A month or so ago I wrote a series of three articles called "Disappointments and Surprises", about rookies who either (a) didn’t have the careers we would have expected them to have, based on their rookie seasons, or (b) had far better careers than we would have expected them to have.  I had promised to make that a four-part article, the last part summarizing the rookies of 2018, but I didn’t get that done until now.  This is the fourth part of the series. 

              This series is about position players only, not including pitchers.  The series began by outlining a method to project the probable career value of a rookie, based on his age and his rookie-season performance.  This article applies those formulas to the 2018 rookies.

              First we have to identify the group.   The list here is all players who had 200 or more plate appearances as rookies in 2018.   There were 42 such players.   This is how they project, based on my formulas:

              42.  Hunter Dozier, Royals Infielder.  A big first baseman/third baseman, he was a near-regular but hit just .229 with a .278 on base percentage.  26 years old, 27 at the end of the season.  Defensively rated poor at both positions.   1 Win Share and negative 1.3 WAR.   A right-handed hitter, he held his own against right-handed pitchers, but didn’t hit lefties.  Hit .136 with runners in scoring position (11 for 81).   Expectation:  32 Career Win Shares in the major leagues. 

              41.  Ronny Rodriguez, Tigers second baseman.  26 years old, 2 Win Shares, negative .9 WAR.   Expectation:  36 Career Win Shares in the major leagues.

A decent minor league hitter, Rodriguez signed with the Indians at the end of the 2010 and was making good progress through the minors until he failed in his first year at Double-A, 2014.   He started hitting again in 2015 but didn’t figure in the Indians’ plans, and became a minor league free agent after the 2017 season.   Signing with Detroit, he hit .338 with 9 homers in 63 games at Toledo, and was in the majors the second half of the season, actually I think up and down a couple of times.  He has played more than 1,000 games in the minor leagues.

              Rodriguez hit just .220 in the majors with a .256 on base percentage.  Obviously he has to hit better, and obviously, as a 26-year-old rookie who was allowed to walk a year ago, he doesn’t project as an All Star.  But I’d be careful in saying that he isn’t.   He has hit consistently fairly well in the minors except for one season, and his low WAR in 2018 is influenced by poor defensive values at shortstop, third base and first base.   At his natural defensive position, second base, his defensive numbers were pretty good.   If they put him at second base and leave him alone it is possible he will hit .260-.280 with double figure home runs, and he could stick.  No notable speed and bad strikeout/walk data.

              40.  Johnny Field, Twins outfielder now with the Cubs (post-season).  26 years old, 3 Win Shares, 0.3 WAR.  Expectation:  36 career Win Shares in the major leagues. 

              A fifth-round draft pick by the Indians in 2013, he jostled around the Cleveland system for several seasons, hitting around .270 and never hitting more than 14 homers in a season.   He has been waived three times since July of this year, first by the Indians to the Rays, then by the Rays to the Twins, then by the Twins to the Cubs.   In the majors he hit .222 in 221 at bats or .221 in 222 at bats, I forget which, and had a 72-7 strikeout/walk ratio, but played OK in the field and hit 9 home runs. 

              39.  Christian Villanueva, Padres third baseman released post-season.  27 years old, 9 Win Shares, 1.8 WAR.   Expectation:  38 Career Win Shares in the Major Leagues.  I heard that he had signed with Japan, although Baseball Reference doesn’t say that at the moment.  Anyway, he’s another Launch Angle Idiot, hit 20 home runs with the Padres at the cost of a ghastly strikeout/walk ratio, but played well at third base.   With 1.8 WAR he ranked fifth on the team, and some people feel that the Padres made a mistake in letting him go. 

              38.  Tyler Austin, Twins first baseman-DH.  26 years old, 6 Win Shares, 0.5 WAR.  Expectation:  41 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.  In the Yankees’ minor league system seemingly forever, he could never get in a full season because of injuries, but hit for an OK average and with reasonable on base percentages and strikeout/walk ratios. He was traded in mid-season to the Twins as part of the Lance Lynn package. Having run out of time as a minor leaguer, he seemingly was bitten by the launch angle bug, and hit 17 homers in 69 games in the majors, but drew only 19 walks.   His OPS in the majors was .767, so he will have a major league career if he can just make marginal improvements in the on-base categories.

