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The World’s Number One Starting Pitcher

By Bill James

April 2, 2012

Sometime last season I proposed a system for ranking Starting Pitchers. We could call it Tennis Envy. I envy tennis—and golf—their systems of continuously updated player rankings: that is, I envy them the fact that they can state with confidence and unanimity who is the number one tennis player or golf fiend in the world at any moment, and who is second, and third, and so on. I hope that we can skip now the reasons for not applying this willy-nilly to everything in baseball, second basemen and relief pitchers, since we have now been through those discussions several times, and stick to applying such a system where it will work in baseball, which is with regard to starting pitchers.

I hope to present to you regularly here the World’s Number One Starting Pitcher rankings. I will warn you that

1) I am trying to do this manually, rather than having hired somebody to automate the process, and

2) I am notoriously disorganized about projects like this, so I may not get this updated as regularly as I would like.

But anyway, as of the start of this season, the World’s Number One Starting Pitcher is Justin Verlander. You might say, "Duh", but actually it’s as close it could possibly be; two more strikeouts and one less run allowed in a post-season game, and the World’s Number One Starting Pitcher would be Roy Halladay. The two are so close that, unless one of them starts poorly early in the year, Verlander and Halladay are likely to swap positions in the rankings several times before one (or somebody else) pulls clearly ahead. As of March 28, the rankings were as follows:

Rank	First	Last	Score
1	Justin	Verlander	564.9
2	Roy	Halladay	564.2
3	Cliff	Lee	552.2
4	Clayton	Kershaw	547.2
5	Cole	Hamels	531.9
6	Jered	Weaver	524.2
7	C.C.	Sabathia	520.7
8	Tim	Lincecum	509.5
9	Felix	Hernandez	506.7
10	Matt	Cain	505.9
11	Jon	Lester	503.5
12	C.J.	Wilson	497.5
13	Ian	Kennedy	497.3
14	Dan	Haren	495.1
15	Chris	Carpenter	493.2
16	Ricky	Romero	491.5
17	Yovani	Gallardo	490.3
18	James	Shields	487.6
19	Josh	Beckett	480.1
20	Ted	Lilly	480.0
21	Zack	Greinke	479.2
22	Colby	Lewis	478.5
23	Ubaldo	Jimenez	476.5
24	David	Price	476.3
25	Tim	Hudson	475.3
26	Wandy	Rodriguez	468.3
27	Javier	Vazquez	467.7
28	Hiroki	Kuroda	465.3
29	Ervin	Santana	463.9
30	Gio	Gonzalez	463.2
31	Matt	Garza	460.6
32	Doug	Fister	458.8
33	Johnny	Cueto	458.1
34	Max	Scherzer	457.4
35	Mat	Latos	457.0
36	Roy	Oswalt	456.1
37	Gavin	Floyd	454.0
38	Randy	Wolf	451.1
39	Daniel	Hudson	444.2
40	Shaun	Marcum	443.7
41	Jhoulys	Chacin	443.7
42	Anibal	Sanchez	443.3
43	Madison	Bumgarner	442.6
44	John	Danks	442.2
45	Edwin	Jackson	441.6
46	Derek	Holland	439.3
47	R.A.	Dickey	435.8
48	Mark	Buehrle	434.5
49	Brett	Myers	433.3
50	Chad	Billingsley	432.9
51	Joe	Saunders	432.3
52	Ryan	Dempster	431.3
53	Tommy	Hanson	429.1
54	Trevor	Cahill	425.2
55	Jeremy	Guthrie	424.9
56	Bronson	Arroyo	423.5
57	Brandon	Morrow	423.2
58	Jaime	Garcia	422.0
59	Justin	Masterson	421.5
60	A.J.	Burnett	421.1
61	Jair	Jurrjens	420.3
62	Matt	Harrison	417.8
63	Scott	Baker	417.2
64	Jonathan	Sanchez	413.3
65	Alexi	Ogando	411.2
66	Bud	Norris	410.5
67	Jeremy	Hellickson	409.4
68	John	Lannan	407.2
69	Carl	Pavano	406.3
70	Rick	Porcello	404.3
71	Ricky	Nolasco	403.5
72	Jeff	Niemann	402.5
73	Derek	Lowe	401.4
74	Jason	Hammel	400.4
75	Freddy	Garcia	400.4
76	Jason	Vargas	399.3
77	Bruce	Chen	399.3
78	Michael	Pineda	398.6
79	Francisco	Liriano	398.5
80	Chris	Narveson	397.1
81	John	Lackey	394.7
82	Luke	Hochevar	393.4
83	Josh	Collmenter	392.5
84	Livan	Hernandez	392.2
85	Mike	Leake	391.4
86	Brandon	McCarthy	390.7
87	Kyle	Lohse	389.6
88	Paul	Maholm	389.6
89	Mike	Pelfrey	389.5
90	Randy	Wells	389.4
91	Wade	Davis	388.3
92	Brandon	Beachy	388.1
93	Jordan	Zimmermann	387.9
94	Jake	Westbrook	386.5
95	Ryan	Vogelsong	385.5
96	Fausto	Carmona	385.5
97	Chris	Volstad	385.1
98	Ivan	Nova	385.1
99	Homer	Bailey	384.1
100	Aaron	Harang	382.8
101	Carlos	Zambrano	381.2
102	Philip	Humber	380.5
103	J.A.	Happ	379.7
104	James	McDonald	379.5
105	Brett	Cecil	375.9
106	Erik	Bedard	372.0
107	Tim	Stauffer	370.3
108	Chris	Capuano	370.1
109	Vance	Worley	369.5
110	Josh	Tomlin	368.3
111	Guillermo	Moscoso	367.0
112	Jonathon	Niese	366.2
113	Bartolo	Colon	366.2
114	Jeff	Karstens	365.0
115	Josh	Johnson	361.2
116	Joel	Pineiro	360.2
117	Charlie	Morton	359.5
118	Jeff	Francis	358.9
119	Phil	Hughes	358.9
120	Clay	Buchholz	357.7
121	Cory	Luebke	355.9
122	Joe	Blanton	355.2
123	Tim	Wakefield	353.4
124	Kyle	Kendrick	351.8
125	Dillon	Gee	348.3
126	Nick	Blackburn	347.8
127	Felipe	Paulino	346.3
128	Kevin	Correia	345.0
129	Brian	Duensing	343.8
130	Jason	Marquis	342.1
131	Barry	Zito	340.1
132	Rich	Harden	340.0
133	Jake	Peavy	338.8
134	Zachary	Britton	338.4
135	Travis	Wood	334.8
136	Brad	Penny	329.0
137	Edinson	Volquez	328.3
138	Clayton	Richard	322.6
139	Henderson	Alvarez	322.3
140	Blake	Beavan	321.8
141	Danny	Duffy	320.5
142	Aaron	Cook	320.4
143	Mike	Minor	319.8
144	Jorge	de la Rosa	319.3
145	Rodrigo	Lopez	318.1
146	Alfredo	Simon	317.1
147	Jake	Arrieta	316.0
148	Wade	LeBlanc	314.6
149	Tom	Gorzelanny	313.1
150	Tyler	Chatwood	312.8
151	Kevin	Millwood	312.5
152	Jo-Jo	Reyes	311.6
153	Carlos	Carrasco	311.5
154	Ross	Detwiler	311.3
155	Dontrelle	Willis	310.5
156	Ross	Ohlendorf	309.8
157	Chien-Ming	Wang	308.4
158	Juan	Nicasio	307.3
159	Jordan	Lyles	302.8
160	Stephen	Strasburg	302.7
161	Brad	Hand	301.8
162	Jerome	Williams	300.6
T 163	All	Others	300.0

I explained how these rankings are derived sometime last fall; the only thing I have changed is that I changed the time period until "long term inactivity penalties" kick in from 180 days to 210 days, since a good many pitchers each year are just not quite ready to start the season on time. Now, of course, we have had two games, which changes the rankings a little bit. Felix Hernandez has moved from 9^th in the rankings to 8^th, ahead of Tim Lincecum. As of April 4 the updated rankings will be:

Rank	First	Last	Score
1	Justin	Verlander	563.1
2	Roy	Halladay	562.4
3	Cliff	Lee	550.5
4	Clayton	Kershaw	545.5
5	Cole	Hamels	530.2
6	Jered	Weaver	522.4
7	C.C.	Sabathia	518.9
8	Felix	Hernandez	513.4
9	Tim	Lincecum	507.8
10	Matt	Cain	504.1
11	Jon	Lester	501.8
12	C.J.	Wilson	495.7
13	Ian	Kennedy	495.6
14	Dan	Haren	493.4
15	Chris	Carpenter	491.4
16	Ricky	Romero	489.8
17	Yovani	Gallardo	488.6
18	James	Shields	485.9
19	Josh	Beckett	478.3
20	Ted	Lilly	478.2
21	Zack	Greinke	477.4
22	Colby	Lewis	476.7
23	Ubaldo	Jimenez	474.7
24	David	Price	474.5
25	Tim	Hudson	473.6
26	Wandy	Rodriguez	466.6
27	Javier	Vazquez	465.9
28	Hiroki	Kuroda	463.6
29	Ervin	Santana	462.2
30	Gio	Gonzalez	461.5
31	Matt	Garza	458.9
32	Doug	Fister	457.1
33	Johnny	Cueto	456.4
34	Max	Scherzer	455.6
35	Mat	Latos	455.3
36	Roy	Oswalt	454.4
37	Gavin	Floyd	452.2
38	Randy	Wolf	449.4
39	Daniel	Hudson	442.5
40	Shaun	Marcum	442.0
41	Jhoulys	Chacin	441.9
42	Anibal	Sanchez	441.5
43	Madison	Bumgarner	440.9
44	John	Danks	440.4
45	Edwin	Jackson	439.8
46	Derek	Holland	437.6
47	R.A.	Dickey	434.1
48	Mark	Buehrle	432.8
49	Brett	Myers	431.6
50	Chad	Billingsley	431.2
51	Joe	Saunders	430.5
52	Ryan	Dempster	429.6
53	Trevor	Cahill	423.4
54	Jeremy	Guthrie	423.1
55	Tommy	Hanson	422.8
56	Bronson	Arroyo	421.7
57	Brandon	Morrow	421.4
58	Jaime	Garcia	420.2
59	Justin	Masterson	419.8
60	A.J.	Burnett	419.3
61	Jair	Jurrjens	417.8
62	Matt	Harrison	416.0
63	Scott	Baker	410.9
64	Alexi	Ogando	409.5
65	Bud	Norris	408.8
66	Jeremy	Hellickson	407.7
67	Jonathan	Sanchez	407.0
68	Jason	Vargas	406.9
69	John	Lannan	405.4
70	Carl	Pavano	404.6
71	Rick	Porcello	402.5
72	Ricky	Nolasco	401.7
73	Jeff	Niemann	400.8
74	Derek	Lowe	399.6
75	Jason	Hammel	398.7
76	Freddy	Garcia	398.7
77	Brandon	McCarthy	397.9
78	Bruce	Chen	397.5
79	Michael	Pineda	396.9
80	Chris	Narveson	395.3
81	John	Lackey	392.9
82	Francisco	Liriano	392.3
83	Luke	Hochevar	391.6
84	Josh	Collmenter	390.7
85	Livan	Hernandez	390.5
86	Mike	Leake	389.7
87	Kyle	Lohse	387.9
88	Mike	Pelfrey	387.7
89	Randy	Wells	387.6
90	Wade	Davis	386.6
91	Brandon	Beachy	386.4
92	Jake	Westbrook	384.7
93	Jordan	Zimmermann	383.9
94	Ryan	Vogelsong	383.8
95	Fausto	Carmona	383.7
96	Chris	Volstad	383.4
97	Ivan	Nova	383.4
98	Paul	Maholm	383.4
99	Homer	Bailey	382.4
100	Aaron	Harang	381.0
101	Philip	Humber	378.8
102	Bartolo	Colon	378.0
103	J.A.	Happ	377.9
104	James	McDonald	377.7
105	Carlos	Zambrano	374.9
106	Brett	Cecil	374.1
107	Erik	Bedard	370.3
108	Tim	Stauffer	368.5
109	Chris	Capuano	368.3
110	Vance	Worley	367.8
111	Guillermo	Moscoso	365.2
112	Jeff	Karstens	363.2
113	Josh	Tomlin	362.1
114	Jonathon	Niese	360.0
115	Joel	Pineiro	358.4
116	Charlie	Morton	357.8
117	Jeff	Francis	357.2
118	Phil	Hughes	357.1
119	Josh	Johnson	354.9
120	Cory	Luebke	354.2
121	Joe	Blanton	353.5
122	Tim	Wakefield	351.6
123	Clay	Buchholz	351.4
124	Kyle	Kendrick	350.1
125	Dillon	Gee	346.5
126	Felipe	Paulino	344.5
127	Brian	Duensing	342.1
128	Nick	Blackburn	341.5
129	Kevin	Correia	338.8
130	Rich	Harden	338.3
131	Jake	Peavy	337.0
132	Zachary	Britton	336.7
133	Jason	Marquis	335.8
134	Barry	Zito	333.8
135	Travis	Wood	333.1
136	Brad	Penny	327.3
137	Edinson	Volquez	326.5
138	Henderson	Alvarez	320.5
139	Blake	Beavan	320.0
140	Danny	Duffy	318.7
141	Aaron	Cook	318.6
142	Mike	Minor	318.0
143	Rodrigo	Lopez	316.4
144	Clayton	Richard	316.4
145	Alfredo	Simon	315.3
146	Jorge	de la Rosa	313.1
147	Wade	LeBlanc	312.9
148	Tyler	Chatwood	311.1
149	Kevin	Millwood	310.8
150	Jo-Jo	Reyes	309.8
151	Jake	Arrieta	309.7
152	Ross	Detwiler	309.6
153	Dontrelle	Willis	308.8
154	Ross	Ohlendorf	308.1
155	Tom	Gorzelanny	306.8
156	Chien-Ming	Wang	306.7
157	Carlos	Carrasco	305.2
158	Juan	Nicasio	301.1
159	Stephen	Strasburg	300.9
160	Brad	Hand	300.0
T 161	All	Others	300.0

