I could only do four for the 1927 Yankees: Ruth, Gehrig, Lazzeri and Combs (I missed Bob Meusel). I thought I’d do well on the 1961 Yankees, but they didn’t have Rizzuto or Martin then. I got Mantle, Maris, Berra, and Howard.
The Big Red Machine have to be the champs: Morgan, Rose, and Bench are the big names; George Foster, Tony Perez, Ken Griffey and Dave Concepcion came easy enough. What are the other teams that a casual fan can list the majority of lineup card?)
Okay…digression over. Back to the chart.
Two of the eight teams reached the World Series. But other teams had successful seasons in the years following their ‘luck’ seasons:
-The 1933 Pirates, fresh off a +10 season, managed to against finish second in 1933, five games behind the Giants. They had another positive luck score (+5), but they were a contending team.
-The 1939 Cardinals, three years removed from a +10 season, finished just 4.5 games back of the Reds, also in second place. With a core of Johnny Mize, Ducky Medwick, and Enos Slaughter, this team was as good as their record suggested (+1 luck score). It was Medwick’s last good season, but Stan Musial was coming around the corner.
-Lastly, the 1964 Reds went down the wire for the NL pennant, losing the race on the last day of the season, and finishing in a tie for second place, a single game behind the Cardinals. The Reds were a luck-neutral team in 1964, while the Cardinals were +5. Pete Rose stole four bases in fourteen attempts.
In the pre-Division Series era, five of the eight teams contended for a spot in the World Series, in the four year-window following their ‘luck’ seasons.
Looking at the eight Division Era teams:
|
Year
|
Team
|
Finish
|
1 Year Later
|
2 Years Later
|
3 Years Later
|
4 Years Later
|
|
1970
|
Reds
|
1st
|
4th
|
1st, Lost WS
|
1st, Lost NLCS
|
2nd
|
|
1972
|
Mets
|
2nd
|
1st, Lost WS
|
5th
|
3rd
|
3rd
|
|
1984
|
Mets
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
1st, Won WS
|
2nd
|
1st, lost NLCS
|
|
1997
|
Giants
|
1st
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
1st, Lost NLDS
|
2nd
|
|
2004
|
Yankees
|
1st
|
1st, Lost ALDS
|
1st, Lost ALDS
|
2nd, Lost ALDS
|
3rd
|
|
2007
|
D'Backs
|
1st
|
2nd
|
5th
|
5th
|
1st, Lost NLCS
|
|
2008
|
Angels
|
1st
|
1st, Lost ALCS
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
|
2009
|
Mariners
|
3rd
|
4th
|
4th
|
4th (?)
|
n/a
|
All of these teams reached the playoffs again.
Well…not all of them. The 2009 Seattle Mariners didn’t reach the playoffs in 2010 or 2011, and they probably won’t in 2012. We’ll see how 2013 plays out before we write them off.
But the other seven teams all reached the playoffs in the four-year window following their ‘lucky’ season.
Granted, this is partially because it’s easier to reach the playoffs now. In the Division Era, four teams reached the playoffs every year. In the Wild Card era, it’s been eight teams (and it’ll go up to ten this year).
It’s interesting that two of these teams are ‘dynasty’ teams, the teams of their decade: the Big Red Machine lost the 1972 World Series, but they won in 1975 and 1976, and were in contention in nine of the ten seasons of the decade.
The other dynasty team is the New York Mets. Despite having only one championship to show for it, the Amazings were a terrific team from 1984 thru 1990, finishing first or second in the NL East every year. In a decade where no team managed two World Series victories, we’ll give ‘em the nod.
Bottom line: teams that have really ‘lucky’ seasons tend to go from ‘lucky’ to ‘really good’ in subsequent years. Good news for Orioles fans.
Question 6: Do you think the Orioles are building a dynasty?
Well…maybe. I doubt it.
I’m really happy for the Orioles and their fans: Baltimore’s had a rough string of years in the AL East, and it’s fun to see them make a Cinderella run this year. I’ve been waiting for them to fall back to the pack all year; instead they’ve been surging. I’m rooting for the O’s.
But the core of the current team isn’t great. The offense relies heavily on homeruns: the hitters are ranked 11th in the American League in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has an ERA a few ticks ahead of the league average (4.01 to 4.08), but the six relief pitchers with sub-3.00 ERA’s have a lot to do with that.
The best Orioles this season, according to b-WAR, are starter Wei-Yin Chen (2.8), relief pitcher Pedro Strop (2.8), outfielder Adam Jones (2.6), catcher Matt Wieters (2.3), and shortstop J.J. Hardy (2.2). Nick Markakis is having a typical Nick Markakis season (.300 batting average) and Chris Davis has an outside shot of reaching 30 homeruns. It’s a young (though not drastically young) group of players, but only Jones and Wieters are likely to get MVP votes in the coming years.
The Orioles minor league system has some interesting players: Manny Machado is already in the major leagues, and Dylan Bundy has been excellent in AA (2.08 ERA, 10.3 K/9 in A/AA ball). But it’s a shallow minor league system, probably not one of the top-fifteen in baseball.
The starting pitching is interesting: Chris Tillman, who entered the season with a 5.58 ERA, has posted a 7-2 record this year, along with a staff-best 3.29 ERA (in short playing time). Chen and Jason Hammel have been effective. If former first-round pick Brian Matusz can turn around a disappointing career, an optimist could imagine the Orioles trying to build a perennial contender around a deep pitching staff. But with the (better) Bundy brother still a year from the majors, it’s unlikely that the Orioles pitching staff will jump ahead of the Rays and Yankees rotations.
But they’re doing something special now: they’re winning. Against all expectations, the Orioles are tied for first place in the AL East. Here’s hoping the luck stays with them.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.