              37.  Daniel Palka, White Sox outfielder.  26 years old, 10 Win Shares, 0.6 WAR.   Expectation:  43 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.   He hit 27 homers as a rookie and had a 111 OPS+, so he cannot be regarded as a failure.    Otherwise he is the same story as all the other guys on this list up to this point:  signed a long time ago (2013) by another organization (Arizona), was traded by Arizona to Minnesota, claimed by the White Sox off of waivers.   He’s another launch angle guy; there’s a million of them and I don’t want them, but he is a little bit different in that that’s been his game for a long time, and he does have some chance to hit 40 bombs a year and stay around for a few years.  

              36.  Rosell Herrera, Royals outfielder-infielder.   25 years old, 3 Win Shares, 0.9 WAR.  Expectation:  44 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.    Hit .234 as a rookie with 1 home run, giving him a .602 OPS.  Switch hitter; was a prospect in the Rockies system after he had a big year in the South Atlantic League in 2013, but never progressed.  Used by the Royals mostly in the outfield, he doesn’t have the power or speed to indicate a successful major league outfielder, but in the minors he would walk 60+ times a year with less than 100 strikeouts.   Like all of these players (so far) he has bounced around; he was released by the Rockies, signed with the Reds and came to the Royals off of waivers.  He was completely overmatched by starting pitchers the first time he faced them in a game, hitting .113 (7 for 62), but adjusted and competed well later in the game. 

              35.  Phil Ervin, Reds corner outfielder.   25 years old, 4 Win Shares, negative 0.4 WAR.  Expectation:  44 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.   A first-round draft pick with the Reds, he is the first player we have come to here who reached the end of his rookie year without being traded or released.   A right-handed hitter with kind of a fire plug body, short and powerful; he had a reasonable .324 on base percentage as a rookie, needs to do better but at least he is starting out on the right side of .300.   Hit .252 with 7 homers, 31 RBI.  Has some power and some speed, but hit in the .230s in the minor leagues for three years before seemingly figuring it out a little bit. 

              34.  Austin Slater, Giants outfielder-first baseman.  25 years old, 4 Win Shares and 0.2 WAR.  Expectation:  44 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.   Also had a reasonable .333 on base percentage as a rookie.  Played three years at Stanford, was drafted in the 8^th round by the Giants in 2014, and made the majors after just 357 minor league games—not a huge number—and with a .313 minor league batting average.   Has no speed and not a lot of power, so he has to hit .300 with a .350+ on base percentage to make it in majors.  He may be in the wrong park for the kind of player that he is.   I’d sort of compare him maybe to Jason Werth or Trey Mancini, meaning that is the kind of player he has to be if he is going to have a career. 

              33.  Greg Allen, Indians center fielder.  25 years old, 5 Win Shares and 0.4 WAR.   Expectation:  44 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.   Defensive Runs Saved shows him at -4 in center field, but he played absolutely fantastic defense against us, the Red Sox; I mean, scary good.   He was like Pillar was three or four years ago, just frustrating because you couldn’t make a ball hit the grass in the outfield no matter how you hit it.   Very fast; stole 21 bases in half a season.  A switch hitter, and a sixth round draft pick with the Indians.  Never hit .300 in the minors and doesn’t have power; he was only playing center for the Indians because several other guys were hurt.   He will have to hit a little more than he did as a rookie (.654 OPS), but given his speed and defense, he’ll be a regular for a few years if he can hit .270. 

              32.  David Bote, Cubs third baseman.   Hit .239 with 6 homers.  25 years old, 6 Win Shares and 1.0 WAR.   Expectation:  54 Win Shares in the Major Leagues.   Drafted by the Cubs in the 18^th round, he never had a big year in the minors but never failed a level, drifted steadily upward and played third for the Cubs while Bryant was hurt.  .727 OPS, 90 OPS+; needs to raise the OPS about 50 points to hang onto a regular job.   Has more power than speed, but doesn’t seem likely to hit 30 homers, either. 