I highlighted the new rankings of the starting pitchers who have worked so far, and Jerome Williams and Jordan Lyles have dropped out of the rankings in the last week. Some of you will, of course, want to argue with me about some of the rankings; this is the nature and purpose of doing rankings. But I’m not going to respond to any arguments right away; we’ll give it a little time so you can see how the system works, and then we’ll talk about it. Thanks.

Bill James

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

doncoffin
The system is here:
www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/
3:16 PM Apr 3rd

bjames
Also, I see I mis-stated something. I said that I didn't change anything except the time frame for long-term inactivity penalties, but actually I did. I also park-adjusted the numbers; in the article referenced the Game Scores weren't park-adjusted, but I did now.

Hope I didn't forget anything else. . .I did this work in January and didn't write it up until early April, so I may have spaced out on something else.
11:29 AM Apr 3rd

bjames
It is certainly possible for a pitcher to reach the top 30 in the majors in one good season, but it does require a very good season.
11:26 AM Apr 3rd

matawith1t
Here are the composite rankings for each team:

Phillies 2364.4
Angels 2273.7
Brewers 2252.7
Dodgers 2204.2
Dbacks 2182.7
Tigers 2178.3
Giants 2170.4
Yankees 2161.5
Rays 2155.5
Reds 2105.5
Braves 2091.1
Indians 2062.5
Red Sox 2043
Cubs 2042.9
Rangers 2039.8
Marlins 2005.8
Nationals 2000.2
Astros 1984.9
White Sox 1908.4
Blue Jays 1905.8
Cardinals 1899.5
Twins 1891.4
Pirates 1888.3
Royals 1859.3
Mariners 1851.1
Mets 1828.3
A's 1675.9
Orioles 1669.2
Padres 1665.6
Rockies 1543.3

These are solely based on the top 5 players for each team on the list. So Strasburg does not count towards the Nationals count and Brett Myers counts towards the Astros count. If a team had less than 5 players on the list the remaining rotation spots were filled with "300" rated players.
2:16 AM Apr 3rd

krgrecw
Bill, If Strasburg has the year he's capable of having how high can he possibly end up? You have him at #159 now. Could he need up top 30?
12:00 AM Apr 3rd

The World’s Number One Starting Pitcher

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