              31.  Max Stassi, Astros catcher.   Has had trials with the Astros every year since 2013; finally got some actual playing time in 2018 and hit .226 with 8 homers.  Threw OK.   27 years old, 9 Win Shares and 1.0 WAR.  Seems likely to keep his playing time for a couple of years at least, and could develop into one of those catchers who has a 15-year career as a traveling backup.   Expectation:  55 Major League Win Shares.

              30.  Lewis Brinson, Marlins center fielder.  Played 109 games as a rookie due to the Marlins trading away all of their outfielders, but hit just .199 with a .577 OPS and negative WAR (-0.2).   24 years old and apparently fast enough to play center, but stole just two bases.  Hit .285 in the minor leagues but with some horrific strikeout rates.  A first-round draft pick by the Rangers, he was traded by the Rangers to Milwaukee and by Milwaukee to Florida, so at least he hasn’t been released yet.   Expectation:  56 Major League Win Shares. 

              29.  Victor Caratini, Cubs catcher.  A second-round draft pick of Atlanta, traded to Chicago in a minor deal.   A switch-hitting catcher who has hit for good averages in the minors but without power.  It might be overstating his speed to say that he has no speed.  24 years old, 2 Win Shares, negative WAR (-0.1).   Appears to be OK catcher, but would have to be Gold Glove quality to be a regular, and I don’t see it.  Expectation:  57 Major League Win Shares. 

              28.  Scott Kingery, Phillies shortstop.   A second-round draft pick in 2015, he was the Phils’ regular shortstop as a rookie but played bad on both sides of the ball, with negative O-War and D-War.  24 years old, 8 Win Shares, -1.5 WAR.    He has a little power, a little speed, a little defense and a lot of work to do, but might be able to save a career.   Expectation:  57 Major League Win Shares.

              27.   Renato Nunez, Orioles third baseman.   Another guy who has bounced around via the waiver wires, but played pretty well for Baltimore and ended the season in possession of a job.  Hit a respectable .258 with 8 homers in 236 at bats, .741 OPS and 103 OPS+.   He hit just .215 in his home park(s), no homers and OPS+ of 62, but hit .295 with 8 homers in road games, 140 OPS+.  The formula says that his Expectation is 57 Major League Win Shares, but intuitively I would put it quite a bit higher than that.  He’s got a job and he’s playing well and he’s only 24 years old; that’s a good foothold, although both Oakland and Texas put him on the waiver wires.  5 Win Shares, 1.3 WAR. 

              26.  Mitch Garver, Twins catcher.  A 27-year-old rookie who had a solid year with the bat but struggled behind the plate.  He hit .268 with 7 homers but had below-average numbers across the board as a fielder leading to an evaluation of -16 runs, half of that caused by poor pitch framing, although that might improve with experience.  11 Win Shares, 0.9 WAR.   Threw out only 18% of base stealers.   Minor league hitting numbers would suggest he may not stay at .268.  Still, in a universe of baseball teams desperate for catching, he’s not the bottom of the barrel.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  58.

              25.  Niko Goodrum, Tigers second baseman and utility player.  26 years old, 13 Win Shares, 1.5 WAR.  Kind of a Swiss Army Knife player, does a little bit of everything.   Has a little power, a little speed, not a horrible strikeout/walk ratio.  Switch hitter.  Drafted by the Twins in 2010, he served a full minor league apprenticeship with Minnesota and was signed by the Tigers as a free agent.  Played first base, second base, third, shortstop, left, right, DH, pinch hit and pinch ran.  In the minors he hit just .250 with just 42 homers in 674 games.  Expected Major League Win Shares: 59. 

              24.  Colin Moran, Pirates third baseman.   OK, we’re starting to pull away from the group a little bit here.   Moran, 25 years old, is a big left-handed third baseman who could be comparable to Travis Shaw.   Probably a pretty good hitter for a third baseman—he hit .277 as a rookie with 11 homers, 58 RBI, .747 OPS—but may be challenged defensively to stay at third.   He was NOT in clear possession of a job at the end of the year; the Pirates were experimenting with other third basemen.  He was a first-round draft pick of Miami, got traded to Houston and traded to Pittsburgh, so he hasn’t been released or on the waiver wires, as most of those listed above have.   13 Win Shares, 1.0 WAR.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  69.  Intuitively would go higher.

              23.  Victor Reyes, Tigers outfielder.  A tall switch hitter (6 foot 5) who can also run, was used 33 times as a pinch runner for the Tigers.  That was kind of the highlight of his season, as he didn’t hit a lick and didn’t impress in the field.   Hit .222 with 1 homer, .526 OPS, had 1 Win Share and negative .8 WAR.  Venezuela native, only 23 years old.   Projected Major League Win Shares:  70.   The projection of 70 is kind of the base line for a 23-year-old who is in the majors.   He didn’t really do anything impressive, but he is in the majors and he is only 23, so there is that. 

              22.  Dustin Fowler, A’s center fielder.   The Yankee super-prospect who had a devastating injury in 2017 before he got his first major league at bat.  He’s like Reyes; he didn’t actually do anything impressive as a rookie, but he is 23 years old and in the majors, so there is that.  3 Win Shares and Negative WAR (-0.9).  Hit .224 with 6 homers in 192 at bats, horrible strikeout/walk ratio.   Spent the second half of the season back in the minors, but did hit .341 for Nashville.  Hit a ton of triples in the minor leagues, 45 triples in 476 minor league games.   Will get another chance in the majors but needs to stop swinging at everything.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  70. 

              21.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers catcher-third baseman.  Another 23-year old; played better than Reyes or Fowler and should be a regular in 2019 with Adrian Beltre’s retirement, but will have to add something to be a long-term regular.   Hit .261 with a strikeout/walk ratio (62 to 28) that could become one of the better ones in the majors with experience.  Not swinging for the fences, runs well for a catcher but not fast.  Defensively he played well at third base, not well at catcher.    Hawaiian kid; hit ZERO home runs—none—in the minors in 2013 (41 games), 2014 (79 games), 2015 (98 games) and 2016 (121 games); 339 minor league games without a homer.   Finally started reaching the seats occasionally in 2017.  5 Win Shares in 2018, 1.6 WAR.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  70, but I think that is low. 

              20.  Ryan McMahon, Rockies infielder.  Left-handed hitting first baseman, also played some at second and third, and could compete for DJ LeMahieu’s second base job.  Never had a clear position in the minors; was always bouncing around the infield, more third base than anything else.  Played well in 10 games at second in 2018.  Didn’t do anything with the bat, but he’s 23 years old and in the majors with a team looking for a second baseman.   4 Win Shares and 0.1 WAR as a rookie.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  70.   .297 minor league batting average with a lot of doubles.

              19.  Joey Wendle, Rays.   A longtime minor leaguer, 28 years old, who got a chance to play with the Rays and really made the most of it, hitting .300 with a .789 OPS, 118 OPS+, 7 homers and 61 RBI.   Drafted by Cleveland in 2012, he was traded to the A’s and then to the Rays.   Had not hit .300 since he was in the low minors in 2012.  His 4.3 WAR as a rookie was the highest in the majors, beating both Ohtani (3.9 WAR) and Acuna (4.1), also beating the Yankees’ rookies. 

              We have all seen guys do this before, and we know how the story usually goes from there; in the second season usually the magic is gone.   But you never know; if he can play every year the way he played as a rookie, he’ll be around a long time.  19 Win Shares as a rookie.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  73. 

              18.  Ronald Guzman, Rangers first baseman.   BIG left-handed hitting first baseman, hit just .235 as a rookie with strikeout/walk ratio of 121 to 33, but the Rangers seemed to like him a lot.  Good glove at first base; athletic for a big fella.  16 homers, 9 Win Shares, 0.7 WAR.  Long arms.   Could be Chris Davis type; hopefully will figure out that there is more to the game than hitting homers.   Expected Major League Win Shares:  78. 

              17.  Jake Cave, Twins center fielder.  Traded by the Yankees to the Twins in spring training for an arm, just a minor league guy who throws hard, he had at least superficially a terrific rookie season for the Twins, hitting .265 with 13 homers, 45 runs scored and 54 RBI in just 283 at bats.  We credit him with 10 Win Shares, 1.5 WAR, and he was 25 years old.   On a closer look there are some issues; his strikeout to walk ratio was 102 to 18, his ball-in-play batting average was unsustainably high (.369), and he’s not really a center fielder; he was a guy playing center field because Byron Buxton was hurt.  Drafted by the Yankees in 2011, he didn’t find his power stroke until 2017.   Still, playing well is better than not playing well.   An illusion of a good season is much, much better than no illusion of a good season.   Left-handed hitter; he could be a Jay Bruce/Nick Swisher type of guy, at his best.   Not likely to be quite that good.  Expected Win Shares:  80. 

              16.  David Fletcher, Angels second baseman-third baseman.   Made his major league debut in mid-June and played almost every day until an injury ended his season in mid-September.   Finished at .275, played very well at second base.   Not fast and no power; just does everything pretty well pretty much all the time, or at least did so as a rookie.  No caught stealing, only 34 strikeouts, only one error at second base (43 games) and one at third base (33 games).  Doesn’t have enough power to be projected as a third baseman, but could be a six-year regular at second.   24 years old, 8 Win Shares, 2.0 WAR.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  81. 

              15.  Jorge Alfaro, Phillies’ catcher.   25 year old catcher, 12 Win Shares and 1.2 WAR.  Columbian national, signed by Texas and traded to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels trade.  Decent superficial batting numbers hide a wide array of problems.   He hit .262 with 10 homers, 37 RBI in 344 at bats, but struck out 138 times in 108 games with 18 walks.  His in-play batting average was over .400, which is obviously unsustainable.   He was hit by pitches 14 times, which helped his on base percentage; if it wasn’t for the hit batsmen, he would have had an in-play batting average over .400 but an on base percentage under .300, which would be quite a remarkable combination.   His major league batting average at this time (.270) is eight points higher than his minor league batting average, .262 in 634 minor league games.  Led National League catchers in Errors (11), Passed Balls (10), and Stolen Bases Allowed (59).  In spite of these things Baseball Info Solutions rates him as an average defensive catcher based on his pitch framing, but that seems pretty speculative to me.  He runs well for a catcher and is not a bad baserunner. 

              There is at least a temporary shortage of quality catchers around, and Alfaro would have to rank as one of the better catchers of 2018, in spite of which it seems very much in doubt as to whether he (a) can hold on to a job, and (b) is good enough defensively to be a guy who stays around as a backup.   I think his batting average is probably going to drop to the .220s.   Expected Major League Win Shares:  84. 

              14.  Harrison Bader, Cardinals outfielder, mostly center field.   A homegrown player from the 2015 draft, he has some power, some speed and no history of failure.  Finished sixth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.   Hit .364 as a rookie on balls in play; may not be able to sustain that.  The question about him is whether his pitch recognition will improve enough to offset his regression to the norm in BABIP.  Grounded into only one double play as a rookie, and he was usually hitting 7^th/8^th, which are spots where there are quite a few double plays.   24 years old, 13 Win Shares, 3.8 WAR as a rookie.  Expected Major League Win Shares:  97.

              13.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Blue Jays middle infielder.    The younger brother of Yuli Gurriel, he had a very good rookie season at bat but an absolutely terrible rookie season in the field and as a baserunner.  At bat he hit .281 with 11 homers in 249 at bats, although he struck out almost once a game and drew only 9 walks, but then, he’s a rookie; if you hit for power and average, that’s good.   In the field he was OK at second base (197 innings) but dreadful at shortstop, charting at negative 15 runs in 351 innings.   On the basepaths he scores at -10; that’s -10 bases, rather than -10 runs, but it’s still bad; he was below average at going first-to-third on a single, below average at scoring on a double, and really bad about running into outs on the bases.  24 years old, 8 Win Shares but 0.1 WAR.   Expected Major League Win Shares:  103.    Still has star potential, but has not proven that he belongs in the majors. 

              12.  Jake Bauers, Rays first baseman.   Only 22 years old, bats and throws left.  Kind of the opposite of Gurriel, he hit just .201 but actually wasn’t half bad.  His in-play batting average was just .254.  Over half of his hits were for extra bases (35 of 65) and his strikeout/walk ratio (104 to 54) was very good for a rookie in this era.  His secondary average was .368, meaning that he was producing runs despite the low batting average.  Defensively he was OK at first base, and played some in the outfield without embarrassing himself.   He’s probably lucky he is playing in the 21^st century.   Thirty years ago, that .201 batting average would have ended his career.   9 Win Shares, 0.6 WAR.   Expectation:  114 Major League Win Shares. 

              11.  Jeff McNeil, Mets second baseman.   I’m not saying he IS, but he LOOKS for all the world like the new Daniel Murphy.   26 years old, he was drafted in 2013 and hit .311 in the minor leagues with good strikeout/walk ratios, but was stalled several times by injuries.  Finally making the majors after the All-Star break in 2018, he hit .329 with a very good strikeout rate.  Runs well; he hit 6 triples in 63 games with the Mets and was 7-for-8 as a base stealer.  Left-handed bat.  For some reason his photo on Baseball Reference shows him wearing what looks like a Red Sox hat, which I don’t understand because he is from California and has never been in the Red Sox system.   Maybe it is a Binghamton hat; I don’t know.   Anyway, his ability to play second on a continuing basis is unproven and he is probably not really a .329 hitter, but then, that’s what we said about Wade Boggs when he came up; at this point the league has to prove that he ISN’T a .329 hitter.  

              I ran a Twitter poll about him, asking fans whether they thought McNeil was (a) a great player, (b) an All-Star, (c) a decent player, or (d) a washout.  7% said a great player, 12% an All Star, 67% a decent player, 14% a washout.   I’d probably take the high side of that bet.  11 Win Shares in 2018, 2.4 WAR.  Expectation:  114 Major League Win Shares. 

              10.  Willy Adames, Rays shortstop.   Just 22 years old, he struck out 95 times in 85 games but otherwise had a very impressive rookie season.   He hit .278, with 31 walks for a pretty good .348 on base percentage.   Hit 10 homers in 278 at bats.   Played OK at shortstop.  A Dominican player, big for a shortstop.  Originally signed by Detroit, he came to Tampa Bay as part of the David Price/Drew Smyly trade.  Played over 600 games in the minor leagues, which is a lot.   Drew as many as 77 walks in a minor league season, never struck out more than 132 times.   8 Win Shares as a rookie, 2.0 WAR.  May be a third baseman, rather than a shortstop, but he’s probably going to make a lot of money as a major league player.  Expectation:  115 Major League Win Shares. 

              9.  Franmil Reyes, Padres right fielder.   22 years old, he hit 16 homers in 261 at bats in the majors, covering up a pretty good array of flaws.   His strikeout/walk ratio was 80/24, which is not terrible by 2018 standards but not great, either.   He has NO speed, no triples and no stolen base attempts.   He played OK in the field; seems to have a right fielder’s arm, plays a deep right field.   Another Dominican, like Adames, who played a lot of minor league games (698) although he is still very young.  His major league batting average, .280, was higher than his minor league career average, .268.  In the face he looks quite a bit like John Mayberry, the Royals’ star of 40 years ago.   His ability to have a big major league career depends on his continuing to reach the seats regularly, and his home park (San Diego) is not going to help him with that.   8 Win Shares as a rookie, 1.6 WAR.   Expectation:  122 Major League Win Shares.  Intuitively I would much rather have Adames than Reyes. 

              8.  Yairo Munoz, Cardinals shortstop/utility player.  Another Dominican, 23 years old, 2018 performance comparable to Adames but a hair better with the bat in 2018.   His season was a surprise; he came to the Cardinals from the A’s in the Piscotty deal, and generally played better with the Cardinals than he had in the minors.  Hit .276 with 8 homers, 42 RBI, decent strikeout/walk ratio giving him a nice .350 on base percentage.  Played second base, third base, short and all three outfield positions.  At shortstop he was fair on double plays, completing 25 in 42 opportunities, but had a lot of trouble with plays in the hole; overall he was negative 7 runs as a shortstop, so he may not be a shortstop.  His major league batting average (.276) was better than his minor league average (.268), and also his strikeout/walk ratio was better in the majors, which may indicate actual learning or unsustainable performance.   11 Win Shares but 0.2 WAR as a rookie.   Expectation:  126 Major League Win Shares.  I would take the low side of that, but I think that when he finds his defensive position he’s probably going to have a regular job for several years. 

              7.  Jesse Winker Wanker, Reds corner outfielder.   24 years old but had a .405 on base percentage (!!!) as a rookie, hitting .299 with 49 walks, 46 strikeouts.   Good minor league hitting record, also had on base percentages consistently around .400 in the minor leagues.   Major league hitting record was completely consistent with his minor league numbers.   Doesn’t have a ton of power, but should hit 15-20 homers in a full season.   Left-handed bat. 

              In the field. . .well, that’s an issue.  He really can’t play right field, although he was out there in 2018, and he may not be able to play left field passably.  He may be a DH.   He is not fast and not a good baserunner.  But his bat looks terrific.   12 Win Shares but negative WAR (-0.1) due to poor fielding performance.  Expectation:  135 Major League Win Shares.  Edgar Martinez syndrome.  His true value probably won’t emerge until his teams accept his defensive limitations. 

              6.  Brian Anderson, Marlins third baseman/right fielder.  Played third base for the Marlins until April 25, moved to right field in late April but moved back to third base on August 15.  One way or another he was in the lineup all year, and led all major league rookies in Win Shares, with 27, and was close to the lead in WAR, with 3.9.  He hit .367 with runners in scoring position (44/120), and .337 in the late innings of close games. He played very well in right field, battled third base to a draw, but at this point should probably be considered a third baseman.   Had easily more playing time than any other major league rookie.  He had a good strikeout/walk ratio by modern standards (129/62), and was hit by pitches 16 times (5^th in the league), giving him a pretty good .357 on base percentage with his .273 average.  He is 25 years old, a right-handed hitter and not fast, but not painfully slow at this point.   Minor league batting average was just .264.   Does not project as a star at this time, but should add value to his teams for several years.   Expectation:  176 Major League Win Shares.  

              5.  Miguel Andujar, Yankees third baseman.   23 years old, 21 Win Shares and 2.2 WAR.  Intuitively, I like him a lot, maybe more than two of the four guys listed ahead of him.  His "value" as a rookie was sharply reduced by his team playing him at third base.  He’s obviously not a third baseman and basically he stunk at third base, but I think he’s probably one of the 2-3 best hitters of the next ten years, more valuable as a hitter than his team’s superstars, looking forward.  His strikeout/walk ratio (97-25) is not good, but (a) 97 strikeouts is a LOW number in modern baseball, given his at bats, and (b) I’m betting on the walks to double within three years, giving him a better-than-league strikeout/walk ratio.   He’s a scary hitter.  He can do a lot of different things with a lot of different pitches. 

              In the original articles in this series, we saw a large number of players who under-achieved as rookies because their teams were trying to play them at third base and they weren’t third basemen; it was a theme of the series.  Steve Garvey, Paul Konerko, Tony Perez, etc.   Teams are always trying to make a young player into a third baseman when he isn’t.  Miggy wasn’t on that list, but they tried him as a third baseman for several years, and also Pujols.  I’m not saying that Andujar is as good as Cabrera or Pujols, but there’s a lot of similarity.  He’s going to lead the league in RBI several times.   Expected Major League Win Shares:  201.   And I’m taking the over. 

              4.  Shohei Ohtani, Angels first baseman.  23 years old, 20 Win Shares including 4 as a pitcher, 3.9 WAR.  The biggest thing that people miss about this story is that it is actually not that unusual for a player to have ability both as a pitcher and a position player.   There are actually a substantial number of players who could make it either way.   Brandon Belt could have been a major league pitcher, and Mark McGwire could have.  Andrelton Simmons could have.  Certainly Zack Greinke could have been a major league position player, and probably Madison Bumgarner could have.  Rick Ankiel has done both.  There are a lot of guys in the majors who could have gone the other direction and succeeded.  A lot of what it takes to be successful one way is just as relevant the other way—the love of the game, the dedication to training habits, the deep understanding of the game, the persistence and the ability to work through obstacles.   You draft one or two players every year who might be a pitcher or might be a position player, and you just have to decide which way you’re going with him. 

              What is unusual about Ohtani is not that he has that ability as much as it is that the issue has been left up in the air all of these years.  The Japanese, as you probably know, are pretty much obsessed with high school baseball.  Almost every Japanese boy goes out for the high school baseball team and is on a team of some level, the teams train 365 days a year—literally—and some high school baseball games are televised nationally with huge audiences.   Because of this unusual interest in high school baseball; I shouldn’t say it is unusual, it is just not American.   Because of this interest in high school baseball, Ohtani came out of high school as a superstar, and went into the Japanese major leagues with this issue of whether he was a pitcher or a hitter unresolved.  He did a little of both, was pretty good each way, and when he came to the majors he was in position to, and did, insist on doing both. 

              Well, OK, I’m not complaining about it, but when we acquire a player in the majors through normal channels, we have to make a decision with which way we are going with him.  Of course you listen to what the player wants to do, and of course you have respect for his input, but it’s not his decision; it’s the team’s decision.   The team ultimately tells the player "You’re a pitcher" or "you’re a shortstop."  This may seem harsh, but think about it:  do YOU have the opportunity to pitch in the majors?  Do YOU have the opportunity to play shortstop?"  No, you don’t, because it is the team’s decision whether to extend that opportunity to you or not, and for 99.99% of you, we don’t.   The exceptional player is extended one opportunity or the other, not both. 

              We don’t give players the opportunity to do both, because we generally believe that it’s not workable.  It is a fulltime job requiring tremendous dedication to do either one.   It’s not reasonable to try to do both.  

              So, is it reasonable for Ohtani?  No, not really; not in my opinion.   You can talk about it all you want to, you can hold off making a decision as long as you want to, but ultimately, he is one or the other, and if he tries to do both he’ll have half of a career.  He’ll wind up as Rick Ankiel.  

              This analytical system that I am using here is set up to deal with position players, not pitchers, and including Ohtani in it is awkward.  The system is based on Win Shares, and he does get credit here for his Win Shares as a pitcher, but the Win Shares are adjusted to 145 game equivalents, so we are in effect adjusting his pitching Win Shares to a full-time everyday schedule, which is logically questionable.   But the result, the scoring for Ohtani, seems reasonable enough, so I’m OK with it.  Expectation: 302 Major League Win Shares.  

              3.  Juan Soto, Nationals outfielder.  19 years old, 15 Win Shares, 3.0 WAR.   Drew 79 walks in 116 games, giving him a .406 on base percentage as a rookie.   Possibly the greatest 19-year-old hitter of all time; only Mel Ott and Tony Conigliaro would be comparable.  Didn’t turn 20 until after the season ended.  Expectation:  336 Major League Win Shares. 

              2.  Gleyber Torres, Yankees Second Baseman.   21 years old, 19 Win Shares, 2.9 WAR.   Bat faded badly the second half of the season, but that’s probably a normal rookie fatigue thing, plus he had an injury in July, a hip strain that put him down for a couple of weeks.   Hit .495 when he pulled the ball, only .254 when he hit to the opposite field.  Expectation:  344 Major League Win Shares.

1.        Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves left fielder.   20 years old, 19 Win Shares, 4.1 WAR.   It is

certainly unusual to have two young left fielders in a league of the quality of Soto and Acuna.  Comparing the two, Soto is ten months younger and far ahead in terms of command of the strike zone.  Acuna is much faster, but Soto actually was a better baserunner, as a rookie.   Acuna was 12 for 28 going first-to-third on a single, 43%; Soto was 13-for-29, almost the same, but Acuna ran into 8 outs on the bases, whereas Soto ran into only 3.  Acuna has more power; Soto hit 22 homers and 30 long fly outs; Acuna hit 26 homers but also 49 long fly outs.   Soto has a better arm, and Acuna made 5 errors in the outfield compared to Soto’s two, but Acuna has better range relative to the opportunities.  Soto being a left-handed hitter could be a big advantage over time.  Although their listed weights are almost the same, Soto looks heavier in the legs, and one would guess that in a few years he will be significantly slower.   Basically, Acuna ranks a little ahead of Soto because he had almost the same OPS and better defense in a tougher park for a hitter, but in all honesty I think I would choose Soto.   Expected Major League Win Shares for Acuna:  440.   The three players in the 2018 rookie class most likely to have a Hall of Fame career are Acuna, Soto and Gleyber Torres.